2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[jacksonianmarch]

Weird that a Bloom team would be that bad on D, although 2020 was hard enough to really grapple with anyway. TB always seemed to have arms that threw 100 and defense behind their cannons. So of course, the Sox has pussballing pitchers (sans a few of course) and a group of guys who kicked the ball around

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm not sure trading Barnes, this winter, while his stock is low, makes sense. He may be a summer 2021 trade candidate.

 

I can see us looking to deal Vaz, Beni & Chavis and non tendering a lot of players (Brice, Covey, Godley, Springs, Triggs, Hall, Kickham, Stock and Lin).

 

I don't know if Barnes' stock will ever be higher, unless he signs a multi-year team-friendly deal somewhere; he still throws in the high-90s and can spin a curve in the strike zone. Does anyone believe he'll develop into a more reliable option in back-to-back days or in the final inning of a game? He's already 30...

[oldtimer]

Looking at it a different way which would be to identify the best team we could put on the field in 2021 without signing anyone who is not currently on the team and then suggesting which changes could/should be made to make marginal or significant improvements is an interesting exercise. My try at it will probably get criticism for some of the more controversial suggestions I am makkiing:

 

Starters:

E-Rod (maybe available in May)

Eovaldi (possible closer candidate)

Houck

Mata

Perez

Pivetta

Sale (maybe in June)alden

 

Relievers:

Barnes (closer)

Brasier

Brice

D-Hern

Mazza (long relief0

Valdez

Walden

 

Catchers:

Vazquez

Plawecki

 

Infielders

Devers

Bogaerts

Arroyo

Dalbec

 

 

Outfielders:

Verdugo

JBJ (resign as FA)

Duran

 

 

DH:

JDM

 

Other Utility:

Downs

Munoz

Chavis

 

My guess is that this team would have an 85 win potential. You could argue some are unproven rookies and that would be fair, but what would you rather do and why?

[moonslav59]

The Sox ranked 30th in UZR/150 and 26th in DRS at 3B. Maybe move Devers to 1B and Dalbec to 3B?

 

Devers showed signs of vast improvement on defense, last year. They may feel he deserves a longer look. He's still younger than Dalbec.

 

I'd be fine with shifting him to 1B and giving Dalbec a shot at 3B- maybe sign Turner to a 1-2 year deal.

 

Devers at DH should not be considered for a few years.

[moonslav59]

I don't know if Barnes' stock will ever be higher, unless he signs a multi-year team-friendly deal somewhere; he still throws in the high-90s and can spin a curve in the strike zone. Does anyone believe he'll develop into a more reliable option in back-to-back days or in the final inning of a game? He's already 30...

 

If he pitches well next year, his deadline value may be higher than it is now. "May."

 

I'm not against trading him, this winter, but as bad as he looked, this year and last, his numbers beat just about everyone else in the pen.

 

Barnes, DHern, Valdez and Taylor seem like the best in-system bets to be helpful, next year.

[moonslav59]

Looking at it a different way which would be to identify the best team we could put on the field in 2021 without signing anyone who is not currently on the team and then suggesting which changes could/should be made to make marginal or significant improvements is an interesting exercise. My try at it will probably get criticism for some of the more controversial suggestions I am making:

 

Starters:

E-Rod (maybe available in May)

Eovaldi (possible closer candidate)

Houck

Mata

Perez

Pivetta

Sale (maybe in June)alden

 

Relievers:

Barnes (closer)

Brasier

Brice

D-Hern

Mazza (long relief0

Valdez

Walden

 

Catchers:

Vazquez

Plawecki

 

Infielders

Devers

Bogaerts

Arroyo

Dalbec

 

 

Outfielders:

Verdugo

JBJ (resign as FA)

Duran

 

 

DH:

JDM

 

Other Utility:

Downs

Munoz

Chavis

 

My guess is that this team would have an 85 win potential. You could argue some are unproven rookies and that would be fair, but what would you rather do and why?

 

You forgot Beni.

 

Here's how I would put it:

 

26 Man Roster

Starters:

Eovaldi

Perez

Pivetta

Mazza> E-Rod (maybe available in May/June- Mazza to pen as long relief-Covey to AAA)

Houck>Sale (maybe in June/July- Houck to pen to limit IP-Walden to AAA)

(Mata/Seabold may join in late summer)

 

Relievers:

Barnes (closer)

DHern

Taylor

Brasier

Valdez

Covey

Walden

 

Catchers:

Vazquez

Plawecki

 

Infielders

Devers

Bogaerts

Arroyo

Dalbec

 

 

Outfielders:

Beni

JBJ (re-signed- although I doubt he is.) (Wilson/Puello?)

Verdugo

 

DH:

JDM

 

Other Utility:

Munoz (Downs may join in late summer)

Chavis (Ockimey is a long shot)

Puello (Duran may replace him by July/Aug)

Edited September 28, 2020 by moonslav59

[notin]

He didn’t forget Benintendi. He left him out in favor of Duran on purpose...

[oldtimer]

Moon

 

I didn't forget Beni, instead I suspect he will go in a trade

 

I agree with your assessment that Mazza may begin the season as a starter and wind up as a long reliever.

 

I didn't mention Seabold but hear he has the potential to make the team in 2021.

 

I don't know enough about Covey to have an opinion

 

JBJ is a question mark who the Sox can keep if they make a good offer. Still, you're right in thinking he is questionable at this point.

 

I thin Duran has a shot of making the team out of spring training and that might make Puello the odd man out.

 

Downs ability to fill in at multiple positions makes him an intriguing prospect. I know Arroyo has that ability as well.

Having established who we might believe if we stuck to players currently with the Sox, or who might be made an offer to stay, who do you then think will be replaced with FA acquisitions or through trades? The assumption is that whoever is pointed out would constitute a meaningful improvement in competitiveness.

 

A starter

A closer

One more relief pitcher

An Outfielder

[notin]

If Duran makes them team, it’s to start. If Puello makes the team, he’s on the bench. They shouldn’t impact each other’s status...

[harmony]

The Red Sox quandary is that upgrades are perilous through this year's lackluster free agent class but the Sox lack the personnel currency to upgrade significantly through trades.

 

But Chaim Bloom might be the executive to pull it off.

 

Or not.

[Kimmi]

Roenicke gone.

 

JBJ?

 

How will Bloom spend now that the tax cap has been reset?

 

I don't think we necessarily go over the tax limit this year.

[Kimmi]

I don't think they are going to sign any big name guys. I think they'll go for under the radar guys and will still probably stay under the tax cap. I don't think they go over the cap again until they are ready to compete for another title.

 

You're saying they won't be competitive next year? I agree with everything you said, otherwise.

 

I think they'll be competitive, I just don't think the timing is right to make a big splash.

[Kimmi]

They have seen that spending on multiple second tier names can have some success, like they did back in 2013...

 

Exactly.

[Kimmi]

Maybe the Padres don't pick up Moreland's option and Sox re-sign?

 

$3MM club option with $500K buyout: The 35-year-old raked with the Red Sox but saw his bat collapse upon a trade to the Padres, for whom he’s posted a dismal .203/.247/.362 slash in 73 plate appearances. It’s still a cheap price, and the Padres gave up some minor league talent to get Moreland, so perhaps he’s still in the 2021 plans.

 

I would welcome Moreland back with open arms at his option price.

[Noles_1335]

With the talent we have waiting in the wings at 1B and potentially 3B.... would it be completely idiotic to dangle Devers out to ATL for some of their young stud arms. In their top prospects they have one 3B who’s a few years away from making an impact. Should we strike while the iron is hot and move Dalbec over and give Casas a shot at 1B and really roll the dice and get major league talent back on the mound??

[harmony]

They have seen that spending on multiple second tier names can have some success, like they did back in 2013...

What the Red Sox did in 2013 was like someone spending two hours with the slot machines and coming away with $300.

 

That does not make play on the slot machines a good investment. The odds will always favor the house.

 

Likewise the odds favor the players, not the team, in free agency.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

With the talent we have waiting in the wings at 1B and potentially 3B.... would it be completely idiotic to dangle Devers out to ATL for some of their young stud arms. In their top prospects they have one 3B who’s a few years away from making an impact. Should we strike while the iron is hot and move Dalbec over and give Casas a shot at 1B and really roll the dice and get major league talent back on the mound??

 

It may be considered idiotic for the Braves to deal young starting pitchers for a guy who may become such a liability at third that he needs a position change. Then again, a team as loaded with talent as Atlanta just had to hire Pablo Sandoval for the hot corner while contending for a ring...

 

Boston should never give up a young, middle-of-the-order slugger for just prospects, though; the return would have to be proven MLB quality with superstar potential... equivalent to this:

 

Most Extra Base Hits in a Season, Age 22, 1871-2020

1. 96 Joe DiMaggio 1937

2. 90 Rafael Devers 2019

[Bellhorn04]

What the Red Sox did in 2013 was like someone spending two hours with the slot machines and coming away with $300.

 

That does not make play on the slot machines a good investment. The odds will always favor the house.

 

Likewise the odds favor the players, not the team, in free agency.

 

Are you suggesting teams should not invest in free agents at all?

[Noles_1335]

This may be true and he may be a unbelievable hitter at times, however. Will his D continue to regress, will his weight become a problem that he battles every off season. He won’t ever get any faster. What will his next contract demand? Is his slugging and mediocre D enough to pay this guy 30 mil a year or more with the demands he will be looking for?

[Bellhorn04]

This may be true and he may be a unbelievable hitter at times, however. Will his D continue to regress, will his weight become a problem that he battles every off season. He won’t ever get any faster. What will his next contract demand? Is his slugging and mediocre D enough to pay this guy 30 mil a year or more with the demands he will be looking for?

 

At this point in time, Raffy does not look like a $30 million player by any means. And they can afford to wait to offer him an extension.

[notin]

Are you suggesting teams should not invest in free agents at all?

 

I say that all the time...

[Bellhorn04]

I say that all the time...

 

And you were also the one who made the argument about the 2013 signings that started this.

 

No free agents might = no Red Sox titles.

[notin]

And you were also the one who made the argument about the 2013 signings that started this.

 

No free agents might = no Red Sox titles.

 

Typically I say it about those long term David Price-esque contracts that give you maybe one or two seasons of productivity and then become a contractual anchor that drags the team to the bottom of the ocean.

 

I have always said the years bother me more than the money. If the Sox paid Trevor Bauer $40 mill for one year, I'd be ok with that. But if they paid him $200 mill for 6 years, I'd be voicing my concern on this forum the day the deal was signed....

[Thunder]

I say that all the time...

 

You must have really loved baseball in the 1960s

[mvp 78]

You're saying they won't be competitive next year? I agree with everything you said, otherwise.

 

I think they'll be competitive, I just don't think the timing is right to make a big splash.

 

I'd say the are WC contenders at best. I don't think they are a below .500 team.

[mvp 78]

I would welcome Moreland back with open arms at his option price.

 

If he gets dropped, you can probably even get him for cheaper.

[mvp 78]

With the talent we have waiting in the wings at 1B and potentially 3B.... would it be completely idiotic to dangle Devers out to ATL for some of their young stud arms. In their top prospects they have one 3B who’s a few years away from making an impact. Should we strike while the iron is hot and move Dalbec over and give Casas a shot at 1B and really roll the dice and get major league talent back on the mound??

 

I guess it depends on the arms?

[notin]

You must have really loved baseball in the 1960s

 

 

No, I waited until birth to begin my fandom. As a fetus, I liked hockey more, but then I grew up...

[Thunder]

I really hope there are fans in the stands next year. I liked empty ballparks more than I thought, but it's not the same. But, if there are fans in the seats next year, I have a huge decision to make.

[moonslav59]

If we spend close to $60M, this winter, we should be a playoff contender at best and a .500 team at worst.