2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Pass on Reddick.

 

He's another lefty, anyway. For a low budget acquisition, I'd take Marisnick, to platoon/mentor Duran in centerfielding (as a converted infielder).

[moonslav59]

Can the Red Sox find a trade partner that assigns a similar value to Bobby Dalbec (and his projected 36 percent strikeout rate)?

 

The Red Sox may well pursue Atlanta centerfielder Ender Inciarte, whom ZiPS projects with a 2021 WAR of 1.7, which in 2019 was valued at about $13 million.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ender-inciarte/4922/stats?position=OF#zips-3-year-projections

 

The Braves may balk at that exchange.

 

Or not.

 

The idea takes into account the Braves usual desire to keep their budget as low as possible, and the fact that they have a deep roster with few specific needs- like 3B.

[moonslav59]

I think Bloom adds an outfielder or two, depending on the fates of JBJ and Beni, but I think it will be a righty stick, since the entire projected starting outfield, plus Jarren Duran when/if he makes it, are all lefty swingers. So that may rule out guys like Inciarte and Gordon, among others. There are not actually many free agent centerfielders that bat righthanded, just Pillar and Marisnick? https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/09/2020-21-mlb-free-agents.html

 

That is, of course, unless Cora comes back and somehow recruits Springer, Reddick or Marwin Gonzalez for a roster spot...

 

Due to all the lefties, I think a returning Pillar is more likely than JBJ.

[mvp 78]

Due to all the lefties, I think a returning Pillar is more likely than JBJ.

 

And then deal him at the deadline again.

[moonslav59]

And then deal him at the deadline again.

 

Assuming we're out of it, yes.

 

That also speaks to the possibility of Bloom not signing any big names but signing 8-11 low to moderate ones to short deals. If we are out of it, we can trade many of them and build the farm up a little that way.

 

Here's the farm hands Bloom added in deals, so far:

(Ranking by soxprospects.com)

2. Downs (Betts)

11. Rosario (Moreland)

12. Seabold (Workman/Hembree)

15. Potts (Moreland)

19. Wong (Betts)

20. Wallace (Pillar)

 

Non-farm major trade additioins:

Verdugo (Betts)

Pivetta (Workman/Hembree)

 

Edited October 14, 2020 by moonslav59

[harmony]

The idea takes into account the Braves usual desire to keep their budget as low as possible, and the fact that they have a deep roster with few specific needs- like 3B.

ZiPS projects Bobby Dalbec with a 2021 WAR of 0.8 in 121 games and a 2022 WAR of 0.7 in 120 games:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/bobby-dalbec/19966/stats?position=1B#zips-3-year-projections

 

ZiPS projects Atlanta third baseman Austin Riley, who is 21 months younger than Dalbec, with a 2021 WAR of 1.8 in 124 games and a 2022 WAR of 2.0 in 125 games:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/austin-riley/18360/stats?position=3B/OF#zips-3-year-projections

 

Dalbec and Riley have similarly lukewarm defensive profiles at third base.

 

https://www.soxprospects.com/players/dalbec-bobby.htm

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/called-up-austin-riley/

[notin]

ZiPS projects Bobby Dalbec with a 2021 WAR of 0.8 in 121 games and a 2022 WAR of 0.7 in 120 games:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/bobby-dalbec/19966/stats?position=1B#zips-3-year-projections

 

ZiPS projects Atlanta third baseman Austin Riley, who is 21 months younger than Dalbec, with a 2021 WAR of 1.8 in 124 games and a 2022 WAR of 2.0 in 125 games:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/austin-riley/18360/stats?position=3B/OF#zips-3-year-projections

 

Dalbec and Riley have similarly lukewarm defensive profiles at third base.

 

https://www.soxprospects.com/players/dalbec-bobby.htm

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/called-up-austin-riley/

 

The Braves may have little to no interest in Dalbec or have rediscovered the faith in Riley they lost last season as a 3B.

 

But one thing is certain - they would like to move Inciarte. While the Braves do operate on a budget greater than the Rays and Royals, they are very unlikely to want a $9mill fourth outfielder.

 

CErtainly pitching is something they - and any team hoping to compete - is looking for. The Sox have very little to spare. While BTV would approve of an Eovaldi/Inciarte swap, it would certainly help the Sox more to make a deal along the lines of Perez for Inciarte and Kyle Wright. This deal also works on BTV and is probably about the simplest deal between both teams that works out and makes sense. Atlanta might be a bit hesitant to take on the additional $25 million for Eovaldi, especially given his injury history. Perez gives them a decent starter and saves them money while only unloading an expensive defensive replacement who won't even be needed for that function if Pache takes over CF.

 

Now it does have the issue of leaving another void in the Sox rotation...

[moonslav59]

The Braves may have little to no interest in Dalbec or have rediscovered the faith in Riley they lost last season as a 3B.

 

But one thing is certain - they would like to move Inciarte. While the Braves do operate on a budget greater than the Rays and Royals, they are very unlikely to want a $9mill fourth outfielder.

 

CErtainly pitching is something they - and any team hoping to compete - is looking for. The Sox have very little to spare. While BTV would approve of an Eovaldi/Inciarte swap, it would certainly help the Sox more to make a deal along the lines of Perez for Inciarte and Kyle Wright. This deal also works on BTV and is probably about the simplest deal between both teams that works out and makes sense. Atlanta might be a bit hesitant to take on the additional $25 million for Eovaldi, especially given his injury history. Perez gives them a decent starter and saves them money while only unloading an expensive defensive replacement who won't even be needed for that function if Pache takes over CF.

 

Now it does have the issue of leaving another void in the Sox rotation...

 

Eovaldi's next injury- near a certainty- will leave a void, too.

[mvp 78]

Eovaldi's next injury- near a certainty- will leave a void, too.

 

Or not.

[notin]

Eovaldi's next injury- near a certainty- will leave a void, too.

 

Make him a closer/high leverage reliever...

[mvp 78]

Make him a closer/high leverage reliever...

 

Need to sign a few starters first.

[moonslav59]

Or not.

 

It's only a question of when, not if.

[harmony]

It's only a question of when, not if.

That limits the trade market for Nathan Eovaldi, who will likely return to the Red Sox next season.

[Bellhorn04]

That limits the trade market for Nathan Eovaldi, who will likely return to the Red Sox next season.

 

Ha, I can never get enough of hearing about Nathan's under water contract.

 

BTW, if every negative contract is described as under water, what should we call positive contracts - hovercrafts?

[harmony]

A Seattle blogger suggests the Mariners should target Chris Archer if the Pittsburgh Pirates decline the 2021 team option of $11 million on the righthander:

 

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2020/10/13/21512486/seattle-mariners-2021-free-agent-target-chris-archer

 

If a free agent, would Archer be of interest to the Red Sox? If the Bucs exercise the team option, would Archer be a trade target for the Sox?

[moonslav59]

A Seattle blogger suggests the Mariners should target Chris Archer if the Pittsburgh Pirates decline the 2021 team option of $11 million on the righthander:

 

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2020/10/13/21512486/seattle-mariners-2021-free-agent-target-chris-archer

 

If a free agent, would Archer be of interest to the Red Sox? If the Bucs exercise the team option, would Archer be a trade target for the Sox?

 

BTV accepted Chavis for Archer, Polanco, Frazier & Oliva

[notin]

BTV accepted Chavis for Archer, Polanco, Frazier & Oliva

 

Not so sure Archer gets traded, and the Sox might be better off waiting to see if he hits the market.

 

Bloom obviously knows Archer from their stint together in Tampa. But he did deal him away despite the favorable contract, so my thoughts are he’s not a likely acquisition....

[notin]

Need to sign a few starters first.

 

Both areas need help. Fix what you can with what you have before bringing in other puzzle pieces...

[moonslav59]

Not so sure Archer gets traded, and the Sox might be better off waiting to see if he hits the market.

 

Bloom obviously knows Archer from their stint together in Tampa. But he did deal him away despite the favorable contract, so my thoughts are he’s not a likely acquisition....

 

The Rays often trade players "just in time." Their players usually door poorly after being traded.

 

Conversely, players they trade for often have a career year or two with them.

 

Yes, they traded Archer during a "favorable contract, " but $6-11M a year is a lot for them.

[moonslav59]

Not so sure Archer gets traded, and the Sox might be better off waiting to see if he hits the market.

 

Bloom obviously knows Archer from their stint together in Tampa. But he did deal him away despite the favorable contract, so my thoughts are he’s not a likely acquisition....

 

I'm not sure he's worth the $11M option. He's been pretty bad for 2 years, now. I'd put his trade value at close to zero. If Bloom does not like him, then pass. Pitt won't take the option unless they can trade him. They won't pay him that much.

[harmony]

I'm not sure he's worth the $11M option. He's been pretty bad for 2 years, now. I'd put his trade value at close to zero. If Bloom does not like him, then pass. Pitt won't take the option unless they can trade him. They won't pay him that much.

From the Seattle blog:

... Archer has expressed that Seattle is one of his favorite road stops to spend time in, and he particularly enjoys the rich literary culture of the city. The civic-minded Archer, who often posts on Twitter about social justice issues, would also find himself in a clubhouse and larger city culture that supports those ideals and encourages self-expression among players. Specifically, he would lend not only veteran leadership to Seattle’s young pitching staff, but also bring his experience as a person of color navigating MLB to the team with the highest number of Black players in the league ...

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2020/10/13/21512486/seattle-mariners-2021-free-agent-target-chris-archer

[Larry Cook]

Does signing free agent pitcher jose Quintana make sense for us?

 

He was not great with the Cubs, but how would he do back in the American League?

 

Lester and Quintana would not break the bank, and could round out our rotation.

[notin]

The Rays often trade players "just in time." Their players usually door poorly after being traded.

 

Conversely, players they trade for often have a career year or two with them.

 

Yes, they traded Archer during a "favorable contract, " but $6-11M a year is a lot for them.

 

When the Rays traded Archer away, he was in his final 3 years of a deal that paid him $22 million. That's far less than they are currently paying Kevin Kiermaier. They dealt Archer away because they felt the value of what they would receive in return for him was greater than Archer's ability and future production. In short, someone in that organization (Bloom?) felt Archer was overrated...

[mvp 78]

A Seattle blogger suggests the Mariners should target Chris Archer if the Pittsburgh Pirates decline the 2021 team option of $11 million on the righthander:

 

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2020/10/13/21512486/seattle-mariners-2021-free-agent-target-chris-archer

 

If a free agent, would Archer be of interest to the Red Sox? If the Bucs exercise the team option, would Archer be a trade target for the Sox?

 

I'd trade for him, but I wouldn't give up much. I do think the Pirates would be better off picking up the option and moving him at some point. If they decline the option, they are a more hopeless franchise that I imagined.

[mvp 78]

Does signing free agent pitcher jose Quintana make sense for us?

 

He was not great with the Cubs, but how would he do back in the American League?

 

Lester and Quintana would not break the bank, and could round out our rotation.

 

Moving from the NL to the AL typically makes a pitcher worse. Lester would be here just to help the younger guys. He's got nothing left. They only bring him in if they are punting on 2021.

[mvp 78]

When the Rays traded Archer away, he was in his final 3 years of a deal that paid him $22 million. That's far less than they are currently paying Kevin Kiermaier. They dealt Archer away because they felt the value of what they would receive in return for him was greater than Archer's ability and future production. In short, someone in that organization (Bloom?) felt Archer was overrated...

 

Or they believed that a combination of Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow would be better long term.

 

They were right.

[Thunder]

Or they believed that a combination of Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow would be better long term.

 

They were right.

 

At this point, it's pretty obvious that the Rays won that trade. I haven't heard anything from Archer in a few years now.

[notin]

Moving from the NL to the AL typically makes a pitcher worse. Lester would be here just to help the younger guys. He's got nothing left. They only bring him in if they are punting on 2021.

 

Well, when the universal DH is adopted in 2022, this will no longer be the case...

[mvp 78]

Well, when the universal DH is adopted in 2022, this will no longer be the case...

 

Are you trying to talk dirty to me?

[notin]

Or they believed that a combination of Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow would be better long term.

 

They were right.

 

And they believed that combination was better because Archer was overrated. At some point, you have to acknowledge that Pittsburgh believed there to be at least equal value in this trade, which means they had more faith on Archer than he deserved. Which is the very definition of the word "overrated."