2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[dgalehouse]

My son still uses his Orioles alarm clock he got on Orioles Alarm Clock giveaway night.

 

It's hard to disagree, but saying "avoid big FA albatross contracts" is always easy to say in hindsight.

 

How did we know beforehand, that the Manny signing was going to bring us our first 2 rings, but other big signings were going to implode as early as year one? It's a crapshoot.

 

All of our rings involved having and NEEDING at least one massive contract on the team. Can teams win without one or two? Yes, but they are rarities.

 

People point to the 2013 season as "the model" on how to win without signing massive contracts, but don't forget the 3 last place finishes surrounding that season. Also, while Lackey's $16M a year deal does not look "massive," now, it was a pretty big signing back then, and many felt it was an albatross signing after the first 2-3 years.

 

Your points are all correct, but I think signing a big name here and there is usually needed to get a team over the hump. If we swing and miss, yes, it hurts for years to come, but without some of our biggest signings, we may still be ringless.

 

That's life . Sometimes you have to take a chance . No guts - No glory.

[jacksonianmarch]

You don’t rebuild through free agency. You supplement through FA. Bloom isn’t going to follow bad money with more bad money. He’ll likely get a piece or two that will be with the Sox into their good times, but anyone expecting a buying spree will be massively underwhelmed, imo

[mvp 78]

You don’t rebuild through free agency. You supplement through FA. Bloom isn’t going to follow bad money with more bad money. He’ll likely get a piece or two that will be with the Sox into their good times, but anyone expecting a buying spree will be massively underwhelmed, imo

 

I think most people on here are going to bitch about the types of moves made this offseason. We should start mailing paper bags for people to breathe into.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think most people on here are going to bitch about the types of moves made this offseason. We should start mailing paper bags for people to breathe into.

 

Bloom may benefit with a plan of a meticulous and prudent rebuild if he doesn't have to worry about 35,000 booing fans -- or if many of those fans choose instead to dress as empty seats. Otherwise...

[moonslav59]

That's life . Sometimes you have to take a chance . No guts - No glory.

 

Agreed. I realize that when yo swing and miss, like with CC and Pablo-HRam, the results can be devastating, but guess what? We found a way to win shortly after those disastrous signings, anyway.

 

We were able to dump CC and cut Pablo & HRam loose and still win rings.

 

That being said, huge signings should not be made willy-nilly.

[harmony]

What does this Trevor Bauer tweet mean?

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/BauerOutage/status/1312869549067231232/photo/1

[Jasonbay44]

What does this Trevor Bauer tweet mean?

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/BauerOutage/status/1312869549067231232/photo/1

 

He's hinted before he'd be open to playing in Boston. I would absolutely pay the price for him. He is a hell of a pitcher.

[moonslav59]

He's hinted before he'd be open to playing in Boston. I would absolutely pay the price for him. He is a hell of a pitcher.

 

Wouldn't he say that just to add another team to drive up the price?

[Jasonbay44]

Wouldn't he say that just to add another team to drive up the price?

 

I doubt that will have much impact. Its not a secret that Bauer will have a lot of suitors and will make a lot of money.

[mvp 78]

He wants to get paid. He won’t be worth the money but he’d be fun as hell to watch.

[Swiharts Ghost]

He wants to get paid. He won’t be worth the money but he’d be fun as hell to watch.

 

He’s by far the best pitcher we could hope for cut the s*** this is not your money and they print it .You are welcome in Boston day one TB and can’t wait for this to kick off another World Series Run .People stop just stop the sky is falling BS be happy don’t fear so much and push off for once .

Edited October 5, 2020 by Swiharts Ghost

[jacksonianmarch]

You go for a guy like Bauer when you have a team that can win the WS.

 

The Sox pitching staff without Bauer is led by a guy who won’t be returning until the ASB and probably won’t be back to his peak until September in Sale. Your #2 is a guy with COVID myocarditis who was just cleared to walk. Beyond those two are rotation stalwarts Eovaldi and Perez with the promising Houck as the 5. If Sale has even a minor setback, he’s done for 2021. ERod is in uncharted waters here. So you could theoretically go get Bauer for the 9 year $35 mil deal he’s gunning for and be stuck with ERod as a pending FA who could be on the shelf and a post TJS starter returning a year after and then a bunch of s***. In the ALE. The timing makes zero sense. Bauer could be all washed up in 2-3 years. The Sox could be title contenders outside of the fact that he’s an albatross. Bauer would be a bad, bad decidion

[mvp 78]

He’s by far the best pitcher we could hope for cut the s*** this is not your money and they print it .You are welcome in Boston day one TB and can’t wait for this to kick off another World Series Run .People stop just stop the sky is falling BS be happy don’t fear so much and push off for once .

 

If they print money, where is Mookie?

[cp176]

He’s by far the best pitcher we could hope for cut the s*** this is not your money and they print it .You are welcome in Boston day one TB and can’t wait for this to kick off another World Series Run .People stop just stop the sky is falling BS be happy don’t fear so much and push off for once .

 

I would hope that they would do their due diligence and sign the players that they will need. if and when things return to anything that resembles normal, JH will have to put together a semi-quality team if he expects people to fill those tiny little seats again. it is going to be exciting to watch our young pitchers develop but that alone won't be enough to attract the average fan.

[notin]

You go for a guy like Bauer when you have a team that can win the WS.

 

The Sox pitching staff without Bauer is led by a guy who won’t be returning until the ASB and probably won’t be back to his peak until September in Sale. Your #2 is a guy with COVID myocarditis who was just cleared to walk. Beyond those two are rotation stalwarts Eovaldi and Perez with the promising Houck as the 5. If Sale has even a minor setback, he’s done for 2021. ERod is in uncharted waters here. So you could theoretically go get Bauer for the 9 year $35 mil deal he’s gunning for and be stuck with ERod as a pending FA who could be on the shelf and a post TJS starter returning a year after and then a bunch of s***. In the ALE. The timing makes zero sense. Bauer could be all washed up in 2-3 years. The Sox could be title contenders outside of the fact that he’s an albatross. Bauer would be a bad, bad decidion

 

World Series or not, whoever signs Bauer is going to hate his deal at some point. Just like you Yankee fans will with Cole and did with ARod.

 

But free agency isn’t about titles and timing. It’s about PR and ticket sales (normally). The “timing is right” on Bauer or anyone similar when 1) he’s available and 2) you can afford him. End of story.

 

I don’t care if they pass personally...

[jacksonianmarch]

Exactly. There’s a strong chance that in the not too distant future that Cole’s deal becomes an albatross. Hence, you get him to win that first year or two. The Sox aren’t built to win next year, so you’ll burn a high value year by signing him

[Bellhorn04]

Boston Red Sox payroll 2021: Chaim Bloom will enter MLB free agency a projected $36M below $210M base threshold

By Christopher Smith | csmith@masslive.com

 

How much payroll the Red Sox will add this offseason in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic remains unclear.

 

All organizations experienced significant revenue losses in 2020 because of no gate receipts and TV money being down during the shortened 60-game schedule.

 

Team president Sam Kennedy is uncertain whether COVID-19 also will limit attendance at Fenway Park in 2021.

 

“Will it (COVID-19) have an impact on our budget? Yes, of course it will because of the devastating impact it has had on our revenues this year,” Kennedy said last Tuesday. “Obviously, next year is uncertain. That said, I don’t know what the outlook for 2021 is yet with respect to the virus. As that becomes clear, we’ll be able to act in real time and make decisions.”

 

The Red Sox reset their luxury tax penalties by slashing the 2020 payroll below the Competitive Balance Tax threshold.

 

As of right now, the 2021 payroll is approximately $36 million below the $210 million Competitive Balance Tax base threshold. MassLive.com estimated it at $173.675 million — give or take a few million dollars — entering this offseason before any free agent signings and trades.

 

It’s likely the Red Sox will be active in free agency and the trade market despite the uncertainty heading into next year. Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the CDC, said he doesn’t anticipate a vaccine will be “generally available to the American public” until “late second quarter, third quarter of 2021.” Going by that timetable, Fenway Park might not be filled to full capacity until July 2021 or later.

 

“There’s a long-term view,” Kennedy said. “We know we’re going to withstand operating losses and we’re prepared for that, planning for that. I think you’ll see the Red Sox continue to invest in our baseball operation the way we have for the last 20 years.”

Red Sox 2021 estimated payroll breakdown: approximately $173.675 million

 

Guaranteed contracts: David Price (Red Sox pay $16 million of his $31 million AAV), Chris Sale ($25.60 million), J.D. Martinez ($19.375 million), Xander Bogaerts ($20 million), Nathan Eovaldi ($16.88 million); Dustin Pedroia ($13.3 million), Christian Vazquez ($4.52 million), *Martin Perez ($6.5 million). Total: $122.175

 

* Perez has a $6.25 million team option and $500,000 buyout for 2021.

 

Arbitration contracts: Eduardo Rodriguez ($10 million estimated), Andrew Benintendi ($5 million), Matt Barnes ($4 million estimated), Kevin Plawecki ($1.5 million estimated), Rafael Devers ($6 million estimated, Austin Brice ($1 million estimated), Ryan Brasier ($1 million estimated). Total: $28.5 million estimated

 

Arbitration eligible but likely to be non-tendered: Jose Peraza, Zack Godley, Andrew Triggs, Dylan Covey.

 

Pre-arbitration players: Yoan Aybar, Colten Brewer, Matt Hall, Kyle Hart, Darwinzon Hernandez, Tanner Houck, Mike Kickham, Robinson Leyer, Chris Mazza, Yairo Muñoz, Nick Pivetta, Jeffrey Springs, Robert Stock, Domingo Tapia, Josh Taylor, Phillips Valdez, Marcus Walden, Ryan Weber, Deivy Grullón, Jonathan Arauz, Christian Arroyo, C.J. Chatham, Michael Chavis, Bobby Dalbec, Tzu-Wei Lin, César Puello, Alex Verdugo, Marcus Wilson. Approximate Total: $8 million.

 

Other costs: Add another approximately $15 million for medical costs, health benefits, spring training allowances, moving and traveling expenses, etc. That’s all included in the CBT. Approximate Total: $15 million.

[mvp 78]

Covey is slightly better than Brice IMO. I think they nontender more than 4 guys.

[mvp 78]

He’s by far the best pitcher we could hope for cut the s*** this is not your money and they print it .You are welcome in Boston day one TB and can’t wait for this to kick off another World Series Run .People stop just stop the sky is falling BS be happy don’t fear so much and push off for once .

 

Also, no one on here thinks the sky is falling. We're just aware that the Sox have tried to manage payroll a little bit better in recent history. Signing Bauer would be opposite to that. I'd rather have a big money Betts deal than a big money Bauer deal. It's just not likely to happen.

[mvp 78]

A ranking of Bloom's 2020 scrapheaps:

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2020/10/5/21501628/boston-red-sox-roster-chaim-bloom-waiver-pick-ups-yairo-munoz-christian-arroyo-phillips-valdez?utm_campaign=mattrycollins&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

 

Munoz

Arroyo

Brice

Valdez

Springs

Mazza

Grullon

Arauz

Stock

Leyer

Triggs

Kickham

Puello

Hall

Covey

Godley

 

My issues with the list:

 

Brice is no way the 3rd best guy. Valdez should be #1. Mazza is better than Springs. After the top 6 guys or so, I don't think the order makes much of a difference. It's like picking from a hat.

 

Valdez

Munoz

Arroyo

Mazza

Springs

Arauz

everyone else

[notin]

A ranking of Bloom's 2020 scrapheaps:

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2020/10/5/21501628/boston-red-sox-roster-chaim-bloom-waiver-pick-ups-yairo-munoz-christian-arroyo-phillips-valdez?utm_campaign=mattrycollins&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

 

Munoz

Arroyo

Brice

Valdez

Springs

Mazza

Grullon

Arauz

Stock

Leyer

Triggs

Kickham

Puello

Hall

Covey

Godley

 

My issues with the list:

 

Brice is no way the 3rd best guy. Valdez should be #1. Mazza is better than Springs. After the top 6 guys or so, I don't think the order makes much of a difference. It's like picking from a hat.

 

Valdez

Munoz

Arroyo

Mazza

Springs

Arauz

everyone else

 

The biggest issue with Vadez to me is that his FIP shows his ERA might be a bit of an illusion, and he was worse with FIP than Mazza, Covey and Stock. He might not be the slam dunk he appears to be upfront...

[mvp 78]

The biggest issue with Vadez to me is that his FIP shows his ERA might be a bit of an illusion, and he was worse with FIP than Mazza, Covey and Stock. He might not be the slam dunk he appears to be upfront...

 

I don't think any of those guys are a slam dunk. I would just say that Valdez played the best out of them all. Too hard to really project these guys for more than what we've already seen. I didn't think much of Covey, but Stock has good "stuff." Mazza was a pleasant surprise for sure.

[mvp 78]

Half of Valdez' runs came in one series against Toronto. Maybe just a bad matchup for him?

[notin]

I don't think any of those guys are a slam dunk. I would just say that Valdez played the best out of them all. Too hard to really project these guys for more than what we've already seen. I didn't think much of Covey, but Stock has good "stuff." Mazza was a pleasant surprise for sure.

 

Therein lies the dilemma. Valdez had the best season, but it looks less sustainable.

 

Of course, as dilemmas go, this is pretty low risk. The Sox could DFA all of the AAAA guys and bring in an equal number of brand new ones and there might be no change in either direction from the old crowd to the new one...

[mvp 78]

Therein lies the dilemma. Valdez had the best season, but it looks less sustainable.

 

Of course, as dilemmas go, this is pretty low risk. The Sox could DFA all of the AAAA guys and bring in an equal number of brand new ones and there might be no change in either direction from the old crowd to the new one...

 

All of these dumpster dives are always low risk/low reward. I think we'll continue to see Bloom sign a bunch of guys like that, but augment it with some legitimate pickups.

 

It would have been really interesting to see what this team would have looked like if there wasn't the mandate to cut payroll.

[notin]

Half of Valdez' runs came in one series against Toronto. Maybe just a bad matchup for him?

 

He pitched 4 IP vs Toronto. Too small of a sample size to make any real conclusions...

[notin]

All of these dumpster dives are always low risk/low reward. I think we'll continue to see Bloom sign a bunch of guys like that, but augment it with some legitimate pickups.

 

It would have been really interesting to see what this team would have looked like if there wasn't the mandate to cut payroll.

 

Exactly.

 

I don't mind bringing in as many AAAA guys as they can fit in Pawtucket. But the whole idea is to still only need them for depth. But the AAAA crowd accounted for 183 IP out of the 524 IP (35%!!) for the team this year. A number that goes up if you consider Zack Godley (28.2 IP) and Colten Brewer (25 IP) to be AAAA pitchers as well, which you probably should.

 

Really, the fact that Ryan Weber was third on this team in IP and pitchers like Andrew Triggs and Matt Hall logged more IP than Brandon Workman also speaks volumes...

[mvp 78]

http://news.soxprospects.com/2020/10/red-sox-2020-fall-instructional-camp.html

 

Fall instructional league roster is set:

 

Pitchers (32)

RHP Jacinto Arredondo, NDFA '20

RHP Eduard Bazardo, IFA '14, A+/AA

RHP Brock Bell, 7th rd. '19, Rk/SS-A

RHP Brayan Bello, IFA '17, A

RHP Bradley Blalock, 32nd rd. '19, Rk

LHP Brendan Cellucci, 12th rd. '19, SS-A

RHP Kutter Crawford, 16th rd. '17, A+/AA/injured

RHP Nathanael Cruz, IFA - '19

RHP Osvaldo De La Rosa, IFA '18, SS-A

RHP Jordan DiValerio, NDFA '20

LHP Shane Drohan, 5th rd. '20

RHP Juan Daniel Encarnacion, IFA '18, DSL

RHP Durbin Feltman, 3rd rd. '18, AA

RHP Wilkelman Gonzalez, IFA '18, DSL

LHP Jay Groome, 1st rd. '16, Rk/SS-A (rehab)

RHP Gabriel Jackson, IFA '18, DSL

RHP Chih-Jung Liu, IFA '19

RHP Blake Loubier, 13th rd. '19, Rk

RHP Bryan Mata, IFA '16, A+/AA

LHP Chris Murphy. 6th rd. '19, SS-A

RHP Yusniel Padron-Artiles, 22nd rd. '18, A/SS-A

RHP AJ Politi, 15th rd. '18, A+

RHP Aldo Ramirez, IFA '18, SS-A

LHP Jorge Rodriguez, IFA '17, Rk/SS-A

RHP Chase Shugart, 12th rd. '18, A

 

RHP Dylan Spacke, 21st rd. '19, SS-A

RHP Jake Thompson, 4th rd. '17, A+/injured

RHP Brian Van Belle, NDFA '20

RHP Jacob Wallace, Traded from COL '20, SS-A

RHP Thaddeus Ward, 5th rd. '18, A/A+

LHP Jeremy Wu-Yelland, 4th rd. '20

RHP Ryan Zeferjahn, 3rd rd. 19, SS-A

 

Catchers (8)

Roldani Baldwin, IFA '13, Rk/SS-A (rehab)

Kole Cottam, 4th rd. '18, A/A+

Alex Erro, 17th rd. '19, SS-A

Jaxx Groshans, 5th rd. '19, SS-A

Alan Marrero, 8th rd. '16, A

Oscar Rangel, IFA '18, Rk

Stephen Scott, 10th rd. '19, SS-A

Connor Wong, Traded from LAD '20, A+/AA

 

Infielders (12)

Brainer Bonaci, IFA '18, DSL

Cameron Cannon, 2nd rd. '19, SS-A

Triston Casas, 1st rd. '18, A/A+

Pedro Castellanos, IFA '15, A+

Antoni Flores, IFA '17, SS-A

Brandon Howlett, 21st rd. '18, A

 

Blaze Jordan, 3rd rd. '20

Matthew Lugo, 2nd rd. '19, Rk/SS-A

Nick Northcut, 11th rd. '18, SS-A

Hudson Potts, Traded from SD '20, AA

Ceddanne Rafaela, IFA '17, Rk/SS-A

Nick Yorke, 1st rd. '20

 

Outfielders (10)

Darel Belen, IFA '19, DSL

Juan Chacon, IFA '19

Wil Dalton, 8th rd. '19, SS-A

Nick Decker, 2nd rd. '18, SS-A

Tyler Esplin, 7th rd. '17, A/A+

Bryan Gonzalez, IFA '18, DSL

Gilberto Jimenez, IFA '17, SS-A

Eduardo Lopez, IFA '18, DSL

Jeisson Rosario, Traded from SD '20, A+

Eduardo Vaughan, IFA '18, DSL

 

Seabold will be playing golf.

[mvp 78]

Exactly.

 

I don't mind bringing in as many AAAA guys as they can fit in Pawtucket. But the whole idea is to still only need them for depth. But the AAAA crowd accounted for 183 IP out of the 524 IP (35%!!) for the team this year. A number that goes up if you consider Zack Godley (28.2 IP) and Colten Brewer (25 IP) to be AAAA pitchers as well, which you probably should.

 

Really, the fact that Ryan Weber was third on this team in IP and pitchers like Andrew Triggs and Matt Hall logged more IP than Brandon Workman also speaks volumes...

 

Well, Workman did get traded early in the season and only pitched 6.2 innings. Triggs got 6 innings in his first two appearances because they wanted to torture us with him starting at one point.

[notin]

Well, Workman did get traded early in the season and only pitched 6.2 innings. Triggs got 6 innings in his first two appearances because they wanted to torture us with him starting at one point.

 

The whole season was "early in the season".

 

Still it's more a point about what percentage of the Sox IP this year were handled by AAAA-type pitching. If you count Godley and Brewer as AAAA pitchers, which they should be, over 45% of the IP for the Sox this year were handled by pitchers who were, at best, borderline MLB talent. (And that is not counting the 43 IP from Ryan Weber.)

 

Godley certainly has had a couple good seasons. But those are in the rear view mirror and he was cut by Detroit prior to signing with Boston...