2021 Spring Training Discussion

[notin]

Can Cordero stay healthy for 140 games?

 

Can Arroyo stay effective for 30?

 

Cordero certainly is a health risk, and if/when he gets injured then yes, some bench player will have to replace him. But Arroyo has a career OPS+ of 71. How much better if at all will he get with regular playing time?

[harmony]

Can Arroyo stay effective for 30?

 

Cordero certainly is a health risk, and if/when he gets injured then yes, some bench player will have to replace him. But Arroyo has a career OPS+ of 71. How much better if at all will he get with regular playing time?

Projections have Christian Arroyo with a 2021 wRC+ of around 90 (and modest WAR in fewer than half the scheduled games):

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/christian-arroyo/16434/stats?position=2B/3B

[TylerD]

Bobby "Upper Deck" Dalbec.

 

Sounds like a poop, but the man plays good ball!

[cp176]

Bobby "Upper Deck" Dalbec.

 

He does look good. Big and strong. Should be fun watching him progress.

[dgalehouse]

He does look good. Big and strong. Should be fun watching him progress.

 

A product of the " barren farm."

[mvp 78]

He does look good. Big and strong. Should be fun watching him progress.

 

The concern was that his k% would go up and up and he'd never adjust. What if he can adjust and just has real easy power? Fun would be an understatement.

[TylerD]

He does look good. Big and strong. Should be fun watching him progress.

 

He looked sharp just saw the highlights. Bats were red hot today.

[moonslav59]

Bobby "Upper Deck" Dalbec.

 

How about...

 

"Ball- Deck?"

[moonslav59]

Insanely small sample sizes, but here are some of the ST'ing OPS:

 

2.675 Kiki

 

2.181 Dalbec

2.000 Yorke

2.000 Rei

 

1.556 Munoz

1.500 Duran

 

1.262 Downs

1.250 Arauz

 

1.125 JD

1.089 Chavis

 

.900 Wong

.875 Devers

.804 Renfroe

 

.500 Vaz

 

(Not all players listed.)

 

[Kimmi]

Xander leading off 50 percent with Vaz hitting 9th I like but could see Cora turning to Kiki in the 9 spot to elongate this lineup.Im not worried about Hunter hitting 9th as much as some .I would like to see Devers hitting second some this year with Verdugo leading off and Bogey slotted in to Cleanup much more than years past .JDM has a lot to prove this year I’d start him off in the 7 hole to ease him in .I like this team more than most this year but I think a lot Rides on JDM as to just how dangerous we can be .Futures Bright guys let’s do this .We can go in many directions lineup wise .

 

JD is such a professional hitter that I can't see him not rebounding this year. I am comfortable letting him bat 4th. I think our offense will be very good. Our defense is another story.

 

The closer we get to Opening Day, the more excited I get about this team.

[Kimmi]

Roster Resource has him batting 9th as well...

 

So of course Kike has a very good 2 games leading off and the Sox offense explodes. LOL

 

SSS alert!

[Kimmi]

While line-ups may not mean much, batting someone first or ninth means a lot more of less PAs for Kiki.

 

In 2019, the number 1 slot had 241 more PAs than our # 9 slot.

 

That's the biggest thing about batting someone first - the # of PAs he will get versus the batters in the other slot. I can defend most line up changes that managers make, but this one is difficult for me to defend. Especially from a manager like Cora.

[Kimmi]

Well, it makes sense to bat Kiké leadoff. The guy who hits leadoffs is more likely to hit without anyone else on than any other slot in the lineup. May as well have one of your worst hitters there!

 

The problem is, he's also more likely to hit when there are 0 outs.

[moonslav59]

The problem is, he's also more likely to hit when there are 0 outs.

 

Yes, and as strange as it seems, he's more of a power guy than an on base guys.

[oldtimer]

The problem is, he's also more likely to hit when there are 0 outs.

 

Cora wants to put speedy players in the first couple of spots so the thumpers can bring them in. Kike is one of those. I suppose Verdugo would also fit. Got to be a decent hitter to be batting up front as it doesn't help to be fast if your OBP is low.

[moonslav59]

Cora wants to put speedy players in the first couple of spots so the thumpers can bring them in. Kike is one of those. I suppose Verdugo would also fit. Got to be a decent hitter to be batting up front as it doesn't help to be fast if your OBP is low.

 

.330 vs .360 seems like a big difference, but putting EHern up first does improve almost every slot afterwards.

 

(LOL)

[Nick]

How about...

 

"Ball- Deck?"

 

Why not just call him the Thumper?

 

JBJ finally signed with Brewers. He did not get a four year deal. With a sixty game season in 2020, it was going to be very difficult to get what he wanted. There's still some nervousness about the revenue side of baseball. Teams are cautious (not the Dodgers).

 

Basically Xander, Devers, Vaz and JD remains from the 2018 team (position players).

 

I am stoked to watch the new talent with these four.

 

We will score runs. We are headed to eventual core group of Devers, Dalbec, Verdugo, Downs, Duran and Casas with veterans.

 

Not sure how this team can't be better than last year's team.

[notin]

.330 vs .360 seems like a big difference, but putting EHern up first does improve almost every slot afterwards.

 

(LOL)

 

The difference between a .330 OBP and a .360 OBP is 15 times on base for 500 PA. So one extra walk every 10 games...

[moonslav59]

The difference between a .330 OBP and a .360 OBP is 15 times on base for 500 PA. So one extra walk every 10 games...

 

...and really, a .345 to .350 is considered acceptable, so the difference is even less.

[notin]

...and really, a .345 to .350 is considered acceptable, so the difference is even less.

 

Most of MLB will have an OBP between .300 and .380, which is range encompassing 40 times on base for a 500 PA season. That is significant, but it is not normal distribution, as it is heavily weighed towards the lower end. The league average OBP the last 3 eyars was .322 (2020), .323 (2019) and .318 (2018).

 

A .330 OBP is not ideal, but it is above average. Still, for some reason, a .350 OBP - which is barely better in real life - just looks that much better on paper. And regardless of the minute difference in OBP from Hernandez, I still like the idea of Verdugo-Devers-Bogaerts batting 1-2-3 (re-arrange the order in any way). As has been noted, these are the players that you want to get the most plate appearances...

[notin]

To me the top 4 hitters on the Sox are no-brainers. Ideally you want Verdugo-Bogaerts-Devers up n front of JDM.

 

After that, I am not sure who they should try to get into the 5 through 9 spots. Dalbec, Renfroe and Cordero are all big power-big strikeout guys. Dalbec (10.1%) and Cordero (8.9%) have better BB% than Renfroe (7.4%), but Renfroe is also the only one with 500 PA in his career. and the only one to ever have a season with 160 PA. Vazquez has been consistently improving as a hitter. Is he a better candidate to hit in front of the TTO guys? The only hitter let who shouldn't bat 5th in Hernandez. But where should he hit? Maybe 9th, by default?

[kenmeister]

To me the top 4 hitters on the Sox are no-brainers. Ideally you want Verdugo-Bogaerts-Devers up n front of JDM.

 

I fervently hope JDM's bat returns, but he was horrible last year. I wouldn't pencil him in hitting 4th unless he shows something this spring, but that's just me.

[notin]

I fervently hope JDM's bat returns, but he was horrible last year. I wouldn't pencil him in hitting 4th unless he shows something this spring, but that's just me.

 

Oh he was a disappointment and never got going. But it was only 211 PA..

 

What's more disconcerting is in 2019, he posted only a .793 OPS vs RHP. Down a far cry from the 1.051 he posted in 2018 vs RHP. If this trend continues, JDM may find himself as a rather expensive weakside platoon option with no bench versatility by 2022...

[moonslav59]

Oh he was a disappointment and never got going. But it was only 211 PA..

 

What's more disconcerting is in 2019, he posted only a .793 OPS vs RHP. Down a far cry from the 1.051 he posted in 2018 vs RHP. If this trend continues, JDM may find himself as a rather expensive weakside platoon option with no bench versatility by 2022...

 

I think that's a stretch.

 

He works too hard to slip this much, but at his age, it can and does happen, often.

 

Fingers crossed, but I'm pretty confident, he remains solid through the end of his contract with us.

[moonslav59]

Most of MLB will have an OBP between .300 and .380, which is range encompassing 40 times on base for a 500 PA season. That is significant, but it is not normal distribution, as it is heavily weighed towards the lower end. The league average OBP the last 3 eyars was .322 (2020), .323 (2019) and .318 (2018).

 

A .330 OBP is not ideal, but it is above average. Still, for some reason, a .350 OBP - which is barely better in real life - just looks that much better on paper. And regardless of the minute difference in OBP from Hernandez, I still like the idea of Verdugo-Devers-Bogaerts batting 1-2-3 (re-arrange the order in any way). As has been noted, these are the players that you want to get the most plate appearances...

 

Of the 226 batters with over 500 PAs since 2019, number 113 had a .333 OBP (mean).

 

(Kiki was at .296, and his career is .313, but I expect a bounce back year.)

[notin]

Of the 226 batters with over 500 PAs since 2019, number 113 had a .333 OBP (mean).

 

(Kiki was at .296, and his career is .313, but I expect a bounce back year.)

 

That's not a mean; a mean is an average. I think you mean median.

 

And really, it's not a median, since the median of a 226 sample set would be the average of entries 113 and 114. (If .333 is also the value of the 114th entry, than our median value is correct.)

[TylerD]

How about...

 

"Ball- Deck?"

Much better lol.

[moonslav59]

That's not a mean; a mean is an average. I think you mean median.

 

And really, it's not a median, since the median of a 226 sample set would be the average of entries 113 and 114. (If .333 is also the value of the 114th entry, than our median value is correct.)

 

Yup- "median."

[oldtimer]

That's not a mean; a mean is an average. I think you mean median.

 

And really, it's not a median, since the median of a 226 sample set would be the average of entries 113 and 114. (If .333 is also the value of the 114th entry, than our median value is correct.)

 

Perhaps it's ala Mode

[mvp 78]

Perhaps it's ala Mode

 

Hell yes