2021 MLB draft

[jacksonianmarch]

Figured I’d start this early. With the Sox picking at 4, you’ve got a chance at a top end talent. Looks like Leiter and Rocker will be off the board. They’re both so damn dynamic. Both of them have ERA’s under 0.5

[mvp 78]

The other top prospects according to MLB:

 

2. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Dallas Jesuit HS (TX)

The most commonly used comparison with Lawlar is to Bobby Witt Jr., a fellow Texan who was drafted second by the Royals in 2019. As with Witt, Lawler's upside should obscure his relative seniority (he'll turn 19 before the draft). He has the requisite hands, arm strength, and footwork to remain at the shortstop position for the long haul. At the plate, he marries a quick bat with a frame that bodes well for future plus power. Lawlar's boosters believe he could possess five tools that grade as above-average or better at his peak, making him a regular (and plausible All-Star) at a premium position. It's a strong year for high-school shortstops, and Lawlar currently looks like the best of the bunch.

 

3. Jud Fabian, OF, Florida

The most curious aspect of Fabian's game is that he bats righty and throws left; he's a "wrong-way guy" in scouting parlance. Whether it's a coincidence borne from a small sample, or a product of a deemphasized dominant hand, history hasn't been kind to the profile. Rickey Henderson was one; Ryan Ludwick and Cody Ross were, too. After them, you have to stretch to find a recent, decent career from a wrong-way outfielder -- and that's the replacement-level brigade of Guillermo Heredia, Collin Cowgill, and Joey Rickard. Rest assured, Fabian seems likelier to join Ludwick and Ross' tier. His relative youth (20 until September) and his track record of hitting the ball hard against SEC-quality competition should endear him to model-guided teams. Fabian has whiffed in more than a quarter of his trips to the plate (including a stint in the Cape Cod League), though some scouts believe he'll get the strikeouts under control as he slows down the game. He'll likely begin his pro career playing center field, but his lack of plus foot speed could force him into a corner before long. The most probable outcome, then, has Fabian turn into a solid regular whose power represents his only plus tool.

 

Maybe Jaden Hill shows enough to be taken at 4? If it wasn't for Leiter/Rocker, he'd be the consensus best pitcher in the draft.

[notin]

The other top prospects according to MLB:

 

2. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Dallas Jesuit HS (TX)

The most commonly used comparison with Lawlar is to Bobby Witt Jr., a fellow Texan who was drafted second by the Royals in 2019. As with Witt, Lawler's upside should obscure his relative seniority (he'll turn 19 before the draft). He has the requisite hands, arm strength, and footwork to remain at the shortstop position for the long haul. At the plate, he marries a quick bat with a frame that bodes well for future plus power. Lawlar's boosters believe he could possess five tools that grade as above-average or better at his peak, making him a regular (and plausible All-Star) at a premium position. It's a strong year for high-school shortstops, and Lawlar currently looks like the best of the bunch.

 

3. Jud Fabian, OF, Florida

The most curious aspect of Fabian's game is that he bats righty and throws left; he's a "wrong-way guy" in scouting parlance. Whether it's a coincidence borne from a small sample, or a product of a deemphasized dominant hand, history hasn't been kind to the profile. Rickey Henderson was one; Ryan Ludwick and Cody Ross were, too. After them, you have to stretch to find a recent, decent career from a wrong-way outfielder -- and that's the replacement-level brigade of Guillermo Heredia, Collin Cowgill, and Joey Rickard. Rest assured, Fabian seems likelier to join Ludwick and Ross' tier. His relative youth (20 until September) and his track record of hitting the ball hard against SEC-quality competition should endear him to model-guided teams. Fabian has whiffed in more than a quarter of his trips to the plate (including a stint in the Cape Cod League), though some scouts believe he'll get the strikeouts under control as he slows down the game. He'll likely begin his pro career playing center field, but his lack of plus foot speed could force him into a corner before long. The most probable outcome, then, has Fabian turn into a solid regular whose power represents his only plus tool.

 

Maybe Jaden Hill shows enough to be taken at 4? If it wasn't for Leiter/Rocker, he'd be the consensus best pitcher in the draft.

 

Apparently multiple sites have Ty Madden (Texas) ahead of Hill....

[Bellhorn04]

Me want pitcher!

[mvp 78]

Me want pitcher!

 

I just want Chaim to take the best available. If that's a HS SS, so be it.

[notin]

I just want Chaim to take the best available. If that's a HS SS, so be it.

 

I’d like a pitcher for obvious reasons, but Bloom has rapidly earned some trust. His “reach” to grab Nick Yorke is already getting positive reviews...

[jacksonianmarch]

I’d like a pitcher for obvious reasons, but Bloom has rapidly earned some trust. His “reach” to grab Nick Yorke is already getting positive reviews...

 

The crazy thing about the MLB draft is that there is no possible way to see if the talent will hold up against professional competition. Nothing simulates it. The Cape Cod league, maybe, but that's an intro to wood bat for the hitters and typically turns into a pitcher's league. It is crazy stupid that D1 baseball isn't using wood (I get the costs, but we made the move in our D2 league back in 03). If D1 made the move, then you could actually see what these hitters are made of. I am also not a big fan of grabbing toolsy guys whose bats are behind the rest of their package. The hardest thing to do in sports is to hit a baseball, and if their hitting skill is behind, then they arent likely to catch up. Yorke very well may end up being good, but with his lack of competition and his inclusion only at the alternate site, you are getting spin from the sox, as they're the only ones who have seen him. I am seeing the same drivel from the Yanks on Austin Wells. He's so advanced, great hitter, strong as an ox, looks like he can stay behind the dish. Blah, blah blah. No scouts have seen him and he hasnt been playing against pro competition. I will believe it when I see it

[mvp 78]

The crazy thing about the MLB draft is that there is no possible way to see if the talent will hold up against professional competition. Nothing simulates it. The Cape Cod league, maybe, but that's an intro to wood bat for the hitters and typically turns into a pitcher's league. It is crazy stupid that D1 baseball isn't using wood (I get the costs, but we made the move in our D2 league back in 03). If D1 made the move, then you could actually see what these hitters are made of. I am also not a big fan of grabbing toolsy guys whose bats are behind the rest of their package. The hardest thing to do in sports is to hit a baseball, and if their hitting skill is behind, then they arent likely to catch up. Yorke very well may end up being good, but with his lack of competition and his inclusion only at the alternate site, you are getting spin from the sox, as they're the only ones who have seen him. I am seeing the same drivel from the Yanks on Austin Wells. He's so advanced, great hitter, strong as an ox, looks like he can stay behind the dish. Blah, blah blah. No scouts have seen him and he hasnt been playing against pro competition. I will believe it when I see it

 

With how much money the D1 schools have, switching to wood bats would be a drop in the bucket.

[mvp 78]

Also, aluminum bats now go for $400+. The cost savings just really isn't there anymore.

[mvp 78]

https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1374715707427000322

 

Pitching ninja on Jaden Hill's changeup.

[notin]

Also, aluminum bats now go for $400+. The cost savings just really isn't there anymore.

 

They probably should switch just for the safety factor. As long as they do not go to the fragile maple bats, which are incredibly dangerous...

[mvp 78]

They probably should switch just for the safety factor. As long as they do not go to the fragile maple bats, which are incredibly dangerous...

 

I agree with that 100%.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If I'm the Sox picking #4 -- assuming the two Vandy aces are off the board -- I'm leaning towards Jud Fabian from U of Florida. Fabian is hitting home runs and robbing home runs in Division I... further along in development and closer to the majors than maybe a high school shortstop, which may be attractive to a rebuilding team in need of top outfield talent.

[notin]

If I'm the Sox picking #4 -- assuming the two Vandy aces are off the board -- I'm leaning towards Jud Fabian from U of Florida. Fabian is hitting home runs and robbing home runs in Division I... further along in development and closer to the majors than maybe a high school shortstop, which may be attractive to a rebuilding team in need of top outfield talent.

 

And from the same school that gave us Brian Johnson!!

[notin]

If I'm the Sox picking #4 -- assuming the two Vandy aces are off the board -- I'm leaning towards Jud Fabian from U of Florida. Fabian is hitting home runs and robbing home runs in Division I... further along in development and closer to the majors than maybe a high school shortstop, which may be attractive to a rebuilding team in need of top outfield talent.

 

MLB.com does have the Sox taking Fabian, but passing on Leiter. (This is from December with no updates.)

Propectlive.com has the Sox taking high school SS Marcelo Mayer in the March update.

Fueledbysports.com has the Sox taking UCLA shortstop Matt McLain. He is the first position player taken in their draft.

MyMLBdraft.com has the Sox taking McLain, Their draft strongly parallels fueledbysports (and might be the same; I am not verifying.)

MVPsportstalk.com has the Sox taking Jack Leiter.

[notin]

So in notin's mini-mock draft, the picks are

 

1. Pitt takes Kumar Rocker

2. Texas takes Jack Leiter

3. Detroit takes Jud Fabian.

 

Since these see to be the three names everyone would like the Sox to take, I am going to assume MLB GMs feel the same about them and they will all be off the board..

 

So who should Boston take?

[moonslav59]

So in notin's mini-mock draft, the picks are

 

1. Pitt takes Kumar Rocker

2. Texas takes Jack Leiter

3. Detroit takes Jud Fabian.

 

Since these see to be the three names everyone would like the Sox to take, I am going to assume MLB GMs feel the same about them and they will all be off the board..

 

So who should Boston take?

 

The thing is, the top 3 picks are hardly ever the 3 names you'd expect them to be, so I'd put the odds at 100:1 one of the 3 listed will be available when the Sox pick 4th.

 

That being said, I'll play along.

 

I'd pick Jaden Hill SP LSU (6-4 215).

 

I'd avoid HS players, right now, as I'm thinking we want to make a strong push in 2-4 years.

 

According to a bunch of mock drafts, these are some names I see often:

 

College

Adrian Del Castillo C Miami

Matt McLain SS UCLA

Kahlil Watson SS Wake Forest

Gunner Hoglund RHP Miss

Henry Davis C Louisville

Sale Frelick OF BC

Ty Madden PHP Texas

Alez Binelas 3B Louisville

 

HS

Jordan Lawler SS

Maercelo Mayer SS

Brady House SS/RHP

 

[notin]

One guy getting underrated in all this (assuming the scouting is accurate) is Louisville catcher Henry Davis...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The thing is, the top 3 picks are hardly ever the 3 names you'd expect them to be, so I'd put the odds at 100:1 one of the 3 listed will be available when the Sox pick 4th.

 

That being said, I'll play along.

 

I'd pick Jaden Hill SP LSU (6-4 215).

 

I'd avoid HS players, right now, as I'm thinking we want to make a strong push in 2-4 years.

 

According to a bunch of mock drafts, these are some names I see often:

 

College

Adrian Del Castillo C Miami

Matt McLain SS UCLA

Kahlil Watson SS Wake Forest

Gunner Hoglund RHP Miss

Henry Davis C Louisville

Sale Frelick OF BC

Ty Madden PHP Texas

Alez Binelas 3B Louisville

 

HS

Jordan Lawler SS

Maercelo Mayer SS

Brady House SS/RHP

 

 

I like Del Castillo, sophomore catcher and clean-up batter at University of Miami, the top-ranked college team in the nation a month ago. Older brother Christian, UM outfielder, was also named ACC Player of the Week in February. Alex Cora's college...

[notin]

I like Del Castillo, sophomore catcher and clean-up batter at University of Miami, the top-ranked college team in the nation a month ago. Older brother Christian, UM outfielder, was also named ACC Player of the Week in February. Alex Cora's college...

 

Also Ryan Braun’s...

[moonslav59]

Catching prospects seem so hard to get right.

[notin]

Catching prospects seem so hard to get right.

 

My understanding is Del Castillo is a hitter not likely to stick at catcher, but Davis is a catcher who can hit...

[moonslav59]

My understanding is Del Castillo is a hitter not likely to stick at catcher, but Davis is a catcher who can hit...

 

Where's he gonna play? 1B? DH?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

My understanding is Del Castillo is a hitter not likely to stick at catcher, but Davis is a catcher who can hit...

 

I've read conflicting reports, some that give Del Castillo a high rating at catcher. He did work out all winter with Sal Perez. Personally, I think a guy playing the toughest position on the diamond for a top-ranked D1 team has to be pretty good. But good point about catching prospects and taking time to develop -- reminds us of Varitek, who wasn't a full-time starter in the bigs until age 27. O's took Rutschman #1 overall and obviously Covid has stalled his progress, but he's already 23 (only six months younger than Devers, who won't be shifting to C).

[notin]

I've read conflicting reports, some that give Del Castillo a high rating at catcher. He did work out all winter with Sal Perez. Personally, I think a guy playing the toughest position on the diamond for a top-ranked D1 team has to be pretty good. But good point about catching prospects and taking time to develop -- reminds us of Varitek, who wasn't a full-time starter in the bigs until age 27. O's took Rutschman #1 overall and obviously Covid has stalled his progress, but he's already 23 (only six months younger than Devers, who won't be shifting to C).

 

2018 first rounder Joey Bart did debut last season...

[notin]

Where's he gonna play? 1B? DH?

 

Probably 1b, but drafting based on position is not something any team should do, with the possible exception of catcher.

 

By the time they reach the majors, many, many players will be in a different position from the one they played when drafted. But very few seem to move into catcher. It does happen, With former VCU shortstop Brandon Inge being one example, but it’s rare.

 

Not sure when Realmuto went from SS to catcher; he was told to switch by a Marlins’ scout but it might have been prior to being drafted...

[jacksonianmarch]

Also, aluminum bats now go for $400+. The cost savings just really isn't there anymore.

 

A good maple bat costs $100 and college hitters will definitely break more than 4 per season. At my school, we bought 4 metal bats per season prior to switching to wood. We bought 30 wood bats when we first started and needed a new shipment within a week

[moonslav59]

Probably 1b, but drafting based on position is not something any team should do, with the possible exception of catcher.

 

By the time they reach the majors, many, many players will be in a different position from the one they played when drafted. But very few seem to move into catcher. It does happen, With former VCU shortstop Brandon Inge being one example, but it’s rare.

 

Not sure when Realmuto went from SS to catcher; he was told to switch by a Marlins’ scout but it might have been prior to being drafted...

 

No, you shouldn't draft by position, but the player's defense (and athleticism) is part of the package being evaluated, unless you are a pitcher.

 

Big lug players, not that Del Castillo is, have to be thought of as future 1Bmen or DHs, which are positions of diminished value, since they are easier to find or acquire.

 

If this kid can catch, it helps his value immensely.

[notin]

No, you shouldn't draft by position, but the player's defense (and athleticism) is part of the package being evaluated, unless you are a pitcher.

 

Big lug players, not that Del Castillo is, have to be thought of as future 1Bmen or DHs, which are positions of diminished value, since they are easier to find or acquire.

 

If this kid can catch, it helps his value immensely.

 

A first baseman in many cases has to be an absolute monster to get drafted high. Since that position in often filled at the MLB level by catchers or third basemen who can hit but do not field adequately...

[mvp 78]

Baseball America has Marcelo Mayer as the 4th ranked player ATM.

 

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2020/9/21/21446821/2021-mlb-draft-scouting-report-ss-marcelo-mayer

 

https://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=381047