A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[kenmeister]

Think about this Holt had a nice season, and made only 3.575 million, and he might not be coming back, because his salary might be too high. That's the mindset you have to have this Off-Season.

Follow the money.

 

I think we wait to see if JD opts out before determining their spending limits.

[kenmeister]

It looks better without the 2019 Porcello, Thornburg, Wright, Cashner & Chacin in there.

 

Porcello I'd bring back at $6 million or less.

Thornburg - good riddance

Wright - he'll never be healthy again; he should retire.

Cashner - I thought he did well out of the pen, but I wouldn't pay him more than $2.5 million

Chacin - Happy to take another flyer on him for $1.5 million.

[OH FOY]

I think we wait to see if JD opts out before determining their spending limits.

 

These statements by McAdam was before anything about the JD situation, they are cutting Pay-roll. He's there and those guys have good inside info. Sources.

That's how I take it.

[moonslav59]

Porcello I'd bring back at $6 million or less.

Thornburg - good riddance

Wright - he'll never be healthy again; he should retire.

Cashner - I thought he did well out of the pen, but I wouldn't pay him more than $2.5 million

Chacin - Happy to take another flyer on him for $1.5 million.

 

I doubt Porcello takes $6M, and if he did, it would be $6M x 4-5 years.

 

My guess is he gets $27-36M for 3 years or $32-44M for 4 years.

[mvp 78]

I doubt Porcello takes $6M, and if he did, it would be $6M x 4-5 years.

 

My guess is he gets $27-36M for 3 years or $32-44M for 4 years.

 

I bet he signs for 3/33.

[moonslav59]

I bet he signs for 3/33.

 

Looks about right.

 

I would not pay that much. To me, maybe $16M/2 is too much.

[Kimmi]

They will. Who says they wont, just not going to be spenders like everyone is used to. Try to get value, with analytics.

 

!!!

 

People like to refer to this as coupon clipping, but this is the way to go.

 

Find those 2nd tier players who will provide great value to the team.

[Kimmi]

Looks about right.

 

I would not pay that much. To me, maybe $16M/2 is too much.

 

I would not sign Porcello for more than 2 years.

 

If he would take $16M/2, I'd do that in a heartbeat.

[moonslav59]

!!!

 

People like to refer to this as coupon clipping, but this is the way to go.

 

Find those 2nd tier players who will provide great value to the team.

 

We have plenty of roster space for second tier players.

 

I count 18-22 third tier guys on the projected 40 man, right now.

[mvp 78]

Looks about right.

 

I would not pay that much. To me, maybe $16M/2 is too much.

 

He eats innings and has CY upside. Someone will pay.

[notin]

He eats innings and has CY upside. Someone will pay.

 

Plus he’s probably one of the five best starting pitchers on the market and only turns 31 in a couple months...

[moonslav59]

He eats innings and has CY upside. Someone will pay.

 

Nobody expected Porcello to win the Cy Young a couple years back, so I guess anything can happen, but saying "Cy Young upside" might be a little too hyperbolic.

 

[moonslav59]

Plus he’s probably one of the five best starting pitchers on the market and only turns 31 in a couple months...

 

5th might be a little generous.

 

Here's a list I found:

Starting pitchers

 

Gerrit Cole (29 years old, 7.4 WAR)

Stephen Strasburg (31, 5.7) -- can opt out of 4 years, $100 million remaining on contract

Hyun-Jin Ryu (33, 4.8)

Zack Wheeler (30, 4.7)

Jake Odorizzi (30, 4.3)

José Quintana (31, 3.3) -- $11.5 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)

Madison Bumgarner (30, 3.2)

Homer Bailey (34, 2.9)

Michael Pineda (30, 2.7)

Yu Darvish (33, 2.6) -- can opt out of 4 years, $81 million remaining on contract

Kyle Gibson (32, 2.5)

Cole Hamels (36, 2.5)

Adam Wainwright (38, 2.2)

Tanner Roark (33, 2.0)

Wade Miley (33, 2.0)

Brett Anderson (32, 2.0)

Iván Nova (33, 2.0)

Martín Pérez (29, 1.9) -- $7.5 million club option for 2020 ($500,000 buyout)

Andrew Cashner (33, 1.8)

Jason Vargas (37, 1.8) -- $8 million club option for 2020 ($2 million buyout)

Rick Porcello (31, 1.8)

Julio Teheran (29, 1.6) -- $12 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)

Jordan Lyles (29, 1.6)

Gio Gonzalez (34, 1.4)

Jake Arrieta (34, 1.1) -- can opt out of 1 year, $20 million remaining on contract unless Phillies exercise 2-year, $40 million option

Rich Hill (40, 0.9)

Dallas Keuchel (32, 0.8)

Chris Archer (31, 0.7) -- $9 million club option for 2020 ($1.75 million buyout)

Matt Moore (31, 0.5)

Clay Buchholz (35, 0.1)

Tyson Ross (33, 0.0)

Félix Hernández (34, -0.1)

Jhoulys Chacín (32, -0.1)

Jeremy Hellickson (33, -0.1)

Odrisamer Despaigne (33, -0.1)

Michael Wacha (28, -0.2)

Alex Wood (29, -0.2)

Edinson Vólquez (36, -0.2)

Marco Estrada (36, -0.2)

Shelby Miller (29, -0.2)

Clayton Richard (36, -0.2)

Drew Smyly (29, -0.3)

Wade LeBlanc (35, -0.3)

Matt Harvey (31, -0.3)

Héctor Noesi (33, -0.3)

Ervin Santana (37, -0.4)

Ross Detwiler (34, -0.6)

Trevor Cahill (32, -0.8)

Derek Holland (33, -1.0)

Edwin Jackson (36, -1.1)

[notin]

I doubt Quintana will be a free agent at that price. Trade bait? Maybe, but not a free agent.

 

Porcello has a massive advantage over Wheeler and Ryu, who are injured so often their Topps baseball cards list their position as “DL.”

 

So Porcello or Odirizzi as next in line behind the top three of Strasburg, MadBum or Cole?

[notin]

I mean, one season of fWAR? Ryu has pitched 400 innings in the past 5 years. That’s a big, big factor...

[moonslav59]

Mets Lagares was not given his option.

 

Nats decline option on Adams.

[notin]

Mets Lagares was not given his option.

 

Nats decline option on Adams.

 

And Braves declined the option on Billy Hamilton...

[moonslav59]

And Braves declined the option on Billy Hamilton...

 

Basically just about every defensive CF'er we said would be available this winter.

[harmony]

Basically just about every defensive CF'er we said would be available this winter.

Reducing the demand for Jackie Bradley Jr. at a projected salary of $11 million (thereby increasing the chances Bradley will be non-tendered).

[Nick]

Craig Kimbrel's 3 year $45 million deal he signed mid season will be looked at as a danger sign. In 20.2 innings last year he posted a 6.53 ERA.

 

See Kimmi, Theo is not perfect and he went against your theory on not paying big bucks for a reliever. He was declining in 2018. Big mistake so far.

[OH FOY]

Yes, but if he turns it around, not only will he might help the Cubs, he's an excellent Trade chip. Relievers, at the Deadline get the best returns back.

[moonslav59]

I'm just glad we said good bye to Kimbrel.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm just glad we said good bye to Kimbrel.

 

I probably wouldn't be here if we didn't. I hyperventilated so badly when he was on the mound in the '18 postseason that my wife threatened to forbid me to watch. I calmed down, but only after the Sanchez, McCann and Bregman fly balls barely stayed in the park... not to mention plays of the season -- Nunez/Pearce, Betts' throw and Beni's dive -- that saved his "saves".

[moonslav59]

Here's something on Theo & the Cubs' budget:

 

Breaking down Cubs' financial situation

 

Oct. 30: Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein has made it a policy not to delve into specifics when it comes to his team's payroll plans in any given year, but chairman Tom Ricketts' comments on 670 AM The Score in Chicago on Wednesday morning at least gave some indication that he'd like to trim the payroll and get below the $208 million Competitive Balance Tax threshold in 2020.

 

"It's not about how much you spend," Ricketts said on the Mully & Haugh Show, pointing out that the Cubs had an estimated $234 million payroll in 2019 but went 84-78. "It's about how much you win. The correlation between spending and winning isn't nearly as strong as we'd like it to be in a sense. Obviously, the top couple teams in the league [in payroll] didn't make the playoffs. We spent more than every team that made the playoffs -- probably a couple of them combined. Even if you really thought spending was the answer, the free-agent market is always fraught.

 

"This year we'll pay several million dollars to the league, which is just kind of a dead-weight loss that goes to the other teams. And on top of that, if you do it for too long, the fees go up. And if you do it for too much, then you lose Draft picks. Ultimately, it's great to have the financial resources that we do. It's an advantage, and there's no doubt about it."

 

The Cubs' roster, as currently constituted, could account for close to $200 million once options and projected arbitration costs are factored in, according to MLB.com's Jordan Bastian, which means the team is unlikely to be engaged on upper echelon free agents such as Gerrit Cole or Anthony Rendon.

 

Epstein's best route to improve the team could be trading a core piece such as Kris Bryant, Javier Báez or Kyle Schwarber to address other needs. All three can become free agents after the 2021 season. Anthony Rizzo could enter free agency the same year if his $16.5 million club options are picked up in each of the next two seasons. And Willson Contreras is due to hit the open market the following year.

 

While Ricketts expects the Cubs to remain a perennial contender, he conceded the team probably won't be able to re-sign all of its top players in the coming years. Bryant, Báez and Schwarber are also getting increasingly expensive now as they go through arbitration, which could be another motivation to move one of them.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

So, basically, Theo didn't need to return to the Red Sox since he already runs them in the NL...

[moonslav59]

So, basically, Theo didn't need to return to the Red Sox since he already runs them in the NL...

 

When Theo left the Sox, he spoke openly about the mistakes he made with the Sox, especially towards the end.

 

It kind of seems like he did the same thing with the Cubs, but like the Sox, the beginning part was all about getting that first ring.

[moonslav59]

Speaking of Theo, if you compare his first 4 years vs his last 4 years, you might be shocked by the disparities.

 

 

[Behindenemylines]

Wouldn’t it be nice to have a couple starting pitchers that pitched in the high minors waiting to crack the 2020 rotation? There is something to be said about producing your own starting pitchers.

[Kimmi]

Craig Kimbrel's 3 year $45 million deal he signed mid season will be looked at as a danger sign. In 20.2 innings last year he posted a 6.53 ERA.

 

See Kimmi, Theo is not perfect and he went against your theory on not paying big bucks for a reliever. He was declining in 2018. Big mistake so far.

 

No, Theo is not perfect. He has made his share of mistakes, and paying big prices for relievers is one of them. The ironic thing is that after Foulke, I'm pretty sure he commented about the mistake of signing relievers to big deals. That said, he is still the GOAT.

 

FTR, when Theo signed Kimbrel, I posted in that thread something along the lines of "Theo has lost his mind."

 

These GMs should listen to me more often.

[moonslav59]

No, Theo is not perfect. He has made his share of mistakes, and paying big prices for relievers is one of them. The ironic thing is that after Foulke, I'm pretty sure he commented about the mistake of signing relievers to big deals. That said, he is still the GOAT.

 

FTR, when Theo signed Kimbrel, I posted in that thread something along the lines of "Theo has lost his mind."

 

These GMs should listen to me more often.

 

A lot of his signings in his last 4 years were questionable, at best.

Carl Crawford

Bobby Jenks

Adrian Beltre

John Lackey

Mike Cameron

Marco Scutaro

Johns Smoltz

Takashi Saito

Brad Penny

Rocco Baldelli

Matt Clemente

Re-signed Mike Lowell (3 yrs)

Re-signed Curt Schilling (1 yr)

 

Plus, these trades (some were good):

Reddick for Bailey

Marwin Gonzalez for Marco Duarte

Rizzo for AGon

Dustin Richardson for Andrew Miller

Scrubs for Salty

Kotchman for Bill Hall

Masterson for VMart

Adam LaRoche for Casey Kotchman

Coco Crisp for Ramon Ramirez

Manny for Jason Bay