A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

Did you count Price's 26 innings in the 2018 postseason?

 

Did you account for the fact they shut him down early in 2019 because the team was out of it and there was no sense putting him at risk in meaningless games?

 

He really only had that one injury-plagued season in 2017.

 

In 2014-2016 he pitched mega-innings.

 

Calling him "injury prone" is definitely overstating it.

 

I mentioned his 2018 playoff heroics and stated my view that most recent 2-3 years matter more than career numbers. It's what I've always used, so this is not some tweak to my philosophy to support this position.

 

Price was a horse when we signed him. That's the main reason I was okay with the signing. Almost everyone agreed the latter years were likely to be problematic, and it turned out the middle years ended up being so.

 

This about where Price was at the end of 2019 and what his perceived value was. I'm not calling anyone nuts for thinking he was worth close to $16M a year, but I do take issue with the 3 years part.

 

I firmly believe it was the Sox who demanded LA take him. Maybe the money "evened out" that part of the deal, but my guess is we'd have gotten slightly more had Price not been part of the deal. Maybe, someday, the details will emerge.

[moonslav59]

Charlie Morton had pitched more than 170 innings once in his whole career when the Rays signed him. Once - his career best 171.2 innings way back in 2011!

 

A real horse!

 

I never caalled him a horse and even provided data that showed that while he had more IP than Price in his previous 2 seasons, he had less in his previous 3 seasons.

 

I didn't bring up Morton's name to support my position. I only responded to a post about him and Happ. He also did not get 3 years.

[notin]

Even if you prefer the Morton and Happ deals, they're obviously in the same ballpark with the one for Price. Happ's deal included a vesting option which could have made it 3 years.

 

And Price has better career numbers than those two.

 

16 * 3 for Price would be a little questionable, but certainly not outlandish.

 

From 2017 to 2919, Price was worth 6.2 fWAR in 358 IP.

 

From 20178 to 2019, Madison Bumgarner was worth 6.2 fWAR in 458 IP.

 

From 2017 to 2019, Kyle Gibson was woth 6.2 fWAR in 514 IP

 

From 2017 to 2019, Zack Godley was worth 5.8 fWAR in 425 IP.

 

Bumgarner, 4 years younger than Price, received a 5 year $85mill contract for a $17mill AAV.

 

Gibson, 3 years younger than Price, received a 3 year deal $30 mill offer for a $10mill AAV.

 

Godley, 5 years younger than Price, received a minor league contract.

 

Price was the oldest and least durable of these pitchers. He has a big name, and an excellent resume. But to think he would get the same AAV as the other big name in Bumgarner is probably a bit of a pipe dream, especialyl given the differences in age and IP. It's hard to say exactly where the market would have placed him, but a 3 year $16-17mill AAV is absolutely best case scenario if it was possible at all.

 

The only reason to pay that much for Price is if a GM thinks his name still carries significant PR weight so as to bolster ticket sales...

[Bellhorn04]

From 2017 to 2919, Price was worth 6.2 fWAR in 358 IP.

 

From 20178 to 2019, Madison Bumgarner was worth 6.2 fWAR in 458 IP.

 

Yeah, I think that means Price actually pitched about 25% better...

[notin]

Yeah, I think that means Price actually pitched about 25% better...

 

For the IP he was available.

 

That Bumgarner alleviated 100 more innings from relievers and sixth starters has significant value, too. Bottom line is both contributed equally over a 3 year stretch.

 

And at 4 years younger, Bumgarner is more likely the greater value going forward...

[notin]

Did you count Price's 26 innings in the 2018 postseason?

 

Did you account for the fact they shut him down early in 2019 because the team was out of it and there was no sense putting him at risk in meaningless games?

 

He really only had that one injury-plagued season in 2017.

 

In 2014-2016 he pitched mega-innings.

Calling him "injury prone" is definitely overstating it.

 

So did John Lackey and RA Dickey. Are they worth $48 mill for 3 years too?

 

I think for MLB starting pitchers, the seasons 2014 through 2016 can be considered a long time ago...

Edited September 22, 2020 by notin

[Slasher9]

f*** price. i am glad he's gone.

[kenmeister]

So did John Lackey and RA Dickey. Are they would $48 mill for 3 years too?

 

I think for MLB starting pitchers, the seasons 2014 through 2016 can be considered a long time ago...

 

I'm wondering who the better signing was, Lackey or Price. Both had very similar careers in Boston. They didn't live up to expectations except for one year, and we won the World Series that year.

[notin]

I'm wondering who the better signing was, Lackey or Price. Both had very similar careers in Boston. They didn't live up to expectations except for one year, and we won the World Series that year.

 

Lackey gave the Sox 3 awful years (counting the one he missed) up front, but managed to have a great year at exactly the right time, including some stellar postseason work....

[mvp 78]

@SoxNotes

In his last 31 games (beginning Aug. 14), Jackie Bradley Jr. has hit .306 with an .894 OPS.

 

According to Statcast, Bradley has recorded 6 outs above average, tied with Luis Robert for most in the majors among outfielders.

 

JBJ is coming back next year, baby...

[Nick]

Yeah, I think that means Price actually pitched about 25% better...

 

This is absolutely correct. Moon thinks Madison Bumgarner saved the team 100 innings worth of worn arms. Well I disagree. What happened was Bumgarner took away opportunity from another player posting a positive WAR for those 100 innings.

[Bellhorn04]

Lackey gave the Sox 3 awful years (counting the one he missed) up front, but managed to have a great year at exactly the right time, including some stellar postseason work....

 

Nope. Lackey had a 3.3 fWAR in 2010. Unless you are not buying fWAR all of a sudden.

[Slasher9]

@SoxNotes

In his last 31 games (beginning Aug. 14), Jackie Bradley Jr. has hit .306 with an .894 OPS.

 

According to Statcast, Bradley has recorded 6 outs above average, tied with Luis Robert for most in the majors among outfielders.

 

JBJ is coming back next year, baby...

 

this post made my day

[notin]

Nope. Lackey had a 3.3 fWAR in 2010. Unless you are not buying fWAR all of a sudden.

 

Ok, but then he combined for 0.9 fWAR in the nest 2 seasons. His 4.2 fWAR from 2010-2012 is certainly a far from impressive run...

[notin]

@SoxNotes

In his last 31 games (beginning Aug. 14), Jackie Bradley Jr. has hit .306 with an .894 OPS.

 

According to Statcast, Bradley has recorded 6 outs above average, tied with Luis Robert for most in the majors among outfielders.

 

JBJ is coming back next year, baby...

 

I'm ok with that. As long as they don't go overboard with the years...

[Nick]

this post made my day

 

At the right price....not worth $10M/year on this team...

[mvp 78]

I'm ok with that. As long as they don't go overboard with the years...

 

Probably 2 year deal. 2/12?

[mvp 78]

At the right price....not worth $10M/year on this team...

 

Well, he won't get that on the open market.

[Bellhorn04]

Ok, but then he combined for 0.9 fWAR in the nest 2 seasons. His 4.2 fWAR from 2010-2012 is certainly a far from impressive run...

 

It's really hard to be impressive when you're injured.

[notin]

It's really hard to be impressive when you're injured.

 

Yes, which is why I am down on Eovaldi as a starter.

 

Lackey did turn it around after 2 awful years, but not many pitchers will give you that on long term free agent contracts..

[notin]

Probably 2 year deal. 2/12?

 

I'm very ok with that...

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, which is why I am down on Eovaldi as a starter.

 

Lackey did turn it around after 2 awful years, but not many pitchers will give you that on long term free agent contracts..

 

Lackey turned it around after Tommy John surgery. He ended up yielding good value on the deal. The injury clause in his contract was triggered and he played in 2015 for minimum wage. Which was good work by Theo, although it was St. Louis who got the benefit. We did get some value from Joe Kelly.

[notin]

I stand corrected on Yasmani Grandahl and James McCann, who switched teams as free agents.

 

Wilson Ramos was traded on July 31, 2018, and J.T. Realmuto was traded on February 7, 2019.

 

A majority of the 30 top catchers of the last three seasons have changed teams during that period, an indication that the market is fluid.

 

But only 3 of the top 10 have, and only 2 were traded (Realmuto and Jorge Alfaro)...

[notin]

Any thoughts on these free agents?

 

LeMahieu $90M/4

Brantley $45M/3

Turner $25M/2 (Move Devers to 1B?)

 

Others listed on bleacherreport that might fall near our likely contract range:

Kirby Yates

Mike Minor

Shane Greene

Liam Hendricks

Jonathan Schoop

 

If we decide to go larger (maybe for one not 2 guys)

Tanaka

Stroman

Ozuna

Springer

 

I would avoid LeMahieu, since there is no way to tie him to an improved pitching staff. Not like anyone playing 2B for Boston is great trade bait.

I would avoid Turner, while it does create a logjam with Devers and Dalbec, I think the Sox are better off with their current corner infielders.

Brantley is an interesting thought. Excellent hitter who frees up Benintendi. My only concern is how much field he will be able to play over the next 3 seasons, since the Sox are likely to have DH filled for 2 of them.

 

Forget Yates, Minor, Greene. Hendriks and Schoop have promise in my eyes. The reliever market is one the Sox relly need to look in to, but the bet option is a tough call.

 

Springer and Ozuna figure to be among the most expensive, and the money is probably better spent on Bauer or Realmuto. Tanaka is a Yankee, so pass. Stroman is a possibility, as is Robbie Ray...

[Bellhorn04]

This is absolutely correct. Moon thinks Madison Bumgarner saved the team 100 innings worth of worn arms. Well I disagree. What happened was Bumgarner took away opportunity from another player posting a positive WAR for those 100 innings.

 

Yes, anything above replacement level would put you ahead on the deal.

[moonslav59]

Lackey gave the Sox 3 awful years (counting the one he missed) up front, but managed to have a great year at exactly the right time, including some stellar postseason work....

 

His first season was not "awful." Disappointing, yes. Not great, yes. "Awful," no.

 

14-11 4.40 ERA+ 99 (1.419 WHIP is pretty bad.)

[notin]

This is absolutely correct. Moon thinks Madison Bumgarner saved the team 100 innings worth of worn arms. Well I disagree. What happened was Bumgarner took away opportunity from another player posting a positive WAR for those 100 innings.

 

What?

 

It's a really, really safe bet that any reliever contributing positively would have had ample work opportunities. Even the managers you don't like manage their bullpens that way....

[moonslav59]

This is absolutely correct. Moon thinks Madison Bumgarner saved the team 100 innings worth of worn arms. Well I disagree. What happened was Bumgarner took away opportunity from another player posting a positive WAR for those 100 innings.

 

It was notin, not me, but more IP'd at a very nice WAR rate is a plus.

[notin]

Yes, anything above replacement level would put you ahead on the deal.

 

So what you're saying is that when giving Price a contract, a GM might think "Well he does not throw as many innings as other pitchers, but that means he gives better opportunities to the relief pitchers to pick up the slack. Hey, that is worth $17 mill per year!!"

 

Just imagine how much Price could get if he stopped pitching altogether!!!

[moonslav59]

So what you're saying is that when giving Price a contract, a GM might think "Well he does not throw as many innings as other pitchers, but that means he gives better opportunities to the relief pitchers to pick up the slack. Hey, that is worth $17 mill per year!!"

 

Just imagine how much Price could get if he stopped pitching altogether!!!

 

Like $0 for 2020?