Blake Snell dealt to Padres

[jacksonianmarch]

What a deal for the Rays and strangely, I like this deal for the Yanks in 2021. I think the Padres got ripped off here. Snell is a dominant pitcher, when he throws. He had a full 2018, missed 9 starts in 2019 and last year, didn’t average 5 IP per start. He’s never averaged 6IP per start. His FIP’s have risen the past two years from his CY season. TB treated him with kid gloves and now he’s gonna head to SD where he’ll pair with Lamet and Paddock in 21 and add Clevenger in for 22. He will need to actually figure out how to throw more innings, although I’m sure SD won’t disallow Snell from facing the lineup a third time through.

 

For the Rays, their haul is mostly for tomorrow, but it’s enormous. Mejia is the only now piece and he’s a reclamation project to a degree. He only has 364 PAs in the bigs and in 2019, he was decent offensively catching half the games. He’s got a rocket for an arm, elite bat to ball skills and age and control on his side (25 yr and controlled through 2025). The majors questions are on the defensive side was a lack of “aptitude”. That’s code for, he’s a dummy. TB has a history of turning these kinds of players into big league assets.

 

Patino is the top prospect here. He didn’t fare well in relief this year, but only pitched in High A for a minute before 2020. He’s likely ticketed for AA or AAA out the gate, but he’s a top 10 level prospect with a high octane arm, a deep arsenal, and the means to control it. He’s a dangerous pitcher long term.

 

Blake Hunt is a long term catching piece. He’s considered a top 100 prospect already who’s got the defensive chops to stick, but has the offensive chops to potentially be a long term all star level catcher.

 

Cole Wilcox closes it out as a third round draftee from the 2020 draft, but was considered a mid first round talent. He signed for over $3mil and has a high 90s heater with a plus slider and change up.

 

This is an absolute haul for Snell, who’s been effective when on the mound, injury prone at times and handled with kid gloves. While this weakens the Rays in 2021, a year they could have really made some noise, it does follow the mantra of value over windows or timing and should make them more difficult to deal with in years going forward

Edited December 28, 2020 by jacksonianmarch

[notin]

Patino, McClanahan and Baz could be a very powerful front load on the Rays’ rotation for a few seasons...

[Thunder]

Very interesting move for both teams

[notin]

The Rays also held Kiermaier. Not sure if this means they prefer to hold him or San Diego wanted no part...

[jacksonianmarch]

The Padres have an insane amount of talent in their farm, so this doesnt hurt them a ton, although it is absolutely an overpay. They do get to keep Gore, who likely starts 2021 as their #5.

[notin]

The Padres have an insane amount of talent in their farm, so this doesnt hurt them a ton, although it is absolutely an overpay. They do get to keep Gore, who likely starts 2021 as their #5.

 

Per BTV, the Padres gave up $60.90 million in surplus value and acquired $52.90 million in surplus value....

[Bellhorn04]

Per BTV, the Padres gave up $60.90 million in surplus value and acquired $52.90 million in surplus value....

 

So an $8 million overpay. Not going to kill them.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The American League champions traded their ace in his prime for prospects. What a great time it must be to be a Rays fan!

[jacksonianmarch]

So an $8 million overpay. Not going to kill them.

 

That site is suspect at best and useless at worst. 3 years of fragile Snell, the pen killer for that haul will end up being much, much better for the Rays in the long term. But it closes their short term window. With Morton and now Snell gone, that rotation has two massive holes in it. Chirinos should return around the ASB, filling one hole, but they’ll need someone to step up and fill the other

[notin]

That site is suspect at best and useless at worst. 3 years of fragile Snell, the pen killer for that haul will end up being much, much better for the Rays in the long term. But it closes their short term window. With Morton and now Snell gone, that rotation has two massive holes in it. Chirinos should return around the ASB, filling one hole, but they’ll need someone to step up and fill the other

 

You need to make your mind up about Snell, about whether or not he is an underpriced dominant pitcher or a fragile bullpen killer.

 

BTW, the label "bullpen killer" might be a tad unfair given the Rays' strategy of deploying the bullpen very quickly in games. Even prior to employing the opener strategy, they were among the last in the league in IP/start, and not because they had bad starters...

[notin]

That site is suspect at best and useless at worst. 3 years of fragile Snell, the pen killer for that haul will end up being much, much better for the Rays in the long term. But it closes their short term window. With Morton and now Snell gone, that rotation has two massive holes in it. Chirinos should return around the ASB, filling one hole, but they’ll need someone to step up and fill the other

 

So are you saying your personal evaluations are better than not only the site itself, but also the 2 people capable of getting the position of MLB GM who happened to both agree it as a fair deal? Saying the Padres got "ripped off" is a very strong statement about the ability of AJ Preller to evaluate this trade and do what is best for his team.

 

And all because the site refuses to acknowledge that no player should have more trade value than Gleyber Torres?

[Bellhorn04]

So are you saying your personal evaluations are better than not only the site itself, but also the 2 people capable of getting the position of MLB GM who happened to both agree it as a fair deal? Saying the Padres got "ripped off" is a very strong statement about the ability of AJ Preller to evaluate this trade and do what is best for his team.

 

And all because the site refuses to acknowledge that no player should have more trade value than Gleyber Torres?

 

Jax doesn't have much patience for digging into actual facts and numbers, as he proved on the other thread with the JDM/Santana thing.

Edited December 28, 2020 by Bellhorn04

[notin]

Jax doesn't much patience for digging into actual facts and numbers, as he proved on the other thread with the JDM/Santana thing.

 

And that is how he and I differ.

 

I live for digging into these baseball numbers, while he prefers frivolous activities like saving other people's lives...

[jacksonianmarch]

Jax doesn't have much patience for digging into actual facts and numbers, as he proved on the other thread with the JDM/Santana thing.

 

Not true at all. I just do not think a site that values Torres less than Castillo (far less in fact) is worth it's salt at all

[jacksonianmarch]

You need to make your mind up about Snell, about whether or not he is an underpriced dominant pitcher or a fragile bullpen killer.

 

BTW, the label "bullpen killer" might be a tad unfair given the Rays' strategy of deploying the bullpen very quickly in games. Even prior to employing the opener strategy, they were among the last in the league in IP/start, and not because they had bad starters...

 

I never said he was underpriced, although he is. He is an effective 5 inning pitcher who fits with what the Rays are looking for. He will be a loss for them and the gains they made in this trade will likely not be bearing fruit for a couple years

[Bellhorn04]

Not true at all. I just do not think a site that values Torres less than Castillo (far less in fact) is worth it's salt at all

 

Their valuation of Castillo does seem to be too high.

[Kimmi]

The American League champions traded their ace in his prime for prospects. What a great time it must be to be a Rays fan!

 

I'm sure it's frustrating for the few Rays fans that there are, but the Rays have typically called the timing of these trades pretty good. Plus, the Rays have been pretty successful since they became the Rays. No, they don't have a WS Championship, but they make the playoffs at a good clip. The playoffs are a crapshoot, so judging them by the lack of championships is unfair. They have had this success at a fraction of the cost that the Red Sox and Yankees have. I'm impressed.

[notin]

Not true at all. I just do not think a site that values Torres less than Castillo (far less in fact) is worth it's salt at all

 

The value would also depend on their projected salaries. If Torres projects to make more money than Castillo through the arbitration process, then it would affect his trade value...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm sure it's frustrating for the few Rays fans that there are, but the Rays have typically called the timing of these trades pretty good. Plus, the Rays have been pretty successful since they became the Rays. No, they don't have a WS Championship, but they make the playoffs at a good clip. The playoffs are a crapshoot, so judging them by the lack of championships is unfair. They have had this success at a fraction of the cost that the Red Sox and Yankees have. I'm impressed.

 

Apparently so are the Red Sox owners by hiring Bloom -- but I'm guessing your post is a set-up for someone to reply in this way. I'm not judging Tampa by how far they go in the postseason, just from a possible viewpoint of their fans... the opposite of a line from the recently renamed Godfather III: "Just when I thought I was in (as in, buying my favorite player's jersey), they throw me back out!"

 

Tampa is innovative out of default, but it's not a brand the enamors me, like other sports teams that revolutionized their game -- and caused new rules to outlaw their methods -- like the NC hoop team that won by running out clocks, passing to "four corners", or the NJ Devils hockey team that won by stopping scoring with their neutral zone trap.

[moonslav59]

The value would also depend on their projected salaries. If Torres projects to make more money than Castillo through the arbitration process, then it would affect his trade value...

 

cots has Torres with 3 years of team control (all arbs) and Castillo with just 3 arb years.

 

Although Torres will likely make more in 4 years than Castillo makes in 3, you'd think the extra year would make Torres gain value over Castillo.

 

That Trade Value site must just think Castillo is way better than Torres.

Edited December 28, 2020 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

The value would also depend on their projected salaries. If Torres projects to make more money than Castillo through the arbitration process, then it would affect his trade value...

 

They've got Castillo at about $150 million in actual value for 3 years, minus $35 salary for a net value of $115 million.

 

But I can't figure out the $150 million. That would be about 6 WAR per year, but his projections are more like 3-3.5 WAR per year.

[moonslav59]

They've got Castillo at about $150 million in actual value for 3 years, minus $35 salary for a net value of $115 million.

 

But I can't figure out the $150 million. That would be about 6 WAR per year, but his projections are more like 3-3.5 WAR per year.

 

Do they use WAR and projected WAR?

 

If yes, bWAR or fWAR.

[a700hitter]

And Padres are close to acquiring Darvish.

[Bellhorn04]

Do they use WAR and projected WAR?

 

If yes, bWAR or fWAR.

 

They must use fWAR, because there's a link to FanGraphs.

[notin]

cots has Torres with 3 years of team control (all arbs) and Castillo with just 3 arb years.

 

Although Torres will likely make more in 4 years than Castillo makes in 3, you'd think the extra year would make Torres gain value over Castillo.

 

That Trade Value site must just think Castillo is way better than Torres.

 

 

Per my back and forth posts with Bitzer, they use multiple sites for projected performance and salary. So it’s those sites that must have faith in Castillo.

 

Now they do often include other external criteria, like Q-factor, but I doubt either Castillo or Torres have much of an impact there...

[Bellhorn04]

Per my back and forth posts with Bitzer, they use multiple sites for projected performance and salary. So it’s those sites that must have faith in Castillo.

 

Now they do often include other external criteria, like Q-factor, but I doubt either Castillo or Torres have much of an impact there...

 

I don't see how you can project a guy his age who has topped at 4.1 fWAR to have 3 straight 6 fWAR seasons.

[a700hitter]

And Padres are close to acquiring Darvish.

The Padres have acquired Yu Darvish.

[Kimmi]

Apparently so are the Red Sox owners by hiring Bloom -- but I'm guessing your post is a set-up for someone to reply in this way. I'm not judging Tampa by how far they go in the postseason, just from a possible viewpoint of their fans... the opposite of a line from the recently renamed Godfather III: "Just when I thought I was in (as in, buying my favorite player's jersey), they throw me back out!"

 

Tampa is innovative out of default, but it's not a brand the enamors me, like other sports teams that revolutionized their game -- and caused new rules to outlaw their methods -- like the NC hoop team that won by running out clocks, passing to "four corners", or the NJ Devils hockey team that won by stopping scoring with their neutral zone trap.

 

My post was not a set up for anything. I'm simply stating that, like it or not, the Rays' method works. I understand that from a fan's point, it's very frustrating to get attached to players only to have them traded away while they're still performing very well. While I don't think it's a good idea to hand out those huge contracts, the Sox are not going to become the Rays. They will continue to have one of the highest payrolls.

 

FTR, I am not a fan of all of the Rays' innovativeness on the field, even though I know that most of it is born out of analytics.

[Kimmi]

The Padres have acquired Yu Darvish.

 

The Padres are going for it. For their sake, I hope it works out for them.

[moonslav59]

The Padres are going for it. For their sake, I hope it works out for them.

 

That Hosmer signing really bit them in the arse.