2020 Prospects

[OH FOY]

Dubon will be starting 2nd Baseman for the SF Giants this year.

[OH FOY]

Positional Rankings.

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/minor-league-farm-system-rankings-position-players-10-1/c-312714824

 

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/minor-league-farm-system-rankings-position-players-20-11/c-312696280

 

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/farm-system-rankings-position-players-30-21/c-312651662

Edited February 14, 2020 by OH FOY!

[OH FOY]

Good article on the Rays Minor League system. Bloom has a huge hand in this. Also rest of AL East Rookies.

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/2020-prospect-projections-american-league-east-rookies/c-312339950

[bkzwhitestrican]

BR released their annual farm rankings along with each team's top 10 prospects. Boston moved up to 26th (they were 30th last year I believe) with Jeter Downs being listed as their #1 prospect (ranked #68 in MLB). Casas is 2nd (#81 in MLB). If Verdugo was still eligible the Sox would probably be closer to 22nd-24th.

 

1. SS Jeter Downs

2. 3B Triston Casas

3. RHP Bryan Mata

4. 3B Bobby Dalbec

5. RHP Noah Song

6. OF Jarren Duran

7. OF Gilberto Jimenez

8. RHP Tanner Houck

9. RHP Thad Ward

10. LHP Jay Groome

[moonslav59]

Good article on the Rays Minor League system. Bloom has a huge hand in this. Also rest of AL East Rookies.

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/2020-prospect-projections-american-league-east-rookies/c-312339950

 

Thanks!

 

In Bloom I Trust

 

The Rays have seven Top-100 prospects, the most of all 30 organizations. As exciting as that may be for Tampa Bay fans, it's worth noting McKay and Honeywell are the only two of the seven to reach Triple-A.

[sk7326]

Keith Law's Top 100 ... https://theathletic.com/1627163/2020/02/24/keith-laws-top-100-prospects-for-2020/

 

70. Jeter Downs, 2B/SS, Boston Red Sox

 

Downs was part of the big trade that sent Alex Wood and Yasiel Puig to the Reds a year ago, just a year and a half after the Reds took him with the 32nd overall pick in the 2018 draft. He took a big leap forward with the Dodgers last year, leading the California League in doubles (with 33) and homers (with 19) at age 20, even though he was promoted to Double A for the last two weeks of the season — and hit five more homers there. He’s really not a shortstop, but should be above-average at second base or third. And the power he’s shown now, especially after the Dodgers helped him better understand how to manipulate the barrel to drive the ball when he gets the right pitch, will play anywhere. Even after an awful April where he hit .213/.276/.371, he showed no panic at the plate and kept improving his approach, making swing adjustments as the season went on. He’d probably be a star if he could handle shortstop as an everyday player, but even at second or third he should be an above-average regular for a long time.

 

90. Triston Casas, 1B, Boston Red Sox

 

Casas was Boston’s first-rounder in 2018 out of a Florida high school and spent 2019 in Low A, where he hit .256/.350/.480 at age 19, good for fifth in all of Low A in slugging percentage. Casas has a solid swing where he can get to real power when he rotates his hips, but he can get locked up on pitches up the zone. He has a real two-strike approach, similar to Juan Soto’s, where he widens his stance substantially and chokes up on the bat to go for contact, which also reduces his power. He has a very good eye for his age, and his approach gets him into a lot of counts where he can hit for power, giving reason to think he’ll get to 30-plus homers in time. He started the season by trying to hit from an extreme crouch, resulting in a .208/.284/.364 line in April, but went on a tear after reverting to his usual stance, showing the power and patience required to profile as at least an above-average regular at first base.

 

From the just missed group:

 

Noah Song, RHP, Boston Red Sox

 

Song was Boston’s fourth-round pick in 2019 out of the Naval Academy, but broke out in a big way after signing, sitting 95-96 with a better breaking ball and a new changeup that was already flashing plus. He was working in shorter stints, but the way the stuff ticked up, along with his history of strike-throwing, have jumped him to the front of the pack among Red Sox pitching prospects, with mid-rotation upside. As of this writing, he’s not going to pitch again until 2022 as he completes his two-year obligation to the U.S. Navy.

[sk7326]

The org report https://theathletic.com/1609934/2020/02/26/keith-laws-guide-to-top-red-sox-prospects/

 

1. Jeter Downs, IF (#70 overall)

 

2. Triston Casas, 1B (#90 overall)

 

3. Noah Song, RHP (just missed top 100)

 

4. Jason Groome, LHP

 

Groome, their first-rounder from 2016, returned to action after missing nearly two years due to Tommy John surgery, back up to 95 mph but without the plus-plus curveball he’d shown before the operation. If that returns with more time, he’ll be back on track to be an above-average starter.

 

5. Jarren Duran, OF

 

Duran was Boston’s big breakout prospect for 2019, a seventh–rounder and an 80 runner who should end up an above-average centerfielder given more reps there. He’s a slap hitter now, with power he’s not going to reach with his current swing and setup; he crushed High A before a mid-year promotion to Double A, where he struggled at first but gradually started making more contact. He has solid fourth outfielder potential right now, but to be a regular he either has to get to more power or cut his strikeouts.

 

6. Thad Ward, RHP

 

Ward was their fifth-rounder in the same draft as Duran, 2018, and dominated High A as well before moving to Double A and continuing to miss bats. He’s 92-96 with sink and an out pitch in his slider, along with deception in the delivery.

7. Bobby Dalbec, 3B

 

Dalbec might end up a regular thanks to his absurd power and defense at third, where he’ll show a 55 glove and at least a 70 arm. There’s always going to be swing and miss here, maybe too much for him to be an everyday guy, but he deserves a lot of credit for cutting his strikeout rate as much as he has, to the point where we can even think of him as a regular.

 

8. Gilberto Jimenez, OF

 

Jimenez is an 80 runner with a high-contact approach that doesn’t generate any power; there should be some power in there and if he learns to stay back and drive the ball some more. He could end up a regular or better thanks to the speed and his defense in center.

 

9. Bryan Mata, RHP

 

Mata has premium stuff, up to 98, with a very tough delivery from a stiff landing to a late, slinging arm swing from a low slot. Left-handed hitters already get to him and I don’t think he can repeat that arm action enough for starter-level command.

 

10. Tanner Houck, RHP

 

Houck is a dominant reliever in the making with two pitches and an arm slot that is tough on right-handers. His changeup hasn’t come, and I don’t think he can turn a lineup over three times.

 

11. Matthew Lugo, SS

 

Boston’s second pick last year, taken late in the second round, Lugo is a toolsy shortstop from Puerto Rico who might have gone higher had he not scuffled in the high-profile Excellence Games tournament a month before the draft. He has a good line-drive swing for hard contact across the middle of the field, above-average speed, and good hands to stay at short.

 

12. Chris Murphy, LHP

 

Murphy has been up to 95, with an above-average curveball and feel for a changeup, but scouts felt he was mishandled at the University of San Diego, so he slipped to the sixth round in 2019. He took to the change in coaching quite well, cutting his walk rate from 15 percent in college to just over 5 percent in the New York-Penn League. He has fourth starter potential if he can keep this going.

 

13. CJ Chatham, SS

 

Chatham is a nice utility player who can handle shortstop and might hit for an empty .300 average in a good season, without power or OBP.

 

14. Cam Cannon, 2B

 

Their first pick last year, also in the second round, Cannon is a polished bat from the University of Arizona who swung and missed more last summer than expected, partly because the Sox are trying to work with him to stop loading so much over his back leg. He’s going to work at second base, which is his best chance for a skill position.

 

15. Andrew Politi, RHP

 

The Sox found the perfect way to help Politi, their 15th-round pick from 2018; his stuff took a jump and pitched better in longer outings, so they moved him to the rotation, where he was close to unhittable. He’s at 94-96 mph with an above-average breaking ball, good deception in the delivery, and better control when he starts. He’ll need a better third pitch to end up in the rotation.

 

16. Ryan Zeferjahn, RHP

 

Zeferjahn has an elite fastball but lacks average command or a quality second pitch, so he’ll probably move to the bullpen in short order.

 

17. Nick Decker, OF

 

Decker played in just two games in his first summer, so 2019 was really his debut, and he was just OK for short-season Lowell at age 19, showing power and a little patience but striking out in 30 percent of his plate appearances. Boston took him out of a New Jersey private school, so he’s behind the curve (pun intended) when it comes to picking up spin.

 

18. Chih-Jung Liu, RHP

 

Liu signed for $750,000 this offseason, has hit 100 mph for scouts and topped out at 98 in a tournament this past fall. He took two years off from pitching to recover from heavy use when he was younger, but the time off helped. He gets on top of the ball well and has a promising circle-change and a show-me curveball.

 

19. Conor Wong, C/IF

 

A utility man with a different profile, Wong is capable of catching on a semi-regular basis and has experience at second and third. He strikes out too much to be a regular even behind the plate but has value in his flexibility and power.

 

20. Brayan Bello, RHP

 

Bello gets guys out with average stuff, working in the low 90s with a fringy breaking ball and change. He struck out a man an inning in Low A but will be hard-pressed to repeat that at higher levels without better stuff.

 

Other notables

 

They took infielder Jonathan Arauz in the Rule 5 draft; he’s a dynamic player with an idea at the plate and bat speed, but his production has lagged because he’s always been young for his levels and he’s missed time due to a suspension for a positive test for a banned stimulant. … Right-hander Alex Scherff had a disappointing year overall despite some dominant outings; he’s up to 98, but inconsistent within starts and from game to game, and still lacks an average third pitch to go with his fastball and changeup. … Their third-round pick from 2018, Durbin Feltman, was supposed to be a quick-to-the-majors college reliever, but we all know how often that works out, right? Feltman walked 31 in 51-1/3 innings in Double-A and regressed as the season went on. He can show two above-average to plus pitches but has trouble getting lefties out.

 

Sleeper

 

I liked their 2019 draft quite a bit; Lugo has the best upside of their lower-tier prospects, while Murphy looks like he might have been a steal in the sixth round. I’d give Lugo the best chance to turn into a top 100 prospect a year from now.

[mvp 78]

Weird that he's so down on Mata. Speier and SoxProspects love that guy.

 

Also, I'm not sure I've ever heard Andrew (AJ) Politi's name before. He's only ranked 52 on SoxProspects. He was pretty good after mid June.

[mvp 78]

6/15/19 - end of season for Politi:

WHIP 0.86

ERA 1.48

K/9 11.62

BB/9 3.14

[sk7326]

6/15/19 - end of season for Politi:

WHIP 0.86

ERA 1.48

K/9 11.62

BB/9 3.14

 

Law tends to ding a lot if he doesn't see starting pitcher upside. If Mata's arm slot is creating a Justin Masterson like split problem, then he can only be a reliever, though possibly a good one.

 

His intro/overall impression of SOX system

 

Years of drafting at the end of the first round, or after the first round entirely, have taken a toll on the Red Sox system, although they just traded for their new No. 1 prospect and have found several legitimate prospects beyond the third round in the last few drafts, helping bulk up a system that would otherwise be thin.

 

Given the handicap of draft position, Dombrowski's team actually did a good job there.

[Bellhorn04]

Given the handicap of draft position, Dombrowski's team actually did a good job there.

 

Who woulda thunk it?

[moonslav59]

Who woulda thunk it?

 

We were also penalized one year for IFA signings.

 

I have said all along, within the context of our draft choices and penalties, DD did well with his picks.

 

However, our farm still sucked after he left.

[mvp 78]

Honestly, the scouting department has been pretty good for a while.

[mvp 78]

@SPChrisHatfield

.

@BaseballAmerica

ranked the #RedSox system 20th. That feels right, although saying anything beyond that would be outside my expertise.

[mvp 78]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-red-sox-prospect-jarren-duran-is-a-speedy-intense-anomaly/

 

Duran write up

[moonslav59]

@SPChrisHatfield

.

@BaseballAmerica

ranked the #RedSox system 20th. That feels right, although saying anything beyond that would be outside my expertise.

 

I wonder what it would have been without Downs & Wong.

[mvp 78]

I wonder what it would have been without Downs & Wong.

 

21st

[moonslav59]

21st

 

I'm thinking lower. Downs is our #1 or 2 and Wong is #12-20th.

[sk7326]

I'm thinking lower. Downs is our #1 or 2 and Wong is #12-20th.

 

Downs would have had more impact on it than Wong - Downs seems to have a pretty solid MLB level floor.

 

I could see a significant variation on the Red Sox system too - a lot of the interesting prospects are further away from the bigs, and while Dombrowski and company did a good job putting a lot of interesting arms in the organization - most of the arms come with some significant reliever risk. Like Bryan Mata is the 3rd best prospect in the Sox org if you really think he can be a starter. But if you are bearish on that, it's going to knock him down a few pegs.

 

Dalbec is a swing prospect too - he worked his butt off last year on making more contact. He's never going to be 2008 Dustin Pedroia or anything, but he has to be able to make enough contact to get to his ridiculous power. Combine that with the pretty good odds of him staying at 3B, and there is something there. Of course he is running out of time as a "young" player ...

[mvp 78]

I'm thinking lower. Downs is our #1 or 2 and Wong is #12-20th.

 

22nd

[sk7326]

Law system rankings ... https://theathletic.com/1641139/2020/03/02/keith-laws-farm-system-rankings-for-all-30-mlb-teams/

 

1. Tampa Bay Rays

 

The Rays need a strong farm system to stay competitive, given their revenue constraints and unwillingness to spend big on their major-league payroll, but they have enough depth in their system right now that they can trade from it to keep the big-league team competitive. Not only do they have the top prospect in the game, but they also have substantial pitching depth — even after trading one of their top pitching prospects — and have benefited from a recent change in draft philosophy as well as increasingly productive classes of international free agents. They’ve also done well in stocking the system with middle-infield prospects, many of whom will eventually move to other positions but at least start out with the potential to stay up the middle. The only place they’re really weak at the moment is behind the plate. The Rays may not know where they’ll be playing for the next few years, but they should be competitive for some time to come.

 

2. Braves

 

The pipeline in Atlanta continues, even though the team has been effectively out of the international prospect market for two years now. That’s thanks to the last fruits of the previous regime’s efforts and several very productive drafts in the time since, including a 2019 draft class that already looks like it’s yielding positive results. They have depth in pitching, even with several graduations of top pitching prospects the past two years, and behind the plate, which is always valuable. They are light in the middle infield, although Braden Shewmake’s emergence as a likely long-term shortstop is a very promising development.

 

3. Dodgers

 

The Dodgers’ chain of elite prospects remains unbroken, to the point where perhaps we should no longer be surprised. Corey Seager was followed by Cody Bellinger, who is now followed by Gavin Lux. Julio Urías was followed by Walker Buehler, who was followed by Dustin May, who may now be followed by Josiah Gray. They’ve drafted well, they’ve fared exceptionally well internationally, and they’ve even added some prospects in trades while still contending, a neat trick few teams pull off more than once. They even have enough catching depth to put their third-best catching prospect, Keibert Ruiz, on the trade block. The Dodgers get credit for the money they spend but not enough for the players they develop on their own.

 

4. Diamondbacks

 

The Diamondbacks traded two major-league stars for a total of seven prospects, but those deals have little to do with their ranking here, with two already graduated and only one of the other five in the team’s top 10. It’s about everything else: very productive drafts, goosed by some extra picks and a little good fortune (e.g., the No. 4 player on my 2019 board, Corbin Carroll, getting to them at pick 16), and some strong early returns on international classes, including a payoff on an early, aggressive effort in the Bahamas. They’re even here despite trading their No. 1 prospect at the time, Jazz Chisholm, to Miami in July.

 

6. Yankees

 

The Yankees have clearly figured out some things on the development side, especially finding ways to help pitchers throw harder or throw higher-quality pitches (like boosting spin rates), and have also stayed active on the international side. Their Latin American contingent helmed one of the most lauded groups of short-season prospects I found during the process of assembling these rankings, with teams already asking for some of their GCL kids in trade talks. They’ve also got pitching coming, headlined by a risky first-round pick who’s worked out extremely well so far in Clarke Schmidt.

 

25. Boston Red Sox

 

Trades, promotions, and low draft picks have caught up with the Red Sox, whose major-league need for pitching won’t be satisfied by the fruits of the farm any time soon. Their top two pitching prospects have big questions — one is just coming back from Tommy John, the other may have to go spend a few years on a submarine — and beyond them it’s back-end starters or, more often, starters who project as relievers due to deliveries or lack of a third pitch.

 

27. Houston Astros

 

It’s funny, but when you get rid of all of your amateur scouts, your drafts get a whole lot worse. If it weren’t for the work of the international scouting department, helmed by Oz Ocampo (now with Pittsburgh), this would absolutely be the bottom system in the majors.

 

29. Washington Nationals

 

You don’t care, right, Nats fans? You got a ring! That’s what the farm is for, and Mike Rizzo and company worked the heck out of their system to get to that World Series. They’ve traded a lot of prospects, two of whom look like they’ll hurt (Lucas Giolito and Jesús Luzardo), but they have a world championship to show for it. That’s good, because it gets thin very quickly here, most notably on the pitching front.

30. Milwaukee Brewers

 

The Brewers have traded or promoted so much talent the past few years that a couple of misses on early draft picks are much more noticeable; they were the only team that came close to failing to place a prospect on my top 100 this year, and they were the hardest team to write up with my self-imposed minimum of 20 prospects per team, saved largely by some high-upside players signed in the past three years out of Latin America. This was a choice, to some extent — the major-league team came within one win of a World Series and continues to contend, at the cost of the long-term value of the farm system.

Edited March 2, 2020 by sk7326

[mvp 78]

@SoxProspects

Per an organization source, the following players retired this offseason:

RHP Austin Maddox

IF Daniel Bakst (current SP no. 58 prospect)

LHP Gregorio Reyes

OF Luke Tendler

 

In addition, the club released C/1B Kleiber Rodriguez

 

Maddox was very effective in limited MLB time in 2017, but battled injuries the last two seasons.

 

Bakst was a sleeper pick from the 2019 draft class. Former Team USA in HS, played at Stanford but sat out junior yr. He put up good numbers in GCL last year.

[mvp 78]

Nice story on Houck giving back to his community. I was hopeful that he'd have a strong spring, but his velo was way down in his last start.

 

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2020/03/boston-red-sox-pitching-prospect-tanner-houck-building-legacy-in-hometown-with-adoption-charity-i-wanted-to-give-back-to-something-bigger-than-myself.html

[notin]

@SoxProspects

Per an organization source, the following players retired this offseason:

RHP Austin Maddox

IF Daniel Bakst (current SP no. 58 prospect)

LHP Gregorio Reyes

OF Luke Tendler

 

In addition, the club released C/1B Kleiber Rodriguez

 

Maddox was very effective in limited MLB time in 2017, but battled injuries the last two seasons.

 

Bakst was a sleeper pick from the 2019 draft class. Former Team USA in HS, played at Stanford but sat out junior yr. He put up good numbers in GCL last year.

 

So why did Bakst retire?

[mvp 78]

So why did Bakst retire?

 

IDK, couldn’t find it anywhere. He did sit out 2018 due to lack of interest.

[moonslav59]

The Yankees have clearly figured out some things on the development side...

 

Yes, HGH and more...

[mvp 78]

@SoxProspects

Red Sox announce they received C Johnny Pereda from the Cubs to complete the Travis Lakins trade. Spent last year in AA. Will be 24 this season

[mvp 78]

@SPChrisHatfield

For what it's worth, I'm skeptical that Pereda's 2019 minor league gold glove,while cool, means much. My guess is it was based mostly on his fielding percentage (which was quite high at .996) and caught stealing percentage (33%), with some consideration of age for level.

[mvp 78]

MLB going with a 5 round draft this year. Losing that 2nd rounder sucks really hard.

[Kimmi]

MLB going with a 5 round draft this year. Losing that 2nd rounder sucks really hard.

 

I was just reading about that. That is really a very drastic cut from the typical 40 rounds. I can see cutting back, but cutting down to 5 rounds seems a bit much. There are so many players who are going to be left hanging, with nowhere to play. I feel bad for them. Many potentially very good players will slip through the cracks.

 

And yes, it does magnify the Red Sox' loss of their 2nd rounder.