A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

I honestly think that the AL is down and a team like the Yanks, holes and all, is a far more likely team to be the best of the bunch than really any other. It’s as much a nod to the Yanks as it is an indictment of the entire league

 

I think the Jays and White Sox, and maybe even the Twins may add a few pieces and pass the Yanks, if they stand pat.

 

I never count out the Rays, either.

 

The Astros and A's need additions.

[moonslav59]

I honestly think that the AL is down and a team like the Yanks, holes and all, is a far more likely team to be the best of the bunch than really any other. It’s as much a nod to the Yanks as it is an indictment of the entire league

 

I can't blame you for being optimistic. You have a lot to be encouraged about, but until you replace DJ, Tanaka, Paxton & Happ and find a catcher, it's hard to know just who the Yanks will be.

 

Cole is solid, but Severino may not be back until July and may need time to return to form. Montgomery, Garcia, King and German all show serious skills or promise, but questions still remain. The pen is solid.

 

I'm certain the Yanks will not stand pat, and if they lose out on DJ, they will find someone else.

 

Let's see who replaces Tanaka.

 

Returning players from injuries are always hard to gauge.

 

[moonslav59]

Here are the BTV values assigned to players on these teams (at the ML level). Keep in mind, these values are based on the player value and contractual obligations...

 

This is not about who is better than who...

 

Yankees

88 Torres SS/2B

63 Judge OF

37 Garcia SP

37 Severino SP

36 Montgomery SP

26 Frazier OF

21 Voit 1B

16 German SP

16 Green RP

15 Urshela 3B

8.2 Higashioka C

7.9 Loaisiga SP

6.1 Tauchman OF

2.8 King SP

 

Blue Jays

105 Bichette SS

93 Guerrero 1B/DH

53 Biggio 2B

32 Jansen C

32 Hernandez OF

26 Gurriel OF/2B

6.5 Tellez 1B

6.1 Thornton SP

5.5 Kay SP

3.2 Romano RP

3.2 Stripling SP

2.9 Borucki RP

 

Red Sox

51 Verdugo OF

45 Devers 3B

22 Bogaerts SS

21 Vazquez C

17 Dalbec 1B/3B

8.9 Hernandez RP

7.6 Rodriguez SP

7.5 Chavis 1B/2B

5.3 Benintendi OF

3.6 Arroyo 2B

3.3 Pivetta SP

2.9 Brasier RP

2.1 Arauz 2B

 

[jacksonianmarch]

The best team is not based on their financial value, it’s based on their on field production. The BTV values are absolutely useless beyond a trade scenario and even then, I’m incredibly skeptical of them

[jacksonianmarch]

I can't blame you for being optimistic. You have a lot to be encouraged about, but until you replace DJ, Tanaka, Paxton & Happ and find a catcher, it's hard to know just who the Yanks will be.

 

Cole is solid, but Severino may not be back until July and may need time to return to form. Montgomery, Garcia, King and German all show serious skills or promise, but questions still remain. The pen is solid.

 

I'm certain the Yanks will not stand pat, and if they lose out on DJ, they will find someone else.

 

Let's see who replaces Tanaka.

 

Returning players from injuries are always hard to gauge.

 

 

Trust me, I want DJ and either Tanaka or a replacement for him. I think Higashioka has the defensive chops and enough pop to be a starting catcher and should supplant Gary due to his lack of defensive ability and disappearing offensive skills. That being said, we have replacements for every player lost and then some. Where’s the replacement for Brantley and Springer in HOU? Where’s the replacement for Verlander? The White Sox are a hot name, but they were free falling into the playoffs and made a rapid exit once in.

 

As it stands right now, the Yanks can do the following

 

C Sanchez/Higa

1B Voit/Ford

2B Urshela/Estrada/Wade (can also flip Torres here)

SS Torres/Estrada/Wade if Torres is moved to 2b

3B Urshela/Andujar if Urshela flips to 2b

LF Frazier/Tauchman

CF Hicks/Tauchman

RF Judge/Tauchman

DH Stanton

 

Any way you slice it, that’s a really good lineup with some redundancy at all positions. Should Sanchez recover his offensive value as he did from 18 to 19, then all the better

 

SP1 Cole

SP2 Montgomery

SP3 German

SP4 Garcia

SP5 Schmidt/King/Nelson/Loaisiga

 

In the wings, Severino by the ASB

 

No question top notch ace. German was awesome in 19 before his DV ridiculousness. Montgomery is a solid rotation piece. Garcia was really good last year. The 5 slot would be a rotating issue until Severino comes back unless one of them finds their ceiling. It’s a rotation with promise and 3 proven big league talents, one of which is awesome. It could use another veteran for sure.

 

The pen has only gotten better. Loaisiga and Cessa stepped up last year in pen roles. Add them to Green, Britton, Chapman and you’ve got a strong pen. That’s before you see what Ottavino can give you. If he can bounce back from a rough 2020, then all the better.

 

Ultimately, the team, as is, is definitely the favorite for the ALE, likely the AL favorite, but certainly behind SD and LA. With the prospect of DJ being on the radar and another pitcher, they could catch up. We will see

[notin]

So you think the Yankees are ready for the season despite having #2 starter whose thrown 75 IP in the last 3 seasons combined?

[Bellhorn04]

Sanchez is toast. Judge and Stanton can't stay on the field.

 

If they lose LeMahieu and don't do much about the pitching, I think there's a good chance they suck.

[Bellhorn04]

German was awesome in 19 before his DV ridiculousness.

 

German was hardly awesome in 2019. He was a little above average.

[Kimmi]

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team

 

Click on the top of WAR column.

 

Seattle fans are discouraged with the stunningly low projections for the young Mariners.

 

Seattle fans can be thankful that there are 6 teams ranked below them. The Rockies - Yikes!

[Kimmi]

Lol, the Yanks right now are the odds on favorite for the ALE as currently constructed. Plus, the Yanks are expected to add to their team, where TB isn’t. TB has seen Morton and Snell move on with very little 2021 big league talent back. I don’t think you’re seeing what the Yanks are expecting to get back as enough to take the AL. Severino was a top 10 CY finisher before a lat strain then TJS sidelined him. He’s young and was chucking beebees before TJS. German won 18 games as well, and while rusty, doesn’t have a health concern. There’s talent in the rotation, lots of up and coming talent for the rotation in the high minors and a continued high level of talent in the pen. The offense needs DJ, but will replace Gardner easily with Frazier. I want the Yanks to add a pitcher and DJ, mostly because I was them to not get smoked if they get to the WS.

 

Cleveland is expected to deal Lindor and are in the throes of purging payroll. The Twins are good, but are we ever gonna put them ahead of the Yanks when they’re not in the same division? The Astros are in payroll hell and will be without Verlander for 2021 and now are looking to be moving on from Brantley and Springer. I think the Yanks ranking is less “bias” and more the fact that the AL is down right now.

 

The Yankees will likely end up being the favorites for the division when all is said and done. They will make the playoffs. But, didn't we hear this exact same narrative last year? One thing that is an equalizer for all other AL teams is that you guys have Boone. LOL

 

Also, do NOT count the Red Sox out.

[harmony]

Seattle fans can be thankful that there are 6 teams ranked below them. The Rockies - Yikes!

Awaiting the returns of Mitch Haniger and Tom Murphy, the Mariners have already made modest additions to a team that finished three games ahead of the Red Sox with MLB’s youngest roster. Seattle has the payroll flexibility and prospect assets to further improve the club.

 

Or not.

Edited January 3, 2021 by harmony

[jacksonianmarch]

The Yankees will likely end up being the favorites for the division when all is said and done. They will make the playoffs. But, didn't we hear this exact same narrative last year? One thing that is an equalizer for all other AL teams is that you guys have Boone. LOL

 

Also, do NOT count the Red Sox out.

 

Agreed on Boone, although it sounds like the decision was Cashman’s. Or maybe Cash is taking the heat off Boone, either way, stupid.

 

I usually don’t count out the Sox. I did before 2020 because all their pitching went down with literally no upper level, high end potential depth. Houck ended up making it up and looking solid, but the rest of the guys were castoffs. You knew they were gonna suck. For this year, the fact that Brad Hand was available for just money and the Sox didn’t jump also shows to me that they’re not going for a win. If the Sox are going for it, I don’t count them out. If they’re roster building still and not going for it, I will

[notin]

SP1 Cole

SP2 Montgomery

SP3 German

SP4 Garcia

SP5 Schmidt/King/Nelson/Loaisiga

 

In the wings, Severino by the ASB

 

No question top notch ace. German was awesome in 19 before his DV ridiculousness. Montgomery is a solid rotation piece. Garcia was really good last year. The 5 slot would be a rotating issue until Severino comes back unless one of them finds their ceiling. It’s a rotation with promise and 3 proven big league talents, one of which is awesome. It could use another veteran for sure.

 

The pen has only gotten better. Loaisiga and Cessa stepped up last year in pen roles. Add them to Green, Britton, Chapman and you’ve got a strong pen. That’s before you see what Ottavino can give you. If he can bounce back from a rough 2020, then all the better.

 

Ultimately, the team, as is, is definitely the favorite for the ALE, likely the AL favorite, but certainly behind SD and LA. With the prospect of DJ being on the radar and another pitcher, they could catch up. We will see

 

 

You do realize that after Gerrit Cole, the Yankee rotation is not much better than Boston's.

 

Montgomery at #2 "was a solid piece once." So "used to be good" is a justification here? First of all, he was an OK pitcher, and that was over 3 years (and 75 IP) ago. He is essentially a cheaper version of Nathan Eovaldi, but somehow less durable. And worse.

 

German is OK as a pitcher, but let's not go overboard. He's never thrown more than 143 IP in a season or been worth more than 2.0 fWAR. In both of these respects, he is less than Nick Pivetta, but, German is older.

 

Deivi Garcia had a nice 4 starts. So did Tanner Houck. Even if you like Garcia's pedigree more, and you probably should over the never-ranked Houck, the future is still equally unknown for both.

 

Oh, and that leaves ERod vs Clarke Schmidt or whoever. Advantage: Boston. Do not even try to counter that one. Ditto the same when each team gets back their mid-season pitchers. (Severino vs. Sale.)

 

Now, the Sox are unlikely to add a pitcher as good as Cole this season (unless you count Sale), but Gerrit is the only thing that separates the Yankee rotation from the rotation of a team you recently said "as presently constituted [was] a last place team."

[moonslav59]

 

SP1 Cole

SP2 Montgomery

SP3 German

SP4 Garcia

SP5 Schmidt/King/Nelson/Loaisiga

 

In the wings, Severino by the ASB

 

No question top notch ace. German was awesome in 19 before his DV ridiculousness. Montgomery is a solid rotation piece. Garcia was really good last year. The 5 slot would be a rotating issue until Severino comes back unless one of them finds their ceiling. It’s a rotation with promise and 3 proven big league talents, one of which is awesome. It could use another veteran for sure.

 

A lot of these pitchers do NOT have extended periods of Major League success. There are questions on many of them. You are a Yankee fan, so you are optimistic.

 

You are more optimistic on Severino than Sale.

 

Pitchers like ERod and Eovaldi have shown longer periods of success than many on the list of Yankee starters, and of course they have large question marks next to their name, but you seem much less optimistic about other team's starters.

 

Look, I'm not overly optimistic about our top 3 starters, either, and I'd rather have your top 6 SP'ers than ours, but we both know a lot can go wrong, and both teams can use a big addition or two to the rotation mix. Until we know who those additions are, it's okay to give the edge to the Yanks due to their depth, but other teams will be making additions, too- maybe better ones.

 

What if the Jays sign Bauer & DJ, and the Yanks add Porcello and a lower ranked 2B/SS?

[moonslav59]

The best team is not based on their financial value, it’s based on their on field production. The BTV values are absolutely useless beyond a trade scenario and even then, I’m incredibly skeptical of them

 

I clearly stated the BTV values were not meant to show who is better than others.

[moonslav59]

So you think the Yankees are ready for the season despite having #2 starter whose thrown 75 IP in the last 3 seasons combined?

 

Even Eovaldi has way more than that, yet jacko has bashed Eovaldi often.

[moonslav59]

You do realize that after Gerrit Cole, the Yankee rotation is not much better than Boston's.

 

Montgomery at #2 "was a solid piece once." So "used to be good" is a justification here? First of all, he was an OK pitcher, and that was over 3 years (and 75 IP) ago. He is essentially a cheaper version of Nathan Eovaldi, but somehow less durable. And worse.

 

German is OK as a pitcher, but let's not go overboard. He's never thrown more than 143 IP in a season or been worth more than 2.0 fWAR. In both of these respects, he is less than Nick Pivetta, but, German is older.

 

Deivi Garcia had a nice 4 starts. So did Tanner Houck. Even if you like Garcia's pedigree more, and you probably should over the never-ranked Houck, the future is still equally unknown for both.

 

Oh, and that leaves ERod vs Clarke Schmidt or whoever. Advantage: Boston. Do not even try to counter that one. Ditto the same when each team gets back their mid-season pitchers. (Severino vs. Sale.)

 

Now, the Sox are unlikely to add a pitcher as good as Cole this season (unless you count Sale), but Gerrit is the only thing that separates the Yankee rotation from the rotation of a team you recently said "as presently constituted [was] a last place team."

 

Well said, and if we add Tanaka or Ororizzi, and the Yanks add squat, we could just be a healthy Sale vs an unhealthy Severino away from having an equal rotation with the Yanks.

 

Lots of ifs for both teams, for sure.

[harmony]

A lot of these pitchers do NOT have extended periods of Major League success. There are questions on many of them. You are a Yankee fan, so you are optimistic.

 

Pitchers like ERod and Eovaldi have shown longer periods of success than many on the list of Yankee starters, and of course they have large question marks next to their name, but you seem much less optimistic about other team's starters.

Eduardo Rodriguez and Luis Severino provide interesting comps:

 

ER DOB 4/7/93, 5 MLB seasons, 127 G, 122 GS, 699.0 IP, 4.03 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 2.86 K/BB, 113 ERA+, 13.6 bWAR, 10.7 fWAR

LS DOB 2/20/94. 5 MLB seasons, 99 G, 88 GS, 530.0 IP, 3.46 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 3.93 K/BB, 125 ERA+, 11.7 bWAR, 12.8 fWAR

 

Rodriguez finished sixth in the Cy Young voting in 2019 while Severino finished third in 2017 and ninth in 2018. Rodriguez has one year of team control and Severino two years of team control.

 

Nathan Eovaldi's "longer period of success" includes an ERA+ of 96 in 966 innings over nine seasons.

Edited January 3, 2021 by harmony

[moonslav59]

 

Nathan Eovaldi's "longer period of success" includes an ERA+ of 96 in 966 innings over nine seasons.

 

I said "extended periods of Major League success"- meaning a longer stretch or stretches of success and NOT career stats, and not necessarily better numbers vs smaller or tiny sample sizes by some of the Yankees listed.

 

Since jacko was quoting specific shorter periods of success for Yankee starters, I countered with my point.

 

ERod and Eovaldi both have a longer stretch or stretches of success than many on jacko's list of Yankee hopefuls.

 

I didn't bother bringing up Houck's tiny sample size of success vs Garcia's equally tiny sample size.

Edited January 3, 2021 by moonslav59

[harmony]

For those who wonder why the old school fans question the value of things like fWAR ; In 2020 , Rick Porcello had a record of 1 - 7 , with an ERA of 5.64 . The Mets have little to no interest in bringing him back.

Rick Porcello, who is only 14 months older than Nathan Eovaldi, has a career ERA+ of 98 in 2,096 career innings while Eovaldi had a career ERA+ of 96 in 966 innings.

 

Steamer and ZiPS project Porcello with 1.9 WAR in 177 innings and 1.5 WAR in 139 innings while projecting Eovaldi with 2.8 WAR in 171 innings and 0.9 WAR in 74 innings.

[Kimmi]

Awaiting the returns of Mitch Haniger and Tom Murphy, the Mariners have already made modest additions to a team that finished three games ahead of the Red Sox with MLB’s youngest roster. Seattle has the payroll flexibility and prospect assets to further improve the club.

 

Or not.

 

I have nothing against the Mariners. I wouldn't mind seeing them get back into the playoffs. I also would not be opposed to them winning the World Series if it's not the Red Sox.

[Kimmi]

Agreed on Boone, although it sounds like the decision was Cashman’s. Or maybe Cash is taking the heat off Boone, either way, stupid.

 

I usually don’t count out the Sox. I did before 2020 because all their pitching went down with literally no upper level, high end potential depth. Houck ended up making it up and looking solid, but the rest of the guys were castoffs. You knew they were gonna suck. For this year, the fact that Brad Hand was available for just money and the Sox didn’t jump also shows to me that they’re not going for a win. If the Sox are going for it, I don’t count them out. If they’re roster building still and not going for it, I will

 

There's still a long way to go in the off season. I have confidence in Bloom to get the team where it needs to be to compete in 2021.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR to use different stats going forward...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/pitching-stats-mlbtr.html

[harmony]

MLBTR to use different stats going forward...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/pitching-stats-mlbtr.html

The 2020 book A Fan's Guide to Baseball Analytics: Why WAR, WHIP, wOBA, and Other Advanced Sabermetrics Are Essential to Understanding Modern Baseball by MLB.com writer Anthony Castrovince takes a light approach in explaining the modern stats:

 

https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/A-Fans-Guide-to-Baseball-Analytics/Anthony-Castrovince/9781683583448

 

... without the condescension in Keith Law's 2017 book Smart Baseball: The Story Behind the Old Stats That Are Ruining the Game, the New Ones That Are Running It, and the Right Way to Think About Baseball.:

 

https://www.harpercollins.com/products/smart-baseball-keith-law?variant=32206562459682

[notin]

Rick Porcello, who is only 14 months older than Nathan Eovaldi, has a career ERA+ of 98 in 2,096 career innings while Eovaldi had a career ERA+ of 96 in 966 innings.

 

Steamer and ZiPS project Porcello with 1.9 WAR in 177 innings and 1.5 WAR in 139 innings while projecting Eovaldi with 2.8 WAR in 171 innings and 0.9 WAR in 74 innings.

 

The fact that Steamer is projecting 171 IP for Eovaldi shows how questionable that system is...

[notin]

Well said, and if we add Tanaka or Ororizzi, and the Yanks add squat, we could just be a healthy Sale vs an unhealthy Severino away from having an equal rotation with the Yanks.

 

Lots of ifs for both teams, for sure.

 

It was really a tad unfair of me to leave ERod for their open #5 slot when as of today, he lines up against Cole. But the bottom line is that the Red Sox are one decent SP and a couple bullpen arms - all of which the Sox can afford - from having a staff as good as the Yankees.

[mvp 78]

MLBTR to use different stats going forward...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/pitching-stats-mlbtr.html

 

I'm more leery on BABIP than WAR. BABIP can fluctuate like crazy from year to year. To me, it's the biggest indicator of luck and must directly compare it to a player's career norms.

[notin]

Sugano expected to sign tomorrow.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/latest-on-tomoyuki-sugano.html

 

 

Most fans expect him to sign with the Mets per MLBTR polling. Notin expects him to sign with San Francisco...

[moonslav59]

The rankings clearly assume future additions by the Yanks. As they stand, right now, they should not be top 5.

 

They clearly are not assuming the Sox make significant additions.

 

Be consistent: either rank the teams as they are right now, or not.

 

I'm more leery on BABIP than WAR. BABIP can fluctuate like crazy from year to year. To me, it's the biggest indicator of luck and must directly compare it to a player's career norms.

 

Agreed. BAbip is a useful stat in determining how much luck- good or bad- is involved.

[mvp 78]

Sugano expected to sign tomorrow.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/latest-on-tomoyuki-sugano.html

 

 

Most fans expect him to sign with the Mets per MLBTR polling. Notin expects him to sign with San Francisco...

 

He's going to NYM, but I'll be happy if he signs in BOS.