2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[kenmeister]

You go for a guy like Bauer when you have a team that can win the WS.

 

The Sox pitching staff without Bauer is led by a guy who won’t be returning until the ASB and probably won’t be back to his peak until September in Sale. Your #2 is a guy with COVID myocarditis who was just cleared to walk. Beyond those two are rotation stalwarts Eovaldi and Perez with the promising Houck as the 5. If Sale has even a minor setback, he’s done for 2021. ERod is in uncharted waters here. So you could theoretically go get Bauer for the 9 year $35 mil deal he’s gunning for and be stuck with ERod as a pending FA who could be on the shelf and a post TJS starter returning a year after and then a bunch of s***. In the ALE. The timing makes zero sense. Bauer could be all washed up in 2-3 years. The Sox could be title contenders outside of the fact that he’s an albatross. Bauer would be a bad, bad decidion

 

Bauer says he only wants 1 year deals. So now it makes even less sense, but I have my eye on him for 2022 if Sale is healthy. That would be a nice 1-2 punch.

[notin]

Bauer says he only wants 1 year deals. So now it makes even less sense, but I have my eye on him for 2022 if Sale is healthy. That would be a nice 1-2 punch.

 

That was his attitude through arbitration, where he simply refused to sign an extension, as they are often considered "team friendly." But has he said the same about free agency?

[mvp 78]

That was his attitude through arbitration, where he simply refused to sign an extension, as they are often considered "team friendly." But has he said the same about free agency?

 

Gammons believes the next contract will be for 1 year. I don't buy it though.

[notin]

Gammons believes the next contract will be for 1 year. I don't buy it though.

 

I could see that for this season if the predictions are true that the market will be suppressed by the economic picture of 2020 and no guarantee of anything better in 2021. But only for this year.

 

And even then, if someone throws an 8 year $250mill contract at him, his thought process on only signing one year deals might find itself to be very challenged...

[mvp 78]

I could see that for this season if the predictions are true that the market will be suppressed by the economic picture of 2020 and no guarantee of anything better in 2021. But only for this year.

 

And even then, if someone throws an 8 year $250mill contract at him, his thought process on only signing one year deals might find itself to be very challenged...

 

If someone says "I'll give you 1/35" maybe he takes it? Shouldn't be the Sox though.

[notin]

If someone says "I'll give you 1/35" maybe he takes it? Shouldn't be the Sox though.

 

I'd rather sign him for 1/$35mill than 8/$250mill.

 

The team might not do much in his one year here, but his contract won't be the reason why. The same cannot necessarily be said about the other offer 8 years from now...

[notin]

Of course, the prevailing logic is the Sox will be out on Bauer since he is one free agent guaranteed to get a QO. (Realmuto, Springer and Ozuna might be the only other ones who get one.)

 

I'm not sure this is true. While the Sox would lose their second round pick, they would still have a first round pick. Hit on that and your draft is fine...

[mvp 78]

I'd rather sign him for 1/$35mill than 8/$250mill.

 

The team might not do much in his one year here, but his contract won't be the reason why. The same cannot necessarily be said about the other offer 8 years from now...

 

Well, I just read an article about how the Sox ratings declined more than any other team in MLB. Maybe they would want to dump money on him for one year? IDK.

 

I'm not sure I'd want him for 8 years either. I'd rather pay him more over a shorter term like 5 years.

[mvp 78]

Of course, the prevailing logic is the Sox will be out on Bauer since he is one free agent guaranteed to get a QO. (Realmuto, Springer and Ozuna might be the only other ones who get one.)

 

I'm not sure this is true. While the Sox would lose their second round pick, they would still have a first round pick. Hit on that and your draft is fine...

 

A high second rounder has a little value, probably more than just one year of Bauer.

[jacksonianmarch]

Bauer may buck convention, but as a pitcher, he’d be f***ing stupid to go year to hear, especially after the season he’s had.

[mvp 78]

Bauer may buck convention, but as a pitcher, he’d be f***ing stupid to go year to hear, especially after the season he’s had.

 

Agreed.

[notin]

A high second rounder has a little value, probably more than just one year of Bauer.

 

But one year of Bauer likely generates another pick from the QO the Sox would then extend to him...

[notin]

Bauer may buck convention, but as a pitcher, he’d be f***ing stupid to go year to hear, especially after the season he’s had.

 

It could very easily cost him a lot of money. But he is already pretty wealthy with career earnings in excess of $47mill. Maybe he just likes having control of where he pitches every year? Or maybe people are misunderstanding his arbitration year strategy and assuming he would do this throughout free agency as well?

 

I think he signs long term for the right offer. Especially if it's for more than Gerrit Cole is making...

[Bellhorn04]

But one year of Bauer likely generates another pick from the QO the Sox would then extend to him...

 

If the plan was to only have him for one year, that would be great! But also a bit strange.

[mvp 78]

But one year of Bauer likely generates another pick from the QO the Sox would then extend to him...

 

Well, it pushes the pick further down the road when you need a talent infusion now. Also, maybe the QO changes with the CBA?

[notin]

Well, it pushes the pick further down the road when you need a talent infusion now. Also, maybe the QO changes with the CBA?

 

It might, but the idea of draft pick compensation for free agent loss is likely not going away altogether. It's been around a lot longer than qualifying offers...

[harmony]

Bauer may buck convention, but as a pitcher, he’d be f***ing stupid to go year to hear, especially after the season he’s had.

From September 17:

 

 

... and an earlier position:

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2019/02/14/trevor-bauer-Guardians-contracts-free-agent/2874691002/

[notin]

From September 17:

 

 

... and an earlier position:

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2019/02/14/trevor-bauer-Guardians-contracts-free-agent/2874691002/

 

But then all of those statements were made before anyone made him some sort of 8 year $250-300 mill offer.

 

Sometimes a lot of 0's can change a person's priorities.

 

Or not...

[notin]

And of course, Bauer is trolling the Sox as we speak

 

 

 

(Technically he cannot talk to them yet, and I am sure he and everyone involved is well aware of this.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Acquiring an ace, no matter your place... in the standings: an ace pitcher is the first step in turning around a franchise.

 

Yes, he can elevate a contender to a title team, but he can also go a long way in solidifying a loser to competitor, and pretender to contender. Number crunchers just have to stop looking at this one pitcher's stats, and consider the other, intangible ways he may boost a club... some of which include instilling a winning confidence in the defense behind him, taking the pressure off his offense, and resting a bullpen; not to mention inspiring/and-or teaching the rest of the rotation how to win.

 

Evidence in every decade of my lifetime as a fan: Jim Lonborg in the 1960s, Luis Tiant in the 1970s, Roger Clemens in the 1980s, Pedro Martinez in the 1990s+, Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett in the 2000s, Chris Sale in the 2010s. Each completely changed the narrative in Boston, a place where heavy hitters were always prevalent, but often lacked the pitching to go very far...

[oldtimer]

Acquiring an ace, no matter your place... in the standings: an ace pitcher is the first step in turning around a franchise.

 

Yes, he can elevate a contender to a title team, but he can also go a long way in solidifying a loser to competitor, and pretender to contender. Number crunchers just have to stop looking at this one pitcher's stats, and consider the other, intangible ways he may boost a club... some of which include instilling a winning confidence in the defense behind him, taking the pressure off his offense, and resting a bullpen; not to mention inspiring/and-or teaching the rest of the rotation how to win.

 

Evidence in every decade of my lifetime as a fan: Jim Lonborg in the 1960s, Luis Tiant in the 1970s, Roger Clemens in the 1980s, Pedro Martinez in the 1990s+, Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett in the 2000s, Chris Sale in the 2010s. Each completely changed the narrative in Boston, a place where heavy hitters were always prevalent, but often lacked the pitching to go very far...

 

Pitchers tend to be fragile. Contracting aces seems to take high dollars over long periods. It's a high risk game, and one I think Bloom is hoping to avoid. He is looking for consistent competitiveness and I am satisfied to wait and see what he comes up with. I doubt it involves Bauer.

[Kimmi]

He's hinted before he'd be open to playing in Boston. I would absolutely pay the price for him. He is a hell of a pitcher.

 

No thank you. I'm not willing to pay the price that he is likely to command.

[Kimmi]

World Series or not, whoever signs Bauer is going to hate his deal at some point. Just like you Yankee fans will with Cole and did with ARod.

 

But free agency isn’t about titles and timing. It’s about PR and ticket sales (normally). The “timing is right” on Bauer or anyone similar when 1) he’s available and 2) you can afford him. End of story.

 

I don’t care if they pass personally...

 

That is Larry Lucchino mentality and will get you in trouble every time. Free agency should be all about wins, not about ticket sales.

 

Timing has a lot to do with it. The timing is not right for a big splash.

[Kimmi]

Well, I just read an article about how the Sox ratings declined more than any other team in MLB. Maybe they would want to dump money on him for one year? IDK.

 

I'm not sure I'd want him for 8 years either. I'd rather pay him more over a shorter term like 5 years.

 

I would sign him for a short term deal, including a one year deal, though not at $35 million. Four years or less.

[Bellhorn04]

That is Larry Lucchino mentality and will get you in trouble every time. Free agency should be all about wins, not about ticket sales.

 

But ticket sales are also important to the business of running a team.

[harmony]

The Over the Monster podcast on a Red Sox offseason plan:

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2020/10/6/21503877/boston-red-sox-podcast-offseason-preview-chaim-bloom-alex-cora-manager-search

[mvp 78]

But ticket sales are also important to the business of running a team.

 

Ticket sales have NOT been an issue in over 20 years though?

[Bellhorn04]

Ticket sales have NOT been an issue in over 20 years though?

 

It would be ticket sales plus NESN viewership, in the case of the Red Sox.

[moonslav59]

Therein lies the dilemma. Valdez had the best season, but it looks less sustainable.

 

Isn't that something else TB has been known for for years?

 

Getting marginal players to have a career year- sometimes 2-3 with them, then bye-bye.

[notin]

I expect Bloom to sign free agents, just not major ones to big, long term deals. Basically take the same approach Cherington took prior to 2013, but not with as many free agents.

 

Some potentially undervalued players include James McCann, a former All Star catcher that the White Sox are extremely unlikely to re-sign (as they have Yasmani Grandal at the position). McCann has grown as a hitter the last 2 years and also does do the job on the defensive metrics, with 9 DRS in the last two years, and 1150 innings. Comparatively, Christian Vazquez has 6 DRS in the same time frame with 1274 innings behind the plate. So a potential move might be to sign McCann and move Vazquez for a pitcher.

 

On the pitching front, I would expect him to ignore Bauer (because the QO impacts the simultaneous farm system build) and maybe look at Stroman or Jose Quintana. Both are essentially the same pitcher, but Stroman is RH and 2 years younger, but that age difference might translate into a bigger contract for more money and years.

 

If the Sox sign an outfielder, Joc Pederson might be in play. Pederson has the glaring weakness of not hitting lefties, but if he is signed to play LF, the Sox have an in-house answer in Chavis, who can't do anything except hit lefties. Of course, that last part would mean they either gave up on Benintendi or made the unwise decision to move Beni to CF...