2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[Kimmi]

Not sure why Bloom is looking to import a Japanese pitcher. I guess this Sawamura is a potential closer/reliever, as he has closed in Japan. His B-R page is incomplete...

 

I don't know anything about the guy, but from what little I've read, he sounds like a pretty good pitcher.

 

Red Sox Stats

@redsoxstats

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3m

Throw 96-99 mph with a splitter as his out pitch. Struggled to start last season and was traded, but returned to form with his new team posting a 1.71 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 21 innings with 29 strikeouts.

 

 

Also, no posting fee. I don't know what kind of deal they're working on, but the speculation has me excited.

[Kimmi]

"The 32-year-old (33 in April) has pitched to a 2.77 ERA with decent strikeout (22.0%) and walk (7.3%) rates in nine seasons at Japan’s highest level. "

[harmony]

So? Your responses are no longer making sense and one gets the impression you’re just trying to aggravate people.

 

Last year, Ryan Weber started the third game of the season. His status has changed. This was painfully clear in the response.

 

It’s like someone asking “are the Mariners ok in CF?” And you’re response “yes, they have the reigning rookie of the year in Kyle Lewis.” And then the person comes back with “but they kept Braden Bishop for a reason”...

The question was simply whether the Red Sox starters could go from dead last in 2020 fWAR across baseball to the projected fifth best in the American League. Forum members offered answers and the follow-up question was: How many starts will the Red Sox get from Eduardo Rodriguez, Garrett Richards, Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Nathan Eovaldi and Martin Perez in a 162-game season? Marcel projects those six pitchers will toss 623 innings in a 2020 season of roughly 1,458 innings.

 

Thank you for the responses.

[moonslav59]

You’re crazy if you think Paxton is better than either of them! Paxton coming off shoulder issues and a dying velocity... at least Walker and Tehran are innings eaters!

 

I'm crazy, then. It's not even close.

 

2018-2020

Paxton 27-13 3.97 331 IP

Walker 4-3 2.81 67 IP (How is this "eating innings?")

Teheran 19-24 4.39 382 IP (Wow, 51 more IP over 3 seasons)

 

If this makes me crazy, I'm a loon.

 

Odorizzi is my first choice.

 

Paxton is a distant second.

 

Teheran is a distant 3rd- close to Porcello. Walker is not even on my list.

 

[moonslav59]

The question was simply whether the Red Sox starters could go from dead last in 2020 fWAR across baseball to the projected fifth best in the American League. Forum members offered answers and the follow-up question was: How many starts will the Red Sox get from Eduardo Rodriguez, Garrett Richards, Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Nathan Eovaldi and Martin Perez in a 162-game season? Marcel projects those six pitchers will toss 623 innings in a 2020 season of roughly 1,458 innings.

 

Thank you for the responses.

 

Before I take a stab at your query, I want to point out that your 1458 IP point is a little misleading. In 2019, the Mets starters led MLB in IP with 941 IP. The 15th place team pitched 860 IP, so 623/860 looks a lot better than 623/1458. Plus, fangraphs is notorious for underestimating pitchers IP for all teams- not just the Sox.

 

I'm not expecting 200+ IP from any Sox starter, but we have 7 SP'ers capable of giving 100+ IP, except for maybe Sale, and none of them seem all that bad.

 

Here's my guess, at this point:

 

GS/IP Pitcher

27/170 ERod

26/170 Eovaldi

26/170 Richards

26/130 Perez

22/90 Pivetta

22/90 Houck

13/60 Sale

 

That gets us close to the mean for starters in 2019.

 

Of course, some on this list will get less,but some could get more.

 

[notin]

I'm crazy, then. It's not even close.

 

2018-2020

Paxton 27-13 3.97 331 IP

Walker 4-3 2.81 67 IP (How is this "eating innings?")

Teheran 19-24 4.39 382 IP (Wow, 51 more IP over 3 seasons)

 

If this makes me crazy, I'm a loon.

 

Odorizzi is my first choice.

 

Paxton is a distant second.

 

Teheran is a distant 3rd- close to Porcello. Walker is not even on my list.

 

 

The only thing is Walker’s favor over the others is age. But for a team already missing Sale and hoping to count on Eovaldi and Richards, Walker is not a good idea.

 

Now Porcello might be a good idea. And as it looks now, can probably be had for next to nothing. Oh and had his best season in Boston...

[harmony]

I'm crazy, then. It's not even close.

 

2018-2020

Paxton 27-13 3.97 331 IP

Walker 4-3 2.81 67 IP (How is this "eating innings?")

Teheran 19-24 4.39 382 IP (Wow, 51 more IP over 3 seasons)

 

If this makes me crazy, I'm a loon.

 

Odorizzi is my first choice.

 

Paxton is a distant second.

 

Teheran is a distant 3rd- close to Porcello. Walker is not even on my list.

 

Injuries limited 32-year-old James Paxton to 20.1 innings over five starts last year while 28-year-old Taijuan Walker tossed 53.1 innings in 11 starts.

 

Steamer, ZiPS and Marcel project Paxton with 142, 119.1 and 102 innings this year while projecting Walker with 163, 100 and 132 innings.

 

Each former Mariner has other ties to Seattle: Paxton is from nearly British Columbia and Walker's wife is originally from the Puget Sound area.

 

It will be interesting to see where Paxton and Walker land.

 

[moonslav59]

Injuries limited 32-year-old James Paxton to 20.1 innings over five starts last year while 28-year-old Taijuan Walker tossed 53.1 innings in 11 starts.

 

Steamer, ZiPS and Marcel project Paxton with 142, 119.1 and 102 innings this year while projecting Walker with 163, 100 and 132 innings.

 

Each former Mariner has other ties to Seattle: Paxton is from nearly British Columbia and Walker's wife is originally from the Puget Sound area.

 

It will be interesting to see where Paxton and Walker land.

 

 

You know me by now. I don't put much value in just the most recent tiny sample size.

 

You know Walker better than any of us.

 

Does "inning eater" come to your mind with him or Paxton?

 

(Yes, Teheran has pitched more than both, but Paxton pitches better.)

 

Also, I'm not the only one ranking Paxton higher than Walker & Teheran.

[harmony]

You know me by now. I don't put much value in just the most recent tiny sample size.

 

You know Walker better than any of us.

 

Does "inning eater" come to your mind with him or Paxton?

 

(Yes, Teheran has pitched more than both, but Paxton pitches better.)

 

Also, I'm not the only one ranking Paxton higher than Walker & Teheran.

James Paxton and Taijuan Walker are not innings-eaters at this point of their careers, especially Paxton.

 

MLB Trade Rumors ranked Paxton and Walker No. 22 and No. 23 on its offseason list of top free agents:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2021.html

 

... predicting a one-year, $10 million contract for Paxton and a two-year, $16 million contract for Walker.

 

Garrett Richards trailed at No. 24, Corey Kluber at No. 31 and Charlie Morton at No. 33.

[Swiharts Ghost]

I'm crazy, then. It's not even close.

 

2018-2020

Paxton 27-13 3.97 331 IP

Walker 4-3 2.81 67 IP (How is this "eating innings?")

Teheran 19-24 4.39 382 IP (Wow, 51 more IP over 3 seasons)

 

If this makes me crazy, I'm a loon.

 

Odorizzi is my first choice.

 

Paxton is a distant second.

 

Teheran is a distant 3rd- close to Porcello. Walker is not even on my list.

 

 

Pax is a damn good pitcher when healthy .I would go Pax Tehran Or in-house .

[harmony]

You know Walker better than any of us.

Taijuan Walker had Tommy John surgery in April 2018, pitched only one inning at any level in 2019 and then posted an ERA of 2.70 in 53.1 innings in 2020.

 

When Chris Sale underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2020, the lefthander was five-and-a-half years older than Walker was when the righthander had his TJ surgery.

 

Sale's timeline will be interesting to follow.

[moonslav59]

Taijuan Walker had Tommy John surgery in April 2018, pitched only one inning at any level in 2019 and then posted an ERA of 2.70 in 53.1 innings in 2020.

 

When Chris Sale underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2020, the lefthander was five-and-a-half years older than Walker was when the righthander had his TJ surgery.

 

Sale's timeline will be interesting to follow.

 

So, I guess that's a no. He's NOT an innings eater.

[moonslav59]

The only thing is Walker’s favor over the others is age. But for a team already missing Sale and hoping to count on Eovaldi and Richards, Walker is not a good idea.

 

Now Porcello might be a good idea. And as it looks now, can probably be had for next to nothing. Oh and had his best season in Boston...

 

If I'm looking for an innings eater with not much of a ceiling, I'd go with Porcello.

 

If I'm going for talent and the chance at 170 IP and maybe a 1 year deal: Paxton.

 

If I want the best of the remaining SP'ers and am willing to go 3 years and break the lux tax line: Odorizzi.

 

Teheran is not a bad choice. It's not like I wouldn't want him, if the others are a no-go, but I'd say no to Walker. We have enough returning from injury starters already.

[harmony]

So, I guess that's a no. He's NOT an innings eater.

In 2020, working out of a six-man rotation until August 27, Taijuan Walker ranked 72nd among all pitchers in innings pitched, just ahead of Garrett Richards and Blake Snell, among others.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=50&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2020-01-01&enddate=2020-12-31&sort=8,d&page=3_30

 

FWIW this poster has never described Taijuan Walker as an innings-eater.

[harmony]

Before I take a stab at your query, I want to point out that your 1458 IP point is a little misleading. In 2019, the Mets starters led MLB in IP with 941 IP. The 15th place team pitched 860 IP, so 623/860 looks a lot better than 623/1458. Plus, fangraphs is notorious for underestimating pitchers IP for all teams- not just the Sox.

 

I'm not expecting 200+ IP from any Sox starter, but we have 7 SP'ers capable of giving 100+ IP, except for maybe Sale, and none of them seem all that bad.

 

Here's my guess, at this point:

 

GS/IP Pitcher

27/170 ERod

26/170 Eovaldi

26/170 Richards

26/130 Perez

22/90 Pivetta

22/90 Houck

13/60 Sale

Nearly 33-year-old Garrett Richards has exceeded 168.2 innings once in his career with 207.1 way back in 2015.

 

Nearly 28-year-old Eduardo Rodriguez has exceeded 137.1 innings only once in his career with 203.1 in 2019, pre-myocarditis.

 

Nearly 31-year-old Nathan Eovaldi has exceeded 154.1 innings only once in his career with 199.2 way back in 2014.

 

Optimism abounds in some Red Sox corners.

[moonslav59]

Nearly 33-year-old Garrett Richards has exceeded 168.2 innings once in his career with 207.1 way back in 2015.

 

Nearly 28-year-old Eduardo Rodriguez has exceeded 137.1 innings only once in his career with 203.1 in 2019, pre-myocarditis.

 

Nearly 31-year-old Nathan Eovaldi has exceeded 154.1 innings only once in his career with 199.2 way back in 2014.

 

Optimism abounds in some Red Sox corners.

 

You act like 28, 31 and 33 are too old for 170 IP.

 

Pessimism abounds on the left coast.

 

If it makes you feel better, take 20-25 IP away from those three and add 15-20 to the next four. Certainly, that is doable.

 

It's not a long shot to think some mix of IP'd from our 7 SP'ers could equal 860 IP- the mean for 2019 rotations.

 

123 x 7 = 861.

[jacksonianmarch]

Eovaldi will miss time with an injury. Take it from a guy who frustratingly watched him on his own team. It’s just Nate being Nate.

 

ERod is a total mystery right now. His conditioning will be a tough thing to gauge. He was essentially relegated to bed rest for months.

 

I think Richards has the best chance to stay healthy. If you follow his injuries, he’s not really a guy with a lot of muscle pulls or back issues. He ruptured his patella tendon on a freak play and then refused TJS for a torn UCL and essentially burned 3 years to recover instead of 1.5. He also put in a full 2020 (what was allowed anyway) and showed high velo. He’s also a guy who’s anchored a rotation before

[Bellhorn04]

Eovaldi will miss time with an injury. Take it from a guy who frustratingly watched him on his own team. It’s just Nate being Nate.

 

Yeah, yeah, thanks for telling us again. We're not unaware of Nate's history or his Baseball-Reference page.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yeah, yeah, thanks for telling us again. We're not unaware of Nate's history or his Baseball-Reference page.

 

Maybe no one on this board is as skeptical about the Red Sox 2021 rotation as I am. Here's the rotation, as of now: #1 If, #2 If, #3 If, #4 If, #5 Martin Perez, #6 If.

 

But then, here's the rotation of everybody's preseason AL favorites: #1 Cole, #2 If, #3 If, #4 If, #5 If, #6 If. They look a sure thing.

[moonslav59]

Of course, there's a good chance Eovaldi spends time on the IL. His history suggests he has a much higher chance than most pitchers, but I still feel like it is hit or miss for 2021. One could argue he is due for a full season or near full season. It's not like he's very old or has had a recent injury that makes me think it will reoccur.

 

ERod is a tough one to project. While months of bedrest are not the best thing for conditioning, being in great condition is not really needed to be a great pitcher. Yes, it usually helps reduce injuries or the chances of injuries like those caused by running to 1B (his previous knee injury). There are big questions, for sure, but we've heard some encouraging things about his recovery.

 

Sale seems to have some people like Jacko saying he's toast, while others are hoping for his return in early July and maybe a return to near norm by year's end. The subject has been beaten to death, and nobody can really know.

 

I agree with Jacko on Richards probably being the best hope of the 4 to stay healthy and pitch well in 2021.

 

Perez, Pivetta and Houck may be forced to pitch a lot, although Houck's innings will probably be limited to 140 IP or so.

 

I hope we don't need to rely on Whitlock, Mazza, Seabold, Mata or others for too many starts, unless we are out of it early.

 

[moonslav59]

Maybe no one on this board is as skeptical about the Red Sox 2021 rotation as I am. Here's the rotation, as of now: #1 If, #2 If, #3 If, #4 If, #5 Martin Perez, #6 If.

 

But then, here's the rotation of everybody's preseason AL favorites: #1 Cole, #2 If, #3 If, #4 If, #5 If, #6 If. They look a sure thing.

 

Exactly, here's the pessimist view of the Yankee rotation.

 

Cole looks solid, which is better than only our 5th starter looking solid, then...

 

#2 Kluber: under 37 IP from 2019-2020

 

#3 Taillon: under 38 IP from 2019-2020

 

#4 Montgomery: under 75 IP from 2018-2020

 

#5 D Garcia: 34 IP, last year. 21 years old (111 IP in 2019 in the minors)

 

#6 M King: 85 IP from 2019-2020 (ML and minors) 27 IP, last year. 48 in 2019 (MLB + minors)

 

#7 D German: 0 IP, last year and 143 in 2019.

 

If you total up those IP of their #2 to #7 SP'ers from 2019-2020, it's less than our #2-#7 starers.

 

[mvp 78]

Yeah, yeah, thanks for telling us again. We're not unaware of Nate's history or his Baseball-Reference page.

 

Also, he's spent over 100 days on the IL/DL since coming here in 2018.

 

He's hit the 60 day IL/DL every year since 2016 except for last year's truncated season.

[mvp 78]

Of course, there's a good chance Eovaldi spends time on the IL. His history suggests he has a much higher chance than most pitchers, but I still feel like it is hit or miss for 2021. One could argue he is due for a full season or near full season. It's not like he's very old or has had a recent injury that makes me think it will reoccur.

 

ERod is a tough one to project. While months of bedrest are not the best thing for conditioning, being in great condition is not really needed to be a great pitcher. Yes, it usually helps reduce injuries or the chances of injuries like those caused by running to 1B (his previous knee injury). There are big questions, for sure, but we've heard some encouraging things about his recovery.

 

Sale seems to have some people like Jacko saying he's toast, while others are hoping for his return in early July and maybe a return to near norm by year's end. The subject has been beaten to death, and nobody can really know.

 

I agree with Jacko on Richards probably being the best hope of the 4 to stay healthy and pitch well in 2021.

 

Perez, Pivetta and Houck may be forced to pitch a lot, although Houck's innings will probably be limited to 140 IP or so.

 

I hope we don't need to rely on Whitlock, Mazza, Seabold, Mata or others for too many starts, unless we are out of it early.

 

 

If Seabold and Mata are both pitching, it means their development has been pretty damn good this year. Bloom has shown a willingness to go with AAAA guys for an extended period of time. He's not going to rush someone like Mata.

[Bellhorn04]

The Jays rotation has question marks too.

[notin]

Exactly, here's the pessimist view of the Yankee rotation.

 

Cole looks solid, which is better than only our 5th starter looking solid, then...

 

#2 Kluber: under 37 IP from 2019-2020

 

#3 Taillon: under 38 IP from 2019-2020

 

#4 Montgomery: under 75 IP from 2018-2020

 

#5 D Garcia: 34 IP, last year. 21 years old (111 IP in 2019 in the minors)

 

#6 M King: 85 IP from 2019-2020 (ML and minors) 27 IP, last year. 48 in 2019 (MLB + minors)

 

#7 D German: 0 IP, last year and 143 in 2019.

 

If you total up those IP of their #2 to #7 SP'ers from 2019-2020, it's less than our #2-#7 starers.

 

 

We probably should be fair and point out that the reason for German's lower IP is in a very different class than that of the reduced totals for Kluber, Taillon, Montogomery, and Severino. Unless you think German is incorrigible and will be a repeat offender, which is certainly possible. Not like we know the guy...

[notin]

The Jays rotation has question marks too.

 

And the Rays. It's not like replacing Snell with Archer kept them atop the division...

[moonslav59]

And the Rays. It's not like replacing Snell with Archer kept them atop the division...

 

No Morton, either.

 

And Chirinos is out all year.

[mvp 78]

And the Rays. It's not like replacing Snell with Archer kept them atop the division...

 

Archer is also replacing Charlie Morton, Jalen Beeks and Yonny Chirinos.

[notin]

Archer is also replacing Charlie Morton, Jalen Beeks and Yonny Chirinos.

 

That's a mighty tall order. And it makes me think you have completely forgotten about the immortal Mike Wacha.

 

Wacha might be immortal, but his elbow certainly is not...

[moonslav59]

That's a mighty tall order. And it makes me think you have completely forgotten about the immortal Mike Wacha.

 

Wacha might be immortal, but his elbow certainly is not...

 

So, basically Archer & Wacha replacing Snell, Morton, Chirinos & Beeks.

 

Wonderful!