The JD opt out

[Kimmi]

This team is tough to evaluate, went from extreme to the other. Injuries, Age, Talent, over evaluating certain players?

I think Bloom has tough job, if Henry wants to cut money, so much easier for Bloom if JD opts out.

 

Early betting odds have the Red Sox at 12/1 to win the World Series next year, behind only the Astros at 5/1 and the Yankees and Nationals, both at 8/1 odds. LOL

[Kimmi]

Think so?

 

I will say that if he does, it isn’t a smart move on his part...

 

I am going to say no on JD opting out.

[moonslav59]

Then there is a chance his health will deteriorate and his season numbers in 2020 will be worse. He has to weigh both possibilities. Its one of those bird in the hand scenarios.

 

Exactly. In a way, his decision hints at how healthy he sees himself going into 2020.

[moonslav59]

Early betting odds have the Red Sox at 12/1 to win the World Series next year, behind only the Astros at 5/1 and the Yankees and Nationals, both at 8/1 odds. LOL

 

Wow!

[Swiharts Ghost]

Not shocked in the least

[S5Dewey]

Early betting odds have the Red Sox at 12/1 to win the World Series next year, behind only the Astros at 5/1 and the Yankees and Nationals, both at 8/1 odds. LOL

 

It looks like SOMEONE is planning the the Sox pitching staff coming around again!

[fxkatt]

I think 12-1 will keep changing with every Bloom move. And say when Sale's mystery condition is finally revealed or found out. I can see Price having a decent 3.9 era year, and Eovaldi returning to good form, but it's hard to see Sale improving... maybe a little in effectiveness, but NOT in games or innings pitched.

 

If 12-1 is accurate, then it doesn't say much for the rest of MLB. But I have a sense that the odds will fluctuate big time as between 50-1 and 10-1 before next season begins.

[moonslav59]

I think 12-1 will keep changing with every Bloom move. And say when Sale's mystery condition is finally revealed or found out. I can see Price having a decent 3.9 era year, and Eovaldi returning to good form, but it's hard to see Sale improving... maybe a little in effectiveness, but NOT in games or innings pitched.

 

If 12-1 is accurate, then it doesn't say much for the rest of MLB. But I have a sense that the odds will fluctuate big time as between 50-1 and 10-1 before next season begins.

 

I like Sale's chances more than Price & Eovaldi combined.

 

My projection:

 

WAR 2020 to 2022: Sale > Price+ Eovaldi

 

(This could happen, even if Sale misses a full season with an injury.)

 

2019 fWAR:

 

3.6 Sale

 

2.0 Price (2.3) + Eovaldi (-0.3)

[fxkatt]

It's hard to say about Eovaldi. We overworked him in all kinds of ways in 2018, and in 2019, he was just thrown into the mix at season's end. Next year will be his first starting from scratch year, and if it's a starter, I think he might surprise many. I have as much trust in him giving us 30 starts then I do Sale, given that he's kept in the rotation and out of the BP.

 

As to Price, if he's still here, he's a strong dude, keeps in shape, and is a professional pitcher. So, he may be Porcello with a much lower ERA.

 

If these two things don't happen (or trades of both) then the 12-1 odds are hard to fathom

[moonslav59]

It's hard to say about Eovaldi. We overworked him in all kinds of ways in 2018, and in 2019, he was just thrown into the mix at season's end. Next year will be his first starting from scratch year, and if it's a starter, I think he might surprise many. I have as much trust in him giving us 30 starts then I do Sale, given that he's kept in the rotation and out of the BP.

 

As to Price, if he's still here, he's a strong dude, keeps in shape, and is a professional pitcher. So, he may be Porcello with a much lower ERA.

 

If these two things don't happen (or trades of both) then the 12-1 odds are hard to fathom

 

Price will not come close to the innings Porcello gave us. That's what Porcello was best known for.

 

It's weird how Price's deepest game came in mid April.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Eovaldi has made thirty starts once in his career. The likelihood that happens again is low.

[Slasher9]

Think so?

 

..

 

Yup. Boras doesn’t make a penny more if he doesn’t opt out. This one is a sure bet.

[fxkatt]

Eovaldi has made thirty starts once in his career. The likelihood that happens again is low.

 

I'm not saying this will happen. I'm just trying to justify in my own mind this 12:1 odds thing. I think this team is, at the moment, in a way too lose-lose situation to deserve those odds. And since none of you trust either Price or Eovaldi, then how is it 12:1 happens since we are not likely to win a trade involving either one.

[Larry Cook]

I think price has the easiest road back and should be fine next year.

Sale is one pitch away from surgery. No guarantee he makes it out of spring training.

Eovaldi is a complete wild card.

 

Rodriguez and 4 days of rain is not going to get it done for us.

[notin]

Yup. Boras doesn’t make a penny more if he doesn’t opt out. This one is a sure bet.

 

Are you sure you know how agents get paid?

[illinoisredsox]

Are you sure you know how agents get paid?

 

Good question. Are they paid their percentage up front or do they get x percent each year of a contract?

[Swiharts Ghost]

I've had alot of sarcasm in this thread but time to come clean .JDM is one hell of a hitter and we are lucky to have had him here .I hope we find a way to keep both mookie and JDM if not .Thankyou to both these men for the joy and talent they displayed here on Boston .Neither should ever have to buy a drink here for Life .

[Swiharts Ghost]

With that said JDM and Bloom are on the clock .Here we go !!!!!!!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

As Papi's replacement in the heart of the order, JD did what we hoped for and more. In leading Boston to a ring in '18, Martinez led the majors in RBIs in the regular season and postseason. Let's not forget he flirted with the Triple Crown that whole summer, finishing second in batting average and home runs. This past season wasn't as great, but JD was still a top ten hitter in all three Triple Crown categories, along with OBP, Slugging and OPS.

 

Martinez was the difference-maker in the Red Sox lineup (and in the batting cages), the link missing since Ortiz' retirement. How comparable were they? Here are the last six years of Papi's averages compared to JD's past six (since the Astros cut him)-- Ortiz: 32-100-.296; .386/.567/.953... JD: 34-98-.307; .373/.581/.954.

 

Martinez earned more b-WAR in that time, 25.1 to Ortiz' 22.5, but JD struck out a lot more, averaging nearly 60 more Ks per year (141 to 83). All modern batters whiff more nowadays, but Sox fans would also rather not see JD in the outfield. Still... it just sucks that a wealthy team feels it has to let such go of such a vital cog.

 

Is it really feasible to count on the development of Chavis and maybe Casas, and the continued improvement of Devers -- who just led the majors in extra base-hits -- to make up for JD's Papi-like production in the next three years? Maybe Minnesota or Houston has another young slugger they'll cut that we can sign at a minimum...

[jacksonianmarch]

White Sox just cleared $7.5 mil in Castillo today when they dealt him to Texas. They’re making a run at JD

[moonslav59]

White Sox just cleared $7.5 mil in Castillo today when they dealt him to Texas. They’re making a run at JD

 

They also saved $1M when the Sox claimed Osich.

[Kimmi]

They also saved $1M when the Sox claimed Osich.

 

Good pick up by the way. Depth, depth, depth.

[cp176]

As Papi's replacement in the heart of the order, JD did what we hoped for and more. In leading Boston to a ring in '18, Martinez led the majors in RBIs in the regular season and postseason. Let's not forget he flirted with the Triple Crown that whole summer, finishing second in batting average and home runs. This past season wasn't as great, but JD was still a top ten hitter in all three Triple Crown categories, along with OBP, Slugging and OPS.

 

Martinez was the difference-maker in the Red Sox lineup (and in the batting cages), the link missing since Ortiz' retirement. How comparable were they? Here are the last six years of Papi's averages compared to JD's past six (since the Astros cut him)-- Ortiz: 32-100-.296; .386/.567/.953... JD: 34-98-.307; .373/.581/.954.

 

Martinez earned more b-WAR in that time, 25.1 to Ortiz' 22.5, but JD struck out a lot more, averaging nearly 60 more Ks per year (141 to 83). All modern batters whiff more nowadays, but Sox fans would also rather not see JD in the outfield. Still... it just sucks that a wealthy team feels it has to let such go of such a vital cog.

 

Is it really feasible to count on the development of Chavis and maybe Casas, and the continued improvement of Devers -- who just led the majors in extra base-hits -- to make up for JD's Papi-like production in the next three years? Maybe Minnesota or Houston has another young slugger they'll cut that we can sign at a minimum...

 

JD became one of my favorite players quickly. A team player - pays attention greatly to detail - has become one of the best hitters of his era. His is a good story. One team gives up on him and the next thing you know, here he is, a hitter that remade himself. His was a great sign. His bat in the middle of that order has made an incredible difference. Hope he remains with us but if he goes, i hope that he continues to rip that ball regardless of who he winds up with.

[jacksonianmarch]

JD was more than just a force. He also taught a lot of your hitters how to be a professional baseball player. What he does to ensure his swing is perfect is obsessive and takes an inordinate amount of preparation and time. He was willing to teach that method to his compadres and it helped everyone around him. His loss would be catastrophic for your offense, especially knowing that Betts is gonna hit the open market and could get away as well. There are mashers and there are guys who hit for average. You don’t see a lot of guys who hit for a great average also homer 30+ times a year. He’s unique. Losing him will make your offense far, far less concerning IMO as a Yankee fan

[moonslav59]

JD was more than just a force. He also taught a lot of your hitters how to be a professional baseball player. What he does to ensure his swing is perfect is obsessive and takes an inordinate amount of preparation and time. He was willing to teach that method to his compadres and it helped everyone around him. His loss would be catastrophic for your offense, especially knowing that Betts is gonna hit the open market and could get away as well. There are mashers and there are guys who hit for average. You don’t see a lot of guys who hit for a great average also homer 30+ times a year. He’s unique. Losing him will make your offense far, far less concerning IMO as a Yankee fan

 

Sounds like the Yanks should sign this guy.

[notin]

Sounds like the Yanks should sign this guy.

 

Yes. He can bump Andujar back to fourth string DH.

 

Maybe the Yankees can sign JD and the Red Sox can sign Aroldis Chapman...

[notin]

JD was more than just a force. He also taught a lot of your hitters how to be a professional baseball player. What he does to ensure his swing is perfect is obsessive and takes an inordinate amount of preparation and time. He was willing to teach that method to his compadres and it helped everyone around him. His loss would be catastrophic for your offense, especially knowing that Betts is gonna hit the open market and could get away as well. There are mashers and there are guys who hit for average. You don’t see a lot of guys who hit for a great average also homer 30+ times a year. He’s unique. Losing him will make your offense far, far less concerning IMO as a Yankee fan

 

What makes you think that even if he opts out, he isn’t coming back to Boston?

[jacksonianmarch]

What makes you think that even if he opts out, he isn’t coming back to Boston?

 

The stated inclination to get under the LT

[notin]

The stated inclination to get under the LT

 

That can be accomplished numerous ways.

 

Not to mention, re-signing Martinez at a lower AAV would help towards that goal.

 

John Henry might not want to pay luxury tax, but he also understands the profitability of a winning team, and he isn’t going to just put some dirt cheap reset team that loses 95 games and costs $175mill out there...

[jacksonianmarch]

It all depends on what the White Sox offer. Reason suggests a lower AAV over longer term. But a team with the untapped talent of the white Sox may value JD’s mentor status as much as his production.