Mookie downgrade thread

[a700hitter]

So then they have to sell the salary dump to a fanbase that pays through the nose for tickets. Yikes.

 

I think that's why it's still 50/50 they just ride with Mookie for one more year.

I put the odds at 3 to 1 that Mookie gets traded for 2020. Edited January 28, 2020 by a700hitter
Stated the odds wrong

[moonslav59]

Those Sox firesales in 2012 and 2014 came during last-place years. Yes, dumping players helped lead to doormat finishes -- but no one wants that... and not many expect Boston to have a losing record in '20. Even with all the injuries in '19, the Red Sox still had a winning team; it was just a major disappointment to most because of expectations after '18.

 

Just because the Orioles suck so much, we can't be a last place team doesn't mean the situations are not similar.

 

If we are 10 back in July, we will at least explore trading several players that will be FAs or opt out after 2021 and maybe even 2022.

[moonslav59]

They should then trade Myers in for Price, an asset they could use. A veteran presence on that pitching staff would be helpful.

 

This deal make so much sense, I'm not sure why it hasn't happened. Maybe SD has no faith at all in Price.

 

I'd even add Workman to the deal, if they gave us a prospect not worth Workman's value- like Hunt.

[harmony]

Oh, I perfectly understand why the Padres want us to take Myers...I'm just saying you don't give them that salary relief for free. Whatever you feel would be a fair return for one year of Mookie, once you add in Myers with any significant portion of his salary, the cost goes up.

 

By all accounts, the Padres are highly motivated to get out from under that contract...to not use that to our advantage in any negotiation with them would be malpractice.

Given luxury tax implications, aren't the Red Sox even more motivated to get out from under the contracts of David Price, Nathan Eovaldi and Jackie Bradley Jr.? Or even Mookie Betts?

 

Potential trade partners will use those factors to their advantage in negotiations.

[Slasher9]

Given luxury tax implications, aren't the Red Sox even more motivated to get out from under the contracts of David Price, Nathan Eovaldi and Jackie Bradley Jr.? Or even Mookie Betts?

 

Potential trade partners will use those factors to their advantage in negotiations.

 

Thanks JH!

[Bellhorn04]

Given luxury tax implications, aren't the Red Sox even more motivated to get out from under the contracts of David Price, Nathan Eovaldi and Jackie Bradley Jr.? Or even Mookie Betts?

 

Potential trade partners will use those factors to their advantage in negotiations.

 

Not if Bloom doesn't let them.

[mvp 78]

This deal make so much sense, I'm not sure why it hasn't happened. Maybe SD has no faith at all in Price.

 

I'd even add Workman to the deal, if they gave us a prospect not worth Workman's value- like Hunt.

 

I think SD is under much more of a payroll constraint than we understand.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

So then they have to sell the salary dump to a fanbase that pays through the nose for tickets. Yikes.

 

I just can't see this as feasible -- but can envision open fan revolt, as in all those revolted by such a scenario.

 

And it won't just be noise.... if the Red Sox do a dump and get back crap (and these aren't puns), half the disgusted fans will tune out NESN as soon as the record sucks, which will only take about a month or so in.

[Bellhorn04]

If the Red Sox sole purpose this offseason was to get under 208 million, they could have traded Mookie for a couple of middling prospects and been done with it.

[mvp 78]

If the Red Sox sole purpose this offseason was to get under 208 million, they could have traded Mookie for a couple of middling prospects and been done with it.

 

Yeah, they'd have to do that since THEY HAVE NO LEVERAGE IN TRADE NEGOTIATIONS BECAUSE THEY WANT TO CUT SALARY TO GET UNDER THE LUX TAX.

 

Why even wait for a good trade?!?!?!?!?!?

[Jack Flap]

They should then trade Myers in for Price, an asset they could use. A veteran presence on that pitching staff would be helpful.

 

Now, Price for Myers is a swap I do think I'd make...there's been little talk of the Padres being interested in Price (as part of a Betts deal or otherwise), though.

 

Given luxury tax implications, aren't the Red Sox even more motivated to get out from under the contracts of David Price, Nathan Eovaldi and Jackie Bradley Jr.? Or even Mookie Betts?

 

That may be the case, but as their "need" to get under the CBT line is entirely self-imposed, and their current payroll situation self-inflicted, I have little sympathy for them and refuse to accept it as an excuse to make bad baseball trades.

[mvp 78]

That may be the case, but as their "need" to get under the CBT line is entirely self-imposed, and their current payroll situation self-inflicted, I have little sympathy for them and refuse to accept it as an excuse to make bad baseball trades.

 

I agree, but it's the reality we live in. That's why we're all discussing what a return for Mookie should be.

[Jack Flap]

I agree, but it's the reality we live in. That's why we're all discussing what a return for Mookie should be.

 

I get it...I still reserve my right to bitch about it when it happens, though.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Just because the Orioles suck so much, we can't be a last place team doesn't mean the situations are not similar.

 

If we are 10 back in July, we will at least explore trading several players that will be FAs or opt out after 2021 and maybe even 2022.

 

I get that deadline buyers-and-sellers are an annual part of the game these days, but I don't believe the Red Sox will ever clean house of brand favorites when this regime is on record of committing to winning every year. Good young players are the basis of sustaining a contender and guys fans can identify with and root for, a combination of what every franchise is always seeking.

[mvp 78]

I get it...I still reserve my right to bitch about it when it happens, though.

 

This is the way.

[moonslav59]

I think SD is under much more of a payroll constraint than we understand.

 

The actual money owed to Myers is not far from Price's deal. He's owed $68.5M over the next 3 years counting bonuses.

 

If you subtract that from Price's $96M, it's $37.5M or about $12M a year more for Price.

 

We can pay down some of that, as I suggested, and the benefit to us is that the LUX cost is just $13.8M a year. Assume we pay $3M a year.

 

SD pays $9M a year for Price.

 

We save $14M a year on the tax budget.

[moonslav59]

I get that deadline buyers-and-sellers are an annual part of the game these days, but I don't believe the Red Sox will ever clean house of brand favorites when this regime is on record of committing to winning every year. Good young players are the basis of sustaining a contender and guys fans can identify with and root for, a combination of what every franchise is always seeking.

 

Look again at my proposed "fire sale."

 

JBJ, Price, Eovaldi and Workman are not "brand favorites."

 

We are talking about Betts and JD. Both will be FAs after this year. Are fans that dumb, they can't see the benefit of trading them before we lose them anyways?

 

Plus, we can bring both back next winter.

[Bellhorn04]

JD is only a FA after this year if he opts out, of course. That's not a given. And it would impact the interest of other teams.

[moonslav59]

JD is only a FA after this year if he opts out, of course. That's not a given. And it would impact the interest of other teams.

 

IMO, the only way he doesn't opt out is if he gets hurt or decline sharply. If that happens, we may have wished we traded him before July.

[Bellhorn04]

IMO, the only way he doesn't opt out is if he gets hurt or decline sharply. If that happens, we may have wished we traded him before July.

 

I don't think it would necessarily require a sharp decline for him to stay put. Even a modest decline might do it.

 

He'll be 33, and if he doesn't opt out he'll be guaranteed 2 years and 38.75 million. That's really not bad for an aging DH.

[mvp 78]

IMO, the only way he doesn't opt out is if he gets hurt or decline sharply. If that happens, we may have wished we traded him before July.

 

IMO, he will never opt out. The market isn't there to pay a DH that much money. There is too great of a risk that he goes to FA and gets less $$$.

[Slasher9]

IMO, he will never opt out. The market isn't there to pay a DH that much money. There is too great of a risk that he goes to FA and gets less $$$.

 

^^^

[moonslav59]

IMO, he will never opt out. The market isn't there to pay a DH that much money. There is too great of a risk that he goes to FA and gets less $$$.

 

Maybe. Apparently he's still worth +6 on the trade value site, so they see him as worth more than he's owed.

[moonslav59]

IMO, he will never opt out. The market isn't there to pay a DH that much money. There is too great of a risk that he goes to FA and gets less $$$.

 

If he has the year he needs to have for us to win it all, like many here think we should shoot for, he'll opt out.

[mvp 78]

^^^

 

Thank you for your service.

[mvp 78]

Maybe. Apparently he's still worth +6 on the trade value site, so they see him as worth more than he's owed.

 

This is hardly an engaging argument.

[mvp 78]

If he has the year he needs to have for us to win it all, like many here think we should shoot for, he'll opt out.

 

Even if he has a monster year, his age and lack of position will prevent him from opting out.

 

See: Edwin Encarnacion who has been with 4 teams in the 4 years since he turned 33 (the age JD will be in 2021).

[Bellhorn04]

If he has the year he needs to have for us to win it all, like many here think we should shoot for, he'll opt out.

 

This is both convoluted and questionable.

[notin]

Even if he has a monster year, his age and lack of position will prevent him from opting out.

 

See: Edwin Encarnacion who has been with 4 teams in the 4 years since he turned 33 (the age JD will be in 2021).

 

He was traded twice on the contract Cleveland signed in to...

[mvp 78]

He was traded twice on the contract Cleveland signed in to...

 

Because it's such a bad contract that nobody wants to hold onto him long term. Immediate regret.

 

That's why it'll be hard to move JD.