A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[jacksonianmarch]

I just reported what I saw on rotoworld. Nothing else

[moonslav59]

I just reported what I saw on rotoworld. Nothing else

 

It's all good, jacko.

 

There's not much difference between middle and back end anyway.

[oldtimer]

It's all good, jacko.

 

There's not much difference between middle and back end anyway.

 

Be interesting to learn what the Rangers had to pay to obtain and middle to bottom of the rotation starter.

[Kimmi]

I enjoy the same - the success stories never grow old. On occasion some of those players who the analysists have already pigeon holed as being mediocre surprise us all. Like so much in life, I think that it takes a blend of a variety of philosophies to be successful. Signing too many supposed superstars can obviously limit a franchises future but not taking a shot now and then on a proven player can hurt a team ultimately in many ways as well. Obviously, I am speaking entirely for myself but there are many more reasons than winning for which i follow this team. But oh well, I loved them just as much when Malzone was at third, Bressued at short, Mantilla at second, and good old Dick Stuart was at first.

 

I don't really disagree with what you're saying. Occasionally, it might be necessary to sign a player to a big contract. I don't think that it should be done to make a splash, but rather because it's the right move to make for the short and long term goals of the team.

 

Posters here will typically follow the team whether we are winning or losing. Our love and appreciation of the game go beyond just winning. But for most fans, winning is what gets the fans involved.

[Kimmi]

Mookie was smart. He took the big multi-year offer on the table from the Dodgers, instead of waiting for free agency. I don’t think there will be a lot of big multi year contracts given out in a Covid off-season. I don’t anticipate one of the any of the big names coming off the board for January. It would be a smart move for a big free agent to take a larger one-year contract this off-season, assuming that it might be prorated, and look for the multi year deal next off-season.

 

I think Mookie was very concerned about what his free agency would look like once this pandemic hit. IMO, he was very fortunate to get an offer like he did from the Dodgers, and it would have been foolish of him not to accept. I was thinking that Mookie might be one such player to take a one year contract this season and try his luck again next season.

[Kimmi]

Be interesting to learn what the Rangers had to pay to obtain and middle to bottom of the rotation starter.

 

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Rangers have come to terms with the 28-year-old Arihara, beating out both Boston and the Padres. The deal is for two years worth between $6-7 million according to multiple reports.

[moonslav59]

What would the Rangers give up, in order to dump Odor's contract?

[Bellhorn04]

What would the Rangers give up, in order to dump Odor's contract?

 

This signing suggests maybe the Rangers are not so much in salary dump mode.

[moonslav59]

This signing suggests maybe the Rangers are not so much in salary dump mode.

 

Maybe they made this signing, knowing they will be dumping enough salary to pay for it.

 

I'm thinking maybe 20 teams are looking to dump some higher priced player or two. (Some we may not even view as being overpaid or even paid all that much.)

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe they made this signing, knowing they will be dumping enough salary to pay for it.

 

I'm thinking maybe 20 teams are looking to dump some higher priced player or two. (Some we may not even view as being overpaid or even paid all that much.)

 

Who knows at this point? It's all moving at a snail's pace.

[moonslav59]

Who knows at this point? It's all moving at a snail's pace.

 

True, and teams looking to dump salaries need teams willing to take on those deals. There aren't many of those- in theory.

[notin]

Maybe they made this signing, knowing they will be dumping enough salary to pay for it.

 

I'm thinking maybe 20 teams are looking to dump some higher priced player or two. (Some we may not even view as being overpaid or even paid all that much.)

 

Like Brad Hand

[moonslav59]

Like Brad Hand

 

Yes, and guys like Josh Bell and maybe Adam Frazier.

[notin]

This signing suggests maybe the Rangers are not so much in salary dump mode.

 

They've been trying to pawn off Odor's deal for a while now...

[notin]

What would the Rangers give up, in order to dump Odor's contract?

 

Or what would the Orioles use to entice a team to take one year of Alex Cobb at $15mill?

 

Cobb has not been worth the money and has had his share of health issues, but he is a guy Bloom is familiar with and has shown flashes of serious ability...

[Bellhorn04]

They've been trying to pawn off Odor's deal for a while now...

 

I would suggest that if they were motivated enough to make it suitably attractive for other teams it would be done by now.

[moonslav59]

I would suggest that if they were motivated enough to make it suitably attractive for other teams it would be done by now.

 

The financial landscape has changed drastically over the past few months. Maybe there will be more incentive to move him, now.

[harmony]

Or what would the Orioles use to entice a team to take one year of Alex Cobb at $15mill?

 

Cobb has not been worth the money and has had his share of health issues, but he is a guy Bloom is familiar with and has shown flashes of serious ability...

Before the Red Sox signed Hunter Renfroe, a package of one year of Alex Cobb and two years of righthand-hitting outfielder Trey Mancini may have worked.

 

Or not.

 

Neither Cobb nor Mancini is likely to fall within Baltimore's window of contention.

[jacksonianmarch]

Mancini may not survive to the end of the contract. Mancini is untradeable entirely.

[moonslav59]

We could still use a CF'er (or RF'er, if we move Verdugo to CF), and I'm not giving up on the notion of getting Kiermaier from the Rays.

 

The issue has to be who we get with him.

 

I'd love to get Anderson, but I doubt that is workable without us opening another whole somewhere else (Vazquez?).

 

More likely we could get Fairbanks or Fleiming- maybe Yarbrough without having to give too much back due to the negative value of Kiermaier.

[notin]

I would suggest that if they were motivated enough to make it suitably attractive for other teams it would be done by now.

 

Why?

 

It’s not like there has been a wave of salary dumps lately...

[harmony]

Mancini may not survive to the end of the contract. Mancini is untradeable entirely.

https://calltothepen.com/2020/12/16/baltimore-orioles-trey-mancini-to-be-full-go-for-spring-training/

 

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-trey-mancini-chris-davis-20201214-ygypghblfvazfcus3juwgswy5a-story.html

Edited December 26, 2020 by harmony

[jacksonianmarch]

I’m sure he does and I hope he’s cured. But stage 3 colon cancer has a 40% cure rate and is absolutely notorious for coming back after remission is achieved. Have a friend who just died at 42 of it and he battled it for 5 years. I hope he lives a full life, for sure, but the odds are against him that it’s behind him and hence, he’s got zero trade value

[cp176]

I don't really disagree with what you're saying. Occasionally, it might be necessary to sign a player to a big contract. I don't think that it should be done to make a splash, but rather because it's the right move to make for the short and long term goals of the team.

 

Posters here will typically follow the team whether we are winning or losing. Our love and appreciation of the game go beyond just winning. But for most fans, winning is what gets the fans involved.

 

i agree

[oldtimer]

We could still use a CF'er (or RF'er, if we move Verdugo to CF), and I'm not giving up on the notion of getting Kiermaier from the Rays.

 

The issue has to be who we get with him.

 

I'd love to get Anderson, but I doubt that is workable without us opening another whole somewhere else (Vazquez?).

 

More likely we could get Fairbanks or Fleiming- maybe Yarbrough without having to give too much back due to the negative value of Kiermaier.

 

I'll agree with the idea that we could still use an outfielder, either from trade, FA or within the organization. The corollary to that is hat we need to be willing to let go of those that aren't performing by replacing them with the new additions who we hope will perform better. In my prior work life we operated a fairly hard ass personnel policy that identified the A, B and C players with the dictate of replacing C players in order to improve our competitiveness. I see something like that approach being used on baseball roster.

 

I tend to be a little old school in that I like the idea of loyalty by both managers and players, although there is not much of that around these days. Even so, the team needs to get rid of dead wood and I believe under Bloom, we will do just that. Not something where we snap our fingers and it all gets done, but more a steady approach where each move is done either of necessity or to directly improve the team. I expect to see substantial activity in January and February.

[moonslav59]

I'll agree with the idea that we could still use an outfielder, either from trade, FA or within the organization. The corollary to that is hat we need to be willing to let go of those that aren't performing by replacing them with the new additions who we hope will perform better. In my prior work life we operated a fairly hard ass personnel policy that identified the A, B and C players with the dictate of replacing C players in order to improve our competitiveness. I see something like that approach being used on baseball roster.

 

I tend to be a little old school in that I like the idea of loyalty by both managers and players, although there is not much of that around these days. Even so, the team needs to get rid of dead wood and I believe under Bloom, we will do just that. Not something where we snap our fingers and it all gets done, but more a steady approach where each move is done either of necessity or to directly improve the team. I expect to see substantial activity in January and February.

 

The problem is, you don't want to sell at an all time low value on guys like Beni & JD.

[notin]

Sox are apparently interested in Enrique Hernandez as a 2b. First name on my prediction they’ve shown interest in so far...

[jacksonianmarch]

And it makes sense too

[moonslav59]

Sox are apparently interested in Enrique Hernandez as a 2b. First name on my prediction they’ve shown interest in so far...

 

He can play 2B & CF, among many other positions, so it makes sense. Maybe he's the only new, non pitching piece we add, this winter.

[moonslav59]

Hernandez has a bit of pop in his bat. He averages about 25 HRs per 700 PAs- career.

 

He has a .744 OPS over the last 4 seasons.

 

Here are his defensive metrics (some small sample sizes):

 

2B (1263 innings)

-6.2 UZR/150 and +18 DRS

 

CF (1109 innings)

+8.4 UZR/150 and +4 DRS

 

LF (603 innings)

+18 UZR & +14 DRS

 

SS (536 innings)

+10.4 UZR & +3 DRS

 

RF (342 innings)

+11.9 UZR & +3 DRS

 

3B (155 innings)

-28.4 UZR & -1 DRS

 

1B (89 innings)

+17.4 UZR & -2 DRS

 

Edited December 27, 2020 by moonslav59