Paxton out 3-4 months

[jacksonianmarch]

He just had back surgery. This puts him on track for May-June, likely the latter. Thank god we have Cole!

[a700hitter]

Finally, some good news.

[Bellhorn04]

finally, some good news.

 

lol

[bkzwhitestrican]

Not ideal since German is also gonna miss the first couple of months. But maybe we'll get an extended look at Deivi or Schmidt which would be cool.

[Bellhorn04]

Not ideal since German is also gonna miss the first couple of months. But maybe we'll get an extended look at Deivi or Schmidt which would be cool.

 

You guys laugh in the face of sidelined players anyway.

[jacksonianmarch]

This isn’t the worst news. We will now keep Happ to the deadline and JMont has the inside track to the 5th starter spot. We have big league depth. We have minor league depth. Our pen is intact. Our lineup is intact. We will still crush

[Kimmi]

This isn’t the worst news. We will now keep Happ to the deadline and JMont has the inside track to the 5th starter spot. We have big league depth. We have minor league depth. Our pen is intact. Our lineup is intact. We will still crush

 

The Yankees are going down.

[mvp 78]

The Yankees are going down.

 

Rays taking the division

[bkzwhitestrican]

Rays taking the division

 

C'mon man you gotta at least pretend that you think the Sox will win the division

[mvp 78]

C'mon man you gotta at least pretend that you think the Sox will win the division

 

Not this year. Maybe WC?

 

The Sox rotation without Price and Porcello is a big downgrade.

[Kimmi]

Not this year. Maybe WC?

 

The Sox rotation without Price and Porcello is a big downgrade.

 

Bloom isn't finished yet. He has money to play with.

 

2020 will be the start of our next back to back to back.

[jacksonianmarch]

Bloom isn't finished yet. He has money to play with.

 

2020 will be the start of our next back to back to back.

 

You are pretty funny Kimmi. 2020 will be the year of the Yankee. We have enough big league depth to absorb German AND Paxton missing the first two months of the season. We also have enough minor league depth to absorb further injuries. With our bullpen and our offense, we will be able to bludgeon teams when the starter doesn't go well. We have a two headed monster better than anyone in baseball (outside of maybe Washington) with Cole and Severino. Tanaka is a damn good mid rotation guy. Montgomery has to have the inside edge to a spot. Happ wasn't exactly good last year, but finished with increased velo and performance.

 

Interestingly enough, our schedule is pretty balanced this year. Last year, we seemed to feed on the O's early and the Jays late, but it seems to be a bit more equal. Over the first 2 months, we face

 

Orioles 7

Rays 7

Jays 6

A's 3

Rangers 3

Reds 3

Tigers 7

Guardians 3

Pirates 2

Red Sox 3

Astros 3

Brewers 3

Mariners 4

Twins 3

Angels 3

 

That is 60 games, 26 of them vs the Mariners, O's, Tigers, Pirates, or Jays, all teams expected to be at or near the bottom of the entire league in wins. While we see the Jays and O's more spread out, we do get our Tigers 2 series and the IL series vs the Pirates out of the way early, lending towards a nice coast into the season.

[mvp 78]

Looks like 32-28 to me.

[Slasher9]

0-60

[bkzwhitestrican]

I think the Jays will be competitive this year. My guess is they'll finish around .500 or slightly better. The O's on the other hand will probably lose 120 games. My guess for the Yankees' first 60 is 36-24.

[bkzwhitestrican]

Not this year. Maybe WC?

 

The Sox rotation without Price and Porcello is a big downgrade.

 

Well to be fair, just removing 2019 Porcello from the rotation should be an upgrade this season.

[mvp 78]

Well to be fair, just removing 2019 Porcello from the rotation should be an upgrade this season.

 

Disagree. He wasn't great, but he's better than what they are going to throw out there this year and he could eat innings.

[Slasher9]

only Red Sox pitchers get injured!

[bkzwhitestrican]

Disagree. He wasn't great, but he's better than what they are going to throw out there this year and he could eat innings.

 

True he does eat innings and is durable. Also he had the same number of quality starts as James Paxton (over only 3 more starts) which I found hard to believe. But the overall results were horrible because he had so many non-competitive games.

 

Porcello: 174.1 IP, 5.52 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 (down from 8.9 the prior year), 10 starts allowing 5+ ER

 

JA Happ, who I thought was pretty horrible last year, even performed better: 161.1 IP, 4.91 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 6 starts allowing 5+ ER. If it weren't for injuries I wouldn't even want him starting.

[mvp 78]

Velazquez as a starter last year: 6.95 ERA, 1.55 WHIP

Johnson as a starter last year: 5.09 EAR, 1.87 WHIP

 

The replacement options are worse than Porcello.

[jacksonianmarch]

If your replacement of an underperforming but durable pitcher is a worse performing less durable pitcher, then you’ve downgraded.

 

In terms of Happ, let’s look at his season. He was incredibly affected by the rocket ball. 1.9HR/9IP. That’s 0.71HR/9IP higher than his average. Also, his velo was down early and rebounded late. He battled biceps tendinitis as well, which makes me wonder if he was battling arm soreness all season. He was absolutely dominant in September and was flashing 93-94 mph heat, which was never his MO.

 

Here is what we know about Happ 2.0 (15-19). Durable guy, reasonable K rate, good walk rate, average HR rate up to last year. If he replicates 2019, we will likely be fine as he won’t be in the rotation beyond June 1 but he would be just good enough for our offense and pen to bail him out. If he replicated 2018, then we are in a good type of pickle. He’s pitching like a borderline ace, but we should want to offload his contract. Anywhere in between and we take it through June and deal him. The big question is, does he get worse than 2019. Certainly possible as he is old, so you wait and see.

 

The reason why the Paxton injury isn’t entirely destructive is that Paxton isn’t expected to be the ace. Out of ST last year, Paxton was expected to be the ace with Sevy down. Now, Sevy is healthy and we have Cole. Happ stays in the rotation. Montgomery, who has shown success in a season plus, has an inside track to a rotation spot. We can patch a fifth spot together with Cessa and Loaisiga if we must. We also have a healthy Michael King ready to help. Deivi Garcia got to AAA last year. Our most well rounded pitching prospect reached AA last year in Schmidt. We have the guys capable of making filling in. And one must remember that German and Paxton are expected back at the same time. German would have won 20 last year if he could be a decent human. Paxton was lights out second half last year.

[jacksonianmarch]

Paxton expected to start a throwing program within 7-10 days. He’s recovering far faster than expectations and the most recent article I read on him said he might only miss 6 weeks before being able to take the mound against big league hitting. It’ll take a couple weeks to build him up again.

 

His surgery was Feb 7. 6 weeks puts him on pace to start building up the last week of March. He’ll go on the IL, but likely the 10 day. He could be fully stretched out by mid April. Conservative return date per the updated article was May 1. Looks like an actual possibility

[Bellhorn04]

His surgery was Feb 7. 6 weeks puts him on pace to start building up the last week of March. He’ll go on the IL, but likely the 10 day. He could be fully stretched out by mid April. Conservative return date per the updated article was May 1. Looks like an actual possibility

 

What I'm reading is that an optimistic return date is May 1.

[Slasher9]

Paxton expected to start a throwing program within 7-10 days. He’s recovering far faster than expectations and the most recent article I read on him said he might only miss 6 weeks before being able to take the mound against big league hitting. It’ll take a couple weeks to build him up again.

 

His surgery was Feb 7. 6 weeks puts him on pace to start building up the last week of March. He’ll go on the IL, but likely the 10 day. He could be fully stretched out by mid April. Conservative return date per the updated article was May 1. Looks like an actual possibility

 

sounds like Cashman sent him down to the Miami Clinic?

[jacksonianmarch]

What I'm reading is that an optimistic return date is May 1.

 

I saw that too. Their timelines don’t match up, though. They said he could be fully recovered 6 weeks post op rather than 3 months. If he’s ready in six weeks and takes 2-3 weeks to ramp up, that’s April. Maybe the Yanks are planning to keep him away from the cold and stretching him out in Tampa. Who knows

[jacksonianmarch]

sounds like Cashman sent him down to the Miami Clinic?

 

It all depends on approach. Maybe they went minimally invasive? Maybe the damage was less than they thought? Who knows

[jacksonianmarch]

Shockingly, Paxton is hurt again

[Thunder]

So much for the best rotation ever. Damn shame

[dgalehouse]

Shockingly, Paxton is hurt again

 

In the words of that great American , Gomer Pyle , USMC ; " Surprise , surprise . "

[Bellhorn04]

So much for the best rotation ever. Damn shame

 

The Mariners' rotation?