2021 Spring Training Discussion

[mvp 78]

Yeah I meant about the season overall. But player wise, I have pretty low expectations for Dalbec. I never really viewed him as a 1B of the future type guy, but if he ends up exceeding expectations, great. I just think he profiles more as a high power guy with mediocre OBP and lots of strikeouts

 

See... I knew...

[moonslav59]

There hasn’t been a big gap between the league OPS at 1B vs 3B over the last few years, but if Dalbec can be an average defender at third, does having him play 3B make him more likely to stick?

[moonslav59]

Yeah I meant about the season overall. But player wise, I have pretty low expectations for Dalbec. I never really viewed him as a 1B of the future type guy, but if he ends up exceeding expectations, great. I just think he profiles more as a high power guy with mediocre OBP and lots of strikeouts

 

What’s a mediocre OBP?

Here are the league averages from ‘17-‘19

.322 all

.334 1B only

 

Dalbec has a career OBP over .360, but it’s fair to expect a drop in the majors.

[mvp 78]

There hasn’t been a big gap between the league OPS at 1B vs 3B over the last few years, but if Dalbec can be an average defender at third, does having him play 3B make him more likely to stick?

 

Maybe?

[moonslav59]

Maybe?

 

I guess how well Devers does at 3B, this year, may help determine where Bobby ends up, assuming he does well.

 

I brought up this point in response to the statement- not by you- about not seeing Dalbec as the 1Bman of the future.

[mvp 78]

I guess how well Devers does at 3B, this year, may help determine where Bobby ends up, assuming he does well.

 

I brought up this point in response to the statement- not by you- about not seeing Dalbec as the 1Bman of the future.

 

I understand. I think we know JD will be gone at some point. The question is if Casas is mashing, what does that do to Dalbec? If Devers' defense doesn't get better, I could see him being pushed to DH and Dalbec taking over at 3b.

[moonslav59]

I understand. I think we know JD will be gone at some point. The question is if Casas is mashing, what does that do to Dalbec? If Devers' defense doesn't get better, I could see him being pushed to DH and Dalbec taking over at 3b.

 

The big unknown is who is better at 1B defense, Casas or Devers, assuming Dalbec moves to 3B.

 

My guess is the choices will be easy mid season or next winter.

[mvp 78]

The big unknown is who is better at 1B defense, Casas or Devers, assuming Dalbec moves to 3B.

 

My guess is the choices will be easy mid season or next winter.

 

Casas is apparently very good at 1B. He's got good athleticism. He's supposed to be much better than Dalbec or at least to have a defensive ceiling of being much better.

[notin]

Casas is apparently very good at 1B. He's got good athleticism. He's supposed to be much better than Dalbec or at least to have a defensive ceiling of being much better.

 

Casas is listed as being slightly taller (6'5" as opposed to the diminutive 6'4" Dalbec), but who knows how much the height difference really is. If Casas threw left-handed, it would give him a bigger edge based on physical tools...

[moonslav59]

Casas is apparently very good at 1B. He's got good athleticism. He's supposed to be much better than Dalbec or at least to have a defensive ceiling of being much better.

 

I think Devers could be very good at 1B.

 

I’ve read good things about Casas, too.

 

I think he’ll be called up in 2022 or September.

[Nick]

We've had this discussion earlier and I was told that Dalbec is not an improvement over Devers at 3B.

 

If all three become 40 homer types, my initial thought was can Dalbec play left field, so Casas can play 1B and Devers remain at 3B. JD can remain at DH if he continues to hit.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We've had this discussion earlier and I was told that Dalbec is not an improvement over Devers at 3B.

 

If all three become 40 homer types, my initial thought was can Dalbec play left field, so Casas can play 1B and Devers remain at 3B. JD can remain at DH if he continues to hit.

 

I think by the time Casas is hitting 40 bombs in the bigs that JD will be gone. I know JD has retooled his swing before, but from what I've seen in ST at bats, he hasn't changed from what seems to totally sap his strength -- feeble swings at breaking balls off the plate. Until he starts taking those pitches, I can't see any reason why any team would ever throw Martinez another fastball in the strike zone.

[notin]

We've had this discussion earlier and I was told that Dalbec is not an improvement over Devers at 3B.

 

If all three become 40 homer types, my initial thought was can Dalbec play left field, so Casas can play 1B and Devers remain at 3B. JD can remain at DH if he continues to hit.

 

I do like the idea of Dalbec in LF. If he has one defensive asset that scores highly, it is his throwing arm. And that is completely wasted at 1b...

[Bellhorn04]

I think by the time Casas is hitting 40 bombs in the bigs that JD will be gone. I know JD has retooled his swing before, but from what I've seen in ST at bats, he hasn't changed from what seems to totally sap his strength -- feeble swings at breaking balls off the plate. Until he starts taking those pitches, I can't see any reason why any team would ever throw Martinez another fastball in the strike zone.

 

J. D. is also a veteran hitter with a career .290 BA and .530 SLG. The man knows how to hit and what pitchers are doing to try to get him out.

 

I think there's only one thing to worry about with a guy of his profile, and that's an age-related loss of bat speed.

[notin]

J. D. is also a veteran hitter with a career .290 BA and .530 SLG. The man knows how to hit and what pitchers are doing to try to get him out.

 

I think there's only one thing to worry about with a guy of his profile, and that's an age-related loss of bat speed.

 

JD has re-invented himself before. This is a guy who was once released from a rebuilding team. Think about that. A team not even trying to win and with nothing to lose simply gave up on him. That's like getting released by the Orioles or Pirates today. And he turned that around and almost immediately became one of the most devastating hitters in the AL...

[mvp 78]

We've had this discussion earlier and I was told that Dalbec is not an improvement over Devers at 3B.

 

If all three become 40 homer types, my initial thought was can Dalbec play left field, so Casas can play 1B and Devers remain at 3B. JD can remain at DH if he continues to hit.

Devers has better range, but has an unacceptable amount of errors from throwing. Devers has a higher ceiling at 3b but may never get there.

[moonslav59]

We've had this discussion earlier and I was told that Dalbec is not an improvement over Devers at 3B.

 

If all three become 40 homer types, my initial thought was can Dalbec play left field, so Casas can play 1B and Devers remain at 3B. JD can remain at DH if he continues to hit.

 

My guess is Dalbec is better than Devers on defense at 3B, so if Devers fails to improve, a flip could happen over the winter.

 

It might take a clear disparity to move Devers off 3B.

[notin]

For 2021, I am ok with Devers at 3b and Dalbec at 1b. Again, without Sale, this is going to be a tough season anyway so if the Sox take some time to evaluate a few things, it makes a lot of sense.

 

If the Sox miss the post-season this year, it will not be because of Devers play at 3B...

[moonslav59]

For 2021, I am ok with Devers at 3b and Dalbec at 1b. Again, without Sale, this is going to be a tough season anyway so if the Sox take some time to evaluate a few things, it makes a lot of sense.

 

If the Sox miss the post-season this year, it will not be because of Devers play at 3B...

I totally agree, but one could argue this would be the perfect season to try Devers at 1B and to see what Dalbec can do at 3B.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

JD has re-invented himself before. This is a guy who was once released from a rebuilding team. Think about that. A team not even trying to win and with nothing to lose simply gave up on him. That's like getting released by the Orioles or Pirates today. And he turned that around and almost immediately became one of the most devastating hitters in the AL...

 

I know, I acknowledged this. He supposedly went back to the drawing board this winter. We just haven't seen his adjustments yet, and until the league does, there's no reason to change the book on him. I think JD -- for as much as he makes and where he hits in the order -- is still an underrated swing factor (pun unintended) on the fate of the Sox in this year's standings. He may never again be the absolute monster he was in 2018, but Boston desperately needs at least the 2019 JD.

 

Martinez' successes or failures may have the biggest impact on the 2021 lineup...

[notin]

I know, I acknowledged this. He supposedly went back to the drawing board this winter. We just haven't seen his adjustments yet, and until the league does, there's no reason to change the book on him. I think JD -- for as much as he makes and where he hits in the order -- is still an underrated swing factor (pun unintended) on the fate of the Sox in this year's standings. He may never again be the absolute monster he was in 2018, but Boston desperately needs at least the 2019 JD.

 

Martinez' successes or failures may have the biggest impact on the 2021 lineup...

 

Maybe Martinez is the guy at risk if Triston Casas posts a .950 OPS by July 1...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Maybe Martinez is the guy at risk if Triston Casas posts a .950 OPS by July 1...

 

What are the odds JD and his contract get shipped and subsidized so Bloom can buy another A or AA arm by the deadline? 50-50?

[mvp 78]

For 2021, I am ok with Devers at 3b and Dalbec at 1b. Again, without Sale, this is going to be a tough season anyway so if the Sox take some time to evaluate a few things, it makes a lot of sense.

 

If the Sox miss the post-season this year, it will not be because of Devers play at 3B...

 

Yup.

[Bellhorn04]

What are the odds JD and his contract get shipped and subsidized so Bloom can buy another A or AA arm by the deadline? 50-50?

 

I don't think the odds are very good, because we'd have to pay a huge chunk of it. More dead money on the payroll.

 

Better to hope he bounces back and is part of our 2022 championship run.

[notin]

What are the odds JD and his contract get shipped and subsidized so Bloom can buy another A or AA arm by the deadline? 50-50?

 

I think less.

 

Largely because 1) there will need to be an AL team that thinks they have some post-season chances but lack a DH, which is the easiest position to fill, 2) even with some subsidization, JD's contract is still pretty expensive, especially since he is not going to opt out after this season, and 3) as he is not opting out, and the Sox get Sale back in 2022, if JD is hitting well enough to be considered actual valuable trade bait, then why wouldn't they keep him in the plans for 2022?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think less.

 

Largely because 1) there will need to be an AL team that thinks they have some post-season chances but lack a DH, which is the easiest position to fill, 2) even with some subsidization, JD's contract is still pretty expensive, especially since he is not going to opt out after this season, and 3) as he is not opting out, and the Sox get Sale back in 2022, if JD is hitting well enough to be considered actual valuable trade bait, then why wouldn't they keep him in the plans for 2022?

 

All this makes sense if you or I were running the club. But the cost-conscious current officer in charge may view the DH position as a vital spot to platoon match-ups, rest regulars and try out low-budget hitters. JD may just be the last full-time designated hitter for a franchise refurbished around versatility.

[notin]

All this makes sense if you or I were running the club. But the cost-conscious current officer in charge may view the DH position as a vital spot to platoon match-ups, rest regulars and try out low-budget hitters. JD may just be the last full-time designated hitter for a franchise refurbished around versatility.

 

Again, the Sox still have a massive payroll and are still one of the highest spending teams in the league despite not signing a major free agent contract to a player from another team since 2018. We really don't know if Bloom will ever be a spender or not. We know in 2020, despite all public statements that there was no mandate to get under the tax limit, there very likely was a mandate to get under the limit. This off-season, when they could have spent, the season was already under question from the previous March when Sale finally went under the knife and would be sidelined for up to 18 months. So why spend and go for it? I don't think we will get an accurate idea of his financial commitments until next season. And if his Tampa history is the only reason for this label, bear in mind his predecessor in that role and former boss and mentor does run the time with the highest payroll in the league.

 

We've seen other GMs come from small market, low payroll teams and suddenly change their spending habits when they get their hands on real money. Dan Duquette was a prime example. Dombrowski, who was not allowed to spend in Florida (now Miami) also was a totally different GM when he had an actual budget, first in Detroit and then again in Boston. Right now, there is no reason to think Bloom will be any different...

[Bellhorn04]

We've seen other GMs come from small market, low payroll teams and suddenly change their spending habits when they get their hands on real money. Dan Duquette was a prime example. Dombrowski, who was not allowed to spend in Florida (now Miami) also was a totally different GM when he had an actual budget, first in Detroit and then again in Boston. Right now, there is no reason to think Bloom will be any different...

 

Right, and I doubt any general manager has ever said, when the owner gives him a budget of 200 mill, "Screw you, I'm only spending 150." (Pro-rate this example accordingly for small market teams etc.)

[notin]

Right, and I doubt any general manager has ever said, when the owner gives him a budget of 200 mill, "Screw you, I'm only spending 150." (Pro-rate this example accordingly for small market teams etc.)

 

And while I am certain Henry would prefer to spend $150 million on a 95 win team over spending $200 million on a 95 win team, he still has a very long history of not limiting his GMs payrolls, outside of the occasional reset. There is probably some sort of wins/dollar metric that he likes and would prefer to get as many wins as possible for as little money as possible. But he till seems to want those wins...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We also have to keep in mind that Bloom has never been top dog for a franchise before. So as for being in charge, he can only be defined by what he has actually done in Boston.

 

As for the current state of the Sox and how it relates to JD Martinez going forward, any rebuilding GM would be counting down the days to wipe a contract of such a one-dimensional player off the books. There was a sense the Red Sox were hoping for him to opt-out even before hiring Bloom...