A Realistic View at 2020: Part II

[notin]

I don't think it works like that.

 

I think, if SD pays half his salary, we are charged half his lux tax cost ($6.9M) not $3.8M.

 

 

Where’s Bellhorn?

 

If his AAV is $13.8 mill, and San Diego pays $10mill per year for 3 years, are the Sox charged $3.8 mill towards the CBT or $6.9 mill?

 

I look at it this way. Myers = $13.8mill AAV. If SD is paying $10mill AAV for the next 3 years, that leaves $3.8 mill for Boston. Otherwise is SD paying $6.9mill towards the tax? Or $10mill? I don’t think it matters much to them...

[mvp 78]

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2020/02/boston-red-sox-trade-rumors-potential-wil-myers-trade-could-involve-three-teams-with-reds-included-report.html

 

Though the extension Myers signed in Jan. 2017 calls for him to be paid $61 million ($20 million each season plus a $1 million buyout) through 2022, he’ll cost significantly less against the competitive balance tax threshold. Because Myers -- whose total deal was worth $83 million over six years -- has a backloaded deal, the CBT hit (which is based on average annual value) will be just $13.83 million in each season.

 

If the Sox took on half -- say, $30 million -- of Myers’ remaining salary, they’d take a CBT hit of less than $4 million in each of the next three years. The math is complicated, but that number comes from the money that would be sent from San Diego to Boston being equally spread over the remaining three years, lowering the CBT hit in each season. That scenario would be palatable for the Red Sox 2020, with their projected payroll then estimated to still be less than $200 million.

[notin]

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2020/02/boston-red-sox-trade-rumors-potential-wil-myers-trade-could-involve-three-teams-with-reds-included-report.html

 

Though the extension Myers signed in Jan. 2017 calls for him to be paid $61 million ($20 million each season plus a $1 million buyout) through 2022, he’ll cost significantly less against the competitive balance tax threshold. Because Myers -- whose total deal was worth $83 million over six years -- has a backloaded deal, the CBT hit (which is based on average annual value) will be just $13.83 million in each season.

 

If the Sox took on half -- say, $30 million -- of Myers’ remaining salary, they’d take a CBT hit of less than $4 million in each of the next three years. The math is complicated, but that number comes from the money that would be sent from San Diego to Boston being equally spread over the remaining three years, lowering the CBT hit in each season. That scenario would be palatable for the Red Sox 2020, with their projected payroll then estimated to still be less than $200 million.

 

So at $3.8mil. Without knowing what is available for the Sox before the thresh hold (which is a massive factor here, and really, the most important if not only factor), I could see taking the $8.8mill hit for another prospect. But I don't know how amenable any of this is to SD...

[mvp 78]

So at $3.8mil. Without knowing what is available for the Sox before the thresh hold (which is a massive factor here, and really, the most important if not only factor), I could see taking the $8.8mill hit for another prospect. But I don't know how amenable any of this is to SD...

 

No matter what, I think Bloom wants as much wiggle room as possible. If the Sox go on a run and are in the hunt at the deadline, it would be nice for them to grab a guy or two and not worry about going over the CBT.

[notin]

No matter what, I think Bloom wants as much wiggle room as possible. If the Sox go on a run and are in the hunt at the deadline, it would be nice for them to grab a guy or two and not worry about going over the CBT.

 

I think that is the plan. I expect Myers and Quantrill, and have my doubts on the inclusion of Campusano or Arias. Although possibly the Sox might settle for Jake Cronenworth, the SS/RHP Bloom is familiar with as he came from the Tampa farm.

 

(As Tampa and SD have made two big trades this off-season, Bloom will actually have a decent choice of his former farmhands if he goes in that direction.)

[a700hitter]

Every hour I check the wires to see if Bloom gets a starting pitcher. By my count, the Red Sox have 4 starters and all major league teams go with a 5 man rotation.

[notin]

Every hour I check the wires to see if Bloom gets a starting pitcher. By my count, the Red Sox have 4 starters and all major league teams go with a 5 man rotation.

 

And if you look at the depth charts on MLB.com, most teams have 7 to 9 starting pitchers. The Sox still have just 4....

[a700hitter]

And if you look at the depth charts on MLB.com, most teams have 7 to 9 starting pitchers. The Sox still have just 4....

Even the idiot Met organization has a competition going for their 5 spots as they have 6-7 MLB starters.

[mvp 78]

Every hour I check the wires to see if Bloom gets a starting pitcher. By my count, the Red Sox have 4 starters and all major league teams go with a 5 man rotation.

 

Did the Rays last year?

[a700hitter]

Did the Rays last year?

I know that at times they ran out a bullpen day. Did they do that all season long?

 

Edit: They also had 2 starters Beeks and Yarbrough who followed the opener.

[mvp 78]

I know that at times they ran out a bullpen day. Did they do that all season long?

 

Edit: They also had 2 starters Beeks and Yarbrough who followed the opener.

 

Beeks and Yarbrough pitched the same games or different? Were they really going with 3 starters and 2 openers? I didn't watch enough Rays games last year after I moved down. I saw a few Beeks starts but am not sure I saw Yarbrough pitch.

[mvp 78]

Per bbref: it looks like they used Morton/Chirinos/Snell/Glassnow. Once Glassnow was injured, Yarbrough became a starter.

 

Beeks pitched in 33 games, and only started 3. He was typically the guy to come in after the opener. At some point, they were going with two openers. One for Beeks and one for Yarbrough?

[Bellhorn04]

Stanek was used as the Rays opener a lot, till they traded him off.

[moonslav59]

Where’s Bellhorn?

 

If his AAV is $13.8 mill, and San Diego pays $10mill per year for 3 years, are the Sox charged $3.8 mill towards the CBT or $6.9 mill?

 

I look at it this way. Myers = $13.8mill AAV. If SD is paying $10mill AAV for the next 3 years, that leaves $3.8 mill for Boston. Otherwise is SD paying $6.9mill towards the tax? Or $10mill? I don’t think it matters much to them...

 

If we pay $11M and SD pays $11M of Myers's salary this year, why do we get a bigger break on the lux tax line. It seems, to me, like the lux tax line would be split 50-50, too.

[Bellhorn04]

If we pay $11M and SD pays $11M of Myers's salary this year, why do we get a bigger break on the lux tax line. It seems, to me, like the lux tax line would be split 50-50, too.

 

No, I think it's just a straight deduction.

[moonslav59]

No, I think it's just a straight deduction.

 

Why would SD, who is paying half his contract, get off the hook ? - not that they pay lux tax, anyways.

 

Maybe they take the percentage of the whole contract from day one that SD is paying us and apply that to the lux tax numbers.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Why would SD, who is paying half his contract, get off the hook ? - not that they pay lux tax, anyways.

 

Maybe they take the percentage of the whole contract from day one that SD is paying us and apply that to the lux tax numbers.

 

 

There are no percentage or pro-rating calculations.

 

The way it's done is actually pretty simple.

 

The AAV is transferred to the team acquiring the contract.

 

The actual salary being paid by the trading team is then subtracted.

 

For the team who traded the player, the amount of salary they are paying is added to their tax number.

 

So nobody gets off the hook.

 

You can see this on Cot's with how Price shows on the Red Sox and Dodgers numbers for 2020.

[moonslav59]

There are no percentage or pro-rating calculations.

 

The way it's done is actually pretty simple.

 

The AAV is transferred to the team acquiring the contract.

 

The actual salary being paid by the trading team is then subtracted.

 

For the team who traded the player, the amount of salary they are paying is added to their tax number.

 

So nobody gets off the hook.

 

You can see this on Cot's with how Price shows on the Red Sox and Dodgers numbers for 2020.

 

I'm not saying this is not the way it's done. I'm still not sure, although I trust cots.

 

I will say, if SD and BOS were both paying a luxury tax (hypothetically), then it would seem like one team is getting off the hook of paying taxes. If both teams are paying half the traded player's salary, but one team pays more taxes, I'd say the other team is "getting off the hook."

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not saying this is not the way it's done. I'm still not sure, although I trust cots.

 

I will say, if SD and BOS were both paying a luxury tax (hypothetically), then it would seem like one team is getting off the hook of paying taxes. If both teams are paying half the traded player's salary, but one team pays more taxes, I'd say the other team is "getting off the hook."

 

The AAV/tax quirks are the only reason this potential trade for Myers has any appeal to the Red Sox.

 

It's just a slight variation on the standard salary dump concept.

[moonslav59]

The AAV/tax quirks are the only reason this potential trade for Myers has any appeal to the Red Sox.

 

It's just a slight variation on the standard salary dump concept.

 

I get the quirk with the AVV. Myer's got paid much more early in his deal, so his AVV is way less than his actual salary, now. That part will save the Sox a lot of space on the luxury line, regardless of how the formula works when a team pays the other to take a player. His AVV is $13.8M, but he's making $20M.

 

It seems fair, that if both teams pay half his salry, it would mean both teams get charged half on the lux tax (about $6.9M each) and not SD $10M and us $3.8M. I'm not saying I know what the rule is, but if it is as you say it is, it clearly lets one team "off the hook" at the expense of the other.

 

To me, maybe the fairest way is to take the percent of his whole deal SD is giving us, and then apply that percent to the AVV and split it that way, but I doubt that is the way it is, especially since they don't go back and retroactively change the numbers of years in the past, which my suggested way would do.

 

I hope the number would be $3.8M for us, not $6.9M, but either way, it's a good deal for us, if we get Quantrill and maybe another prospect plus Myers, who I am not writing off, for just $3.8 or $6.( on the lux budget.

[mvp 78]

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2020/02/boston-red-sox-trade-rumors-potential-wil-myers-trade-could-involve-three-teams-with-reds-included-report.html

 

Though the extension Myers signed in Jan. 2017 calls for him to be paid $61 million ($20 million each season plus a $1 million buyout) through 2022, he’ll cost significantly less against the competitive balance tax threshold. Because Myers -- whose total deal was worth $83 million over six years -- has a backloaded deal, the CBT hit (which is based on average annual value) will be just $13.83 million in each season.

 

If the Sox took on half -- say, $30 million -- of Myers’ remaining salary, they’d take a CBT hit of less than $4 million in each of the next three years. The math is complicated, but that number comes from the money that would be sent from San Diego to Boston being equally spread over the remaining three years, lowering the CBT hit in each season. That scenario would be palatable for the Red Sox 2020, with their projected payroll then estimated to still be less than $200 million.

 

Moon, I have posted the above multiple times. Bell seems to be correct in his calculation.

[OH FOY]

Anybody think we see a Rusney Castillo sighting this season?

[cp176]

Anybody think we see a Rusney Castillo sighting this season?

 

likely not in a Red Sox uniform. Regardless of how much he is paid, what happened to him was an absolute tragedy and never should have happened.

[mvp 78]

Anybody think we see a Rusney Castillo sighting this season?

 

Yes, today at 1:05 pm.

[mvp 78]

likely not in a Red Sox uniform. Regardless of how much he is paid, what happened to him was an absolute tragedy and never should have happened.

 

The tragedy was signing him in the first place. Good for his bank account though.

[Slasher9]

Anybody think we see a Rusney Castillo sighting this season?

 

not this season. but i expect him to be our 4th OFer next season at league minimum. unless he chooses to retire.

[Bellhorn04]

It seems fair, that if both teams pay half his salry, it would mean both teams get charged half on the lux tax (about $6.9M each) and not SD $10M and us $3.8M. I'm not saying I know what the rule is, but if it is as you say it is, it clearly lets one team "off the hook" at the expense of the other.

 

San Diego is sort of 'on the hook' with the tax number - but that's the only way they can unload half of Myers's contract. So they get a benefit from it as well.

 

The Red Sox get a break on the tax number, but only by taking on half of Myers's contract.

 

So I think it's a fair trade-off.

[Bellhorn04]

not this season. but i expect him to be our 4th OFer next season at league minimum. unless he chooses to retire.

 

I read today he's a free agent after this year, so that's out the window.

[mvp 78]

San Diego is sort of 'on the hook' with the tax number - but that's the only way they can unload half of Myers's contract. So they get a benefit from it as well.

 

The Red Sox get a break on the tax number, but only by taking on half of Myers's contract.

 

So I think it's a fair trade-off.

 

Seems "fair" that if you signed the s***** contract in the first place, that it would most likely go against your lux tax.

[notin]

Anybody think we see a Rusney Castillo sighting this season?

 

Not before September.

 

And only if the Sox are out of it and his salary won't push them over the CBT...