Mookie and Andrew Mcutchen .....

[Bellhorn04]

Chipper Jones did not have a season below 2.3 bWAR in his whole career! And a bWAR of 2.8 at age 40. That's pretty amazing.

[Kimmi]

There are a lot of players who performed very well after age 30 and even 32 or 33, and I'm not talking about the steroid group.

 

Dewey Evans is one- he actually did better as he aged, and he barely lost anything on defense.

 

Here's a list of the best players age 30-37 just from 2000 to 2019 (2500+ PAs)- notice how many near the top were little guys:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=2500&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2000&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=30,37&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate=

 

WAR from age 30-37

42.4 Edmonds

41.0 Beltre

38.2 C Jones

37.0 I Suzuki

35.9 B Giles

34.5 ARod

33.5 Jeter

32.0 Zobrist

31.1 J Giambi

31.0 Thome

30.1 Kent

20 players from 24.1 to 29.9, including Cano, J Damon & M Cameron

19 players from 20.0 to 24.0, including Kinsler & J Valentin

(P Polanco & B Gardner almost made the list.)

 

Betts has better numbers than most of these guys at age 27. Sure,many players didn't even last to age 37, but how many players, with numbers like Betts, went on to be total busts after age 30? I'm sure there are many, like Pujols, but there are many that did not, too.

 

 

Of course there are exceptions. Mookie may very well be one of them. Then again, he may not be. I'm not willing to take that risk.

[Kimmi]

Chipper's on the list, Kimmi.

 

:)

[jacksonianmarch]

Betts is going to decline earlier than most even if his bat continues to be elite. A lot of Betts WAR is tied to his base running and defense. Even if he takes pristine care of himself, he’s gonna lose a step which will harm his defense as well as his SB and 1st to 3rd totals. If you’re going to extend him very long term, you need to evaluate him as a long term bat first corner OFer rather than the speedy, quick twitch guy who can play a good CF and an elite RF while stealing 20+ based. To be totally honest, small guys don’t age well and I wonder if Bloom is taking that into account.

[Bellhorn04]

Betts is going to decline earlier than most even if his bat continues to be elite. A lot of Betts WAR is tied to his base running and defense. Even if he takes pristine care of himself, he’s gonna lose a step which will harm his defense as well as his SB and 1st to 3rd totals. If you’re going to extend him very long term, you need to evaluate him as a long term bat first corner OFer rather than the speedy, quick twitch guy who can play a good CF and an elite RF while stealing 20+ based. To be totally honest, small guys don’t age well and I wonder if Bloom is taking that into account.

 

Mookie Betts is not a 'small guy'. He's an insanely good all-around athlete. He bowls 300 games. He throws 305-foot strikes from right field.

[moonslav59]

Some might argue it's better to risk a burdensome contract than to risk having to watch the next best thing to Willie Mays star for another team for 7-8 years.

 

After all, we always manage to survive the burdensome contracts, and even win titles while carrying them.

 

This is very true.

 

Plus, people talk of how horrible it is to have such a large percentage of your budget tied to one or two (or 3,4,5) players. Let's look back at our championship seasons:

 

2004: $130M 40 man budget

22.5 Manny

17.5 Pedro

12.0 Schilling

11.5 Nomar

Top 2: 31% (Theo's first ring)

Top 4: 48.9%

 

2007: $155M

17.0 Manny

14.0 JD Drew

13.3 Ortiz

13.0 Schilling

11.0 VTek

9.0 Lowell

8.2 Lugo

Top 2: 20% (Theo's 2nd ring)

Top 5: 44%

 

2013: $176M

16.0 Lackey

14.5 Ortiz

13.3 Dempster

13.0 Vic

11.6 Lester

10.2 Pedey

9.5 Drew

9.0 Ellsbury

Top 2: 17.3% (Ben's year)

Top 5: 38.9%

 

2018: $239M

30.0 Price

23.8 JD

22.8 HRam

21.1Porcello

16.1 Pedey

13.0 Kimbrel

12.5 Sale

10.5 Betts

Top 2: 22.9% (DD's year)

Top 4: 41%

 

Hypothetical 2021: $240M

33.0 Betts

30.0 Price (if not traded)

20.0 Bogey

19.4 JD (if not opted out)

17.0 Eovaldi (if not traded)

12.1 Pedey (last year)

Top 2: 26% (Less than Theo's first ring year and not that far from others, and this assumes we don't trade Price by then.)

Top 4 (assuming JD opts out): 42% (lower than 2004 & close to other years.)

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Mookie Betts is not a 'small guy'. He's an insanely good all-around athlete. He bowls 300 games. He throws 305-foot strikes from right field.

 

He also hits for power.

 

But, all that matters is speed ages poorly.

[cp176]

You have to factor in what he does with the money saved by trading Betts. That, in a sense, is part of the trade.

 

I think most Sox fans would understand that- just like they did when we traded AGon, although that involved dumping the much fan-hated CC.

 

We won a ring in 2013, clearly as a result of the money saved on that deal and how Ben spent it wisely.

 

Sure, we'll likely lose some fans by trading Betts, but if we present the trade in the right way, by announcing we will go all out to re-sign him in 2021, then maybe it won't have the negative impact many seem to think it might have.

 

Plus, if Bloom spends Betts's money wisely, maybe we'll end up going farther than many fans expect, and the "lost" fans will come back quickly.

 

As you know, I'm all for bringing Betts back, and it seems like I'm in a minority on this site, so I guess that means people are okay with losing fans from 2021-2030 but not 2020 alone.

 

I think that we and hopefully others know how important a player like Betts is to any franchise. In losing him, we really don't have much to compare with. He vey well might be that good. I wish that he appeared a little more positive about continuing his red Sox relationship, but who can blame him for attempting to get what he can. Once again, I think that losing this guy without a major effort to keep him, will likely cost the franchise greatly in many ways. Lifelong fans likely will hang around but not everyone is a lifelong fan. I think that trading him for anything on the wrong side of damn good right now, will be very painful. Restocking the farm isn't the end all be all for many people.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think that all who post here would like to see Bloom succeed. Much of what he does and has done may prove to be just what we need in Boston but the suggestion that basically giving away a player like Mookie Betts for unproven minor leaguers or any young potentially good major leaguers to save money for the franchise wouldn't come with a fan loss, in my opinion is not accurate. Yes long time fans and arm chair GM's who might agree with much of what Bloom advocates will probably hang in there but if the trade did not bring in some exceptional talent right now, a lot of money might appear to be saved for ownership but I think that in the long run it could be quite costly. i might be wrong but I believe that the majority of fans are not data driven 24 hour a day followers of the ups and downs of the franchise. They are simply fans who love their team. In coming to Boston, Bloom is entering the real arena. Trading away a generational talent like Betts may seem like the right thing to do in order to rebuild what many of you think is a stagnant minor league system, but it could come at a great cost. "Joe average" wants to see Mookie Betts stay in Boston. We like our stars.

 

This is a smart, thoughtful post. The Red Sox have to consider the silent majority... that's "silent" as in fans who don't type daily during the offseason on forums like us -- but people who regularly watch games on TV, listen on radio, attend games with families, do the wave, sing to Neil Diamond, and couldn't tell you who Triston Casas is.

 

As for Betts and the caution that small guys don't age well: if I were a GM investing in a ballplayer long term, I'd much rather take the chance on a five-tool talent than a "big guy" who's game relies on big muscles. Look at how well the Pujols and Cabrera contracts have aged... not very.

[notin]

This is a smart, thoughtful post. The Red Sox have to consider the silent majority... that's "silent" as in fans who don't type daily during the offseason on forums like us -- but people who regularly watch games on TV, listen on radio, attend games with families, do the wave, sing to Neil Diamond, and couldn't tell you who Triston Casas is.

 

As for Betts and the caution that small guys don't age well: if I were a GM investing in a ballplayer long term, I'd much rather take the chance on a five-tool talent than a "big guy" who's game relies on big muscles. Look at how well the Pujols and Cabrera contracts have aged... not very.

 

While moving Betts could be unpopular with the casual everyday he gets his sports news from Bob Lobel (is he still working?), that doesn’t change the fact that fans want one thing more than star players - winners. When defending Dombrowski’s depletion of the farm, not one single fan said “But he got star players!!” No one ever justified the Nomar trade by saying “Orlando Cabrera is a bigger star, and most definitely not a slimy little selfish weasel about to disembark on a trail of burned bridges around MLB.”

 

The Sox were an 84!win team last year. No one was happy. Bring back the same team, maybe an 84 win team again. They had Betts, too. This team is capable of mediocrity with him or without him. Does keeping Betts and winning 84 games next year really retain fans? Especially if they reset the taxes and can’t add anyone? And then lose Betts to free agency helps those fans how?

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox were an 84!win team last year. No one was happy. Bring back the same team, maybe an 84 win team again. They had Betts, too. This team is capable of mediocrity with him or without him. Does keeping Betts and winning 84 games next year really retain fans? Especially if they reset the taxes and can’t add anyone? And then lose Betts to free agency helps those fans how?

 

I think most Red Sox fans realize that it was the pitching that doomed this year's team, and it will be pitching that largely determines the fate of the 2020 team.

 

I think that's completely separate from the Betts issue. He is a guy that a lot of Sox fans would like to see still in the uniform 7-8 years from now. Those fans are not just thinking about 2019 or 2020.

[notin]

I think most Red Sox fans realize that it was the pitching that doomed this year's team, and it will be pitching that largely determines the fate of the 2020 team.

 

I think that's completely separate from the Betts issue. He is a guy that a lot of Sox fans would like to see still in the uniform 7-8 years from now. Those fans are not just thinking about 2019 or 2020.

 

Yes, but how should this team get more pitching or improve their pitching if:

 

1) they cannot afford to pay anyone without exceeding their self-imposed spending limits

 

And

 

2) they have no internal minor league options to try and none to trade for established players?

 

I know many think “don’t impose those spending limits.” And maybe they won’t, but it’s not like this team has been held back by their unwillingness to spend, and they do have the right to dial back every once in a while to minimize penalties...

[moonslav59]

I think that we and hopefully others know how important a player like Betts is to any franchise. In losing him, we really don't have much to compare with. He vey well might be that good. I wish that he appeared a little more positive about continuing his red Sox relationship, but who can blame him for attempting to get what he can. Once again, I think that losing this guy without a major effort to keep him, will likely cost the franchise greatly in many ways. Lifelong fans likely will hang around but not everyone is a lifelong fan. I think that trading him for anything on the wrong side of damn good right now, will be very painful. Restocking the farm isn't the end all be all for many people.

 

I get that, but giving Betts a more than fair offer after 2020 should help most Sox fans see that we tried. Re-setting in 2020 increases our odds of getting Betts back in 2021. Plus, we'll get something for him and maybe sign someone with the money saved that will still be helping us in 2021 and beyond.

[moonslav59]

While moving Betts could be unpopular with the casual everyday he gets his sports news from Bob Lobel (is he still working?), that doesn’t change the fact that fans want one thing more than star players - winners. When defending Dombrowski’s depletion of the farm, not one single fan said “But he got star players!!” No one ever justified the Nomar trade by saying “Orlando Cabrera is a bigger star, and most definitely not a slimy little selfish weasel about to disembark on a trail of burned bridges around MLB.”

 

The Sox were an 84!win team last year. No one was happy. Bring back the same team, maybe an 84 win team again. They had Betts, too. This team is capable of mediocrity with him or without him. Does keeping Betts and winning 84 games next year really retain fans? Especially if they reset the taxes and can’t add anyone? And then lose Betts to free agency helps those fans how?

 

Nobody loved Webster and de la Rosa either, but they sure loved the parade in 2013. (Was anyone pining for AGon & Beckett?)

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Mookie Betts is not a 'small guy'. He's an insanely good all-around athlete. He bowls 300 games. He throws 305-foot strikes from right field.

 

He's 5'9". He's small

[Bellhorn04]

Nobody loved Webster and de la Rosa either, but they sure loved the parade in 2013. (Was anyone pining for AGon & Beckett?)

 

 

None of these guys were popular at the time of the trade. Not sure what this has to do with Betts, though.

[Bellhorn04]

He's 5'9". He's small

 

Yes, he's slightly below average height. Big deal. His weight is listed as 180. He smokes the ball and he can throw a ball 300 feet. He's got physical strength to spare for the game of baseball.

[notin]

None of these guys were popular at the time of the trade. Not sure what this has to do with Betts, though.

 

Nomar was one half season removed from being a 6fWAR player when he was traded. Fred Lynn was valued at 8.6 fWAR one season before being dealt. That really is Betts territory.

 

The Lynn trade didn’t work out, largely because Sullivan made a stupid trade. (Why was Lynn traded?).

 

It will be a tough sell if Betts gets traded. But if trading Betts is the first step to resetting and bringing him back long term, sign me up...

[Bellhorn04]

Nomar was one half season removed from being a 6fWAR player when he was traded.

 

That's true, but he was also in the process of rapidly destroying his popularity with the mystery injury, sitting out the infamous loss to the Yanks etc. in the midst of an obviously crucial season for the team.

[notin]

That's true, but he was also in the process of rapidly destroying his popularity with the mystery injury, sitting out the infamous loss to the Yanks etc. in the midst of an obviously crucial season for the team.

 

All stuff Betts is not immune to.

 

The fact is Nomar was King for a long time. That he had a very quick and overblown fall from grace just shows how temporary those titles can be.

 

Sox fans like stars, because when this team sucked, we still rooted for Boggs to win a batting title or Clemens to win the ERA title or strikeout title. But that was then, when we didn’t see an end to a drought that started during World War I. Now we’ve seen rings and flown flags and had multiple parades. Think about - the Sox longest title drought is 86 years. The second longest - nine years, and that one ended in 1912. The longest title drought since 2000 - 6 years (2007-2013). Not only does this team take titles, it takes them without making everyone wait. And THAT is the new norm for Red Sox fans...

[Bellhorn04]

All stuff Betts is not immune to.

 

The fact is Nomar was King for a long time. That he had a very quick and overblown fall from grace just shows how temporary those titles can be.

 

Sox fans like stars, because when this team sucked, we still rooted for Boggs to win a batting title or Clemens to win the ERA title or strikeout title. But that was then, when we didn’t see an end to a drought that started during World War I. Now we’ve seen rings and flown flags and had multiple parades. Think about - the Sox longest title drought is 86 years. The second longest - nine years, and that one ended in 1912. The longest title drought since 2000 - 6 years (2007-2013). Not only does this team take titles, it takes them without making everyone wait. And THAT is the new norm for Red Sox fans...

 

If you're going to trade a player like Mookie, though, there has to be a great reason for doing so.

 

Cutting payroll to save luxury tax is not a great reason for Mr. Average Fan.

[moonslav59]

None of these guys were popular at the time of the trade. Not sure what this has to do with Betts, though.

 

Nobody cared who these guys were. Some felt we could have gotten more for AGon, despite us dumping CC.

 

Despite trading one of our best players, we won the ring the very next year and all was forgotten.

 

I'm not asking us to forget Betts- I'm hoping we re-sign him and win a ring in 2021 or 2022. Trading him (then getting him back) first might make that more likely.

[moonslav59]

If you're going to trade a player like Mookie, though, there has to be a great reason for doing so.

 

Cutting payroll to save luxury tax is not a great reason for Mr. Average Fan.

 

No, but winning in 2021 or 2022 would help them get over it.

[Bellhorn04]

Nobody cared who these guys were. Some felt we could have gotten more for AGon, despite us dumping CC.

 

Despite trading one of our best players, we won the ring the very next year and all was forgotten.

 

AGon was not popular. Most of that 2012 team was not very popular, after the 2011 collapse and in the midst of a crappy season with a clown manager.

[Bellhorn04]

No, but winning in 2021 or 2022 would help them get over it.

 

Sure, but the odds of that happening so soon are not great.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yes, he's slightly below average height. Big deal. His weight is listed as 180. He smokes the ball and he can throw a ball 300 feet. He's got physical strength to spare for the game of baseball.

 

Only 180?!?!?

 

I tried as hard as I could to research other puny guys to see how they aged, and could only come up with these shrimps (so far):

 

AGE 37

Mays 170 pounds, .860 OPS, 5.7 WAR

Clemente 175 pounds, .835 OPS, 4.8 WAR

Aaron 180 pounds, 1.079 OPS, 7.2 WAR

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Here are a few contemporaries of Mays, Clemente and Aaron -- except I can't report their age 37 seasons, because they were all out of baseball by then... so here are numbers for the final year of each:

 

AGE 36

Frank Howard: 255 pounds, .789 OPS, 0.0 WAR

AGE 35

Boog Powell: 230 pounds, .659 OPS, 0.0 WAR

 

AGE 33

Bull Luzinski: 220 pounds, .693 OPS, -0.3 WAR

[moonslav59]

Sure, but the odds of that happening so soon are not great.

 

The odds would be better, if we got something for Betts and then re-signed him.

 

Either way, if we re-sign Betts after 2020, I doubt there will be much lingering issues with the fans, except for during 2020.

[Bellhorn04]

The odds would be better, if we got something for Betts and then re-signed him.

 

Either way, if we re-sign Betts after 2020, I doubt there will be much lingering issues with the fans, except for during 2020.

 

Trading him and then trying to re-sign is certainly an option, but it sure is an icky one.

[moonslav59]

Trading him and then trying to re-sign is certainly an option, but it sure is an icky one.

 

I'm not saying I like the option, but it might be better than these two options...

 

1) Losing Betts after 2020 and getting only a comp pick. (The ickiest choice, unless we win a 2020 ring.)

2) Trading Betts and not re-signing him after 2020.

3) Not trading Betts, missing the playoffs in 2020, then re-signing him.

4) Not trading Betts, missing the playoffs in 2020, then not re-signing him.