A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[notin]

Noah has been banged up Abit .How about Kopech and Elroy Jimenez from Whitrsox ? How about JoC and there stud catcher from Dodgers ?

 

Mostly because White Sox GM Rick Hahn wouldn’t trade Kopech and Jimenez for one year of Betts even if you kidnapped his children and put it in the ransom demands.

 

I think that while the Sox can get a good package for Betts, the right to pay Mookie nearly $30mill for one season only might not be the insanely attractive carrot many think it is (including whoever reported a lot of the offers above)...

[Swiharts Ghost]

Shoot for the moon

[Bellhorn04]

Shoot for the moon

 

Sure, make a bunch of unrealistic asks and walk away with nothing.

[notin]

Shoot for the moon

 

Ever know anyone who got the moon?

[moonslav59]

Ever know anyone who got the moon?

 

There have been some very great returns, in the past. Maybe not "the moon," but...

[harmony]

Noah has been banged up Abit .How about Kopech and Elroy Jimenez from Whitrsox ? How about JoC and there stud catcher from Dodgers ?

One year of Mookie Betts is unlikely to land six years of nearly 23-year-old White Sox outfielder Eloy Jimenez.

 

According to one website, Betts has a surplus value of $50 million, Jimenez a surplus value of $90.1 million, Michael Kopech a surplus value of $30.7 million, Joc Pederson a surplus value of $12.7 million, catcher Will Smith a surplus value of $43.3 million and Keibert Ruiz a surplus value of $50.6 million:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

[harmony]

Some Betts trade scenarios explored...

 

Mookie Betts rumors

WWW.MLB.COM

---

With Mookie Betts entering the final year of his contract in 2020, the '18 American League Most Valuable Player Award winner will be the focus of plenty of trade talks this offseason. Below is a list of the latest news and rumors surrounding the 27-year-old outfielder.

 

Here are some (several have been reported before):

 

Betts to...(for)

 

LAD

C Keibert Ruiz (#33 MLB Pipeline)

P Josiah Gray (#75)

SS Jeter Downs (#87)

 

STL

C Andrew Knizner (STL #3)

3B Elehuris Montero (STL #4)

OF Randy Arozarena (STL #10)

 

ATL

OF Drew Waters (#23 MLB)

P Kyle Muller (ATL #7)

C William Contreras (ATL #8)

 

NYM

Noah Syndergaard

or

Steven Matz & Brandon Nimmo

or

Edwin Diaz & Dominic Smith

or

(with Eovaldi) Jeff McNeil

According to one website, Atlanta outfield prospect Drew Waters alone has more surplus value ($56.8 million) than Mookie Betts ($50 million):

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

[moonslav59]

According to one website, Atlanta outfield prospect Drew Waters alone has more surplus value ($56.8 million) than Mookie Betts ($50 million):

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

So, maybe a 1 for 1 deal, assuming ATL wants to shoot for a 1 year window (doubtful).

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Wow, you shoot high. Eloy and Kopech? Smith and Joc? I think Nimmo and Matz is far more likely and heck, I prognosticated that back in the summer with zero prompting from the media. It’s makes far more sense since Betts will render Nimmo obsolete and with the Mets having a 3 headed monster on the mound, Matz would be expendable. It isn’t the return you’d hope for, but it’s the most realistic return considering Betts single year of control and his high price tag.

 

Fans seem to be taking sides on the Betts' situation: either keep him for one more productive season or dump him for pennies on the dollar. I'm 100% for the former, especially when the alternative is getting another team's fifth starting pitcher and a position player who couldn't even crack our starting outfield.

 

You can argue all you want about how two MLB players are the best we can get, but a 5th starter and a 4th outfielder won't ever replace a generational All-Star. Boston won't be as good without Betts, even with Matz and Nimmo, this year, next year or any year.

 

As a spectator, I'd rather watch one more year of Boston with Betts, than see another team's castoffs hopelessly try to replace him. Like the ridiculous trade proposal in the Globe yesterday that suggested a Sox-Yankees deal: Betts for Andujar, Frazier, and two minor league pitchers (who aren't even NY's top prospects). As if anyone -- not to mention a brand-new GM -- would swap a four-time Gold Glover for the Yanks' worst defensive infielder and worst defensive outfielder.

 

Unless there are good MLB-ready prospects coming back, getting something for nothing is still nothing to me. And I trust an intelligent front office to settle for nothing less.

[moonslav59]

Fans seem to be taking sides on the Betts' situation: either keep him for one more productive season or dump him for pennies on the dollar. I'm 100% for the former, especially when the alternative is getting another team's fifth starting pitcher and a position player who couldn't even crack our starting outfield.

 

You can argue all you want about how two MLB players are the best we can get, but a 5th starter and a 4th outfielder won't ever replace a generational All-Star. Boston won't be as good without Betts, even with Matz and Nimmo, this year, next year or any year.

 

As a spectator, I'd rather watch one more year of Boston with Betts, than see another team's castoffs hopelessly try to replace him. Like the ridiculous trade proposal in the Globe yesterday that suggested a Sox-Yankees deal: Betts for Andujar, Frazier, and two minor league pitchers (who aren't even NY's top prospects). As if anyone -- not to mention a brand-new GM -- would swap a four-time Gold Glover for the Yanks' worst defensive infielder and worst defensive outfielder.

 

Unless there are good MLB-ready prospects coming back, getting something for nothing is still nothing to me. And I trust an intelligent front office to settle for nothing less.

 

I doubt we trade him for a 5th starter and 4th OF'er. It will more likely be for 1-2 near ML-ready prospects. Then, with the money saved, we let Bloom do his magic with cheap FA signings to fill numerous voids in our 25 man roster.

 

CF (assuming no JBJ)

C (assuming no Leon)

1B

SP

RP

RP

SP depth

[harmony]

Fans seem to be taking sides on the Betts' situation: either keep him for one more productive season or dump him for pennies on the dollar. I'm 100% for the former, especially when the alternative is getting another team's fifth starting pitcher and a position player who couldn't even crack our starting outfield.

 

You can argue all you want about how two MLB players are the best we can get, but a 5th starter and a 4th outfielder won't ever replace a generational All-Star. Boston won't be as good without Betts, even with Matz and Nimmo, this year, next year or any year.

 

As a spectator, I'd rather watch one more year of Boston with Betts, than see another team's castoffs hopelessly try to replace him. Like the ridiculous trade proposal in the Globe yesterday that suggested a Sox-Yankees deal: Betts for Andujar, Frazier, and two minor league pitchers (who aren't even NY's top prospects). As if anyone -- not to mention a brand-new GM -- would swap a four-time Gold Glover for the Yanks' worst defensive infielder and worst defensive outfielder.

 

Unless there are good MLB-ready prospects coming back, getting something for nothing is still nothing to me. And I trust an intelligent front office to settle for nothing less.

According to one website, the Red Sox package of Mookie Betts ($50 million) and Jay Groome ($4.3 million) would have a surplus value of $54.3 million:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

The proposed Yankee package of Miguel Andujar ($27.2 million), Clint Frazier ($19 million), Luis Gil ($8.7 million) and Mike King ($2.4 million) would have a surplus value of $57.3 million.

 

The Red Sox would spread their risk over four players with a combined 20 years of team control while the Yankees would spread their risk over two players with a combined seven years of team control.

[moonslav59]

Should we sign Betts to over $300M/10 years?

 

History will be against us, but...

 

Here are the highest contracts of all time (some were not FA signings):

(Not Longterm)

7+ Years

$35.5 x 12 Trout (to 2030- renogotiated)

$33.0 x 2 Verlander (to 2021)

$32.5 x 6 Greinke (to 2021) Renegotiated

$32.5 x 8 Arenado (to 2026)

$31.0 x 8 Miggy (to 2023)

$31.0 x 7 Price (to 2022)

$31.0 x 3 Kershaw (to 2021- renegotiate)

$30.7 x 7 Kershaw (to 2020)

$30.0 x 7 Scherzer ('21)

$30.0 x 10 Machado ('28)

$28.0 x 1 Clemens '07

$27.5 x 10 ARod '17 (renegotiated)

$27.5 x 4 Cespedes '20

$27.5 x 4 deGrom '20

$26.0 x 5 Goldschmidt '24

$25.8 x 6 Lester '20

$25.7 x 7 Verlander '19

$25.6 x 5 Chris Sale '24

$25.4 x 13 Harper'31

$25.2M x 10 ARod '10

 

$25.0 x 5 Howard '16

$25.0 x 13 Stanton '27

$25.0 x 3 Cespedes '18

$25.0 x 7 Strasburg '23

$25.0 x 3 Arrieta '20

$24.5 x 6 Greinke '18

$24.4 x 5 Sabathia '16 (renegotiated)

$24.1 x 6 Trout '20

$24.0 x 5 Cliff Lee '15

$24.0 x 10 Pujols '21

$24.0 x 6 Hamels '18

$24.0 x 10 R Cano '23

$23.8 x 9 Fielder '20

$23.4 x 7 Altuve '24

$23.3 x 6 Corbin '24

$23.0 x 7 Sabathia '15

$23.0 x 8 Mauer '18

$23.0 x 7 Chris Davis '22 (Only 4+ yr deals listed below)

$22.9 x 6 J Santana '13

$22.5 x 8 Teixeira '16

$22.5 x 10 Votto '23

$22.1 x 7 Tanaka '20

$22.1 x 6 J Upton '21

$22.0 x 7 A Gon '18

$22.0 x 4 H Ram '18

$22.0 x 5 J Zimmerman '20

$22.0 x 5 JD Martinez '22 (opt outs)

$21.9 x 7 Ellsbury '20

$21.7 x 6 Cueto '21

$21.3 x 6 M Cain '17

$21.2 x 5 J Upton '22 (renogiated)

$21.0 x 5 R Braun '20

$21.0 x 6 Darvish '23

$20.6 x 4 Porcello '19

$20.3 x 7 C Crawford '17

$20.0 x 8 M Ramirez '08

$20.0 x 8 M Kemp '19

$20.0 x 5 Bregman '24

$20.0 x 6 Bogaerts '25

 

 

Reposted for your enjoyment. Date listed was the last year of the deal.

[notin]

I'm expecting Mookie to be a Padre, as San Diego 1) has 40 man roster issues and 2) has already issued a statement that they will be packaging prospects in order to upgrade the MLB roster.

 

Per Matt Cerrone, the Red Sox asking price for Betts is two good prospects, an outfielder to replace Betts, and a mid-rotation SP.

 

If the Sox deal with the Padres, they might be able to get RHSP Cal Quantrill (mid-rotation SP), OF Franchy Cordero (the outfielder to replace Betts), 2B Xavier Edwards and LHP David Weathers (the two good prospects).

 

San Diego would get an MVP-caliber outfielder and free up some 40-man roster space to protect other prospects from the Rule 5 draft. The Red Sox get their potentially unrealistic trade demands. And Betts gets to live for a year in San Diego, which is something everyone should want.

 

Win-win-win...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

According to one website, the Red Sox package of Mookie Betts ($50 million) and Jay Groome ($4.3 million) would have a surplus value of $54.3 million:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

The proposed Yankee package of Miguel Andujar ($27.2 million), Clint Frazier ($19 million), Luis Gil ($8.7 million) and Mike King ($2.4 million) would have a surplus value of $57.3 million.

 

The Red Sox would spread their risk over four players with a combined 20 years of team control while the Yankees would spread their risk over two players with a combined seven years of team control.

 

We can compare numbers from someone else's website or compare what we actually watched with our eyes the past few years... though it's always prudent to consider all forms of quantitative and qualitative data. I just know from watching the games -- which Yankee fans will surely confirm -- the horrors of Andujar at third in 2018 and Frazier in right in 2019.

 

Defense wins championships, and the best Red Sox outfield I've ever seen was the best part of the best team I've ever rooted for.

[Bellhorn04]

There have been some very great returns, in the past. Maybe not "the moon," but...

 

You have to be careful though. Sometimes you get burned by unrealistic hopes.

 

I suspect that Craig Kimbrel hurt himself quite a bit by asking for the moon last year.

[moonslav59]

You have to be careful though. Sometimes you get burned by unrealistic hopes.

 

I suspect that Craig Kimbrel hurt himself quite a bit by asking for the moon last year.

 

I think we were talking about what return in trade we might get for Betts, not him shooting for the moon on a contract.

[Slasher9]

I'm expecting Mookie to be a Padre, as San Diego 1) has 40 man roster issues and 2) has already issued a statement that they will be packaging prospects in order to upgrade the MLB roster.

 

Per Matt Cerrone, the Red Sox asking price for Betts is two good prospects, an outfielder to replace Betts, and a mid-rotation SP.

 

If the Sox deal with the Padres, they might be able to get RHSP Cal Quantrill (mid-rotation SP), OF Franchy Cordero (the outfielder to replace Betts), 2B Xavier Edwards and LHP David Weathers (the two good prospects).

 

San Diego would get an MVP-caliber outfielder and free up some 40-man roster space to protect other prospects from the Rule 5 draft. The Red Sox get their potentially unrealistic trade demands. And Betts gets to live for a year in San Diego, which is something everyone should want.

 

Win-win-win...

 

this is slasher approved

[moonslav59]

I'm expecting Mookie to be a Padre, as San Diego 1) has 40 man roster issues and 2) has already issued a statement that they will be packaging prospects in order to upgrade the MLB roster.

 

Per Matt Cerrone, the Red Sox asking price for Betts is two good prospects, an outfielder to replace Betts, and a mid-rotation SP.

 

If the Sox deal with the Padres, they might be able to get RHSP Cal Quantrill (mid-rotation SP), OF Franchy Cordero (the outfielder to replace Betts), 2B Xavier Edwards and LHP David Weathers (the two good prospects).

 

San Diego would get an MVP-caliber outfielder and free up some 40-man roster space to protect other prospects from the Rule 5 draft. The Red Sox get their potentially unrealistic trade demands. And Betts gets to live for a year in San Diego, which is something everyone should want.

 

Win-win-win...

 

You think we could get Margot and 2 prospects (no Quantrill) for Betts?

[Bellhorn04]

I think we were talking about what return in trade we might get for Betts, not him shooting for the moon on a contract.

 

Same principle. If the other side thinks you're being ridiculous they may turn their attention elsewhere.

[notin]

You think we could get Margot and 2 prospects (no Quantrill) for Betts?

 

Only AJ Preller knows for sure.

 

I'm not even sure the Sox could actually get the package I proposed. All I can tell you is it does work out using the valuation system on baseballtradevalues.com. But any team can label any player immovable or have a much higher value on any prospect for whatever reason. And it fits the package that Matt Cerrone (who is not affiliated with the Red Sox in any way) says they want.

 

Now, accroding to baseballtradevalues, Margot has slightly less surplus value than Franchy Cordero, so he could be an acceptable substitution. Or if the Sox could eliminate Quantrill, they could get better prospects, like 1B Josh Naylor and one of LHP Adrian Morejon or C Luis Campusano.

 

I actually prefer Cordero to Margot. But I can see the merit to either choice...

Edited November 14, 2019 by notin

[illinoisredsox]

According to one website, the Red Sox package of Mookie Betts ($50 million) and Jay Groome ($4.3 million) would have a surplus value of $54.3 million:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

The proposed Yankee package of Miguel Andujar ($27.2 million), Clint Frazier ($19 million), Luis Gil ($8.7 million) and Mike King ($2.4 million) would have a surplus value of $57.3 million.

 

The Red Sox would spread their risk over four players with a combined 20 years of team control while the Yankees would spread their risk over two players with a combined seven years of team control.

 

They would have that Yankee stench though. And for whatever reason (I think it's the clubhouse drinking water), very few players seem to do well once they leave the Bronx.

[notin]

They would have that Yankee stench though. And for whatever reason (I think it's the clubhouse drinking water), very few players seem to do well once they leave the Bronx.

 

Drinking water spiked with Stanislozol?

[Bellhorn04]

They would have that Yankee stench though. And for whatever reason (I think it's the clubhouse drinking water), very few players seem to do well once they leave the Bronx.

 

Unless they're pitchers.

[notin]

Unless they're pitchers.

 

... named "Sonny"?

[Bellhorn04]

... named "Sonny"?

 

He's Exhibit A at the moment. I can think of some others that did better when they left NY. A. J. Burnett, Melancon etc.

[notin]

He's Exhibit A at the moment. I can think of some others that did better when they left NY. A. J. Burnett, Melancon etc.

 

Well. some hitters did, too. Steve Balboni leaps to mind. No idea why. No one should ever unwillingly think of Steve Balboni...

[harmony]

Well. some hitters did, too. Steve Balboni leaps to mind. No idea why. No one should ever unwillingly think of Steve Balboni...

Or Jay Buhner:

 

[moonslav59]

Should we sign Betts to over $300M/10 years?

 

Here are the highest contracts of all time (some were not FA signings):

 

7+ Years

$35.5 x 12 Trout (to 2030- renogotiated)

$32.5 x 8 Arenado (to 2026)

$31.0 x 8 Miggy (to 2023)

$31.0 x 7 Price (to 2022)

$30.7 x 7 Kershaw (to 2020)

$30.0 x 7 Scherzer ('21)

$30.0 x 10 Machado ('28)

$27.5 x 10 ARod '17 (renegotiated)

$25.7 x 7 Verlander '19

$25.4 x 13 Harper'31

$25.2M x 10 ARod '10

 

$25.0 x 13 Stanton '27

$25.0 x 7 Strasburg '23

$24.0 x 10 Pujols '21

$24.0 x 10 R Cano '23

$23.8 x 9 Fielder '20

$23.4 x 7 Altuve '24

$23.0 x 7 Sabathia '15

$23.0 x 8 Mauer '18

$23.0 x 7 Chris Davis '22

$22.5 x 8 Teixeira '16

$22.5 x 10 Votto '23

$22.1 x 7 Tanaka '20

$22.0 x 7 A Gon '18

$21.9 x 7 Ellsbury '20

$20.3 x 7 C Crawford '17

$20.0 x 8 M Ramirez '08

$20.0 x 8 M Kemp '19

 

 

I edited out the shorter term contracts- just 7+ year contracts listed.

 

Red= Bad

Blue= Pending or good

Black= so-so

Edited November 14, 2019 by moonslav59

[harmony]

I edited out the shorter term contracts- just 7+ year contracts listed.

 

Red= Bad

Blue= Pending or good

Black= so-so

Joe Mauer posted fWAR valued at $96.7 million in the first four years of his eight-year, $178 million contract while David Price has posted fWAR valued at $85 million in the first four years of his seven-year, $217 million contract.

 

One player came closer than the other to meeting his contract in the first four years.

Edited November 14, 2019 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Joe Mauer posted fWAR valued at $96.7 million in the first four years of his eight-year, $178 million contract while David Price has posted fWAR valued at $93 million in the first four years of his seven-year, $217 million contract.

 

One player came closer than the other to meeting his contract in the first four years.

 

Yes, I meant to put price in red. (Fixed it.)

 

One could argue Price is "pending."