A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

Paxton's health is about as reliable as Eovaldi's. Rather have Porcello.

 

Really if you look at Paxton, Odirizzi, Walker and Jose Quintana, they have all combined for one season with more than 170 IP since 2016.

 

Might as well sign Bauer or Tanaka...

[mvp 78]

Really if you look at Paxton, Odirizzi, Walker and Jose Quintana, they have all combined for one season with more than 170 IP since 2016.

 

Might as well sign Bauer or Tanaka...

 

I'd sign Tanaka before Paxton/Odorizzi/Walker/Quintana.

 

I don't know what it would take to sign Bauer, but he's probably going to be too much.

[notin]

I'd sign Tanaka before Paxton/Odorizzi/Walker/Quintana.

 

I don't know what it would take to sign Bauer, but he's probably going to be too much.

 

And it feels like a step laterally to deal Price and then sign Bauer for probably similar money. Really more money because the Soxare still paying Price. Will they wind up trading Bauer and paying half in 3 seasons?

[mvp 78]

And it feels like a step laterally to deal Price and then sign Bauer for probably similar money. Really more money because the Soxare still paying Price. Will they wind up trading Bauer and paying half in 3 seasons?

 

And there is a concern as to why his spin rate went crazy last year. Sustainable?

[moonslav59]

Really if you look at Paxton, Odirizzi, Walker and Jose Quintana, they have all combined for one season with more than 170 IP since 2016.

 

Might as well sign Bauer or Tanaka...

 

I knew there was someone I was forgetting: Tanaka.

 

I'm not thrilled with Bauer or Tanaka. I felt much better about Price back then, and look where that got us.

[notin]

And there is a concern as to why his spin rate went crazy last year. Sustainable?

 

Maybe. Depends on how he achieved it.

 

Of course, he was a pretty good pitcher prior to the increased spin rate, too...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

... and please don't say Springer.

 

I'm not dropping any specific names -- Bloom himself said the Sox wouldn't rule out anyone who is available. But I just keep reading a lot of experts online dismissing the Red Sox from making any major moves because they're not good enough yet.

 

It's one thing if another club offers a better package of prospects in a trade for a game-changer. The Padres landed Snell; good for them. He's still not Sale circa 2016. It's another thing if a team has the money, but doesn't reinvest it to make it's roster better when they claim they're intending to.

 

I've been saying since the Betts trade that the Red Sox would eventually splurge on another big name splash who will never be as good as Mookie. After the 2020 last place debacle -- that was mercifully abbreviated -- don't be surprised if it's soon. Unless... Bloom gets another pass because of Covid restrictions and adjustments that alter another season's sked...

[moonslav59]

I'm not dropping any specific names --

 

I think the point was, in terms of free agents, there's only 2- Bauer & Springer.

[Bellhorn04]

I've been saying since the Betts trade that the Red Sox would eventually splurge on another big name splash who will never be as good as Mookie. After the 2020 last place debacle -- that was mercifully abbreviated -- don't be surprised if it's soon. Unless... Bloom gets another pass because of Covid restrictions and adjustments that alter another season's sked...

 

Sounds like you see only two possible courses of action: 1) an ill-advised splashy free agent signing; or 2) doing next to nothing.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Sounds like you see only two possible courses of action: 1) an ill-advised splashy free agent signing; or 2) doing next to nothing.

 

If the Sox continue with #2), it will eventually lead to #1) -- but most likely next offseason.

 

That is, unless, the Resets make a major trade next summer for one of the Big Five shortstops they don't really need... but will still improve the club.

[Bellhorn04]

If the Sox continue with #2), it will eventually lead to #1) -- but most likely next offseason.

 

That is, unless, the Resets make a major trade next summer for one of the Big Five shortstops they don't really need... but will still improve the club.

 

The fact is that a tiny % of free agents have been signed to date. I'm still hopeful that Bloom has a better plan than you seem to think.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think the point was, in terms of free agents, there's only 2- Bauer & Springer.

 

I'd argue DJ at second and leadoff would be a better fit in turning around the Sox than Springer. And Realmuto behind the plate and in the heart of the order would be an upgrade over Vaz, who many here want to be swapped for a MLB pitcher who could actually contribute to the starting rotation.

 

Personally, I'd rather not invest so much in an over-30 second baseman when other holes are more pressing. But just throwing out names and numbers: would you rather -- as a fan -- have Vazquez and 20 million dollars for future investments or Realmuto and Taillion for the 2021 Red Sox?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The fact is that a tiny % of free agents have been signed to date. I'm still hopeful that Bloom has a better plan than you seem to think.

 

Believe it or not I'm hopeful of the same thing, too. I'm also hopeful Henry isn't getting ready to sell the team.

[Bellhorn04]

Believe it or not I'm hopeful of the same thing, too. I'm also hopeful Henry isn't getting ready to sell the team.

 

You mean you're worried he is getting ready to sell the team.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You mean you're worried he is getting ready to sell the team.

 

Anyone else not? I'm not saying old dogs like Henry and Warner can't be convinced to look at new tricks... but Bloom compared to all past Sox GM/Officers is such a contrast. If they really believe in Bloom's style, then Warner, at least, and Sam Kennedy, need muzzles about returning to instant contenders again after who they traded and who they added the past year.

[mvp 78]

The fact is that a tiny % of free agents have been signed to date. I'm still hopeful that Bloom has a better plan than you seem to think.

 

Per MLBTradeRumors:

 

73 out of 289 FAs have been signed or 25%.

 

Lots of guys left and we've been saying all along that Bloom will most likely wait until later in the offseason to make his moves as he will try to be buying low in a depressed market.

[mvp 78]

There are 111 pitchers still available, 68 relievers and 43 starters.

 

Notable starters available:

Archer

Arrieta

Bailey

Bauer

Foltynewicz

Hamels

Happ

Hill

Kluber

Leake

Lester

Odorizzi

Paxton

Martin Perez

Porcello

Quintana

Richards

Rodon

Ross

Samardzija

Shoemaker

Sugano

Tanaka

Walker

Wood

Zimmerman

 

Some of those guys are a little long in the tooth or have health concerns, but I think you could still round out your rotation with them if you're signing for depth.

[mvp 78]

Anyone else not? I'm not saying old dogs like Henry and Warner can't be convinced to look at new tricks... but Bloom compared to all past Sox GM/Officers is such a contrast. If they really believe in Bloom's style, then Warner, at least, and Sam Kennedy, need muzzles about returning to instant contenders again after who they traded and who they added the past year.

 

Hard to really say what Bloom's style is. He spent last offseason slashing payroll because of ownership mandate. Now, he's stuck in a weird offseason where teams are expecting a depressed market and don't know how many games will be played or if fans will even be in attendance in certain cities.

[Bellhorn04]

Per MLBTradeRumors:

 

73 out of 289 FAs have been signed or 25%.

 

Lots of guys left and we've been saying all along that Bloom will most likely wait until later in the offseason to make his moves as he will try to be buying low in a depressed market.

 

And I think most of the ones who've signed are the low-end guys.

[Bellhorn04]

Bauer is reportedly looking for 5-6 years at $36 mill per year.

 

Maybe part of the reason things are going slowly is that most players are expecting to get the same kind of deals they would get in a 'normal' offseason.

 

Also: there's really no difference whatever between this thread and the offseason thread, is there? No big deal, except it's a bit of a pain posting news items on both threads.

 

[Bellhorn04]

And it feels like a step laterally to deal Price and then sign Bauer for probably similar money. Really more money because the Soxare still paying Price. Will they wind up trading Bauer and paying half in 3 seasons?

 

Bauer is actually a much worse bet than Price was IMO.

 

He has posted 19.9 fWAR in 1190 innings. That's about 3 WAR per 180 innings, which is good but far from great. His value is being inflated by the Recency Effect.

[mvp 78]

Bauer is actually a much worse bet than Price was IMO.

 

He has posted 19.9 fWAR in 1190 innings. That's about 3 WAR per 180 innings, which is good but far from great. His value is being inflated by the Recency Effect.

 

And his persona.

[Kimmi]

Anyone else not? I'm not saying old dogs like Henry and Warner can't be convinced to look at new tricks... but Bloom compared to all past Sox GM/Officers is such a contrast. If they really believe in Bloom's style, then Warner, at least, and Sam Kennedy, need muzzles about returning to instant contenders again after who they traded and who they added the past year.

 

I don't see Bloom as a contrast to Theo or Ben at all. IMO, those 3 GMs are built out of the same cloth. Dombrowski is the odd man out here. I think Henry is getting back to his team building philosophy after straying from that with Dave.

[Kimmi]

Hard to really say what Bloom's style is. He spent last offseason slashing payroll because of ownership mandate. Now, he's stuck in a weird offseason where teams are expecting a depressed market and don't know how many games will be played or if fans will even be in attendance in certain cities.

 

His style is to build a strong farm so that the team will have short and long term success. He will make a big free agent signing when it makes sense to do so.

[Kimmi]

Bauer is reportedly looking for 5-6 years at $36 mill per year.

 

Maybe part of the reason things are going slowly is that most players are expecting to get the same kind of deals they would get in a 'normal' offseason.

 

Also: there's really no difference whatever between this thread and the offseason thread, is there? No big deal, except it's a bit of a pain posting news items on both threads.

 

 

You hit the nail on the head with both points.

[mvp 78]

His style is to build a strong farm so that the team will have short and long term success. He will make a big free agent signing when it makes sense to do so.

 

I think we assume that his style is that way, but we won't really know for a few years.

 

I think Theo did the best job at building a strong farm system while staying in contention. If things didn't fall apart for him in 2011, maybe he would have been a part of another Sox run.

[moonslav59]

I'd argue DJ at second and leadoff would be a better fit in turning around the Sox than Springer. And Realmuto behind the plate and in the heart of the order would be an upgrade over Vaz, who many here want to be swapped for a MLB pitcher who could actually contribute to the starting rotation.

 

Personally, I'd rather not invest so much in an over-30 second baseman when other holes are more pressing. But just throwing out names and numbers: would you rather -- as a fan -- have Vazquez and 20 million dollars for future investments or Realmuto and Taillion for the 2021 Red Sox?

 

I'd rather us sign DJ or Realmuto over Springer, too, but even those two are not the types of players to spend large and somewhat long on.

 

I'd rather sign Hernandez and Marisnik and use more of the budget on signing RP'ers and maybe someone like Odorizzi or a 1 year deal for Lester.

 

I'm thinking the best way to get a decent SP'er is to trade for one while taking on some salary in the deal.

[moonslav59]

Bauer is actually a much worse bet than Price was IMO.

 

He has posted 19.9 fWAR in 1190 innings. That's about 3 WAR per 180 innings, which is good but far from great. His value is being inflated by the Recency Effect.

 

That's how I see it.

 

I was ho-hum on the Price signing but felt it was necessary.

 

While the necessity for a top pitcher is as real as when we signed Price, we are not an ace away from being a top contender, and Bauer does not have the bonafides Price had when he was signed.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

His style is to build a strong farm so that the team will have short and long term success. He will make a big free agent signing when it makes sense to do so.

 

Not judging by Bloom's time in Tampa. The Rays' big league roster that's been so successful the past few years wasn't built developing their own draft picks, but by constantly trading for and hoarding young, inexpensive, controllable, and ultimately expendable players. A key part of that style is to continually deal those guys while they still have value, to acquire more assets and keep pedaling the cycle. The latter pattern is atypical of most GMs, and unlike any Red Sox GM in modern history.

[Bellhorn04]

That's how I see it.

 

I was ho-hum on the Price signing but felt it was necessary.

 

While the necessity for a top pitcher is as real as when we signed Price, we are not an ace away from being a top contender, and Bauer does not have the bonafides Price had when he was signed.

 

Bonafides - I like this.