A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

If Pivetta can pitch like 2018, he's ahead of Perez. Otherwise, he's back of the pack IMO.

 

I realize he's a big "if."

 

The guy has some nasty stuff, but many pitchers with that label have failed. I get it.

 

He's just 28 (meat of prime).

 

He has a career 9.6 K/9 rate, and if he can bring his BB/9 rate of 3.4 and HR/9 rate of 1.6 down a notch, just maybe...

 

His sample size from 2019-2020 in not even 110 IP, which of course could have been more had he not sucked, but I'm still hopeful.

 

[Nick]

K's are over rated- both for batters and pitchers.

 

K's suck, if a batter has a .650 OPS, but Dalbec looks to be a .350+ OBP guys who can hit 35+ HRs over 550+ PAs. If he can do that, he can K 350 times, for all I care.

 

There's been times I wished for a K instead of a groundball with less than two outs. You know what I'm talking about. Hitting into double play is absolute momentum killer. That included Pedey last couple of years when he was playing. Jason Varitek was another example.

[Nick]

What the hell are you guys talking about? Sale was HEALTHY when he signed his extension. Maybe he gave the Sox a hometown discount. He loved it that he could be at HOME with his family during spring training.

 

Quit rewriting history. At the time of signing he was healthy.

[mvp 78]

An outside surprise could come from Chavis playing LF and raking.

 

It's pretty telling that the Sox have intentionally kept him away from OF this ST.

[notin]

What the hell are you guys talking about? Sale was HEALTHY when he signed his extension. Maybe he gave the Sox a hometown discount. He loved it that he could be at HOME with his family during spring training.

 

Quit rewriting history. At the time of signing he was healthy.

 

He only made 7 starts and threw 29 IP in the second half of 2018. And in three post season series, he started 3 games and went over 4 IP one time. Just because he wasn’t on the 60 day IL doesn’t mean he was healthy.

 

Sale was MIA for most of the second half of 2018, signed his extension, and followed up with a very questionable 2019. And then missed 2020. It really looks like his problems started back in 2018. And that is NOT revisionist history...

[notin]

It's pretty telling that the Sox have intentionally kept him away from OF this ST.

 

Well how much more versatility do they need?

[Bellhorn04]

What the hell are you guys talking about? Sale was HEALTHY when he signed his extension. Maybe he gave the Sox a hometown discount. He loved it that he could be at HOME with his family during spring training.

 

Quit rewriting history. At the time of signing he was healthy.

 

Not sure it's rewriting history. He missed most of the last 2 months of the 2018 season, and he was used in the 2018 postseason very carefully.

[mvp 78]

Well how much more versatility do they need?

 

It's not versatility, just that they don't see him in LF the way some people on here do.

[mvp 78]

Not sure it's rewriting history. He missed most of the last 2 months of the 2018 season, and he was used in the 2018 postseason very carefully.

 

Pitched 17 regular season innings after 8/1/18.

 

Pitched 15.3 in the postseason.

 

ALDS Game 1: 5.1 innings, 93 pitches

ALDS Game 4: 1 inning in relief (touted as "well, it was going to be his bullpen day anyway")

ALCS Game 1: 4 innings, 86 pitches

WS Game 1: 4 innings, 91 pitches

WS Game 5: 1 inning in relief

 

He was clearly not 100% that postseason.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The caution on Sale was late-season burn-out -- remember Bauer predicting Sale would fade from one of the Cy Young races? So it made sense for the Sox to pace their use of Sale, or reign him in as Autumn approached. We know he was on the DL in the regular season in '18, but neither he nor the Sox were ever going to admit he wasn't 100% in the postseason.

 

A few observations about that final euphoric inning of World Series closing vs. LA: after witnessing the return of total Sale dominance, even for one inning, it was easy to assume/hope he was all the way back... then again, maybe Cora and the Sox knew that a hurt Sale didn't have much left to give and kept him in reserve for one final frame to let it all hang out (with all winter to rest). And what was the real reason the pitching staff gave Sale a standing ovation as he exited the bullpen to finish off the Dodgers? Was he the hero of his teammates because he was a great pitcher or because they knew he may be risking his career with a shredded elbow for their championship rings? Or were they just afraid of him because he swore at all the regulars the night before?

[mvp 78]

Late season burnout caused him to pitch less than 20 innings the final two months?

[Bellhorn04]

Late season burnout caused him to pitch less than 20 innings the final two months?

 

Sale had been pitching like a man possessed - 1 run allowed in 6 starts - when they put them on the IL the first time that year. I highly doubt it was done to manage his innings.

[mvp 78]

Sale had been pitching like a man possessed - 1 run allowed in 6 starts - when they put them on the IL the first time that year. I highly doubt it was done to manage his innings.

 

Why sign Sale to that contract if he can’t pitch past July?

[Bellhorn04]

Why sign Sale to that contract if he can’t pitch past July?

 

Roll of the dice, I guess. One of the best pitchers in the game when he's on.

 

Plus it seems like they realized they wouldn't be signing Mookie to an extension, so they went quickly to Sale and Bogaerts. Not many seem to remember it, but this is exactly what they told the fans after 2018 - they hoped to keep 2 of them, but didn't think they'd be able to keep all 3.

[moonslav59]

Had we let Sale walk, and he went on to have healthy and productive seasons, we'd have never heard the end of it.

[notin]

Had we let Sale walk, and he went on to have healthy and productive seasons, we'd have never heard the end of it.

 

Sure we would have. The day Mookie was dealt...

[notin]

Sale had been pitching like a man possessed - 1 run allowed in 6 starts - when they put them on the IL the first time that year. I highly doubt it was done to manage his innings.

 

I highly doubt Sale - who is only in Boston because he is prone to outbursts against management - would have let anyone do that...

[notin]

Why sign Sale to that contract if he can’t pitch past July?

 

Less money. Sale, or to be more precise, Sale’s agent, probably had a good idea what a healthy Sale can make as a free agent. So why did Sale settle for that offer? Certainly his agent - whose advice he pays for - didn’t recommend it, especially since Sale spent the bulk of his career playing on a contract universally regarded as one of the most team-friendly (re: underpaid) in MLB...

[Nick]

Sale signed his extension on 3/29/2019. For 2019, he was still under the contract signed with the White Sox. His new five year deal was to start in 2020.

 

So we gave $145M to a player who was injured? No physicals? Wow, I'd freaking fire the entire medical staff.

[jacksonianmarch]

Sale had a velo drop and missed time with a shoulder ailment. That’s not the time to lock in a player at $29 mil a season

[Nick]

Sale had a velo drop and missed time with a shoulder ailment. That’s not the time to lock in a player at $29 mil a season

 

Let me get this straight.

 

Chris Sale started 4 spring training games and pitched total of 14 innings, striking out 19 right before he signed his extension.

 

So, Sox management had injured pitcher pitch 4 meaningless spring training games? On top of that, they figured he was just fine and gave him $245M for five years?

 

Come on, be precise. OP stated that he was 'hurt' when we extended him. You stand by that, Doctor? Or did he get hurt after he signed? Or maybe it's an ailment that is difficult to diagnose? That I would understand.

Edited March 24, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Sale signed his extension on 3/29/2019. For 2019, he was still under the contract signed with the White Sox. His new five year deal was to start in 2020.

 

So we gave $145M to a player who was injured? No physicals? Wow, I'd freaking fire the entire medical staff.

 

What makes you think he had no physicals, or that they had no idea about his health status.

 

The reason he signed for less than Scherzer was his health. It was known on both sides, and we rolled the dice.

 

BTW, the jury is still out.

[moonslav59]

Sale had a velo drop and missed time with a shoulder ailment. That’s not the time to lock in a player at $29 mil a season

 

You keep saying his velo dropped, despite all the charts I kept posting.

 

It barely dropped at all and was about where it was for most of his career, but keep believing what the facts don't show.

[jacksonianmarch]

You keep showing “data” that shows a drop yet you rationalize it by saying it was within career norms. I’m telling you that he saw a velo increase prior to his injury and when he returned, his velo was down.

 

Avg fastball

2017 94.4

2018 94.7

2019 93.2

 

And the kicker here was the playoffs in 2018. When he came back and threw in the POs, he was throwing low velo, just came back from a shoulder ailment and then they lavished a contract on him.

 

Also, fangraphs disagrees with you too

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/chris-sale-has-hit-another-bump-in-the-road/

[Bellhorn04]

Let me get this straight.

 

Chris Sale started 4 spring training games and pitched total of 14 innings, striking out 19 right before he signed his extension.

 

So, Sox management had injured pitcher pitch 4 meaningless spring training games? On top of that, they figured he was just fine and gave him $245M for five years?

 

Come on, be precise. OP stated that he was 'hurt' when we extended him. You stand by that, Doctor? Or did he get hurt after he signed? Or maybe it's an ailment that is difficult to diagnose? That I would understand.

 

I think it's pretty obvious there were injury concerns, but there was also uncertainty.

[Bellhorn04]

You keep showing “data” that shows a drop yet you rationalize it by saying it was within career norms. I’m telling you that he saw a velo increase prior to his injury and when he returned, his velo was down.

 

Avg fastball

2017 94.4

2018 94.7

2019 93.2

 

And the kicker here was the playoffs in 2018. When he came back and threw in the POs, he was throwing low velo, just came back from a shoulder ailment and then they lavished a contract on him.

 

Also, fangraphs disagrees with you too

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/chris-sale-has-hit-another-bump-in-the-road/

 

Regardless, Sale is one of the best pitchers in the game. We risked $128 million (present value) on him.

 

You guys risked $324 million on Cole.

 

Elite pitchers are expensive and risky.

[jacksonianmarch]

Regardless, Sale is one of the best pitchers in the game. We risked $128 million (present value) on him.

 

You guys risked $324 million on Cole.

 

Elite pitchers are expensive and risky.

 

Yes they are, but Sale had WAY more miles on his tires than Cole at the time of signing their deals. Cole also has a prototypical build and a repeatable delivery. Sale is built like a string bean and his delivery screams elbow strain. I think any Yankee fan will admit that Cole will likely be a liability at the end of the deal, but getting him now in window was the right move. Signing Sale at the time they did with the cliff looming was a major error for JH to allow. He had to see what was coming

[Bellhorn04]

Yes they are, but Sale had WAY more miles on his tires than Cole at the time of signing their deals. Cole also has a prototypical build and a repeatable delivery. Sale is built like a string bean and his delivery screams elbow strain. I think any Yankee fan will admit that Cole will likely be a liability at the end of the deal, but getting him now in window was the right move. Signing Sale at the time they did with the cliff looming was a major error for JH to allow. He had to see what was coming

 

We'll see how it turns out. Because of COVID they only paid Sale $9 mill for last year, so that shaves more than $15 mill off the total cost of the contract.

[notin]

You keep showing “data” that shows a drop yet you rationalize it by saying it was within career norms. I’m telling you that he saw a velo increase prior to his injury and when he returned, his velo was down.

 

Avg fastball

2017 94.4

2018 94.7

2019 93.2

 

And the kicker here was the playoffs in 2018. When he came back and threw in the POs, he was throwing low velo, just came back from a shoulder ailment and then they lavished a contract on him.

 

Also, fangraphs disagrees with you too

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/chris-sale-has-hit-another-bump-in-the-road/

 

Check out his 2013-2016 velocity...

[mvp 78]

Check out his 2013-2016 velocity...

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/4/6/15186624/chris-sales-velocity-experiment-fastball-red-sox-mlb

 

He has a history of not always throwing as hard as physically possible. Maybe we can't attribute the change in velo entirely due to health.