A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

One website’s ranking of farm systems in terms of trade value:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/ranking-each-farm-system-by-trade-value/

 

The Sox are 29th and less than 1/3 the total value of the Rays or Padres.

 

11 teams have double our value. (The Cubs are 28th.)

 

So much for the mantra, "We will rebuild the farm in no time."

[OH FOY]

A major reason for that has been the continued overdelivering farm system. You create a sustainable farm and a lot of your ills either in expenditure or depth are mitigated. Bloom and Friedman are very big on depth. The Rays and Dodgers were two of the three deepest teams in baseball last year. It seems the Dodgers bring up player after player who perform off the rip and end up successful major leaguers

 

Good Post.

[moonslav59]

A major reason for that has been the continued overdelivering farm system. You create a sustainable farm and a lot of your ills either in expenditure or depth are mitigated. Bloom and Friedman are very big on depth. The Rays and Dodgers were two of the three deepest teams in baseball last year. It seems the Dodgers bring up player after player who perform off the rip and end up successful major leaguers

 

At times, even the Dodgers trade off vets for prospects- something some Sox fans seem firmly against, in theory.

[OH FOY]

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/dodgers-have-prospects-trade-red-sox-mookie-betts-and-here-are-names-you-need-know

 

Article by Tomase.

[Bellhorn04]

I agree, but I hope, unlike the Dodgers, we win ring.

 

There's the rub, eh?

 

Red Sox fans have less to complain about than any other franchise this century. But still we moan and groan quite a bit.

[OH FOY]

Baseball right? They have done good, with many different players that contributed.

[moonslav59]

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/dodgers-have-prospects-trade-red-sox-mookie-betts-and-here-are-names-you-need-know

 

Article by Tomase.

 

Seems like a lot of options.

 

If we take some salary back, maybe we could get a better prospect.

 

Here are the "trade values" of some players that might be part of a possible trade:

 

Prospects:

 

$Millions/Position/Player

50.6 C Ruiz

50.1 OF Verdugo

43.3 C Smith (MLB last year)

21.9 2B Downs

19.9 SP Gonsolin (MLB last year)

18.3 SP J Gray

 

Salary returned?

-41.3 OF Pollock (maybe, if we get them to take Price or Eovaldi)

($51M/3- Lux Tax 12.0)

12.7 OF Pederson (~$9M arb/1- Lux Tax- 9.0)

12.2 SP Maeda ($12.5M/4- Lux Tax 3.125)

-4.9 RP Jansen ($38M/2- Lux Tax 16.0)

-12.7 RP Joe Kelly ($17.7/2- Lux Tax 8.3)

[moonslav59]

There's the rub, eh?

 

Red Sox fans have less to complain about than any other franchise this century. But still we moan and groan quite a bit.

 

Some here seems to be okay with getting close every year without ever winning over winning it all but not getting close in between.

 

I lived that for over 3 decades.

 

I like the rings, even if it means sucking a few years here and there, and besides, we should never really suck bad as long as we keep spending neat the Lux line.

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox are 29th and less than 1/3 the total value of the Rays or Padres.

 

11 teams have double our value. (The Cubs are 28th.)

 

So much for the mantra, "We will rebuild the farm in no time."

 

Hopefully Bloom will be just the guy to do it.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

At times, even the Dodgers trade off vets for prospects- something some Sox fans seem firmly against, in theory.

 

Not just the fans -- I can't think of any trades of note where the Red Sox ever dealt a vet for decent prospects. Best I can come up with was Tony C. for a package that netted second baseman Doug Griffin, who couldn't hit but won a Gold Glove. Nearly all Boston trades are prospects or pre-prime players for vets...

 

Schilling and Brady Anderson for Mike Boddicker helped win two AL East crowns; Cecil Cooper for George Scott was never a good idea (for younger fans, Cooper wasn't quite Bagwell, and Scott wasn't quite Panda, but from '77-87 Coop was third in the AL in total bases, while Boomer 2.0 played two-and-half years in Boston and was done).

[jacksonianmarch]

The other thing that Bloom has a history with and something the Sox fans are gonna need to get used to is that there are no untouchables. Nobody was sacred in TB. If the Sox get a huge offer for Devers, peace Raffy. I’d wish more teams acted like that. Every team seems to have their sacred cow that they won’t move.

[notin]

Not just the fans -- I can't think of any trades of note where the Red Sox ever dealt a vet for decent prospects. Best I can come up with was Tony C. for a package that netted second baseman Doug Griffin, who couldn't hit but won a Gold Glove. Nearly all Boston trades are prospects or pre-prime players for vets...

 

Schilling and Brady Anderson for Mike Boddicker helped win two AL East crowns; Cecil Cooper for George Scott was never a good idea (for younger fans, Cooper wasn't quite Bagwell, and Scott wasn't quite Panda, but from '77-87 Coop was third in the AL in total bases, while Boomer 2.0 played two-and-half years in Boston and was done).

 

Heathcliff Slocumb for Lowe and Varitek.

 

Renteria for Andy Marte

[jad]

There's the rub, eh?

 

Red Sox fans have less to complain about than any other franchise this century. But still we moan and groan quite a bit.

 

Because we remember the five decades before the last two.

[moonslav59]

The other thing that Bloom has a history with and something the Sox fans are gonna need to get used to is that there are no untouchables. Nobody was sacred in TB. If the Sox get a huge offer for Devers, peace Raffy. I’d wish more teams acted like that. Every team seems to have their sacred cow that they won’t move.

 

TB had no untouchables for a reason- money.

 

Bloom may not treat Devers the same as Longoria.

[moonslav59]

Heathcliff Slocumb for Lowe and Varitek.

 

Renteria for Andy Marte

 

David Wells for George Kottarus

 

More recently...,

 

Jake Peavy for Edwin Escobar and Heath Hembree

 

Felix Doubront for Marco Hernandez

 

I'm sure there are others.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Heathcliff Slocumb for Lowe and Varitek.

 

Renteria for Andy Marte

 

I was trying to think of regular position players dealt for potential, but thanks for mentioning the most lopsided trade for prospects in Sox history that turned out in Boston's favor...

 

Marte was the best they could get for Renteria, who needed to get gone asap. Though Marte never suited up for Boston, he was flipped in a multi-player that landed Coco Crisp, who never broke out into a star but helped win a ring.

[notin]

The other thing that Bloom has a history with and something the Sox fans are gonna need to get used to is that there are no untouchables. Nobody was sacred in TB. If the Sox get a huge offer for Devers, peace Raffy. I’d wish more teams acted like that. Every team seems to have their sacred cow that they won’t move.

 

 

So are you done trying to convince Sox fans that Devers is definitely getting traded? And that’s Bloom is absolutely going to run this team like he ran Tampa, and that his style there was NOT influenced by budgetary limitations? I mean, you spent half of last off-season telling us we are DEFINITELY getting a new closer because DD has always had one, despite that being the exact opposite of his history.

 

Bottom line - not so sure you’re doing at great job at these GM readings beyond your repeated attempts to convince us and yourself that it’s already time for the Yankee fans to gloat about 2020...

[notin]

I was trying to think of regular position players dealt for potential, but thanks for mentioning the most lopsided trade for prospects in Sox history that turned out in Boston's favor...

 

Marte was the best they could get for Renteria, who needed to get gone asap. Though Marte never suited up for Boston, he was flipped in a multi-player that landed Coco Crisp, who never broke out into a star but helped win a ring.

 

How about Mike Stanley for Tony Armas Jr.?

 

Also, you severely undersell Marte who was BA #9 at the time. That’s overall #9, not Braves #9....

[notin]

Also - Andrew Miller for Eduardo Rodriguez...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

David Wells for George Kottarus

 

More recently...,

 

Jake Peavy for Edwin Escobar and Heath Hembree

 

Felix Doubront for Marco Hernandez

 

I'm sure there are others.

 

 

Again, I wasn't clear, but I was focused on trading established position players -- since Betts' and now Devers' names are getting mentioned here. I'm not totally against a blockbuster, as long as the return is close to equal value, which this winter means prospects with legitimate star potential. Something like Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter for Fred McGriff and Tony Fernandez. All were starting regulars, but Alomar was only 22 at the time and on the verge of exploding into a Hall of Famer.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

How about Mike Stanley for Tony Armas Jr.?

 

Also, you severely undersell Marte who was BA #9 at the time. That’s overall #9, not Braves #9....

 

Well, Marte wound up playing seven years in the bigs and hit .218. That fact doesn't detract from his status while he was #9, but maybe it should give perspective to fans who think there's just no possible way that any club under no circumstances would dare part with -- oh, say, the #32 and #33 prospects for an MLB All-Star.

[moonslav59]

I was trying to think of regular position players dealt for potential, but thanks for mentioning the most lopsided trade for prospects in Sox history that turned out in Boston's favor...

 

Marte was the best they could get for Renteria, who needed to get gone asap. Though Marte never suited up for Boston, he was flipped in a multi-player that landed Coco Crisp, who never broke out into a star but helped win a ring.

 

We did trade Agon (with CC and Beckett) for basically De la Rosa & Webster.

 

BTW, if fans were upset, they didn't stay mad for long. We won a ring the very next year.

Edited December 1, 2019 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports...

 

While Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia intends to resume his career in 2020 after multiple knee surgeries, “the most optimistic projection for Pedroia would be playing for the Sox in late May or June,” Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe hears from multiple sources. Pedroia has appeared in only nine games over the last two seasons, and with so much uncertainty around his availability, second base is a clear area of need for the team this winter.

 

Both Abraham and WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford were surprised by Boston’s decision to waive left-hander Brian Johnson earlier this week, though Johnson remained with the Red Sox (and outrighted off the 40-man roster) after going unclaimed. Johnson is also out of minor league options, which dimmed his value to other teams, Abraham hears from an evaluator. The timing of the move may have been tactical on the club’s part, Bradford notes, as Johnson was waived not long after other teams had set their 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, and thus didn’t have the space to spare on a southpaw who pitched well in 2017-18 before struggling last year. The transaction caught Johnson himself by surprise, as he told Bradford, though “in the grand scheme of things I’m just not on the 40-man. My goals don’t change. I have the same goal going into spring training, fighting for a job either in the bullpen or starting.”

[harmony]

Chris Sale reportedly given the green light to resume throwing:

 

https://weei.radio.com/blogs/rob-bradford/chris-sale-gets-green-light-after-visit-to-dr-james-andrews

[moonslav59]

Chris Sale reportedly given the green light to resume throwing:

 

https://weei.radio.com/blogs/rob-bradford/chris-sale-gets-green-light-after-visit-to-dr-james-andrews

 

This is going to burst Jacko's bubble.

The results were positive with the starter getting the go-ahead to immediately start throwing with an eye on participating in spring training.

[Bellhorn04]

This is going to burst Jacko's bubble.

The results were positive with the starter getting the go-ahead to immediately start throwing with an eye on participating in spring training.

 

I don't anyone will change their tune until we see Chris in real games.

 

But it seems like encouraging news.

[notin]

Well, Marte wound up playing seven years in the bigs and hit .218. That fact doesn't detract from his status while he was #9, but maybe it should give perspective to fans who think there's just no possible way that any club under no circumstances would dare part with -- oh, say, the #32 and #33 prospects for an MLB All-Star.

 

Bear in mind this isn’t a deal just for a former MVP - it’s for one year of former MVP and a salary of roughly $30mill.

 

I think the Sox can get a good prospect - most likely Keibert Ruiz - for Betts. But all these “2 from Lux, May, and Ruiz” proposals are extremely unlikely for a rental who has openly said he will not sign an extension...

[Bellhorn04]

Bear in mind this isn’t a deal just for a former MVP - it’s for one year of former MVP and a salary of roughly $30mill.

 

I think the Sox can get a good prospect - most likely Keibert Ruiz - for Betts. But all these “2 from Lux, May, and Ruiz” proposals are extremely unlikely for a rental who has openly said he will not sign an extension...

 

This is what I've been thinking from the get-go. Trading him at the deadline might easily yield the same thing, or even better if luck cooperates.

[jacksonianmarch]

I don't anyone will change their tune until we see Chris in real games.

 

But it seems like encouraging news.

 

Exactly

[harmony]

I don't anyone will change their tune until we see Chris in real games.

 

But it seems like encouraging news.

And some posters call me The Cooler.

Edited December 1, 2019 by harmony