2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Speaking of free agents, here's one who never was... MLB.com just ranked the top 50 players of 2020's (pre)postseason, and Number One is -- Mookie Betts!

 

Ahead of Bieber, Bauer, Cole, Darvish and Kershaw? And imagine, all the posters here who insisted all summer that Mookie couldn't pitch...

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

Kennedy says MLB teams lost over $100M per club this year. ‘We know we’re going to withstand operating losses. We’re prepared for that.’ Says the Sox expect to invest in team in a fashion similar to what they’ve done over last 20 years.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

@alexspeier

Kennedy says MLB teams lost over $100M per club this year. ‘We know we’re going to withstand operating losses. We’re prepared for that.’ Says the Sox expect to invest in team in a fashion similar to what they’ve done over last 20 years.

 

So there's a 40 percent chance it's either another World Series champion or a last place team.

[harmony]

With payroll flexibility, the Red Sox could target an expensive starter with only one year left on a contract with a team that is not expected to contend in 2021. Potential targets:

 

SP Alex Cobb ® BAL 2021 salary $15 million, Baseball Trade Values value of a negative $11.2 million

SP Danny Duffy (L) KC 2021 salary $15.5 million, Baseball Trade Values value of a negative $9.7 miillion

SP Jordan Lyles ® TEX 2021 salary $8 million, Baseball Trade Values value of a negative $8 million

 

If the Red Sox trade only a player or players of neutral net trade value, the trade partner could offset the negative trade value with a prospect or prospects to replenish the Sox farm system.

 

Or not.

Edited September 30, 2020 by harmony

[moonslav59]

With payroll flexibility, the Red Sox could target an expensive starter with only one year left on a contract with a team that is not expected to contend in 2021. Potential targets:

 

SP Alex Cobb ® BAL 2021 salary $15 million, Baseball Trade Values value of a negative $11.2 million

SP Danny Duffy (L) KC 2021 salary $15.5 million, Baseball Trade Values value of a negative $9.7 miillion

SP Jordan Lyles ® TEX 2021 salary $8 million, Baseball Trade Values value of a negative $8 million

 

If the Red Sox trade only a player or players of neutral net trade value, the trade partner could offset the negative trade value with a prospect or prospects to replenish the Sox farm system.

 

Or not.

 

You read my mind. I was thinking of compiling a list of these type players, soon.

 

Remember least year, some of us wanted to get Wil Myers as the "offset" to Price or Eovaldi, and look what Myers did this short season!

 

.959 OPS

15 HRs & 31 XBHs in under 200 ABs

 

[harmony]

With payroll flexibility, the Red Sox could target an expensive starter with only one year left on a contract with a team that is not expected to contend in 2021. Potential targets:

 

SP Alex Cobb ® BAL 2021 salary $15 million, Baseball Trade Values value of a negative $11.2 million

SP Danny Duffy (L) KC 2021 salary $15.5 million, Baseball Trade Values value of a negative $9.7 miillion

SP Jordan Lyles ® TEX 2021 salary $8 million, Baseball Trade Values value of a negative $8 million

 

If the Red Sox trade only a player or players of neutral net trade value, the trade partner could offset the negative trade value with a prospect or prospects to replenish the Sox farm system.

 

Or not.

Or in a trade for Alex Cobb the Red Sox could seek an immediate re-enforcement in the bullpen with 30-year-old Baltimore reliever Shawn Armstrong, who enters arbitration for the first time this offseason after posting an ERA of 1.80 in 15 innings this year with 14 strikeouts against only three walks. Baseball Trade Values values three years of Armstrong at only $400,000.

[notin]

Jameson Taillon feels like a decent Bloom-style target. Former top prospect who simply has not panned out, much like Tyler Glasnow.

 

Per BTV, a deal of Vazquez and Ward is acceptable, assuming Pitt is interested in those players...

[harmony]

Jameson Taillon feels like a decent Bloom-style target. Former top prospect who simply has not panned out, much like Tyler Glasnow.

 

Per BTV, a deal of Vazquez and Ward is acceptable, assuming Pitt is interested in those players...

Righthanded Pittsburgh starters Jameson Taillon, Joe Musgrove and Trevor Williams each have two years of team control on a Pirate club that is unlikely to compete in 2021.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=20&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=27&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate=

 

Ben Cherington could dangle all in trade talks in hopes of building for the future.

[notin]

Righthanded Pittsburgh starters Jameson Taillon, Joe Musgrove and Trevor Williams each have two years of team control on a Pirate club that is unlikely to compete in 2021.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=20&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=27&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate=

 

Ben Cherington could dangle all in trade talks in hopes of building for the future.

 

Could and very liekly will.

 

Of course, that doesn't mean they come cheap. Or, to be honest, that he has any interest in Vazquez despite the team having a black hole at catcher ever since Francisco Cervelli stopped playing the position...

[moonslav59]

Here are some big contract we could possibly take on in trade as a way to acquire another player or prospect or to offset some salary we may be trying to dump:

Player Owed (Lux Tax) Team

BAL

SP Alex Cobb $15M/1 (14.25M/yr)

TOR

SP Hyun-Jin Ryu $60M/3 (20/yr)

CF Randal Grichuk $31M/3 (10.4/yr)

TBR

CF Kiermaier $23.8M/2 (8.9/yr)

C M Zunio $7M/1 (6.0/yr)

LAA

1B Albert Pujols $30M/1 (24/yr)

OF Justin Upton $52M/2 (21.2/yr)

SEA

SP Yusei Kikuchi $31M/2 (14/yr)

TEX

2B Rougned Odor $24.7M/2 (8.25)

NYM

2B Robinson Cano $72M/3 (24/yr)

RP Jeury’s Familia $11.7M/1 (10/yr)

ATL

RP Will Smith $27M/2 (13.3)

CF Ender Inciarte $9.7M/1 (6.1)

PHI

LF Andrew McCutchen $23M/1 (16.7/yr)

Cubs

RP Yu Darvish $59M/3 (21/yr)

RF Jason Heyward $65M/3 (23/yr)

RP Craig Kimbrel $16M/1 (14.3/yr)

CIN

1B Joey Votto $75M/3 (22.5/yr)

RF N. Castellanos $48M/3 (16/yr)

2B M Moustakas $52M/3 (16/yr)

SP Raisel Iglesias $9.1M/1 (8/yr)

SP Sonny Gray $21.8M/2 (10.9)

MIL

CF Lorenzo Cain $35M/2 (16/yr)

RF Avisail Garcia $12.8M/1 (10/yr)

PIT

Gregory Polanco $11.6M/1 (7/yr)

AZ

SP M Bumgarner $79M/4 (17/yr)

LF David Peralta $15M/2 (7.3/yr)

RF Kole Calhoun $10M/1 (8/yr)

COL

CF/1B Ian Desmond $10M/1 (14/yr)

SDP

RF Wil Myers $46M/2 (13.8/yr)

1B Eric Hosmer $68M/4 (18/yr)

SFG

SP Johnny Cueto $26M/1 (21.7)

1B Brandon Belt $17.2M/1 (14.5)

3B Evan Longoria $43M/2 (11.2)

LAD

CF AJ POllock $31.5M/2 (12.0)

RP Joe Kelly $8.8M/1 (8.3)

[jacksonianmarch]

Why the hell would the pirates deal Taillon? He broke out in 2018 and had TJS in 2019. Not surprising that he missed 2020. He will be fully healthy in 2021

[harmony]

Why the hell would the pirates deal Taillon? He broke out in 2018 and had TJS in 2019. Not surprising that he missed 2020. He will be fully healthy in 2021

Will the Pittsburgh Pirates be competitive during the remaining two years of team control over Jameson Taillon?

[moonslav59]

Will the Pittsburgh Pirates be competitive during the remaining two years of team control over Jameson Taillon?

 

Exactly, and is he drawing any fans?

[harmony]

Here are some big contract we could possibly take on in trade as a way to acquire another player or prospect or to offset some salary we may be trying to dump:

Player Owed (Lux Tax) Team

SEA

SP Yusei Kikuchi $31M/2 (14/yr)

It's curious that Baseball Trade Values lists Seattle lefthander Yusei Kikuchi with a surplus value of $1.2 million with two years and $30 million left on his contract but lists Seattle third baseman Kyle Seager with a negative value $13.5 million with two years* and $33 million remaining on his contract:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/478/

 

Since the start of the 2019 season Kikuchi has posted 1.4 fWAR, valued at $10.8 million, in 41 starts covering 208.2 innings. Over the same period Seager has posted 4.5 fWAR, valued at $35.9 million, in 166 games:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/yusei-kikuchi/20633/stats?position=P

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-seager/9785/stats?position=3B

 

* the 2022 club option of $15 million to $20 million becomes a player option if Seager is traded. Most speculate, perhaps erroneously, that Seager would exercise the player option. https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-west/seattle-mariners/

Edited October 1, 2020 by harmony

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's curious that Baseball Trade Values lists Seattle lefthander Yusei Kikuchi with a surplus value of $1.2 million with two years and $30 million left on his contract but lists Seattle third baseman Kyle Seager with a negative value $13.5 million with two years* and $33 million remaining on his contract:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/478/

 

Since the start of the 2019 season Kikuchi has posted 1.4 fWAR, valued at $10.8 million, in 41 starts covering 208.2 innings. Over the same period Seager has posted 4.5 fWAR, valued at $35.9 million, in 166 games:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/yusei-kikuchi/20633/stats?position=P

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-seager/9785/stats?position=3B

 

* the 2022 club option of $15 million to $20 million becomes a player option if Seager is traded. Most speculate, perhaps erroneously, that Seager would exercise the player option. https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-west/seattle-mariners/

 

Seager's value may be lower because he sang "Beautiful Loser" (even if it's immortalized on "Live Bullet", one of the rock'n'ist live LPs of the 1970s).

[Bellhorn04]

It's curious that Baseball Trade Values lists Seattle lefthander Yusei Kikuchi with a surplus value of $1.2 million with two years and $30 million left on his contract but lists Seattle third baseman Kyle Seager with a negative value $13.5 million with two years* and $33 million remaining on his contract:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/478/

 

Since the start of the 2019 season Kikuchi has posted 1.4 fWAR, valued at $10.8 million, in 41 starts covering 208.2 innings. Over the same period Seager has posted 4.5 fWAR, valued at $35.9 million, in 166 games:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/yusei-kikuchi/20633/stats?position=P

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-seager/9785/stats?position=3B

 

* the 2022 club option of $15 million to $20 million becomes a player option if Seager is traded. Most speculate, perhaps erroneously, that Seager would exercise the player option. https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-west/seattle-mariners/

 

Curious indeed. Maybe BTV, like the rest of us, has the occasional glitch in its calculations?

[mvp 78]

OTM had a post today about how the most likely "high profile" FA signing would be Ozuna because he'd command a shorter contract at cheaper dollars.

 

Overall, I think the Sox will simply attack the margins much harder than we like to dream about when thinking of free agent acquisitions — this is a slow build, after all, timed both to mesh with returning starting pitchers this season (Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodríguez) and younger players and minor leaguers/draft picks going forward (Tanner Houck, Bobby Dalbec, Tristan Casas, Jeter Downs, among others). My general rule of thumb in free agent watching is that if a player will define the Sox for five years or more, he’s probably the wrong guy. Bloom bought time with his thrifty 2020, and I expect him to use it.

[mvp 78]

https://www.overthemonster.com/2020/10/1/21496710/boston-red-sox-offseason-free-agency-preview

 

Forgot to add the link.

[notin]

OTM had a post today about how the most likely "high profile" FA signing would be Ozuna because he'd command a shorter contract at cheaper dollars.

 

Overall, I think the Sox will simply attack the margins much harder than we like to dream about when thinking of free agent acquisitions — this is a slow build, after all, timed both to mesh with returning starting pitchers this season (Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodríguez) and younger players and minor leaguers/draft picks going forward (Tanner Houck, Bobby Dalbec, Tristan Casas, Jeter Downs, among others). My general rule of thumb in free agent watching is that if a player will define the Sox for five years or more, he’s probably the wrong guy. Bloom bought time with his thrifty 2020, and I expect him to use it.

 

I guess I wonder what "shorter contract, cheaper dollars" means in that case. The last few seasons, Ozuna has been a step behind Springer at the plate and he seems like the most likely consolation prize for whoever makes a mega offer to Springer but is not his top choice. He might come cheaper, but that doesn't mean Ozuna will come cheap...

[mvp 78]

I guess I wonder what "shorter contract, cheaper dollars" means in that case. The last few seasons, Ozuna has been a step behind Springer at the plate and he seems like the most likely consolation prize for whoever makes a mega offer to Springer but is not his top choice. He might come cheaper, but that doesn't mean Ozuna will come cheap...

 

Yeah, really hard to say what the market will bear. If the Sox are aggressive, maybe they can score some good contracts this offseason if other teams are worried about finances.

[notin]

Curious indeed. Maybe BTV, like the rest of us, has the occasional glitch in its calculations?

 

They certainly used to. As the site owner frequents the comments sections, you can raise questions to him and he answers publicly. And if he thinks he made an error, he addresses them, too...

[notin]

Yeah, really hard to say what the market will bear. If the Sox are aggressive, maybe they can score some good contracts this offseason if other teams are worried about finances.

 

I've heard some talking heads say not many teams will be spending, and in fact many teams will be cutting costs that are not normally cost cutters. Their expectation was many options would be declined that normally wouldn't, and even the strong possibility of some surprise non-tenders.

 

I think he might have overstated his case, but it would not surprise me if there were fewer teams in the market for the bigger names. (Boston was the only team they agreed in consensus would be spending this off-season)...

[Elktonnick]

I've heard some talking heads say not many teams will be spending, and in fact many teams will be cutting costs that are not normally cost cutters. Their expectation was many options would be declined that normally wouldn't, and even the strong possibility of some surprise non-tenders.

 

I think he might have overstated his case, but it would not surprise me if there were fewer teams in the market for the bigger names. (Boston was the only team they agreed in consensus would be spending this off-season)...

 

If Sam Kennedy is accurate that teams averaged losses of $100M each, few teams can endure such losses. Furthermore there is little certainty that 2021 will be a normal year that would permit packed stadiums. Under these circumstances, one would expect most owners to approach 2021 very cautiously when it comes to authorizing spending on FA contracts. This of course allows the most aggressive owners with deep pockets tremendous opportunities if they are willing to accept the risk.

[mvp 78]

I've heard some talking heads say not many teams will be spending, and in fact many teams will be cutting costs that are not normally cost cutters. Their expectation was many options would be declined that normally wouldn't, and even the strong possibility of some surprise non-tenders.

 

I think he might have overstated his case, but it would not surprise me if there were fewer teams in the market for the bigger names. (Boston was the only team they agreed in consensus would be spending this off-season)...

 

It'd be the perfect season for the Sox to employ Henry's checkbook to its fullest extent. Sign guys whose contracts would be below market in 22. Grab guys that teams are trying to part with. Could give this a 2013 Sox feel with short term contracts.

 

SoxProspects podcast was saying that they wouldn't be surprised if Bloom nontendered 12 guys. The theory is that all of the AAAA relief arms that they have now are fungible enough to just dump and find slightly better options that will be nontendered elsewhere.

[mvp 78]

If Sam Kennedy is accurate that teams averaged losses of $100M each, few teams can endure such losses. Furthermore there is little certainty that 2021 will be a normal year that would permit packed stadiums. Under these circumstances, one would expect most owners to approach 2021 very cautiously when it comes to authorizing spending on FA contracts. This of course allows the most aggressive owners with deep pockets tremendous opportunities if they are willing to accept the risk.

 

He said they didn't average 100M in losses, just that they brought in 100M in less revenue. Contracts were prorated and teams still got tv money. That doesn't mean a whole bunch of teams LOST 100M this year.

[notin]

It'd be the perfect season for the Sox to employ Henry's checkbook to its fullest extent. Sign guys whose contracts would be below market in 22. Grab guys that teams are trying to part with. Could give this a 2013 Sox feel with short term contracts.

 

SoxProspects podcast was saying that they wouldn't be surprised if Bloom nontendered 12 guys. The theory is that all of the AAAA relief arms that they have now are fungible enough to just dump and find slightly better options that will be nontendered elsewhere.

 

Did they name names for the non-tenders? As far as I can tell, they don't even have that many questionable players up for arbitration. Soxprospects.com's own 40-man roster page only lists 12 players eligible, and five of them are Devers, Rodriguez, Barnes, Brasier and Pivetta, all of whom I would consider likely to be tendered, with Devers actually being definite.

 

I certainly could see Peraza, Godley, Triggs, Weber, Covey and Brice all being non-tendered. Plawecki is possible, too, I suppose...

[mvp 78]

Did they name names for the non-tenders? As far as I can tell, they don't even have that many questionable players up for arbitration. Soxprospects.com's own 40-man roster page only lists 12 players eligible, and five of them are Devers, Rodriguez, Barnes, Brasier and Pivetta, all of whom I would consider likely to be tendered, with Devers actually being definite.

 

I certainly could see Peraza, Godley, Triggs, Weber, Covey and Brice all being non-tendered. Plawecki is possible, too, I suppose...

 

Aybar, Hall, Kickham, Leyer, Springs, Tapia, Walden.

 

Out of those 13, I bet Weber has the best shot at sticking around. Plawecki is for sure staying.

[mvp 78]

Need to make room on the 40 for rule 5 guys like:

 

Eduard Bazardo

Kutter Crawford

Chad De La Guerra

Jay Groome

Bryan Mata

Hudson Potts

Roniel Raudes

Jeremy Rivera

Jeisson Rosario

Zach Schellinger

Alex Scherff

Connor Seabold

Connor Wong

 

Clearly, not all of these guys will put on the 40, but I bet the majority are.

[notin]

Aybar, Hall, Kickham, Leyer, Springs, Tapia, Walden.

 

Out of those 13, I bet Weber has the best shot at sticking around. Plawecki is for sure staying.

 

I can see non-tendering that whole crowd...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It'd be the perfect season for the Sox to employ Henry's checkbook to its fullest extent. Sign guys whose contracts would be below market in 22. Grab guys that teams are trying to part with. Could give this a 2013 Sox feel with short term contracts.

 

Agreed. Houston just re-upped Gurriel for one-year, 7 Mil. In a way, the Stros just established a reasonable pay scale benchmark for an above-average hitter. Sure, Yuli is 36, but a year ago he had 31 HRs, 104 RBI, .884 OPS. He slumped this summer, but his low K-rate shows he can still swing the bat.