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A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

moonslav59

By moonslav59
in Boston Red Sox Talk

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mvp 78 GOAT

mvp 78

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Posted
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by fWAR he is not good either, nor by FIP, SIERA and xFIP.

 

Bzzzt... Wrongo.

 

Porcello was 19th best in fWAR from 2009 - 2020. Over 293 pitchers had over 500 innings during that time period. He's in the top 10% of those guys. I guess that's "very good."
Nick FCL Red Sox

Nick

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Posted
Posted

1 intriguing prospect trade chip for each team per mlb.com

 

Red Sox: Brayan Bello, RHP (No. 18)

Bello's preseason ranking on our Red Sox Top 30 belies the fact that he has emerged as the organization's best healthy pitching prospect while logging a 3.00 ERA with a 76/16 K/BB ratio in 54 innings between High-A and Double-A. Signed for just $28,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2017, he has a mid-90s fastball and flashes a plus slider and changeup in the mid-80s.

 

No thanks, we'll keep him.

moonslav59 GOAT

moonslav59

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1 intriguing prospect trade chip for each team per mlb.com

 

Red Sox: Brayan Bello, RHP (No. 18)

Bello's preseason ranking on our Red Sox Top 30 belies the fact that he has emerged as the organization's best healthy pitching prospect while logging a 3.00 ERA with a 76/16 K/BB ratio in 54 innings between High-A and Double-A. Signed for just $28,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2017, he has a mid-90s fastball and flashes a plus slider and changeup in the mid-80s.

 

No thanks, we'll keep him.

 

No way Bloom trades anyone this good.

 

NO WAY!

Nick FCL Red Sox

Nick

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Posted (edited)

It's really too bad that JD can't play 1B.

 

Sign Nelson Cruz as DH.

Edited by Nick
iortiz Worcester Red Sox

iortiz

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No way Bloom trades anyone this good.

 

NO WAY!

 

I’m starting to think Bloom won’t trade for anybody.

mvp 78 GOAT

mvp 78

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2.6/year is not good. It's solid (mediocre/average) but not good.

 

The hundreds of pitchers behind him may disagree with you.

iortiz Worcester Red Sox

iortiz

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Posted
The hundreds of pitchers behind him may disagree with you.

 

They probably disagree, but they still suck lol

mvp 78 GOAT

mvp 78

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That’s a 52%. Wonder what’s the hit rate for Good Players to MVP pitchers — 3+ fWAR pitchers. I guess way better.

 

If only Porcello had won an MVP, this would be a different story!

notin MVP

notin

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That’s a 52%. Wonder what’s the hit rate for Good Players to MVP pitchers — 3+ fWAR pitchers. I guess way better.

 

Probably not in this bullpen happy era…

notin MVP

notin

Old-Timey Member
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If only Porcello had won an MVP, this would be a different story!

 

The thing is, we probably don’t have a single pitcher anywhere in the Sox farm system capable of having a career as a starter as good as Porcello has had…

iortiz Worcester Red Sox

iortiz

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The thing is, we probably don’t have a single pitcher anywhere in the Sox farm system capable of having a career as a starter as good as Porcello has had…

 

Which is sad.

mvp 78 GOAT

mvp 78

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
The thing is, we probably don’t have a single pitcher anywhere in the Sox farm system capable of having a career as a starter as good as Porcello has had…

 

He was a very good one for sure.

Maxbialystock MVP

Maxbialystock

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The thing is, we probably don’t have a single pitcher anywhere in the Sox farm system capable of having a career as a starter as good as Porcello has had…

 

I'll take Houck over Porcello all day long, every day of the week, and twice on Sundays. Besides, Porcello was just one of a zillion starters the Sox have acquired (and not developed in the Sox system) over the years, and he doesn't come close to the good ones. His career ERA is 4.40, for crying out loud, and in the 5 seasons with the Sox his ERA's were 4.92, 3.15, 4.65, 4.28, and 5.52. His cumulative WAR in 12 seasons is a tiny 20.2, but his cumulative salary is sizable $127M.

notin MVP

notin

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted (edited)
I'll take Houck over Porcello all day long, every day of the week, and twice on Sundays. Besides, Porcello was just one of a zillion starters the Sox have acquired (and not developed in the Sox system) over the years, and he doesn't come close to the good ones. His career ERA is 4.40, for crying out loud, and in the 5 seasons with the Sox his ERA's were 4.92, 3.15, 4.65, 4.28, and 5.52. His cumulative WAR in 12 seasons is a tiny 20.2, but his cumulative salary is sizable $127M.

 

Think Houck has 12 seasons in him? It’s not as common as many think.

 

Porcello has 29.6 fWAR. Since 2000, that total ranks him 48th in MLB, tied with Brandon Webb and just behind Barry Zito.

 

Is Houck a top 50 pitcher over a two decade stretch? If so, Houck better get going as he’s only 6 1/2 years younger than Porcello and Porcello had accumulated nearly 14 fWAR when he was Houck’s age…

Edited by notin
harmony FCL Red Sox

harmony

Verified Member
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That’s a 52%. Wonder what’s the hit rate for Good Players to MVP pitchers — 3+ fWAR pitchers. I guess way better.

The 13 starting pitchers who posted between 3.0 and 3.9 WAR in 2019 had 198 quality starts in 411 outings for 48.2 percent:

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/player/_/view/pitching/season/2019/seasontype/2/table/pitching/sort/WARBR/dir/desc

 

Please double-check my math.

 

As expected a pitcher with a higher WAR generally had a higher percentage of quality starts and a pitcher with a lower WAR generally had a lower percentage of quality starts.

harmony FCL Red Sox

harmony

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
I'll take Houck over Porcello all day long, every day of the week, and twice on Sundays. Besides, Porcello was just one of a zillion starters the Sox have acquired (and not developed in the Sox system) over the years, and he doesn't come close to the good ones. His career ERA is 4.40, for crying out loud, and in the 5 seasons with the Sox his ERA's were 4.92, 3.15, 4.65, 4.28, and 5.52. His cumulative WAR in 12 seasons is a tiny 20.2, but his cumulative salary is sizable $127M.

ZiPS projects Tanner Houck with 2022 and 2023 WAR of 0.6 annually in the righthander's age 26 and age 27 seasons:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/tanner-houck/19879/stats?position=P#zips-3-year-projections

 

The 25-year-old Houck, who has never been a Top 100 prospect, has posted an ERA of 4.14 in 270 minor league innings. Through his age 25 season Rick Porcello had posted an ERA of 4.30 in 1,073 MLB innings.

Maxbialystock MVP

Maxbialystock

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Think Houck has 12 seasons in him? It’s not as common as many think.

 

Porcello has 29.6 fWAR. Since 2000, that total ranks him 48th in MLB, tied with Brandon Webb and just behind Barry Zito.

 

Is Houck a top 50 pitcher over a two decade stretch? If so, Houck better get going as he’s only 6 1/2 years younger than Porcello and Porcello had accumulated nearly 14 fWAR when he was Houck’s age…

 

Porcello only pitched 5 seasons for the Sox, after which they were eager to let him go on his way. I just like Houck more than Porcello because Porcello drove me nuts because he didn't have one single really good pitch nor all that much command. I entirely agree we have no idea what Houck will amount to.

moonslav59 GOAT

moonslav59

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I’m starting to think Bloom won’t trade for anybody.

 

We can afford to trade a couple guys that may not make the 40 man, next year- guys like Potts, Rosario, Chavis or someone we might be surprised by Bloom thinking we can do without.

 

I don't see him trading anyone very promising.

 

I think the highest he goes is maybe Groome or Ward.

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