2020 Yankee Off-Season Thread

[notin]

I have my doubts that Gammons meant the Yankees have signed Cole.

 

Everyone knows Boras is not a “take the first offer early”, especially when there are other teams interested. The man dragged out the JD Martinez negotiations until February, but some think Gammons is suggesting Boras walked away from a potential 3-large-market team bidding war? I know any decision to sign is Cole’s, but he did hire Boras for his advice, and I doubt his advice was “avoid the crazy offers climbing over each other and just sign early.”

 

And I also doubt that when Cole does sign, this league-shattering news will be broken via a cryptic tweet that gets less media coverage than the signings of Beau Taylor, Kyle Finnegan and Keon Broxton...

Edited December 8, 2019 by notin

[notin]

Reportedly the Yankees have offered Cole $245mill over 7 years ($35mill AAV).

 

Boras will reject that, at least until both SoCal candidates make offers...

[jacksonianmarch]

I do think it goes higher, but not much higher. This is the largest contract ever for a pitcher in both AAV and total value. And on total value, it ain’t close. This is quite an opening salvo and making it public was likely leaked from the Yankee side to prove to the fans that they’re willing to go the extra mile to win.

[notin]

I do think it goes higher, but not much higher. This is the largest contract ever for a pitcher in both AAV and total value. And on total value, it ain’t close. This is quite an opening salvo and making it public was likely leaked from the Yankee side to prove to the fans that they’re willing to go the extra mile to win.

 

The problem with the Yankees leaking the amount - and I have my doubts they did - is if they did for the reason you say, then they absolutely have to get Cole. If, say, Dodgers swoop in and sign Cole for 7yrs/$252 mill, the Yankee fans that the organization thinks they’re appeasing will all say “What? The extra mile couldn’t swing another million per year?!?!”

 

I would assume it was leaked by the Boras Camp. It let’s the Angels and Dodgers know what they have to beat...

[jacksonianmarch]

I honestly don’t think the Dodgers are gonna be in on this. They’re a big money spender, but their rotation is pretty solid at the top and they’ve got their own financial concerns coming due. The Angels are going to be the biggest competition here, but I wonder if they bring in the biggest fish again a la Pujols.

 

That being said, there’s literally no reason the Yanks shouldn’t go for broke on this one. We’re at the line, so as long as the bidding doesn’t go past $40 mil, then there’s no penalty outside of cash. We are likely to swing a deal to send off Happ after this move, which will likely see us save about $10 mil off his contract, allowing us the space to re-sign Gardner, which Cashman is wont to do.

[moonslav59]

So, Cole at $245M/7 at age 29.

 

Price at $217M/7 at age 30.

 

Let's compare the two at their time of signing:

 

Price: coming off a league leading ERA of 2.45 (164 ERA+) in 220 IP.

2yrs prior: 33-17 2.88 (135 ERA+) in 469 IP (most in MLB) 1.08 WHIP

3 yrs prior: 43-25 3.01 (129 ERA+) in 655 IP and 1.08 WHIP

4 yrs: 63-30 2.90 (133) in 866 IP (1.09)

5 yrs: 75-43 3.02 (127) in 1091 IP (1.10)

6 yrs: 94-49 2.97 (130) in 1299 IP (1.11)

 

Cole: coming off a league leading ERA 2.50 (185 ERA+) in 212 IP (0.90 WHIP)

2 yrs: 35-10 2.68 (164) in 413 IP (0.96)

3 yrs: 47-22 3.20 (136) in 616 IP (1.06)

4 yrs: 54-32 3.31 (130) in 732 iP (1.12)

5 yrs: 73-40 3.15 (134) in 940 IP (1.11)

6 yrs: 84-45 3.22 (129) in 1078 IP (1.13)

 

Cole's got a big lead over Price in the most recent 2 year numbers, except IP, but the 4 prior years goes to Price:

 

Prior 3-6 years combined:

Price: 61-32 3.02 (127) in 831 IP (1.13)

Cole: 49-35 3.55 (112) in 665 IP (1.23)

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Cole was also in the dreaded Pittsburgh system, the system that preaches sinkers and contact. Cole got to a power system in Houston and never looked back.

 

The risk is there. Price’s performance fell off the map once he signed in Boston. He was serviceable in his first year, but arm issues and velocity loss have caused him to become a middle tier pitcher. Nobody could have predicted Price’s demise just as nobody could predict Cole’s. Maybe it happens in 2020, or maybe he’s the next Verlander who pitches into his late 30s as an ace. Who knows

[moonslav59]

Cole was also in the dreaded Pittsburgh system, the system that preaches sinkers and contact. Cole got to a power system in Houston and never looked back.

 

The risk is there. Price’s performance fell off the map once he signed in Boston. He was serviceable in his first year, but arm issues and velocity loss have caused him to become a middle tier pitcher. Nobody could have predicted Price’s demise just as nobody could predict Cole’s. Maybe it happens in 2020, or maybe he’s the next Verlander who pitches into his late 30s as an ace. Who knows

 

Yes, nobody knows, but the odds are he'll start declining sooner rather than later.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes, nobody knows, but the odds are he'll start declining sooner rather than later.

 

That’s not really true. The odds are that he’ll start to decline when a lot of these guys do, 33-34. Injuries can expedite that. Like I said, the deal is worth it if Cole gives us 3-4 years of 2019 type performance

[notin]

Cole was also in the dreaded Pittsburgh system, the system that preaches sinkers and contact. Cole got to a power system in Houston and never looked back.

 

The risk is there. Price’s performance fell off the map once he signed in Boston. He was serviceable in his first year, but arm issues and velocity loss have caused him to become a middle tier pitcher. Nobody could have predicted Price’s demise just as nobody could predict Cole’s. Maybe it happens in 2020, or maybe he’s the next Verlander who pitches into his late 30s as an ace. Who knows

 

Pitchers like Verlander, who actually looked like he was slowing own in 2014 and 2015, and Scherzer are very, very, very, very likely not the career models other will follow. And I am under-using the word "Very" here.. The overwhelming majority of pitchers decline throughout their 30s at such a high attrition rate, that even mentioning the alternate possibility is nothing more than wishful thinking.

 

If the Yankees miss out on Cole, it will be the best thing to happen to this organization in a long time. And by the end of 2022, you will be agreeing with me on this.

 

Want the Yankees to start their next dynasty? Pry Shane Bieber out of Cleveland...

[notin]

That’s not really true. The odds are that he’ll start to decline when a lot of these guys do, 33-34. Injuries can expedite that. Like I said, the deal is worth it if Cole gives us 3-4 years of 2019 type performance

 

Well, Cole throws an 89mph slider over 20% of the time. The only pitchers throwing a harder slider are Jake deGrom, Zack Wheeler, and Antony Desclafini. That timetable might get bumped up a year or two.

 

But as you say, it will be worth it if he can replicate a career year 4 more times...

[moonslav59]

That’s not really true. The odds are that he’ll start to decline when a lot of these guys do, 33-34. Injuries can expedite that. Like I said, the deal is worth it if Cole gives us 3-4 years of 2019 type performance

 

You crack me up.

[moonslav59]

Well, Cole throws an 89mph slider over 20% of the time. The only pitchers throwing a harder slider are Jake deGrom, Zack Wheeler, and Antony Desclafini. That timetable might get bumped up a year or two.

 

But as you say, it will be worth it if he can replicate a career year 4 more times...

 

Only Yankees can do that.

 

Don't you know?

[jacksonianmarch]

I’ll take 2018 too

[jacksonianmarch]

I’ve been preaching for months now that signing Cole would have other significantly positive effects for our squad, namely give a leader to a rotation that badly needs one. But it also helps shore up the top of our rotation for years to come.

 

With Tanaka and Paxton entering the final seasons of their contracts, Cole allows us to internally fill their spots and not have to panic and overpay them. For 2020, our rotation would be incredibly deep. Assuming a deal of Happ, we’d have 6 starters plus a lot of big league and minor league depth. For 2021 and 2022, it’ll give us a core of

 

1. Cole

2. Severino

3. German

4. Montgomery

5. Internal filler (Garcia, Gil, Schmidt, Yajure, etc)

 

Filling the back end is far, far easier to do than the top. We have to win this bidding war

[Carpin]

So, Cole at $245M/7 at age 29.

 

Price at $217M/7 at age 30.

 

Let's compare the two at their time of signing:

 

Price: coming off a league leading ERA of 2.45 (164 ERA+) in 220 IP.

2yrs prior: 33-17 2.88 (135 ERA+) in 469 IP (most in MLB) 1.08 WHIP

3 yrs prior: 43-25 3.01 (129 ERA+) in 655 IP and 1.08 WHIP

4 yrs: 63-30 2.90 (133) in 866 IP (1.09)

5 yrs: 75-43 3.02 (127) in 1091 IP (1.10)

6 yrs: 94-49 2.97 (130) in 1299 IP (1.11)

 

Cole: coming off a league leading ERA 2.50 (185 ERA+) in 212 IP (0.90 WHIP)

2 yrs: 35-10 2.68 (164) in 413 IP (0.96)

3 yrs: 47-22 3.20 (136) in 616 IP (1.06)

4 yrs: 54-32 3.31 (130) in 732 iP (1.12)

5 yrs: 73-40 3.15 (134) in 940 IP (1.11)

6 yrs: 84-45 3.22 (129) in 1078 IP (1.13)

 

Cole's got a big lead over Price in the most recent 2 year numbers, except IP, but the 4 prior years goes to Price:

 

Prior 3-6 years combined:

Price: 61-32 3.02 (127) in 831 IP (1.13)

Cole: 49-35 3.55 (112) in 665 IP (1.23)

 

 

 

I like this, both are pretty even in the prior 3 years.

 

But no matter what Boras will try to get a couple opt-outs after the 2nd or 3rd years and make it front loaded, lets say an AAV for the first 2 or 3 years of 40 Millions and try to test the market again at 31 or 32 if the performance goes as planned. I'd love a deal like this for the Yankees, the added years to the initial contract is what kills the team (Sabathia), the first contract was like 6/161 after the opt-out the Yankees added three more years and those were the ones which killed the team.

 

The deal will be something around 8 years for 270-280 Million, making the last year a mutual option.

[notin]

I like this, both are pretty even in the prior 3 years.

 

But no matter what Boras will try to get a couple opt-outs after the 2nd or 3rd years and make it front loaded, lets say an AAV for the first 2 or 3 years of 40 Millions and try to test the market again at 31 or 32 if the performance goes as planned. I'd love a deal like this for the Yankees, the added years to the initial contract is what kills the team (Sabathia), the first contract was like 6/161 after the opt-out the Yankees added three more years and those were the ones which killed the team.

 

The deal will be something around 8 years for 270-280 Million, making the last year a mutual option.

 

So now MLBTR is setting the over/under for Cole at 9yrs/$324mill.

 

Go Yankees. Go get your top priority!!

[Carpin]

So now MLBTR is setting the over/under for Cole at 9yrs/$324mill.

 

Go Yankees. Go get your top priority!!

 

I want Cole, but not at that price, too much for pitcher

[notin]

I want Cole, but not at that price, too much for pitcher

 

While Cole is a good pitcher, he's not someone who should be breaking salary records. He's a prime case of good timing...

[jacksonianmarch]

While Cole is a good pitcher, he's not someone who should be breaking salary records. He's a prime case of good timing...

 

13 WAR the last two seasons isn’t a career year contract year. But I don’t like the acquisition cost either. The problem is, we need an ace. And as much as I like MadBum, he’s not really an ace anymore. Yeah, he had a very good 2019, but he’s not a guy you can hand the ball to and expect a win every time out like you can with Cole. MadBum screwed himself with the ATV accident

[notin]

13 WAR the last two seasons isn’t a career year contract year. But I don’t like the acquisition cost either. The problem is, we need an ace. And as much as I like MadBum, he’s not really an ace anymore. Yeah, he had a very good 2019, but he’s not a guy you can hand the ball to and expect a win every time out like you can with Cole. MadBum screwed himself with the ATV accident

 

But Cole at that cost might force the Yankees to make an unpleasant decision or two down the road. Can they afford Cole and also keep both Judge and Torres? And still field a worthwhile team around those 3 players? The Yankees might have a lot of money coming off the books, but that also means they have a lot of replacements to make. And their farm system isn't what it was a couple years ago...

[jacksonianmarch]

One of the reasons why the sox are doing what they are doing and the Yanks are going for it is timing. The sox went for it when there was only no consensus dominant team. After 2015, when DD took over, the best teams in the AL were KC and Toronto. KC was never going to maintain dominance as a small market club. Toronto was buoyed by aging vets on short term deals. Both of those teams were destined for a quick demise. The sox main competitor, the Yanks, were dealing with the aftermath of Randy Levine continuing the Boss' way of life yet not paying attention to the cost and you have a downtrodden rival and no clear top dog. The sox took advantage of this, albeit not knowing the Astros were going to che..build their way to a title of their own and 2 of 3 AL Crowns. But the sox got theirs and because of the use of their window, they will be able to fly that flag forever. For the Yanks, our rebuild came faster, but outside of being given Stanton (who we didn't really need), we haven't made any moves beyond peripheral additions on short term deals. Well, now the landscape is different. The sox are facing cap hell with a continued stated goal of getting under the cap, a horrendous farm system, and guys coming due for raises or FA. They are a non factor at this point. The co-ace of the Astros is up for grabs and pulling him from Houston will be start of their downfall as they are about to experience a purge with key players hitting the FA market as well. There is no way they replicate their performance without Cole. In a year, they wont be able to aptly replace Springer. Their farm remains good, but relying entirely on a 36 yr old and a soon to be 37 yr old to lead a rotation is a fine way to end up with a disappointing season. The Twins are not a formidable foe and we all know it. The Guardians are facing a purge as well as they are going to have trouble keeping their superstar in Lindor. The timing is there to make this move. Is Cole expensive, hell yes. If he performs to Houston levels for the next 3-4 seasons, will the deal be worth it? Hell yes. Adding Cole makes our rotation probably the best in baseball. Cole, Severino, Paxton, Tanaka, JMont, and German is as deep a rotation and as strong at the top that you'll find in baseball. Add that to our top notch offense and lights out pen and that's what you do to win a title. This kind of move is what puts the Yanks back on the map and a target on their backs.

 

The other thing most people aren't seeing here is just how the money works out. For 2020, we are going to need to be careful not to pass that final line. But after 2020, the contracts for Paxton, Ellsbury, Happ, Lemahieu and Tanaka come off the books. That is $85 mil and only a portion of that will go to the arb totals for Judge, Sanchez, Torres, Andujar, JMont, etc. We would need to re-sign DJ and that will cost us, but the rest can be replaced internally or re-signed for less.

[jacksonianmarch]

But Cole at that cost might force the Yankees to make an unpleasant decision or two down the road. Can they afford Cole and also keep both Judge and Torres? And still field a worthwhile team around those 3 players? The Yankees might have a lot of money coming off the books, but that also means they have a lot of replacements to make. And their farm system isn't what it was a couple years ago...

 

The farm system isn't what it was, maybe, but it sure as hell kicked ass when we needed it to last season. Where we are LOADED is on the pitching end. Deivi Garcia, Clarke Schmidt, Luis Gil, Miguel Yajure, and others all with mid rotation or higher ceilings and all moving up in the system. That doesn't include major league depth in German, Loaisiga, and Montgomery. The money falling off the books is almost entirely on the pitching end outside of DJ. He is gonna cost us something and we are going to have to be willing to pay it. But if you stack Cole with Severino, you've got a hell of a top 2. From there, you add German (19 game winner last year) and Montgomery and all you need is one guy to stick and another to be the 6th starter/backup and you roll from there.

 

Yes, the money will make things difficult to keep the entire band together, but without a pre-arb deal or extension, that was going to be an issue anyway

[Carpin]

No matter what the yankees do with Cole they will come with a HUGE amount of crititcs

 

1. If they get Cole at a record setting deal - detractors will say that they are trying to buy a championship and that Cashman is a fool because the deal will cripple the team in a few years

 

2. If they don't get him - they will accuse the yankees of being cheap and not willing to go the extra mile to get number 28

 

Catch-22 all over

[Bellhorn04]

No matter what the yankees do with Cole they will come with a HUGE amount of crititcs

 

1. If they get Cole at a record setting deal - detractors will say that they are trying to buy a championship and that Cashman is a fool because the deal will cripple the team in a few years

 

2. If they don't get him - they will accuse the yankees of being cheap and not willing to go the extra mile to get number 28

 

Catch-22 all over

 

Very true.

[moonslav59]

No matter what the yankees do with Cole they will come with a HUGE amount of crititcs

 

1. If they get Cole at a record setting deal - detractors will say that they are trying to buy a championship and that Cashman is a fool because the deal will cripple the team in a few years

 

2. If they don't get him - they will accuse the yankees of being cheap and not willing to go the extra mile to get number 28

 

Catch-22 all over

 

I hope they get him with a massive overpay, and he becomes their David Price in 2-3 years.

[Carpin]

I hope they get him with a massive overpay, and he becomes their David Price in 2-3 years.

 

what will be your opinion if we let him go?

[moonslav59]

what will be your opinion if we let him go?

 

I'd rather you sign him, so our long term chances at besting the Yanks would improve.

 

If he gets away, our shorter term chances may be better, but you guys will just spend the money elsewhere. If you spread out the money, it will likely make you better- short and long term.

 

(Don't tell Nick I said this, because he'll turn it on me over the resigning Betts issue.)

[Carpin]

Didi to Philly

 

Terms not announced yet

 

I wish the best for him

[bkzwhitestrican]

Sucks to see Didi leave. He was a great Yankee. I also didn't wanna have to change my avatar.