This team is a total Yawn both on the field and off from top to bottom the Redsox

[jacksonianmarch]

24-25?

 

Stop. Just stop.

 

I should stop? You’re the one who thinks the 4th worst team in baseball will magically rebound into playoff contention without any major additions either via farm, trade or FA. Bloom’s moves will bear fruit. I’ve given you the timeline whether you choose to believe it or not is up to you. 2020 was a tear down. 2021 is in the farm talent acquisition. 22 is minor additions or developmental additions. 23 you start adding big pieces externally and make a run at the POs. 24 you’re a WS contender.

[notin]

I should stop? You’re the one who thinks the 4th worst team in baseball will magically rebound into playoff contention without any major additions either via farm, trade or FA. Bloom’s moves will bear fruit. I’ve given you the timeline whether you choose to believe it or not is up to you. 2020 was a tear down. 2021 is in the farm talent acquisition. 22 is minor additions or developmental additions. 23 you start adding big pieces externally and make a run at the POs. 24 you’re a WS contender.

 

You do realize big market teams rarely if ever operate that way...

[Bellhorn04]

You do realize big market teams rarely if ever operate that way...

 

Cubs under Theo did?

[moonslav59]

I should stop? You’re the one who thinks the 4th worst team in baseball will magically rebound into playoff contention without any major additions either via farm, trade or FA. Bloom’s moves will bear fruit. I’ve given you the timeline whether you choose to believe it or not is up to you. 2020 was a tear down. 2021 is in the farm talent acquisition. 22 is minor additions or developmental additions. 23 you start adding big pieces externally and make a run at the POs. 24 you’re a WS contender.

 

We were one of the worst teams in 2012, and look what happened in 2013.

 

A lot depends on the foundation that "bad team" has and how many injuries or abnormally bad years players had that year.

 

Granted, our foundation is not what it was between 2012 and 2013, but we have some nice pieces and a hell of a lot of players coming off injury season(s) and/or bad years. Sure, some of all may not comeback to form, but you seem to be counting on your players in similar situations to come back and lead the Yanks to something special.

 

In a sense, if things go right for the Sox, we could see "additions" from some or many of these players:

 

Sale (7.6 WAR in '17, 6.2 in '18 or even 3.6 in '19)

Eovaldi (1.5 WAR in just 11 starts in '18)

ERod (3.7 WAR in '19 or even 2.1 in '18)

JD (1.031 OPS in '18/ .939 in '19)

Beni (.830 OPS in '18/ .774 in '19)

Devers (.916 OPS in '19)

Vaz (.798 in '19)

Chavis (.776 OPS in '19)

 

or something special from...

 

Dalbec (pro-rate 75% of 2020 to 500+ PAs)

Houck (pro-rate 75% of 2020 to 120+ IP)

Renfroe (.805 in '18/ .778 in '19)

 

Of course, getting all of these players to return to form at once is wishful thinking, but expecting them all to be as bad or injured as they were in 2019 and/or 2020 is wishful thinking on your part.

 

Then, we know we be adding some quality players to the mix in the next 4-6 weeks. It is not a stretch to think we might compete for the WC slot, this year and a ring in 2022. Yes, we will need a few things to go right, all at the same time, but by 2022, Downs and a few other farm hands may add some value in big ways, too. Our budget could expand bigly in 2022, too.

 

[dgalehouse]

I should stop? You’re the one who thinks the 4th worst team in baseball will magically rebound into playoff contention without any major additions either via farm, trade or FA. Bloom’s moves will bear fruit. I’ve given you the timeline whether you choose to believe it or not is up to you. 2020 was a tear down. 2021 is in the farm talent acquisition. 22 is minor additions or developmental additions. 23 you start adding big pieces externally and make a run at the POs. 24 you’re a WS contender.[/quote. I would be shocked if that was the plan. All wishful thinking on your part.

[moonslav59]

I'm think the plan is to spend large next winter and be relevant in 2022. Along the way, we try to improve and be reasonably watchable in 2021, while not going over the tax line.

[notin]

Cubs under Theo did?

 

A rare exception, and even he acquired Rizzo and Arrieta long before his pre-2015 acquisition splash...

[Kimmi]

I should stop? You’re the one who thinks the 4th worst team in baseball will magically rebound into playoff contention without any major additions either via farm, trade or FA. Bloom’s moves will bear fruit. I’ve given you the timeline whether you choose to believe it or not is up to you. 2020 was a tear down. 2021 is in the farm talent acquisition. 22 is minor additions or developmental additions. 23 you start adding big pieces externally and make a run at the POs. 24 you’re a WS contender.

 

I don't think the Sox are magically rebounding without more additions. The offseason is not over yet. I don't think the Sox will be the division winner, by any means, but I do think they will contend for the postseason this year. Even if they don't, it is not going to take us until 24 to become a WS contender.

[Kimmi]

Cubs under Theo did?

 

John Henry and the Red Sox fan base do not have the patience to go that route. That is why some of those awful signings took place under Cherington's watch. It's also why Cherington's watch was cut short.

 

A Red Sox GM does not have the luxury of strictly rebuilding without also remaining competitive in the process.

[moonslav59]

We are gong to spend big, next winter.

 

Book it.

 

If the spending brings us guys like HRam & Pablo,maybe we won't compete in 2022, but it won't be because our rebuild plan is 4-5 years long.

[mvp 78]

John Henry and the Red Sox fan base do not have the patience to go that route. That is why some of those awful signings took place under Cherington's watch. It's also why Cherington's watch was cut short.

 

A Red Sox GM does not have the luxury of strictly rebuilding without also remaining competitive in the process.

They signed awful contracts on the heels of a championship. Made no sense then.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We are gong to spend big, next winter.

 

Book it.

 

 

Maybe on a splash position player, but I just don't see many key pitchers out there next winter under 30 beyond McCullers -- unless we want to invest in another TJ-recovery in Syndergaard. The best of the other 29-year olds may be Dylan Bundy and our own ERod. If the latter proves healthy, we better lock him up before the comp gets fierce.

 

There will be Hall of Fame starting pitchers available, but most are pushing 40, like Scherzer, Greinke and Verlander... and all make at least $33 million per.

[moonslav59]

Maybe on a splash position player, but I just don't see many key pitchers out there next winter under 30 beyond McCullers -- unless we want to invest in another TJ-recovery in Syndergaard. The best of the other 29-year olds may be Dylan Bundy and our own ERod. If the latter proves healthy, we better lock him up before the comp gets fierce.

 

There will be Hall of Fame starting pitchers available, but most are pushing 40, like Scherzer, Greinke and Verlander... and all make at least $33 million per.

 

I'm not sure who it will be, but we are going over the tax line, next year.

 

Also, losing Pedey's contract and being 1 year away from losing Eovaldi's & JD should make spending large more manageable.

[Noles_1335]

If there’s no real talented arms out there to go and get via the FA signings... why not really dig deep and move the untouchable.... hate it or not, Devers should be that guy! Those of you who think he’s the one guy we got who’s not available... rubbish! We won’t win again until 2022 at best and why not see what future front line starters we can pull for him! Go ahead drill me over this observation!

[jacksonianmarch]

You do realize big market teams rarely if ever operate that way...

 

Big market teams rarely find themselves in the scorched earth scenario that DD left them in while also staring up at 3 in division teams vastly better, deeper and with more farm assets . Also, Henry has never annually operated as a big market owner. He always seems to find a way to pull back and rebuild. And each time he has rebuilt, it has borne fruit. He just never had as daunting a rebuild ahead of him.

[jacksonianmarch]

We were one of the worst teams in 2012, and look what happened in 2013.

 

A lot depends on the foundation that "bad team" has and how many injuries or abnormally bad years players had that year.

 

Granted, our foundation is not what it was between 2012 and 2013, but we have some nice pieces and a hell of a lot of players coming off injury season(s) and/or bad years. Sure, some of all may not comeback to form, but you seem to be counting on your players in similar situations to come back and lead the Yanks to something special.

 

In a sense, if things go right for the Sox, we could see "additions" from some or many of these players:

 

Sale (7.6 WAR in '17, 6.2 in '18 or even 3.6 in '19)

Eovaldi (1.5 WAR in just 11 starts in '18)

ERod (3.7 WAR in '19 or even 2.1 in '18)

JD (1.031 OPS in '18/ .939 in '19)

Beni (.830 OPS in '18/ .774 in '19)

Devers (.916 OPS in '19)

Vaz (.798 in '19)

Chavis (.776 OPS in '19)

 

or something special from...

 

Dalbec (pro-rate 75% of 2020 to 500+ PAs)

Houck (pro-rate 75% of 2020 to 120+ IP)

Renfroe (.805 in '18/ .778 in '19)

 

Of course, getting all of these players to return to form at once is wishful thinking, but expecting them all to be as bad or injured as they were in 2019 and/or 2020 is wishful thinking on your part.

 

Then, we know we be adding some quality players to the mix in the next 4-6 weeks. It is not a stretch to think we might compete for the WC slot, this year and a ring in 2022. Yes, we will need a few things to go right, all at the same time, but by 2022, Downs and a few other farm hands may add some value in big ways, too. Our budget could expand bigly in 2022, too.

 

 

I will give you some stone cold locks, JM style!

 

1. Sale will return healthy around the ASB, but his velocity will never get back to what it was pre-shoulder injury. He will be an effective starter and should toe the slab in 2022 from opening day onward. His production will be more in the 3-4WAR arena than the 7+ WAR area he occupied when he was throwing smoke.

 

2. ERod will struggle with his conditioning for a lot longer than most starters do. He will post his high level velocity early in starts and it will fade come the middle innings. He will go from a 200+IP starter from 2019 and will likely be more a 5IP and shower guy for most of the season. If his health dictates it, you will see him start to get deeper into games come late June into July, just in time for the sox to deal him for a prospect haul

 

3. Eovaldi will have one month where he is absolutely dominant, 1.5 months where he is absolutely terrible, 1.5 months where he is tolerable and will spend two months on the IL or "skipping starts" with various ailments. If the dominant month is early, the sox might be able to pawn him off on some sucker and get out from the 22 commitment

 

4. JD will make a mild rebound, but he looked pretty cooked in 2020. His inability to use video seemed to hurt him and his bat looked really, really slow. You may see a rebound to the .800OPS range, but the days of seeing him as an elite offensive force seem to be over

 

5. Beni will be on another team come opening day

 

6. Devers will have an all star caliber year

 

7. Vaz's 2020 was his career best OPS. It also came with a .341BABIP and a 3% absolute rise in his K rate. He will perform worse than 2020

 

8. Chavis will hit 15 homeruns in 2021 if he plays enough, but will post a poor OPS and will be a benchwarmer or minor leaguer by the ASB

 

 

Let's look at something else you are missing. JBJ is gone. He quietly put up a 1.4WAR in a 50 game season. Mitch Moreland and his 1.2WAR in 22 games is gone. Now Moreland wasnt gonna keep up that pace, but he definitely helped. Dalbec slides in for Moreland and will he be more exposed as the team's 1b? He did pop 8 homers in basically a month, but he K'd 39 times in 80AB (49% of his AB's). His BABIP was nearly .400. He makes Aaron Judge look like a contact hitter. Houck was billed as a reliever because he has essentially two pitches and his command leaves a lot to be desired. I also think Houck starts 2021 in the minors so Bloom can monkey with his service time. Renfroe is a good bet to bounceback, IMO, especially at Fenway. Brandon Workman is gone. Heath Hembree is gone. Now Hembree and Workman weren't world beaters in 2020, but they were previously reliable pen arms. You've got nothing back there now. DHern and Barnes with maybe Smith (who knows if he is any good). The rest of the pen is horrendous with no help in sight in the farm system. Strong likelihood they will rely on the pen heavily with ERod being eased in, Sale being eased in once he is back, Perez being a 5IP pitcher at best and the rest of the rotation being a pile of goo

 

Ultimately, I do think the sox can improve on their .400 win percentage, especially since ERod will occupy a slot in their rotation for most of the year and Sale should return for at least half the season. When you aren't having AAAA pitchers throwing every day, you tend to run into more wins. But as currently constructed, this sox team is no better than a 75-80 win squad. That might be generous, but it also has to do with the fact that the AL is down

Edited January 19, 2021 by jacksonianmarch

[Larry Cook]

I hope bloom is planning to relying on youngsters as depth players this year.

 

Handling losing is easier knowing we are playing prospects.

[moonslav59]

I will give you some stone cold locks, JM style!

 

1. Sale will return healthy around the ASB, but his velocity will never get back to what it was pre-shoulder injury. He will be an effective starter and should toe the slab in 2022 from opening day onward. His production will be more in the 3-4WAR arena than the 7+ WAR area he occupied when he was throwing smoke.

 

2. ERod will struggle with his conditioning for a lot longer than most starters do. He will post his high level velocity early in starts and it will fade come the middle innings. He will go from a 200+IP starter from 2019 and will likely be more a 5IP and shower guy for most of the season. If his health dictates it, you will see him start to get deeper into games come late June into July, just in time for the sox to deal him for a prospect haul

 

3. Eovaldi will have one month where he is absolutely dominant, 1.5 months where he is absolutely terrible, 1.5 months where he is tolerable and will spend two months on the IL or "skipping starts" with various ailments. If the dominant month is early, the sox might be able to pawn him off on some sucker and get out from the 22 commitment

 

4. JD will make a mild rebound, but he looked pretty cooked in 2020. His inability to use video seemed to hurt him and his bat looked really, really slow. You may see a rebound to the .800OPS range, but the days of seeing him as an elite offensive force seem to be over

 

5. Beni will be on another team come opening day

 

6. Devers will have an all star caliber year

 

7. Vaz's 2020 was his career best OPS. It also came with a .341BABIP and a 3% absolute rise in his K rate. He will perform worse than 2020

 

8. Chavis will hit 15 homeruns in 2021 if he plays enough, but will post a poor OPS and will be a benchwarmer or minor leaguer by the ASB

 

 

Let's look at something else you are missing. JBJ is gone. He quietly put up a 1.4WAR in a 50 game season. Mitch Moreland and his 1.2WAR in 22 games is gone. Now Moreland wasnt gonna keep up that pace, but he definitely helped. Dalbec slides in for Moreland and will he be more exposed as the team's 1b? He did pop 8 homers in basically a month, but he K'd 39 times in 80AB (49% of his AB's). His BABIP was nearly .400. He makes Aaron Judge look like a contact hitter. Houck was billed as a reliever because he has essentially two pitches and his command leaves a lot to be desired. I also think Houck starts 2021 in the minors so Bloom can monkey with his service time. Renfroe is a good bet to bounceback, IMO, especially at Fenway. Brandon Workman is gone. Heath Hembree is gone. Now Hembree and Workman weren't world beaters in 2020, but they were previously reliable pen arms. You've got nothing back there now. DHern and Barnes with maybe Smith (who knows if he is any good). The rest of the pen is horrendous with no help in sight in the farm system. Strong likelihood they will rely on the pen heavily with ERod being eased in, Sale being eased in once he is back, Perez being a 5IP pitcher at best and the rest of the rotation being a pile of goo

 

Ultimately, I do think the sox can improve on their .400 win percentage, especially since ERod will occupy a slot in their rotation for most of the year and Sale should return for at least half the season. When you aren't having AAAA pitchers throwing every day, you tend to run into more wins. But as currently constructed, this sox team is no better than a 75-80 win squad. That might be generous, but it also has to do with the fact that the AL is down

 

Sale put up some of his best numbers after returning from an injury and had diminished velocity. I'm not saying he is a lock to have a 7 WAR again, but he can get above 4 or 5. I guess this must also mean Severino is toast, too, right?

 

Let's hear your projections for ...

 

Montgomery

 

German

 

Garcia

 

Severino

 

King

 

Be just as critical. Try it.

[Noles_1335]

I hope I’m wrong but Sale will never be the real Sale again... his delivery is too violent and that elbow can’t take that strain. The velocity will never get back to the mid 90’s!

[jacksonianmarch]

Sale put up some of his best numbers after returning from an injury and had diminished velocity. I'm not saying he is a lock to have a 7 WAR again, but he can get above 4 or 5. I guess this must also mean Severino is toast, too, right?

 

Let's hear your projections for ...

 

Montgomery

 

German

 

Garcia

 

Severino

 

King

 

Be just as critical. Try it.

 

Severino came back from his teres strain hitting 100mph before he blew out his elbow. He is also 5 years younger than Sale with far less wear on his tires.

 

In terms of predictions...

 

Sevy will have a 4ish ERA on the whole by the end of the year. He will return in late June, early July and be up and down before having a pretty solid September and heading into the POs with momentum

 

Montgomery will be fully healthy for 2021. He will start at least 25 games, his ERA will be in the low to mid 4's and he will average a touch over 5IP per start

 

Garcia and Schmidt are the two blue chippers that will get some chances in the rotation. Garcia has the deeper arsenal, Schmidt has more power. One of them will lock down a rotation spot, although "locking down" will not be as an ace level producer, not yet. I think we see a mid 4's ERA from the better of them who locks down the rotation. One off the cuff prediction here is that whomever doesn't get a lot of innings will end up a really solid pen option down the stretch. Another addendum to this is whomever does lock down the spot will start off 2021 gangbusters and fade late

 

German, no f***ing clue. His head was just as big a problem as his ability to de-escalate a domestic dispute. He even posted a goodbye to baseball while serving his suspension. His stuff is elite. His control is top notch. His command is not as evidenced by his 1.9HR/9 in 2019.

[moonslav59]

I hope I’m wrong but Sale will never be the real Sale again... his delivery is too violent and that elbow can’t take that strain. The velocity will never get back to the mid 90’s!

 

He can be great without throwing 96 mph.

[notin]

Severino came back from his teres strain hitting 100mph before he blew out his elbow. He is also 5 years younger than Sale with far less wear on his tires.

 

.

 

And yet he has still lost more time due to injury. Sometimes, age is not the factor. Sometimes, neither is wear. That's why Johnny Venters had 3 TJ surgeries (and nearly a fourth) before he had 250 IP or a 30th birthday party. Yet Bartolo Colon pitched 3500 IP and until he was in his mid 40's without ever having one..

[moonslav59]

Sale has already shown he can pitch very well without top velocity.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And yet he has still lost more time due to injury. Sometimes, age is not the factor. Sometimes, neither is wear. That's why Johnny Venters had 3 TJ surgeries (and nearly a fourth) before he had 250 IP or a 30th birthday party. Yet Bartolo Colon pitched 3500 IP and until he was in his mid 40's without ever having one..

 

Colon reportedly had a 30th birthday party the year before his 31st. His claim to fame as a Red Sox was throwing out his back swinging from his ass, then turning in his uni and going home.

[Noles_1335]

Sale has already shown he can pitch very well without top velocity.

 

Throwing 90 is fine if you are Greg Maddux! The slider has always been his out pitch! Granted I’ve never been a MLB pitcher but I did blow my shoulder out, Bicep tendon, Labrum and rotator cuff and still can’t throw a ball more than 50’ without strain on the arm... imagine that whip action on surgically repaired elbow... esp when the bend on that thing! Again hope like hell I’m wrong... proof will be in the pudding!

[Bellhorn04]

Big market teams rarely find themselves in the scorched earth scenario that DD left them in while also staring up at 3 in division teams vastly better, deeper and with more farm assets . Also, Henry has never annually operated as a big market owner. He always seems to find a way to pull back and rebuild. And each time he has rebuilt, it has borne fruit. He just never had as daunting a rebuild ahead of him.

 

Henry has never operated as a big market owner? Intriguing take.

[notin]

Henry has never operated as a big market owner? Intriguing take.

 

Can you imagine what the 2018 payroll would have been if Henry did operate as a big market owner?

[Bellhorn04]

Can you imagine what the 2018 payroll would have been if Henry did operate as a big market owner?

 

Have to leave it to Jax to explain exactly how a big market owner operates.

[notin]

Have to leave it to Jax to explain exactly how a big market owner operates.

 

Or why the 2020 team was s much more daunting of a rebuild than the 2012 team...

[moonslav59]

Throwing 90 is fine if you are Greg Maddux! The slider has always been his out pitch! Granted I’ve never been a MLB pitcher but I did blow my shoulder out, Bicep tendon, Labrum and rotator cuff and still can’t throw a ball more than 50’ without strain on the arm... imagine that whip action on surgically repaired elbow... esp when the bend on that thing! Again hope like hell I’m wrong... proof will be in the pudding!

 

I'm not claiming he will be great and never get hurt again. I'm just saying, he has already shown he can pitch well without his highest velocity. (Plus, I'm not so sure he can't regain most of his velocity.)