Pay Mookie!

[Larry33]

Mookie's about to enter his age 27 season.

 

At age 27, Carl Yastrzemski won the Triple Crown. At age 27, Wade Boggs had 240 hits and won the first of four straight batting crowns. At age 27, David Ortiz joined the Red Sox to lead them to three World Series rings.

 

Here are the cumulative WARs produced for each from those age 27 seasons through the end of their careers: Yaz 71.5; Boggs 73.4; Ortiz 50.2 (just on offense). Betts averages 7 WAR per year, so is a good bet to join the the trio with 70 more WAR through the next decade.

 

Many agree Mookie is the Sox best homegrown player since Yaz. Can you even imagine the Yawkeys not paying Yaz or Boggs -- or Henry and Werner not keeping Ortiz in Boston?

 

Come to think of it sounds pretty ludicrous that the Red Sox's best player for the last couple of years by far is the one who's most likely to be gone by spring training.

 

Then again the Red Sox sold Babe Ruth the best baseball player of that era I think this will be as a big mistake as the previous one.

[mvp 78]

Mookie's going to blast off in California this year, isn't he? I can see a happy 10 WAR MVP season in the NL, with a special section in the bleachers tabbed "Mookiewood." While we're Will Mired in Fenway...

 

I can't see a possible scenario where the Dodgers have Mookie and the Sox have Wil Myers.

[Bellhorn04]

Dropping 10 places in the draft is negligible?

 

So you prefer Brady Aiken over Andrew Benintendi?

 

The drop of 10 spots only applies if you exceed the first threshold by more than 40 million.

 

So we were hit with that penalty for 2018, but not for 2019.

 

And as it stands we wouldn't be hit with it for 2020.

 

And the loss of International Pool money only applies if you sign a free agent who rejected a QO.

[Bellhorn04]

What's frustrating and confusing as a Red Sox fan is why Henry and Co. suddenly picked now to become inconsistent with spending compared to the last two decades and even last year.

 

That's not really the case.

 

Prior to 2018, the team always hovered around the tax threshold.

 

2018 was the first year they blew way past it.

 

And the new (2017-2021) rules brought in the accelerating tax rates and re-set structure.

[moonslav59]

I can't see a possible scenario where the Dodgers have Mookie and the Sox have Wil Myers.

 

Betts to LAD

Price to SD

Stripling to SD

Myers & Quantrill to BOS

Gonsolin & Cartaya to BOS

[TylerD]

Betts to LAD

Price to SD

Stripling to SD

Myers & Quantrill to BOS

Gonsolin & Cartaya to BOS

 

We better be getting some prospects for this.

[notin]

The drop of 10 spots only applies if you exceed the first threshold by more than 40 million.

 

So we were hit with that penalty for 2018, but not for 2019.

 

And as it stands we wouldn't be hit with it for 2020.

 

And the loss of International Pool money only applies if you sign a free agent who rejected a QO.

 

So what are the other third year penalties besides the 40% tax?

[moonslav59]

We better be getting some prospects for this.

 

Cartaya is a prospect and the other 3 are ML'ers.

 

I'd make this trade from Boston's point of view. We dump Price and save about $12M Lux a year on the Myers/Price exchange.

[moonslav59]

So what are the other third year penalties besides the 40% tax?

 

It's a 50% tax. The other penalties are for going $20M or $40M over.

[notin]

Cartaya is a prospect and the other 3 are ML'ers.

 

I'd make this trade from Boston's point of view. We dump Price and save about $12M Lux a year on the Myers/Price exchange.

 

I thought it was closer to $17mill. Price's AAV is $31mill; Myers' is $13.8mill...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That's not really the case.

 

Prior to 2018, the team always hovered around the tax threshold.

 

2018 was the first year they blew way past it.

 

And the new (2017-2021) rules brought in the accelerating tax rates and re-set structure.

 

I know, I meant inconsistent with not making sure that they take care of their best player. But I still have my doubts about whether Mookie is focused entirely on getting every last cent or if there are other personal factors involved in this inevitable breakup. Maybe agents and the front office do most of the negotiating, but employees that work for a company for nearly a decade develop various relationships with co-workers of different levels, and most likely confide in others about basics like the weather, traffic, media, etc. (I'm not trying to start rumors because we've all read them).

 

It's as good as an explanation as any to explain why he's gone -- because the brass knows they can't sign him and won't overpay to change his mind. I'm not sticking up for management, and will be listening intently for any negative spin doctors after Mookie's departure.

[notin]

I know, I meant inconsistent with not making sure that they take care of their best player. But I still have my doubts about whether Mookie is focused entirely on getting every last cent or if there are other personal factors involved in this inevitable breakup. Maybe agents and the front office do most of the negotiating, but employees that work for a company for nearly a decade develop various relationships with co-workers of different levels, and most likely confide in others about basics like the weather, traffic, media, etc. (I'm not trying to start rumors because we've all read them).

 

It's as good as an explanation as any to explain why he's gone -- because the brass knows they can't sign him and won't overpay to change his mind. I'm not sticking up for management, and will be listening intently for any negative spin doctors after Mookie's departure.

 

Jacoby Ellsbury and Jon Lester might disagree here...

[Bellhorn04]

So what are the other third year penalties besides the 40% tax?

 

50% tax on payroll over the limit, up to 20 million over.

62% tax on payroll 20-40 million over the limit.

95% tax on payroll more than 40 million over the limit.

[Bellhorn04]

I know, I meant inconsistent with not making sure that they take care of their best player. But I still have my doubts about whether Mookie is focused entirely on getting every last cent or if there are other personal factors involved in this inevitable breakup. Maybe agents and the front office do most of the negotiating, but employees that work for a company for nearly a decade develop various relationships with co-workers of different levels, and most likely confide in others about basics like the weather, traffic, media, etc. (I'm not trying to start rumors because we've all read them).

 

It's as good as an explanation as any to explain why he's gone -- because the brass knows they can't sign him and won't overpay to change his mind. I'm not sticking up for management, and will be listening intently for any negative spin doctors after Mookie's departure.

 

The thing is, the money Mookie is looking for is stratospheric.

 

The biggest contract the Red Sox have ever given out is Price's 217 million.

 

Mookie is looking for nearly double that.

 

We've gotten used to these insane numbers to the point we're kind of desensitized to them now, I think.

[notin]

I know, I meant inconsistent with not making sure that they take care of their best player. But I still have my doubts about whether Mookie is focused entirely on getting every last cent or if there are other personal factors involved in this inevitable breakup. Maybe agents and the front office do most of the negotiating, but employees that work for a company for nearly a decade develop various relationships with co-workers of different levels, and most likely confide in others about basics like the weather, traffic, media, etc. (I'm not trying to start rumors because we've all read them).

 

It's as good as an explanation as any to explain why he's gone -- because the brass knows they can't sign him and won't overpay to change his mind. I'm not sticking up for management, and will be listening intently for any negative spin doctors after Mookie's departure.

 

I actually havenot heard anything beyond he wants to test the market.

 

But if there are other factors that mean it's Boston he wants out of, then he really should be dealt now. Better off getting rid of a player a year too early as opposed to a year too late...

[Bellhorn04]

I actually havenot heard anything beyond he wants to test the market.

 

But if there are other factors that mean it's Boston he wants out of, then he really should be dealt now. Better off getting rid of a player a year too early as opposed to a year too late...

 

He's never said anything that wasn't good about playing in Boston.

 

The guy is just a cool customer, I think. He says his mother impressed on him the importance of not letting emotions play heavily in decisions.

[TylerD]

Cartaya is a prospect and the other 3 are ML'ers.

 

I'd make this trade from Boston's point of view. We dump Price and save about $12M Lux a year on the Myers/Price exchange.

 

Ya fair enough. Price hasnt lived up to the hype of his contract in my eyes either. Had one solid year basically but has been a huge disappointment

[Slasher9]

why dont we just take his word for it????

...MOOKIE QUOTES ON FREE AGENCY:

 

"I've definitely grown to love going up north in the cold and all those type of things,But it definitely doesn't mean I want to sell myself short of my value."

 

"Everybody values different things — what do you value, where you're going to be in five years."

 

"I definitely don't pay that much attention to it that far in the future. I kind of worry about what's going on now and just being treated fairly. I think that's just kind of the main thing."

 

"The biggest thing in my mind is just to be treated fairly."

 

"Just because you go to free agency doesn't mean you don't want to be somewhere. It's just a part of the business."

 

in response to the DD firing: “I love it here, but this is proof that this is a business.”

 

in response to Machado signing:

“I mean, I think we’re different players so obviously it’s going to be a different time, so I don’t want to speak on anybody else’s free agency.”

“It’s not just about me. The guys behind me, you want to do things for them. As players, we’re all kind of one. We play the game. You just have to kind of pass the baton to the next guy and think about their family.”

[moonslav59]

Ya fair enough. Price hasnt lived up to the hype of his contract in my eyes either. Had one solid year basically but has been a huge disappointment

 

Maybe someday we trade Myers and save more.

[Kimmi]

I'll say this, if it comes to Mookie being a free agent and we're in on it, as a fan I'll certainly be hoping we have the highest bid.

 

I will be in the group hoping that we do not have the highest bid.

[Kimmi]

Does Mookie become Pedroia part 2 on a long term deal?

 

Maybe not to the degree of where Pedroia is, but yes. Eventually, his contract will be an albatross.

[Kimmi]

It's the difference in mindset.

 

Some posters want maximum payroll flexibility.

 

some posters want maximum talent at the MLB level.

 

Having so much money tied up in Mookie might give you maximum talent at that position, but having payroll flexibility allows much better options for maximum talent on the overall roster.

 

Either way, the bottom line is that we need some cost-controlled players.

[Kimmi]

Esepcially pre-steroid.

 

But for real, Rice was averaging about 4.8 fWAR through age 26. Then plummeted down to 3 fWAR per year the remainder of his career. And it's not like it was just dragged down by the last couple seasons, which were bad by this metric. He started getting 2 and 3 fWAR seasons fairly regularly, and only topped 4 fWAR twice after age 26. He topped 5 fWAR three times between ages 24 and 26...

 

Peak age is typically about 27-28 years of age. Some things, like speed, actually start declining earlier than that, somewhere around 23 years of age. Some players will defy the aging curve. Most won't.

 

Most people here seem to think that Betts will. He might, but that's an awful lot of money and time to invest in something so risky.

[Kimmi]

What's frustrating and confusing as a Red Sox fan is why Henry and Co. suddenly picked now to become inconsistent with spending compared to the last two decades and even last year. Does anyone really think Dombro alone compelled billionaires to blow money on iffy pitchers when the Red Sox have an entire department who I'm sure prints out spreadsheets to show why Mookie Betts was such a better investment than injury-prone arms?

 

I'm also sure John Henry himself can figure out how to use baseball-ref or fangraphs. But I confess I did attend an ivy league school; it was a middle school, and after chasing down a foul ball into the woods I caught such a rash I need cortizone cream to dry out.

 

Henry panicked after the back to back last place finishes. He then went against pretty much everything that he believed in. Now, he's trying to reel it back in.

[Bellhorn04]

Peak age is typically about 27-28 years of age. Some things, like speed, actually start declining earlier than that, somewhere around 23 years of age. Some players will defy the aging curve. Most won't.

 

Most people here seem to think that Betts will. He might, but that's an awful lot of money and time to invest in something so risky.

 

The optimist's take is that he's a freak like Willie Mays, who was still excellent when he was 40.

[Kimmi]

The optimist's take is that he's a freak like Willie Mays, who was still excellent when he was 40.

 

And maybe he will be.

 

I'm not willing to take that chance.

[Bellhorn04]

And maybe he will be.

 

I'm not willing to take that chance.

 

Kimmi you are so pragmatic!

[notin]

The optimist's take is that he's a freak like Willie Mays, who was still excellent when he was 40.

 

But then if Betts has $350 million in the bank by age 35, his incentive to stay excellent through age 40 might not be the same...

Edited February 3, 2020 by notin

[mvp 78]

The optimist's take is that he's a freak like Willie Mays, who was still excellent when he was 40.

 

[mvp 78]

But then if Betts has $350 million in the bank by age 35, his incentive to stay excellent through age 40 might not be the same...

 

The second he signs the deal, he could decide to no longer care.