The JD opt out

[notin]

I don't think so. Price did though?

 

And it was the least surprising thing Price ever did....

[Slasher9]

Are you sure you know how agents get paid?

 

By more I meant he needs JD to opt out and sign a new larger contract. Aav doesn’t matter to boras, just total contract. If JD doesn’t opt out boras just gets the % on the remaining contract.

[jacksonianmarch]

This is what JD is doing right now. He’s either negotiating an extension with the Sox or he’s lining up suitors through back channels to ensure a soft landing should he opt out. Yes, it’s tampering, but there’s no way Boras isn’t doing it

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This is what JD is doing right now. He’s either negotiating an extension with the Sox or he’s lining up suitors through back channels to ensure a soft landing should he opt out. Yes, it’s tampering, but there’s no way Boras isn’t doing it

 

Makes sense... he could also be waiting until the last required moment to declare, while seeing how his market develops. For instance, the Yanks cut loose the parrot, and now JD would have to compete for a job and dollars with another good-slug, bad-glove DH... and a cheaper version (albeit an older version who averages a hundred less OPS).

[fxkatt]

Since the compensatory pick is after the 4th round, the QO should not interfere with JD's market. The Whitesox, Rangers, and now the Yankees can offer him a brand new 4-5 year contract.

 

And if he does opt out, we are still saddled with his 6 million tax hit which wd make getting a replacement that much tougher.

[notin]

By more I meant he needs JD to opt out and sign a new larger contract. Aav doesn’t matter to boras, just total contract. If JD doesn’t opt out boras just gets the % on the remaining contract.

 

But don’t forget - the $63mill JD walks away from counts against Boras’ new earnings. So if JD’s new deal is for under $60mill, he effectively loses money.

 

The smart move for Boras (and Martinez) would be to wait one more year to opt out...

[moonslav59]

Since the compensatory pick is after the 4th round, the QO should not interfere with JD's market.

 

I don't think that is how it works.

 

The Sox will get a pick after the 4th round, but it's not a pick the signing team gives up.

 

What the signing team loses is not related to what team lost the player.

 

Any team that signs a player who has rejected a qualifying offer is subject to the loss of one or more Draft picks. However, a team's highest first-round pick is exempt from forfeiture, which is the most notable change that went into affect with the new system. Three tiers of Draft-pick forfeiture -- which are based on the financial status of the signing team -- are in place to serve as a penalty for signing a player who rejected a qualifying offer:

• A team that exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season will lose its second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year's Draft, as well as $1 million from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If such a team signs multiple qualifying-offer free agents, it will forfeit its third- and sixth-highest remaining picks as well.

Examples: A team with one pick in each round of the 2019 Draft would lose its second- and fifth-round picks. A team with two first-round picks and one pick in each subsequent round would lose its second-highest first-round pick and its fourth-round pick.

• A team that receives revenue sharing will lose its third-highest selection in the following year's Draft. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its fourth-highest remaining pick.

Examples: A team with one pick in each round of the 2019 Draft would lose its third-round pick. A team with two first-round picks and one pick in each subsequent round would lose its second-round pick.

• A team that neither exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season nor receives revenue sharing will lose its second-highest selection in the following year's Draft, as well as $500,000 from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its third-highest remaining pick and an additional $500,000.

Examples: A team with one pick in each round of the 2019 Draft would lose its second-round pick. A team with two first-round picks would lose its second-highest first-round pick.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Since the compensatory pick is after the 4th round, the QO should not interfere with JD's market. The Whitesox, Rangers, and now the Yankees can offer him a brand new 4-5 year contract.

 

And if he does opt out, we are still saddled with his 6 million tax hit which wd make getting a replacement that much tougher.

 

That’s the rub. The Sox get a comp pick after the fourth round. But a team signing him could lose their 2nd and 5th rounder

[fxkatt]

Thanks M & J for enlightening me on this point. Now, I'm leaning toward an opt in... perhaps followed by a trade, but I doubt we wd be in a position to demand much in return. So, I wd assme it wd be mainly a salary dump. Does the 6 million remain on the books with a trade?? If not, I hope to damn he opts in so we can trade this overly complex contract. (give me nice simple two year contracts from now on with no opts of any kind--so much easier to grasp and follow)

[moonslav59]

Thanks M & J for enlightening me on this point. Now, I'm leaning toward an opt in... perhaps followed by a trade, but I doubt we wd be in a position to demand much in return. So, I wd assme it wd be mainly a salary dump. Does the 6 million remain on the books with a trade?? If not, I hope to damn he opts in so we can trade this overly complex contract. (give me nice simple two year contracts from now on with no opts of any kind--so much easier to grasp and follow)

 

All that matters is the team understand the opt out nuances.

 

If we trade him and pay part of his salary, that salary counts against our tax budget, but we'd still save a lot.

[Swiharts Ghost]

All that matters is the team understand the opt out nuances.

 

If we trade him and pay part of his salary, that salary counts against our tax budget, but we'd still save a lot.

 

This is where we are now .A curveball now ? What if JDM is In this teams longterm plans ? What if Mookie and his 300 plus million never was ? .What if both men are not in the plans ? Prepare because I’m thinking neither is .

[moonslav59]

This is where we are now .A curveball now ? What if JDM is In this teams longterm plans ? What if Mookie and his 300 plus million never was ? .What if both men are not in the plans ? Prepare because I’m thinking neither is .

 

JD is too old to be in anyone's long term plans.

 

Sure, he may do very well for 4+ more years, but for a team looking to rebuild, it's not a gamble I think they'll make.

 

[fxkatt]

1) Given the Sox knew Betts was up for an extension in 2020, why didn't they give a steeper front-load to JD as in 28-28-18-18-18 (110m) with only one opt out after second year. This way they'd have gotten the best out of him and then shown him either the door or gotten him on the cheap when Betts was cashing in.

 

2) I know that if we trade him, we do inherit whatever part of his salary we pay the other team, but I assume NOT the 6 million luxury hit attached to his opting out.

[moonslav59]

1) Given the Sox knew Betts was up for an extension in 2020, why didn't they give a steeper front-load to JD as in 28-28-18-18-18 (110m) with only one opt out after second year. This way they'd have gotten the best out of him and then shown him either the door or gotten him on the cheap when Betts was cashing in.

 

2) I know that if we trade him, we do inherit whatever part of his salary we pay the other team, but I assume NOT the 6 million luxury hit attached to his opting out.

 

1) There is no $6M hit on the luxury tax, if he opts out. It's a $2.5M buy out, and that cost went against 2018 and 2019 not 2020.

2) We got JD to win a ring, and we won a ring. If it took an opt out to get him here, yipee not oh s***!

3) We've won 4 rings in the past 16 years, and we're heading for a rebuild. I'm fine with life as a Sox fan. We have the best owner we've ever had. We'll be on top again.

[fxkatt]

1) There is no $6M hit on the luxury tax, if he opts out. It's a $2.5M buy out, and that cost went against 2018 and 2019 not 2020.... .

 

I don't know what this means, but it's what I was referring to: " Renouncing Martinez would still cost $6 million for cap purposes in 2020, since it's the difference between his tax hit ($44 million) and his actual earnings ($47.5 million in salary, $2.5 million buyout) over two years in Boston." ?????

[moonslav59]

I don't know what this means, but it's what I was referring to: " Renouncing Martinez would still cost $6 million for cap purposes in 2020, since it's the difference between his tax hit ($44 million) and his actual earnings ($47.5 million in salary, $2.5 million buyout) over two years in Boston." ?????

 

If JD opts out, we have no cost counting towards the 2020 luxury tax budget.

 

If he does not opt out, and we trade him, we may pay part of his salary. That would count.

Edited November 3, 2019 by moonslav59

[Behindenemylines]

JD’s decision on the 4th will dictate how CB and the Sox front office proceeds this hot stove season. Either way there will be a lot of roster changes compared to last off season. I think the 208 is more of a mandate then is being shown. Because of that there is no way JD and Mookie are back unless one of the SPs is moved.

[notin]

JD’s decision on the 4th will dictate how CB and the Sox front office proceeds this hot stove season. Either way there will be a lot of roster changes compared to last off season. I think the 208 is more of a mandate then is being shown. Because of that there is no way JD and Mookie are back unless one of the SPs is moved.

 

Unless JD signs for a lower AAV

[Swiharts Ghost]

Unless JD signs for a lower AAV

 

Something may happen today.

[Kimmi]

Something may happen today.

 

It will either happen today or tomorrow!

 

I'm guessing tomorrow. I suspect that JD is feeling out every possible scenario.

 

I think that his preference is to opt out and try to get more money, but no one can be sure of what his market will be.

 

Boras thought he would get a lot more than he did last time around.

[moonslav59]

Paying JD more than he's already owed by the Sox is a huge gamble.

 

He's getting older.

 

He's had back issues.

 

He's pretty much just a DH, now, and playing him in the OF risks injury.

 

He will not likely make more than $23.75M a year on any new deal, but the $2.5M buyout makes it so he only needs to make $21.25M to break even for 2020 only. There is no buyout, if he opts out after 2020, and his salary dips to $19.375 those 2 last years. It may make sense to opt out after 2020, but a bad injury could be a risk he does not want to take.

 

So, he's owed $63.25M/3, assuming he stays for all 3 years. Is it worth it to him to sign for $70-75M/4? That's basically adding $7-12M for one more year. Maybe, the Sox could be the one offering the most for a 4 or 5 year deal. I'm not sure anyone offers him $80M/4 or $90M/5.

 

If we got him back for $72M/4, the AVV would be reduced from $22M to $18M. $76M/4 would be $19M, and so on...

 

I'm not sure saving that much on the AVV and luxury tax budget is something the new Sox management is even considering.

[notin]

I think it’s on the table. Despite the back issues and defensive limitations, the man is a productive hitter and his presence makes this lineup better. And if he does opt out and sign elsewhere, the Sox are still going to need a DH. And saving that much money to use some internal option like Ockimey is NOT going to yield results in any acceptable neighborhood...

[moonslav59]

I think it’s on the table. Despite the back issues and defensive limitations, the man is a productive hitter and his presence makes this lineup better. And if he does opt out and sign elsewhere, the Sox are still going to need a DH. And saving that much money to use some internal option like Ockimey is NOT going to yield results in any acceptable neighborhood...

 

No, but using the money to upgrade the rotation and pen might outweigh the loss at DH.

 

If JD ends up declining quickly or is on the DL a lot, then seeing him go might end up working out for us.

 

It's a tough call. Certainly, our line up is much better with a healthy, non declining JD in it.

[fxkatt]

If our new GM could work wonders with 50M for whole playoff team, imagine what he might do with JD's 23M on just a couple players. I think an opt out probably works best for us, unless we have some blockbuster deal lined up that involves Price/Betts.

[moonslav59]

If our new GM could work wonders with 50M for whole playoff team, imagine what he might do with JD's 23M on just a couple players. I think an opt out probably works best for us, unless we have some blockbuster deal lined up that involves Price/Betts.

 

Imagine this team with no Betts, JD, Price, Eovaldi & JBJ.

 

That's a lot of money freed up to spend elsewhere. Maybe some could be used to bring Betts back and still have what we got by trading him.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I'm definitely rooting for the opt out, but my guess is that he opts in and the Red Sox trade him, kicking in some money. In either scenario, there will be a net savings, but the net savings will be less than the opt out savings. I don't think Marrtinez is worth very much on the trade market--though, the Red Sox could probably get a quality cost-controlled reliever for Martinez after kicking in some money.

 

Also, the Red Sox should come to a handshake agreement with Martinez and let him know that they won't place a qualifying offer on him. If that agreement increases the chances that he opts out, it will be worth it. Who cares about the pick, the Red Sox need him off payroll. I don't think a handshake agreement like that would be against the rules.

Edited November 3, 2019 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

I'm definitely rooting for the opt out, but my guess is that he opts in and the Red Sox trade him, kicking in some money. In either scenario, there will be a net savings, but the net savings will be less than the opt out savings. I don't think Marrtinez is worth very much on the trade market--though, the Red Sox could probably get a quality cost-controlled reliever for Martinez after kicking in some money.

 

Also, the Red Sox should come to a handshake agreement with Martinez and let him know that they won't place a qualifying offer on him. If that agreement increases the chances that he opts out, it will be worth it. Who cares about the pick, the Red Sox need him off payroll. I don't think a handshake agreement like that would be against the rules.

 

If we plan on losing JBJ and one or more from Price, Eovaldi and Betts, then we won't have to worry about staying under the luxury tax line. Anything we can get for JD, even by pitching in $10M might still be better than him opting out.

 

Everyone says it all starts with JD, which in terms of time, it does, but the plans for other players may be more important and may effect what we do with JD, if he doesn't opt out.

 

The no QO idea looks good. We only get a pick after the 4th round anyway.

[Swiharts Ghost]

Imagine this team with no Betts, JD, Price, Eovaldi & JBJ.

 

That's a lot of money freed up to spend elsewhere. Maybe some could be used to bring Betts back and still have what we got by trading him.

 

It would be exciting no question .

[moonslav59]

It would be exciting no question .

 

If Bloom can do what he did in TB with the money saved, and we get some key pieces by trading Betts (and maybe others), and then we bring Betts back, the rebuild might just be one year!

 

[Swiharts Ghost]

Any word at all yet out of Boston ?