A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

The Sox roster seems to be more or less set. Who the 25th and 26th man will be is still in doubt, but it is time for Part II of the 2021 season.

 

The Part I link is: https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19841-A-Realistic-View-at-2021-Part-I?p=1373407#post1373407

 

I am pretty sure nobody can say we have not improved from last year, but improving from being near the worst in MLB can be hard to quantify. I like notion’s point about Weber being our #3 starter, last year, and now he’s not even the #3 starter at AAA, and the extent of change and improvement goes well beyond Weber.

 

Here is what we have moved on from 2020’s disastrous season:

 

Pitching IP (rank in IP 2020) ERA:

43 (3) 4.40 Weber

30 (5) 4.80 Mazza

29 (6) 8.16 Godley

20 (10) 7.08 Springs

16 (13) 5.74 Osich

14 (14) 7.07 Covey

14 (14) 7.71 Kickham

13 (16) 4.73 Stock

13 (16) 9.75 Walden

10 (20) 5.59 Hembree

8 (23) 4.50 Triggs

7 (25) 4.05 Workman

5 (26) 21.21 Lever

4 (27) 2.08 Tapia

224 IP Total (43% of 524 Total in 2020)

 

Likely less IP than the pro-rated 2020 season:

30 (4) 3.26 Valdez

26 (7) 5.61 Brewer

20 (11) 5.95 Brice

11 (18) 15.55 Hart

9 (21) 18.60 Hall

96 IP Total (18%of 2020 Total)

 

Combined, we will likely see about 60% of our 2020 IP, replaced by new pitchers or pitchers expected to pitch more, this year.

 

Here are the pitchers who had 0 IP with the Sox last year:

ERod, Sale, Richards, Ottavino, Andriese, Sawamura, Whitlock, Seabold, Bazardo

 

Here are the pitchers expected to see their IP increase from their pro-rated 2020 IP:

Pivetta, Houck, DHern, Taylor

 

I see a chance for vast improvement with our pitching staff from 2020 and 2019. Here were our IP leaders in 2019 with their ERAs:

203/ 3.81 ERod

174/ 5.52 Porcello

147/ 4.40 Sale

107/ 4.28 Price

78/ 3.81 Walden

72/ 1.88 Workman

68/ 5.99 Eovaldi

64/ 3.78 Barnes

56/ 5.43 Velazquez

56/ 4.85 Brasier

55/ 4.12 Brewer

54/ 6.20 Cashner

47/ 3.04 Taylor

41/ 5.09 Weber

40/ 6.02 Johnson

40/ 3.86 Hembree

31/ 5.81 J Smith

30/ 4.45 D Hern

23/ 3.86 Lakins, 20/ 9.74 Shawaryn, 19/ 7.71 Thornburg, 15/7.36 Chacin, 12/6.94 Poyner, 8/8.64 Kelley, 6/8.53 Wright.

 

Projected IP for 2021 (ERA)- 1470 Total

190 ERod 3.80

180 Perez 4.50

160 Pivetta 4.40

160 Eovaldi 4.40

150 Richards 4.20

110 Houck 4.20

70 Sale 3.60

70 Andriese 3.80

70 DHern 3.80

60 Ottavino 3.00

60 Barnes 3.00

50 Sawamura 3.50

40 Brasier 3.80

40 Taylor 3.80

30 Whitlock 4.80

30 Valdez 5.00

(We will likely use 20+ pitchers. I listed 16.)

 

 

Fielding Pro-rated 2020 innings (2.7 x2020) by innings:

 

Catcher

963 Vazquez

427 Plawecki (+26 others)

 

1B:

489 Chavis

474 Dalbec

446 Moreland (+5 others)

 

2B:

549 Peraza

322 Arauz

294 Arroyo

165 Chavis (+86 others)

3B:

1283 Devers

70 Arauz

41 Dalbec (+22 others)

 

SS:

1183 Bogaerts

117 Lin

56 Arauz (+51 others)

 

LF:

452 Verdugo

270 Beni

258 Chavis

153 Munoz(+289 others)

 

CF:

1271 JBJ

94 Pillar (+49 others)

 

RF:

666 Verdugo

484 Pillar

81 JD (+184 others)

 

My 2021 Projections of Innings by position (1470 per position):

 

Catcher:

1000 Vazquez

400 Plawecki

70 (Herrman, Hernandez, Wong, Bandy)

 

1B:

1100 Dalbec

300 Chavis

70 Marwin

 

2B:

1000 Hernandez

200 Arroyo

200 Chavis

70 Marwin

 

3B:

1300 Devers

100 Dalbec

70 Arroyo (Marwin)

 

SS:

1300 Bogaerts

170 Arroyo (Arauz)

 

LF:

500 Cordero

400 Renfroe

400 Chavis

170 Marwin

 

CF:

500 Cordero

400 Verdugo

300 Hernandez

270 Duran

 

RF:

900 Verdugo

570 Renfroe

 

Total:

1300: Devers, Bogaerts, Verdugo, Hernandez

1200: Dalbec

1000: Vazquez, Renfroe, Cordero

900: Chavis

400: Plawecki, Arroyo, Marwin

300: Duran

 

Batting:

 

Lost from 2020 (pro-rated PA- 2.7 x 2020 PAs)

PA/OPS

586/ .801 JBJ

340/ .795 Pillar

324/ .617 Peraza

213/1.177 Moreland

150/ .355 Lin

140/ .442 Beni

 

Added for 2021:

Hernandez, Renfroe, Cordero, Marwin, Duran/Casas/Downs

More from: Dalbec, Arroyo/Arauz

 

Projections:

2020>2021 OPS Player (PAs)

.793>.950 Devers (650)

.680>.850 JD M (650)

.867>.875 Bogey (650)

.844>.875 Verdugo (650)

.680> .740 Hernandez (650)

.959> .800 Dalbec (600)

.645> .775 Renfroe (550)

.800>.775 Vazquez (500)

.733> .775 Cordero (500)

.736> .700 Arroyo (250)

.857> .700 Plawecki (200)

.606> .700 Marwin (200)

 

Budget

 

A look at the 2021 budget in Lux Tax Dollars:

25.6 Sale

22.0 JD

20.0 Bogey

17.0 Eovaldi

10.0 Richards

8.92 Ottavino

8.30 ERod

7.00 EHern

5.00 Perez

4.58 Devers

4.52 Vaz

4.50 Barnes

3.10 Renfroe

3.00 Marwin

2.10 Andriese

1.60 Plawecki

1.50 Sawamura

1.25 Brasier

0.87 Brice

0.80 Cordero

4.20 0-3 year players

2.26 40 man roster players

 

-1.77 Ottavino

2.8 Beni

13.75 Pedey

16.00 Price

 

15.5 Player Benefits

 

TOTAL: 204.4M (Cots Contracts)

$5.6M under the tax line

 

I think we’ll do way better than 2020, but it’s hard to project when we don’t know how many IP we get or how well certain pitchers do. There are also big questions about JD, Cordero and other non pitchers.

 

I project 86 wins and a close race for the last WC slot.

[moonslav59]

My projected 26 man opening day roster:

 

IL: Sale, Brasier & Cordero

AAA (Bubble) : Houck, Duran, Arauz

 

14 Pitchers:

ERod, Eovaldi, Richards, Pivetta, Perez

Ottavino, Barnes, DHern, Sawamura, Andriese, Taylor, Brice, Whitlock, Valdez

 

C: Vazquez & Plawecki

1B: Dalbec

2B: Hernandez

3B: Devers

SS: Bogaerts

LF: Chavis

CF: Verdugo

RF: Renfroe

DH: Martinez

UT: Arroyo & Marwin

 

Since AAA does not start until May, I'd suggest we start Duran or Houck with the Sox and Valdez in AAA.

[Swiharts Ghost]

My projected 26 man opening day roster:

 

IL: Sale, Brasier & Cordero

AAA (Bubble) : Houck, Duran, Arauz

 

14 Pitchers:

ERod, Eovaldi, Richards, Pivetta, Perez

Ottavino, Barnes, DHern, Sawamura, Andriese, Taylor, Brice, Whitlock, Valdez

 

C: Vazquez & Plawecki

1B: Dalbec

2B: Hernandez

3B: Devers

SS: Bogaerts

LF: Chavis

CF: Verdugo

RF: Renfroe

DH: Martinez

UT: Arroyo & Marwin

 

Since AAA does not start until May, I'd suggest we start Duran or Houck with the Sox and Valdez in AAA.

 

Been out of town Moon thanks for this .Have a question about Dalbec he reminds me a lot of the Big Donkey but he has such easy power ! I love this kid he’s like able and a player who could lift a team .The 37 percent strikeout is obviously high but I just could care less knowing what will undoubtedly come back in spades .Moon I guess I’m excited to have a homegrown power hitter finally can’t wait for the season to start and expect bigger things than most from this team .i have learned a lot about the power of coective positivity And hope for our small group here to influence others not only with our team but our families and friends moving forward .I won’t be here too often to much delight I’m sure but while I’m here I’m thankful for everyone here .

Edited March 23, 2021 by Swiharts Ghost

[moonslav59]

Been out of town Moon thanks for this .Have a question about Dalbec he reminds me a lot of the Big Donkey but he has such easy power ! I love this kid he’s like able and a player who could lift a team .The 37 percent strikeout is obviously high but I just could care less knowing what will undoubtedly come back in spades .Moon I guess I’m excited to have a homegrown power hitter finally can’t wait for the season to start and expect bigger things than most from this team .

 

K's are over rated- both for batters and pitchers.

 

K's suck, if a batter has a .650 OPS, but Dalbec looks to be a .350+ OBP guys who can hit 35+ HRs over 550+ PAs. If he can do that, he can K 350 times, for all I care.

[Sox75]

93 wins! That's my call, & I'm sticking to it.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

They’ll finish in the 70s. If they weren’t in a division with three legit playoff contenders, I’d say 80, but even with the worst team in baseball in the division, they’ll have 57 games vs NYY, TB, and TOR. The pen is bad. The rotation isn’t much better. As time matches on, they’ll get worse and worse, especially if they sell off pieces.

[mvp 78]

They’ll finish in the 70s. If they weren’t in a division with three legit playoff contenders, I’d say 80, but even with the worst team in baseball in the division, they’ll have 57 games vs NYY, TB, and TOR. The pen is bad. The rotation isn’t much better. As time matches on, they’ll get worse and worse, especially if they sell off pieces.

 

As time marches on:

Sale comes back

younger studs get promoted

 

Not sure how that makes them worse. They should be better in the 2nd half.

[jacksonianmarch]

And who, pray tell, are these “younger studs”?

[mvp 78]

And who, pray tell, are these “younger studs”?

 

Duran and Downs fill specific holes in this lineup. When they are ready, the team will be better off for it.

 

You can say you don’t think much of them, but it just reminds me that Salty WAS better than Jesus Montero no matter how much you argued otherwise.

[kenmeister]

But the pen does seem like a weak point. My hope is that DHern turns out to be great.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

But the pen does seem like a weak point. My hope is that DHern turns out to be great.

 

This is a good take. Barnes turns 31 in June and is gone by July unless the Sox are in contention... and maybe even if they are. Bloom passed on many better free agent relievers this winter, so there is little chance he'll keep Barnes and Ottavino, who may be his best trade chips this summer.

 

This assumes Bloom won't take any Yankee fans' advice and deal ERod, the workhorse ace in his prime and most immediate candidate for a decent longterm extension.

 

However, the next longterm extension Bloom offers anyone will be his first in Boston. As much as some fans have the utmost confidence in such a sudden change in Bloom's approach as Chief Officer, seeing will be believing...

[Bellhorn04]

However, the next longterm extension Bloom offers anyone will be his first in Boston. As much as some fans have the utmost confidence in such a sudden change in Bloom's approach as Chief Officer, seeing will be believing...

 

I have a ton of confidence that if JH tells Bloom he can spend up to the tax threshold or a little over every year, he'll do it...

[jacksonianmarch]

Duran and Downs fill specific holes in this lineup. When they are ready, the team will be better off for it.

 

You can say you don’t think much of them, but it just reminds me that Salty WAS better than Jesus Montero no matter how much you argued otherwise.

 

Prospecting is an in exact science. Montero was the top prospect in baseball, so there’s no shame in thinking he’d be better than he was. Although Cash did sell high on him, now didn’t he?

 

I do not think Durran ends up as a big league starter. He’s not a good defender at this juncture, so you can’t say he offsets his offensive inefficiencies with his glove. His power is nil right now. He doesn’t work counts or take walks and also K’s more than a slap hitter should. So he is a BABIP dependent hitter with limited defensive prowess and doesn’t walk enough. Can’t steal 1b.

 

Downs I like. Downs, I also surmise, will spend most of not all of 21 in the minors. He saw a handful of games at AA in 19 and is only 22 years old. But I love the package. Power is there, eye is there, contact is above average, reasonable speed with SB instincts, and soft hands. He’s a real prospect, not like Durran who seems to be a hyped up pretender, IMO. In order for Downs to come up, the Sox would need to either have an injury to Bogaerts or no production at all from Marwin, Chavis and Kike. If it gets that far down the line, then you’ve lost some games due to that lack of production

[jacksonianmarch]

This is a good take. Barnes turns 31 in June and is gone by July unless the Sox are in contention... and maybe even if they are. Bloom passed on many better free agent relievers this winter, so there is little chance he'll keep Barnes and Ottavino, who may be his best trade chips this summer.

 

This assumes Bloom won't take any Yankee fans' advice and deal ERod, the workhorse ace in his prime and most immediate candidate for a decent longterm extension.

 

However, the next longterm extension Bloom offers anyone will be his first in Boston. As much as some fans have the utmost confidence in such a sudden change in Bloom's approach as Chief Officer, seeing will be believing...

 

If you sign ERod to an extension now, it’ll be market rate. Bloom isn’t going to lock him up at market rate without seeing how he does this year post myocarditis. If he’s on the team and healthy at the deadline, you deal him and just tell him before hand that you’ll see him on the open market. Pull a Chapman with the Yanks. Got us Gleyber

[notin]

If you sign ERod to an extension now, it’ll be market rate. Bloom isn’t going to lock him up at market rate without seeing how he does this year post myocarditis. If he’s on the team and healthy at the deadline, you deal him and just tell him before hand that you’ll see him on the open market. Pull a Chapman with the Yanks. Got us Gleyber

 

That doesn’t make sense.

 

If ERod signs an extension now, it would likely be the same as Sale, a Suspected Injury Discount. THAT is why you wait on him a bit.

 

But then there is no rule against extending him during the year...

[mvp 78]

But the pen does seem like a weak point. My hope is that DHern turns out to be great.

 

I'm not sure it's a "weak" point. I think it'll be average. The rotation should be about average too. The offense will be easily top 10 if not top 5.

[mvp 78]

Prospecting is an in exact science. Montero was the top prospect in baseball, so there’s no shame in thinking he’d be better than he was. Although Cash did sell high on him, now didn’t he?

 

I do not think Durran ends up as a big league starter. He’s not a good defender at this juncture, so you can’t say he offsets his offensive inefficiencies with his glove. His power is nil right now. He doesn’t work counts or take walks and also K’s more than a slap hitter should. So he is a BABIP dependent hitter with limited defensive prowess and doesn’t walk enough. Can’t steal 1b.

 

Downs I like. Downs, I also surmise, will spend most of not all of 21 in the minors. He saw a handful of games at AA in 19 and is only 22 years old. But I love the package. Power is there, eye is there, contact is above average, reasonable speed with SB instincts, and soft hands. He’s a real prospect, not like Durran who seems to be a hyped up pretender, IMO. In order for Downs to come up, the Sox would need to either have an injury to Bogaerts or no production at all from Marwin, Chavis and Kike. If it gets that far down the line, then you’ve lost some games due to that lack of production

 

His power was nil. Now he has a little (2 ST HR's and HR's in winter league). I think your definition of slap hitter is off or at least you just haven't seen him lately. *shrug emoji*

[mvp 78]

That doesn’t make sense.

 

If ERod signs an extension now, it would likely be the same as Sale, a Suspected Injury Discount. THAT is why you wait on him a bit.

 

But then there is no rule against extending him during the year...

 

Was Sale's contract really an injury discount? If it is, it wasn't much of a discount. Maybe reduction in years?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I have a ton of confidence that if JH tells Bloom he can spend up to the tax threshold or a little over every year, he'll do it...

 

Are you basing this confidence on the pre-Bloom days or second-hand quotes you've read or heard the past year (from maybe Werner, Kennedy or Lebron)? Because Henry has been absolutely MIA for over a year since telling us how sad he was that his modern-day Stan Musial had to be traded to LA...

[notin]

Was Sale's contract really an injury discount? If it is, it wasn't much of a discount. Maybe reduction in years?

 

He absolutely could have gotten more years and probably more money as a healthy free agent...

[notin]

I'm not sure it's a "weak" point. I think it'll be average.

 

It could be both...

[mvp 78]

It could be both...

 

If the weakest part of the team is an average pen, this team should be pretty good.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If the weakest part of the team is an average pen, this team should be pretty good.

 

The pen was one of the many weak parts in 2020, but mainly weakened by the weakest part: the starting notation. If the starters can improve to mediocre, the pen could be above-average.

 

Starting pitchers have to be either the biggest questions or weakest links, depending on the answers. The winter's lone acquisition for the rotation was good for a few seasons, six years ago. Three others have career losing records. ERod is such a key, if he's fully healthy and back to '19 form...

[mvp 78]

The pen was one of the many weak parts in 2020, but mainly weakened by the weakest part: the starting notation. If the starters can improve to mediocre, the pen could be above-average.

 

Starting pitchers have to be either the biggest questions or weakest links, depending on the answers. The winter's lone acquisition for the rotation was good for a few seasons, six years ago. Three others have career losing records. ERod is such a key, if he's fully healthy and back to '19 form...

 

Someone else hinted that the pen would be their weak spot. I agree with you that the rotation could be their downfall (can't really rely on guys with lengthy injury history to stay healthy).

[notin]

If the weakest part of the team is an average pen, this team should be pretty good.

 

It's not the most likely outcome, but it is possible.

 

A lot depends on the pitching depth...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's not the most likely outcome, but it is possible.

 

A lot depends on the pitching depth...

 

Surprise contenders often seem to "discover" a young pitcher by mid-season who becomes a major contributor and infuses hope. Who will be that guy in Boston? Can we even identify a candidate on the farm -- especially, now that Mata is out?

 

Can the Sox not draft Rocker or Leiter #4 if either is still on the board in July? We know how low the odds are for using first-round picks on pitchers, but opportunities are rare for adding mound talent with legitimate high-upside to a system. By all accounts the Vandy pitchers are exceptional; it's not like media outlets were drooling over who would get Trey Ball a decade ago.

 

Tampa has the Number One ranked farm right now, and a lot is based on arms; it's also a caution against predicting the Sox to win more than the Rays (even without Snell).

[Bellhorn04]

Was Sale's contract really an injury discount? If it is, it wasn't much of a discount. Maybe reduction in years?

 

$145 mill, present value $128 mill - I'd call that a pretty big discount for a pitcher with his numbers.

[Bellhorn04]

Are you basing this confidence on the pre-Bloom days or second-hand quotes you've read or heard the past year (from maybe Werner, Kennedy or Lebron)? Because Henry has been absolutely MIA for over a year since telling us how sad he was that his modern-day Stan Musial had to be traded to LA...

 

I don't care if Henry is hiding in a bunker in Afghanistan. We still ended up with a payroll just short of the tax threshold this year.

 

You'd have to be quite a pessimist to really believe this team has suddenly decided not to spend.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't care if Henry is hiding in a bunker in Afghanistan. We still ended up with a payroll just short of the tax threshold this year.

 

You'd have to be quite a pessimist to really believe this team has suddenly decided not to spend.

 

We all know this 2021 payroll is tied up with a lot of dead money of players no longer here or currently unavailable... and that "owing" isn't quite the same as "spending". But such limitations are probably the reason the Sox opted for -- and these are just examples that don't necessarily correlate -- Richards over Odorizzi, Renfroe over Rosario, Marwin over Semien, Ottavino (really German) over Hand, etc, etc.

 

I'm not a pessimist, but you'd have to be quite an optimist to think nothing has changed in the way this franchise is doing business going forward... not when we haven't heard one peep out of the principal owner in over a year.

[notin]

$145 mill, present value $128 mill - I'd call that a pretty big discount for a pitcher with his numbers.

 

A heathy Sale was probably looking at a Scherzer contract...