A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[notin]

What should be considered was whether Duran was possibly better than Cordero not some paragon of baseball perfection. Duran was MVP of the Puerto Rican and has been demonstrating his quality since. In 24 exhibition games prior to the start of the 2021 season, Duran slashed .340/.352/.702 with three home runs, seven RBI, 10 runs scored and 16 hits (six doubles). Why not try him instead of going with a guy who has demonstrated he needs more work? I would say the performance of the Sox main club should come before the Olympics considerations. Dalbec has also regressed and Casas should be developed for a try soon. Quoting stats on Dalbec when he is clearly lost at the plate to me is foolishness.

 

When asked what else Duran had to do, Cora reportedly replied “Get at bats.” So apparently the Sox are not as convinced after 82 plate appearances. And really, should they be? And Danny Santana has certainly bought them some time. The whole “Cordero is killing this team and needs work” argument is yesterday’s news; how many games has Cordero even started since Santana was recalled?

 

Dalbec is a letdown right now. But Casas is not as likely to be promoted. He has like 80 PA total above A ball. Also, unlike Duran, Casas is 21 and service time clocks are a legitimate concern. (Want to lose him to free agency at age 27?). I think he’s a lot less likely. Especially since he’s pretty likely to struggle as much as Dalbec, if not more, if he gets promoted.

 

And then they’re are other issues - like who do you let go?

Edited May 27, 2021 by notin

[moonslav59]

Would they consider sending down Andriese to fully stretch him out (start in 3A) for starting depth?

 

thats an idea.

 

He has done very well, and the sample size is lengthening.

[moonslav59]

What should be considered was whether Duran was possibly better than Cordero not some paragon of baseball perfection. Duran was MVP of the Puerto Rican and has been demonstrating his quality since. In 24 exhibition games prior to the start of the 2021 season, Duran slashed .340/.352/.702 with three home runs, seven RBI, 10 runs scored and 16 hits (six doubles). Why not try him instead of going with a guy who has demonstrated he needs more work? I would say the performance of the Sox main club should come before the Olympics considerations. Dalbec has also regressed and Casas should be developed for a try soon. Quoting stats on Dalbec when he is clearly lost at the plate to me is foolishness.

 

The stats are not invented, and his OPS is fueled by HRs- which are not bloop hits.

 

Duran going to the Olympics is a given. It’s a possible reason he has not and will not be called up for a while, but facts are facts.

[moonslav59]

When asked what else Duran had to do, Cora reportedly replied “Get at bats.” So apparently the Sox are not as convinced after 82 plate appearances. And really, should they be? And Danny Santana has certainly bought them some time. The whole “Cordero is killing this team and needs work” argument is yesterday’s news; how many games has Cordero even started since Santana was recalled?

 

Dalbec is a letdown right now. But Casas is not as likely to be promoted. He has like 80 PA total above A ball. Also, unlike Duran, Casas is 21 and service time clocks are a legitimate concern. (Want to lose him to free agency at age 27?). I think he’s a lot less likely. Especially since he’s pretty likely to struggle as much as Dalbec, if not more, if he gets promoted.

 

And then they’re are other issues - like who do you let go?

 

Dalbec has struggled, no doubt, but is pretty far away from a demotion. He may start missing some starts v tough righties, but even that may be more than a month away.

 

Unlike fans who want players cut after a bad week, baseball management knows the follies of being overly knee jerk reactionaries. Theres a reason baseball plays 162 games.

[Bellhorn04]

I just woke up (4:26 am) and had to check the score. Almost a 3 hour delay. I know that rain is unpredictable but they surely saw this coming. Umpire ("Looks like rain is coming, we'll go as long as we can but once we stop play, you guys have 90 minutes to resume play or I'm calling it"....wouldn't that be better?)

 

Weather forecasts are generally pretty damn accurate. When I looked at the forecast last night I figured the rain was going to start right around the 6th or 7th inning.

[notin]

Dalbec has struggled, no doubt, but is pretty far away from a demotion. He may start missing some starts v tough righties, but even that may be more than a month away.

 

Unlike fans who want players cut after a bad week, baseball management knows the follies of being overly knee jerk reactionaries. Theres a reason baseball plays 162 games.

 

Casas is looking extremely unlikely, especially if/when Duran gets called. This team has enough flexibility to find someone who can cover 1b.

 

And really, it’s possible Dalbec is the guy demoted if/when Duran gets called up...

[Bellhorn04]

The key was that Fenway could keep selling beer all night because the delay came before the end of the 7th inning. If they tarped the field after the 7th, they would have to call it, because everyone would go to bars.

 

So it was well played, then.

[Bellhorn04]

What should be considered was whether Duran was possibly better than Cordero not some paragon of baseball perfection. Duran was MVP of the Puerto Rican and has been demonstrating his quality since. In 24 exhibition games prior to the start of the 2021 season, Duran slashed .340/.352/.702 with three home runs, seven RBI, 10 runs scored and 16 hits (six doubles). Why not try him instead of going with a guy who has demonstrated he needs more work? I would say the performance of the Sox main club should come before the Olympics considerations. Dalbec has also regressed and Casas should be developed for a try soon. Quoting stats on Dalbec when he is clearly lost at the plate to me is foolishness.

 

oldtimer, you're certainly entitled to differ with management, but you seem to be really frustrated, which I don't quite understand. It seems to me you couldn't ask for more savvy guys than Bloom and Cora running things.

[mvp 78]

Casas is looking extremely unlikely, especially if/when Duran gets called. This team has enough flexibility to find someone who can cover 1b.

 

And really, it’s possible Dalbec is the guy demoted if/when Duran gets called up...

 

What does Casas' situation have to do with Duran?

[Nick]

So it was well played, then.

 

funny.....when the game resumed, I doubt there were more than 100 fans.....all beer drinkers I'm sure.

[Nick]

What does Casas' situation have to do with Duran?

 

I'm on the bandwagon for Duran but I've not said a word about Cass.

 

We're in the playoff chase (yeah its early) right now. My only point is you do everything you can to elevate the team. That is the angle I'm coming from. Why not look at Duran or hell I don't care anyone else that MAY, MAY help us. Nope I don't want a rental to gut out any of the younger kids in our system.

 

One thing I never thought of and many of you have is who is on our 40 man roster. We have some names on it for 'protection' only and very unlikely to contribute. So the pool of available talent is much smaller than 40. Although longer you get into 2021, some of those may be candidate for DFA'd.

 

Maybe Moon can take a deep dive into our 40 man roster.

[notin]

What does Casas' situation have to do with Duran?

 

Not directly.

 

But once Duran gets the call, the Sox have enough people to cover 1b, including Dalbec, and three guys who might suddenly find out they have a lot less time in the OF in Santana, Hernandez, and Gonzalez. Thats an awful lot of bodies on the depth chart in front of Casas, and bringing up Duran just increases the availability of all those names for 1B.

 

I have serious doubts the Sox bring up Casas unless injuries make it a necessity.

 

Not to mention the whole issue of the 40 man roster. While we can easily dispatch Brewer or Brennan to accomodate the two players, it's not as easy of a decision for the team. The Sox are going to go through a lot of pitchers this year, and if they DFA two pitchers who make no money but have MLB experience, someone will claim them, giving the Sox that much less pitching depth. Most teams use at least 15 RP in a season. Do the Sox have that many RP ready for the team? And where do Brewer and Brennan fall on that list?

 

It seems to me this decision goes deeper than "Dalbec is struggling, just bring up Casas."...

[mvp 78]

I'm on the bandwagon for Duran but I've not said a word about Cass.

 

We're in the playoff chase (yeah its early) right now. My only point is you do everything you can to elevate the team. That is the angle I'm coming from. Why not look at Duran or hell I don't care anyone else that MAY, MAY help us. Nope I don't want a rental to gut out any of the younger kids in our system.

 

One thing I never thought of and many of you have is who is on our 40 man roster. We have some names on it for 'protection' only and very unlikely to contribute. So the pool of available talent is much smaller than 40. Although longer you get into 2021, some of those may be candidate for DFA'd.

 

Maybe Moon can take a deep dive into our 40 man roster.

 

Dalbec has shown himself to be a bottom of the order hitter. Casas is a middle of the order bat. If they are in contention and Dalbec is still struggling, I'd be very tempted to bring up Casas.

[mvp 78]

Not directly.

 

But once Duran gets the call, the Sox have enough people to cover 1b, including Dalbec, and three guys who might suddenly find out they have a lot less time in the OF in Santana, Hernandez, and Gonzalez. Thats an awful lot of bodies on the depth chart in front of Casas, and bringing up Duran just increases the availability of all those names for 1B.

 

I have serious doubts the Sox bring up Casas unless injuries make it a necessity.

 

Not to mention the whole issue of the 40 man roster. While we can easily dispatch Brewer or Brennan to accomodate the two players, it's not as easy of a decision for the team. The Sox are going to go through a lot of pitchers this year, and if they DFA two pitchers who make no money but have MLB experience, someone will claim them, giving the Sox that much less pitching depth. Most teams use at least 15 RP in a season. Do the Sox have that many RP ready for the team? And where do Brewer and Brennan fall on that list?

 

It seems to me this decision goes deeper than "Dalbec is struggling, just bring up Casas."...

 

If Chavis, Dalbec, Marwin and Santana all are hitting the way they are now, you'd improve the team by adding Casas. Sure, you can have a guy field a position, but if you can get better and are trying to make a run, why not go all in?

[notin]

Dalbec has shown himself to be a bottom of the order hitter. Casas is a middle of the order bat. If they are in contention and Dalbec is still struggling, I'd be very tempted to bring up Casas.

 

I think Casas is about fifth on the list of internal options. Sixth if you count Chavis, as Chavis is already on the 40 man...

[Nick]

If Chavis, Dalbec, Marwin and Santana all are hitting the way they are now, you'd improve the team by adding Casas. Sure, you can have a guy field a position, but if you can get better and are trying to make a run, why not go all in?

 

I'm with you on this.....it's just simple math. Dalbec is hitting about .300 vs left handed pitching. I believe Santana can play 1B and he's a switch hitter. At some point, I'm very willing to move away from 'player development' to team first for this team. Dalbec hitting vs righty issue can be addressed at another time. I think he has all of June to figure this out before he's platooned.

 

It's incredible to me both Dalbec and Chavis struggle (Cordero also) with pitch recognition. I'd like to see Dalbec become more aggressive with first pitch. All three of these guys seem dead in water with 2 strikes, pitchers can expand the strike zone knowing they'll chase it. Not sure how to develop pitch 'recognition'.

 

It's one thing to show Chavis what the high fastball outside the zone looks like with a replay, I think what's needed is a video of those pitches from his perspective, ie have him wear a camera looking at the pitchers. Maybe this can be done during special batting practice. Have someone throw nothing but boarderline high strikes zone pitches. Just a thought.

Edited May 27, 2021 by Nick

[notin]

If Chavis, Dalbec, Marwin and Santana all are hitting the way they are now, you'd improve the team by adding Casas. Sure, you can have a guy field a position, but if you can get better and are trying to make a run, why not go all in?

 

So Santana's 1.179 OPS is not enough to hold back Casas? You're expectations are off the chart!!

[moonslav59]

If Chavis, Dalbec, Marwin and Santana all are hitting the way they are now, you'd improve the team by adding Casas. Sure, you can have a guy field a position, but if you can get better and are trying to make a run, why not go all in?

 

Santana has a 1.179 OPS. I'm not sure why Casas should replace him.

 

Chavis was at .758 in a small sample size.

 

Dalbec has improved greatly since the first month, but may need to be platooned. If that happens, Santana, Marwin, Chavis and even Ockimey are ahead of Casas.

 

I agree, Marwin has gone a long time with his slump.

[notin]

Santana has a 1.179 OPS. I'm not sure why Casas should replace him.

 

Chavis was at .758 in a small sample size.

 

Dalbec has improved greatly since the first month, but may need to be platooned. If that happens, Santana, Marwin, Chavis and even Ockimey are ahead of Casas.

 

I agree, Marwin has gone a long time with his slump.

 

I'm not so sure Ockimey is ahead of Casas. He might be, but I have my doubts. Either way, I would be surprised if we saw either Ockimey or Casas until September at the earliest...

[moonslav59]

I'm with you on this.....it's just simple math. Dalbec is hitting about .300 vs left handed pitching. I believe Santana can play 1B and he's a switch hitter. At some point, I'm very willing to move away from 'player development' to team first for this team. Dalbec hitting vs righty issue can be addressed at another time. I think he has all of June to figure this out before he's platooned.

 

It's incredible to me both Dalbec and Chavis struggle (Cordero also) with pitch recognition. I'd like to see Dalbec become more aggressive with first pitch. All three of these guys seem dead in water with 2 strikes, pitchers can expand the strike zone knowing they'll chase it. Not sure how to develop pitch 'recognition'.

 

Dalbec is hitting over 1.000 vs LHPs. It's righties he sucks against (.452). He's gone from an overall .507 OPS on May 7th to .650, and now some want him benched or demoted (not you).

[mvp 78]

Santana has a 1.179 OPS. I'm not sure why Casas should replace him.

 

Chavis was at .758 in a small sample size.

 

Dalbec has improved greatly since the first month, but may need to be platooned. If that happens, Santana, Marwin, Chavis and even Ockimey are ahead of Casas.

 

I agree, Marwin has gone a long time with his slump.

 

Do you think he'll maintain his 571 ISO? He's more likely to keep that ugly 41% k rate. Doubtful that he continues to have a 28% barrel rate. He has 2 nice homers, I don't think he's going to keep hitting them.

[moonslav59]

I'm not so sure Ockimey is ahead of Casas. He might be, but I have my doubts. Either way, I would be surprised if we saw either Ockimey or Casas until September at the earliest...

 

He's ahead of him as a platoon for Dalbec, at tis moment.

 

Casas has a long way to go to be ML ready.

[mvp 78]

I'm not so sure Ockimey is ahead of Casas. He might be, but I have my doubts. Either way, I would be surprised if we saw either Ockimey or Casas until September at the earliest...

 

Ockimey is only ahead of Casas if they needs someone immediately.

[mvp 78]

He's ahead of him as a platoon for Dalbec, at tis moment.

 

Casas has a long way to go to be ML ready.

 

I thought you said Ockimey was "wrong handed" for that platoon?!??!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

[notin]

Do you think he'll maintain his 571 ISO? He's more likely to keep that ugly 41% k rate. Doubtful that he continues to have a 28% barrel rate. He has 2 nice homers, I don't think he's going to keep hitting them.

 

I suspect Santana will settle into a 650-750 OPS range in the long run. But the way he is hitting now is pretty much pummeling everything and holding back Duran. His triple the other night was apparently the highest exit velocity of his career...

[moonslav59]

Do you think he'll maintain his 571 ISO? He's more likely to keep that ugly 41% k rate. Doubtful that he continues to have a 28% barrel rate. He has 2 nice homers, I don't think he's going to keep hitting them.

 

My point was not about what was projected. I answered the post about "if these guys keep hitting the way they are..." post.

 

Honestly, most players have high K rates now. Just give me some hits and walks and bombs more than others and you have the job over untested players with 80 PA success stories at double & triple A.

[moonslav59]

I thought you said Ockimey was "wrong handed" for that platoon?!??!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

 

I was wrong about that and admitted my mistake.

 

The kid kills righties, and for much longer and at higher levels than Casas.

[notin]

I thought you said Ockimey was "wrong handed" for that platoon?!??!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

 

Ockimey is 25 years old with a .566 OPS in AAA ball. His chances of reching the majors right now are only slightly ahead of mine...

[moonslav59]

Ockimey is only ahead of Casas if they needs someone immediately.

 

Because Casas is NOT ML ready.

[mvp 78]

My point was not about what was projected. I answered the post about "if these guys keep hitting the way they are..." post.

 

Honestly, most players have high K rates now. Just give me some hits and walks and bombs more than others and you have the job over untested players with 80 PA success stories at double & triple A.

 

Yes, if he keeps up a pace of 46 HR's for the rest of the year, they should keep Santana in.