A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

For those who wonder why the old school fans question the value of things like fWAR ; In 2020 , Rick Porcello had a record of 1 - 7 , with an ERA of 5.64 . The Mets have little to no interest in bringing him back.

 

I guess some think we should have signed him to 5 or more years.

[notin]

For those who wonder why the old school fans question the value of things like fWAR ; In 2020 , Rick Porcello had a record of 1 - 7 , with an ERA of 5.64 . The Mets have little to no interest in bringing him back.

 

Old School thinking also gave Bartolo Colon the Cy Young over Johan Santana in 2005 because Colon had more wins but pitched worse based on every other stat. Basically he got the award for being on a better team...

[moonslav59]

Thanks for the chart, Moon. Maybe the big extensions in 18/19 that kept Sale and Bogaerts from becoming free agents should be included, since the earlier Ortiz extensions were listed. I guess then other biggies like Pedroia's, AGon, and Pedro's first, too.

 

Thanks, I went back and added a few of the big extensions in blue.

 

Check it out.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Old School thinking also gave Bartolo Colon the Cy Young over Johan Santana in 2005 because Colon had more wins but pitched worse based on every other stat. Basically he got the award for being on a better team...

 

I'm not saying Bartolo deserved it, but since it's now (finally) January of next year -- warning: the following content may only be suitable for fans who value quantitative and qualitative data... some better teams wouldn't be better without better pitchers.

[Bellhorn04]

I guess some think we should have signed him to 5 or more years.

 

Post-Prime Porcello is projected (say that five times fast) to have an fWAR of 1.9 in 177 innings in 2021. That's a dollar value of about $15 mill.

 

I would gladly take him for $8-9 million.

[dgalehouse]

Old School thinking also gave Bartolo Colon the Cy Young over Johan Santana in 2005 because Colon had more wins but pitched worse based on every other stat. Basically he got the award for being on a better team...

Old school thinking would have given more weight to ERA . ERA should always be looked at in conjunction with wins/ losses . Without looking it up , I would guess that Santana had a considerably lower ERA. I guess the voters were not all that old school.

[notin]

Old school thinking would have given more weight to ERA . ERA should always be looked at in conjunction with wins/ losses . Without looking it up , I would guess that Santana had a considerably lower ERA. I guess the voters were not all that old school.

 

Even ERA depends on the defensive abilities of the players behind you. They make more plays, you get a lower ERA. Does that mean you were a better pitcher?

 

ERA can also depend on the bullpen. Have a guy capable of stranding his inherited runners come in after you, you get a lower ERA. Does having a better bullpen make a pitcher better than someone who does not have one?

[Bellhorn04]

Even ERA depends on the defensive abilities of the players behind you. They make more plays, you get a lower ERA. Does that mean you were a better pitcher?

 

ERA can also depend on the bullpen. Have a guy capable of stranding his inherited runners come in after you, you get a lower ERA. Does having a better bullpen make a pitcher better than someone who does not have one?

 

You've gone into areas that don't exist in Old School.

 

There's another one too: ERA can depend on the manager's philosophy on when to hook.

[harmony]

For those who wonder why the old school fans question the value of things like fWAR ; In 2020 , Rick Porcello had a record of 1 - 7 , with an ERA of 5.64 . The Mets have little to no interest in bringing him back.

Citing the win/loss record and ERA is certainly old school.

 

FanGraphs and MLB Trade Rumors ranked Rick Porcello No. 43 and No. 46 among free agents this offseason:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-top-50-free-agents/

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2021.html

 

... ahead of Jake Arrieta, Anthony DeSclafani, Mike Fiers, Jon Lester, Homer Bailey, Brett Anderson, Aníbal Sánchez and Cole Hamels. The San Francisco Giants signed DeSclafani to a one-year contract for $6 million plus incentives.

[moonslav59]

Post-Prime Porcello is projected (say that five times fast) to have an fWAR of 1.9 in 177 innings in 2021. That's a dollar value of about $15 mill.

 

I would gladly take him for $8-9 million.

 

So, a $125M/7 year deal vs the $82M/4 he got would have amounted to giving him $43M for his last 3 years ($14.3M a year x 3 years).

 

Once again, do you wish we had done that over the $82.5M/4 extension we signed him to?

[notin]

So, a $125M/7 year deal vs the $82M/4 he got would have amounted to giving him $43M for his last 3 years ($14.3M a year x 3 years).

 

Once again, do you wish we had done that over the $82.5M/4 extension we signed him to?

 

No. Next question...

[moonslav59]

Post-Prime Porcello is projected (say that five times fast) to have an fWAR of 1.9 in 177 innings in 2021. That's a dollar value of about $15 mill.

 

I would gladly take him for $8-9 million.

 

Had we signed him to 5 years, it would have been for something like $15-17M more.

 

2 more years- maybe $13-16M more per extra year.

 

3 more years- maybe $12-15M more per extra year.

 

As pitcher's age, their pay usually is lowered.

[dgalehouse]

A rotation where all the starters have a good won / loss record is generally preferable to the opposite. I know it is way too old school, but the team with the best won / loss record is usually awarded the division title.

[notin]

Had we signed him to 5 years, it would have been for something like $15-17M more.

 

2 more years- maybe $13-16M more per extra year.

 

3 more years- maybe $12-15M more per extra year.

 

As pitcher's age, their pay usually is lowered.

 

For all the years Porcello has pitched (12 years, 351 starts, 2096 IP), he just turned 32 this past week. The other 32yo pitchers on the market - Jose Quintana (9 years 1495 IP), Chris Archer (8 years 1235 IP), James Paxton (8 years 753 IP) and Masahiro Tanaka (7 years 1054 IP) - are all not only less durable, but have been that way despite all pitching fewer seasons...

[moonslav59]

No. Next question...

 

Who would you rather sign, this winter?

 

$18M/2 Porcello

 

$18M/2 Lester

[dgalehouse]

Even ERA depends on the defensive abilities of the players behind you. They make more plays, you get a lower ERA. Does that mean you were a better pitcher?

 

ERA can also depend on the bullpen. Have a guy capable of stranding his inherited runners come in after you, you get a lower ERA. Does having a better bullpen make a pitcher better than someone who does not have one?

 

Are you revealing the news that baseball is a team sport ? Thank you. We learn something every day.

[notin]

A rotation where all the starters have a good won / loss record is generally preferable to the opposite. I know it is way too old school, but the team with the best won / loss record is usually awarded the division title.

 

But does that mean they were better pitchers?

 

The Rays rotation, fresh off a World Series appearance, has the same number of wins from their starters since the beginning of the 2019 season as the Rangers. (And fewer than the Red Sox.)

 

"Wins" are a team stat. Sometimes pitchers get wins because the team around them is better...

[notin]

Are you revealing the news that baseball is a team sport ? Thank you. We learn something every day.

 

Well, I think I have to when people think team stats are good for judging individual performance.

 

And I am not the one who brought ERA into the mix as an evaluation. I only like it because it is relatable, but really, it doesn't mean as much as many people like to think it does. I think WHIP is better, because at least it removes the bullpen flaw...

[moonslav59]

For all the years Porcello has pitched (12 years, 351 starts, 2096 IP), he just turned 32 this past week. The other 32yo pitchers on the market - Jose Quintana (9 years 1495 IP), Chris Archer (8 years 1235 IP), James Paxton (8 years 753 IP) and Masahiro Tanaka (7 years 1054 IP) - are all not only less durable, but have been that way despite all pitching fewer seasons...

 

Tanaka is the closest.

 

We need durability, right now.

 

We also need someone who is good.

 

It would be nice, if it was the same guy, but those type are very costly.

[notin]

Tanaka is the closest.

 

We need durability, right now.

 

We also need someone who is good.

 

It would be nice, if it was the same guy, but those type are very costly.

 

This Sox team really needs someone who is a high K guy (preferably with low BB). Until we know who is at 2b and CF, the current defenvei alignment is not really geared towards run prevention. Keeping the ball out of play as much as possible can only help.

 

Porcello is not much for high K. But he is absolutely up there for not walking people.

 

In this market, Paxton (11.16K/9) is the leader among available free agents. But he is always hurt. Chris Archer (10.75) is second over the past 2 seasons. But Archer walks more people...

Edited January 1, 2021 by notin

[notin]

Matt Boyd (10.93 K/9, 2.64 BB/9) is a top my list of targets I would like to see Bloom acquire. For some reason, BTV gives him a very low trade value ($3.5mill), which I doubt agrees with Detroit's evaluations, but they might be gunshy about paying his final two arb years, too...

[moonslav59]

This Sox team really needs someone who is a high K guy (preferably with low BB). Until we know who is at 2b and CF, the current defenvei alignment is not really geared towards run prevention. Keeping the ball out of play as much as possible can only help.

 

Porcello is not much for high K. But he is absolutely up there for not walking people.

 

In this market, Paxton (11.16K/9) is the elader among aviable free agents. But he is always hurt. Chris Archer (10.75) is seconce over the past 2 seasons. but Archer walks more people...

 

Tanaka K's 8.5 (8.3 in 2020) and walks just 1.8 (1.5 in 2020).

 

He had started 27-31 games for 4 straight years before starting 10 in 2020.

[notin]

Tanaka K's 8.5 (8.3 in 2020) and walks just 1.8 (1.5 in 2020).

 

He had started 27-31 games for 4 straight years before starting 10 in 2020.

 

I would suspect he is on the radar. These guys are all going to sign somewhere. So we shall see how many wind up in Boston...

[harmony]

Who would you rather sign, this winter?

 

$18M/2 Porcello

 

$18M/2 Lester

Porcello, Porcello and ... Porcello.

[harmony]

For those who wonder why the old school fans question the value of things like fWAR ; In 2020 , Rick Porcello had a record of 1 - 7 , with an ERA of 5.64 . The Mets have little to no interest in bringing him back.

Rick Porcello will likely sign with team whose disgruntled casual fans will cite the unsightly 1-7 record and 5.64 ERA of 2020.

 

And the team will move forward.

 

MLB front offices have more -- and better -- information than the casual fan. Much of that information is not made public but each free agent signing probably follows a scouting report that at least rivals this 26-page dossier on righthander Chris Flexen, whom the Seattle Mariners signed last month out of the Korean Baseball Organization:

 

http://benhowell71.com/chris-flexen/

 

It's fun to second-guess the folks who have better information and more expertise than we do ... but let's keep it all in perspective.

[notin]

Rick Porcello will likely sign with team whose disgruntled casual fans will cite the unsightly 1-7 record and 5.64 ERA of 2020.

 

And the team will move forward.

 

MLB front offices have more -- and better -- information than the casual fan. Much of that information is not made public but each free agent signing probably follows a scouting report that at least rivals this 26-page dossier on righthander Chris Flexen, whom the Seattle Mariners signed last month out of the Korean Baseball Organization:

 

http://benhowell71.com/chris-flexen/

 

It's fun to second-guess the folks who have better information and more expertise than we do ... but let's keep it all in perspective.

 

Oh there stuff blows us away. It's not like they have not heard of Fangraphs.

 

But baseball is probably the only sport where people like to play GM. No one tries to dream up NFL trade scenarios, because every trade involves salary for draft picks. Player-for-player trades are almost unheard of. And the NBA trading rules are so complex, it actually requires a PhD specializing in NBA Math (which is not an accredited program anywhere in the world) just to understand the rules alone, never mind about determining the actual players each team might want. And even then they get future draft picks with conditions attached. Even the most popular website (http://www.realgm.com) dedicated to determining if NBA trades follow the rules does not include all the rules.

 

And no one watches hockey...

Edited January 1, 2021 by notin

[moonslav59]

Porcello, Porcello and ... Porcello.

 

bWAR last 4 yrs (2020, 2019...)

Porcello: 0.1, 1.2, 3.0, -0.2= 4.5

J Lester: -0.2, 1.4, 3.0, 0.6= 4.8

 

fWAR 2019-2020 (both had 233 IP)

3.4 Porcello

3.0 Lester

 

2018-2020

5.9 Porcello (425 IP)

5.0 Lester (414 IP)

 

2017-2020

7.9 Lester (595 IP)

7.9 Porcello (628 IP)

 

With Porcello being significantly younger, it looks like he'd be the better deal.

 

I'm not so sure.

[Bellhorn04]

I'd go with Porcello because of his durability.

[Kimmi]

A rotation where all the starters have a good won / loss record is generally preferable to the opposite. I know it is way too old school, but the team with the best won / loss record is usually awarded the division title.

 

A rotation's good W-L record could be more a result of a potent offense rather than good pitching.

[Kimmi]

Who would you rather sign, this winter?

 

$18M/2 Porcello

 

$18M/2 Lester

 

As much as I love Lester, I'd take Porcello.