A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

Sox Pitching with and eye towards 2020:

(Listed by IP with ERA)

 

Likely Returning

161 ERod 3.92

147 Sale 4.40

105 Price 4.36

65 Walden 3.31

58 Workman 2.02

50 Barnes 4.32

46 Brasier 4.14

39 Eovaldi 6.64

38 Hembree 4.06

38 Taylor 2.87

23 DHern 3.47

 

Unknown Status for 2020 (traded?):

48 Brewer 4.32

48 Velaz 5.81

36 Cashn 6.94

31 Weber 4.35

29 Johns 6.83

13 Lakins 4.05

13 Shawa 8.53

6 Wright 8.53

4 Poyner 15.75

 

Likely Not Returning

144 Porcello 5.49

19 Thornburg 7.71

 

 

Edited August 27, 2019 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Sox Everyday Players with an Eye Towards 2020:

Listed by PAs with OPS

 

Likely Returning:

612 Betts .888

573 Bogey .939

569 Devers .956

544 JD M .960

531 Beni .819

424 Vaz .803

382 Chavis .766

196 Holt .848

119 Travis .770

87 Marco .824

22 Lin .573

 

Unknown Status (maybe traded?):

467 JBJ .718

159 Leon .558

21 Pedey .243

 

Likely Not Returning:

240 Moreland .832

174 Nunez .548

99 Pearce .503

29 Swihart .695

17 Owings .310

[harmony]

Not really.

 

He could be DFA'd again.

 

His return cost in trade should be between very little and extremely little.

 

If you want to debate whether it might be Brian Johnson vs Hector Velazquez, then I'll stay out of that discussion.

 

You never answered my question. Last year, you wanted JBJ. Would you trade Broxton for JBJ?

The Mariners are unlikely to do that trade because Jackie Bradley Jr. still does not fit within Seattle's window of contention:

 

harmony harmony is online now

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Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post

If this team keeps playing like this, quite a few players should be gone by August, including Bradley...

Would anyone trade nearly two years of Jackie Bradley Jr. for nearly four years of Seattle center fielder Mallex Smith?

 

Bradley currently has an OPS+ of 14 and a bWAR of a negative 0.5 while Smith has an OPS+ of 40 and a bWAR of a negative 0.8.

 

I doubt the Mariners, with their extended window, would do that trade.

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19224-The-annual-Jackie-Bradley-Jr-thread-(2019-Edition)?p=1236332&highlight=harmony#post1236332

Edited August 27, 2019 by harmony

[Donnie Sadler was short]

For 2020, it’s a safe bet we know who 4 of the starters are.

 

The questions surround:

the fifth starter

1b/2b/Chavis

bullpen

center field

 

We do? I can only count E-Rod & Price..Sale & E-vo are big ? marks IMHO

[moonslav59]

The Mariners are unlikely to do that trade because Jackie Bradley Jr. still does not fit within Seattle's window of contention:

 

 

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19224-The-annual-Jackie-Bradley-Jr-thread-(2019-Edition)?p=1236332&highlight=harmony#post1236332

 

The great defensive JBJ in the spacious Seattle CF would instantly turn you into a contender!

[notin]

The Mariners are unlikely to do that trade because Jackie Bradley Jr. still does not fit within Seattle's window of contention:

 

 

 

 

The Mariners haven't seen the post-season in 18 years. Who does fit into their window of contention? Edgar Martinez' grandsons?

[harmony]

The great defensive JBJ in the spacious Seattle CF would instantly turn you into a contender!

Or the "great defensive JBJ" could turn the Red Sox into a contender!

[harmony]

The Mariners haven't seen the post-season in 18 years. Who does fit into their window of contention? Edgar Martinez' grandsons?

Seattle players under years of team control:

 

 

... plus top prospects:

 

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2019/8/20/20812419/industry-experts-weigh-in-on-mariners-top-prospects

 

... from a well regarded farm system:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-list/farm-ranking?sort=-1,1&type=100&filter=&pos=&team=

 

The Mariners were in contention for much of last season, finishing with more wins than the Red Sox are projected to post this year despite baseball's highest payroll:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/

[oldtimer]

Sox Pitching with and eye towards 2020:

(Listed by IP with ERA)

 

Likely Returning

161 ERod 3.92

147 Sale 4.40

105 Price 4.36

65 Walden 3.31

58 Workman 2.02

50 Barnes 4.32

46 Brasier 4.14

39 Eovaldi 6.64

38 Hembree 4.06

38 Taylor 2.87

23 DHern 3.47

 

Unknown Status for 2020 (traded?):

48 Brewer 4.32

48 Velaz 5.81

36 Cashn 6.94

31 Weber 4.35

29 Johns 6.83

13 Lakins 4.05

13 Shawa 8.53

6 Wright 8.53

4 Poyner 15.75

 

Likely Not Returning

144 Porcello 5.49

19 Thornburg 7.71

 

 

 

To reset in 2020 while remaining somewhat competitive we may well need to find low cost pitching since Price, Sale and Eovaldi will probably be with us but are a question maark going forward. Our three farm pitchers who might help are DHern, Houch and Mata. All three should get a look in spring training in the starter role. One or more of them might be better than Johnson for instance.

 

I am not enamored of Barnes or Hembree. They do throw hard, but both had very inconsistent years. We may need to look elsewhere for BP help.

[oldtimer]

Sox Everyday Players with an Eye Towards 2020:

Listed by PAs with OPS

 

Likely Returning:

612 Betts .888

573 Bogey .939

569 Devers .956

544 JD M .960

531 Beni .819

424 Vaz .803

382 Chavis .766

196 Holt .848

119 Travis .770

87 Marco .824

22 Lin .573

 

Unknown Status (maybe traded?):

467 JBJ .718

159 Leon .558

21 Pedey .243

 

Likely Not Returning:

240 Moreland .832

174 Nunez .548

99 Pearce .503

29 Swihart .695

17 Owings .310

 

Again, if we want to reset in 2020 (depends on the Sox business plan), we will need to look for lower cost players from the farm. My view is Dalbec has the best chance with Duran nearly ready and we may well need a full time outfield replacement and Chatham who is capable of playing short and second and is a line drive type hitter. Others in the farm aren't ready at this point in my estimation.

 

The reset, if it comes, may require JBJ to be traded, and the utility infield positions are not that strong so that C havis, Travis, Marco and Lin may find themselve competing with Dalbec and Chatham. I like Holt enough to keep him and hope that he can stand the wear and tear of a full season.

[moonslav59]

To reset in 2020 while remaining somewhat competitive we may well need to find low cost pitching since Price, Sale and Eovaldi will probably be with us but are a question maark going forward. Our three farm pitchers who might help are DHern, Houch and Mata. All three should get a look in spring training in the starter role. One or more of them might be better than Johnson for instance.

 

I am not enamored of Barnes or Hembree. They do throw hard, but both had very inconsistent years. We may need to look elsewhere for BP help.

 

Barnes was actually on a long stretch of improving every year until 2019.

 

Hembree was looking as good as ever, until his 2019 injury.

 

Both should not be traded when their stock is low. Keep them for 2020, and maybe we trade them at the deadline, assuming we are resetting or out of contention.

[moonslav59]

Again, if we want to reset in 2020 (depends on the Sox business plan), we will need to look for lower cost players from the farm. My view is Dalbec has the best chance with Duran nearly ready and we may well need a full time outfield replacement and Chatham who is capable of playing short and second and is a line drive type hitter. Others in the farm aren't ready at this point in my estimation.

 

The reset, if it comes, may require JBJ to be traded, and the utility infield positions are not that strong so that C havis, Travis, Marco and Lin may find themselve competing with Dalbec and Chatham. I like Holt enough to keep him and hope that he can stand the wear and tear of a full season.

 

I agree, and although Holt has had injury issues, I'd try to keep him at a low cost.

 

I'd play Chavis, Marco and Travis just about every game from now on. Bring up Dalbec, Chatham and Lin in September- maybe even Ockimey.

[Bellhorn04]

I have no idea what the team is going to do about Mookie. It's almost hard to believe that we're facing the prospect of him being in another team's uniform for the last 8 or 10 years of a likely HOF career, but it's a very real possibility.

[moonslav59]

I have no idea what the team is going to do about Mookie. It's almost hard to believe that we're facing the prospect of him being in another team's uniform for the last 8 or 10 years of a likely HOF career, but it's a very real possibility.

 

I'd hate to lose Betts, and I'm on record with suggesting higher offers than just about anyone else is willing to give, but if we lose him, it's not like we won't spend that money elsewhere. We'll end up with something special, but I'd sure hate to see him go.

[notin]

I have no idea what the team is going to do about Mookie. It's almost hard to believe that we're facing the prospect of him being in another team's uniform for the last 8 or 10 years of a likely HOF career, but it's a very real possibility.

 

The Notin Plan is very simple

 

1. Reset

2. Extend Mookie after 2020 one way or another.

 

 

No idea what the Dombrowski/Romero/Whoever Plan is...

[moonslav59]

The Notin Plan is very simple

 

1. Reset

2. Extend Mookie after 2020 one way or another.

 

 

No idea what the Dombrowski/Romero/Whoever Plan is...

 

You stole my plan!

 

(My plan does not include DD as the GM.)

[OH FOY]

The Notin Plan is very simple

 

1. Reset

2. Extend Mookie after 2020 one way or another.

 

 

No idea what the Dombrowski/Romero/Whoever Plan is...

 

Start with your steps for Reset. Thanks, and if you say Reset, is that for Payroll? Because the Sox Payroll will be high too for 2021 before you start the season. With a very, very weak Farm in Pitching Prospects.

Pitching cost money.

Edited August 27, 2019 by OH FOY!

[OH FOY]

Price turns 36 during the 2021 season. 32 million, and 1 more year after that. Make sure your factoring Age when resetting. Edited August 27, 2019 by OH FOY!

[mvp 78]

Barnes was actually on a long stretch of improving every year until 2019.

 

Hembree was looking as good as ever, until his 2019 injury.

 

Both should not be traded when their stock is low. Keep them for 2020, and maybe we trade them at the deadline, assuming we are resetting or out of contention.

 

Yup

[OH FOY]

One last thing what is the contract you think will get a Mookie Betts contract is for 2021?

[Bellhorn04]

One last thing what is the contract you think will get a Mookie Betts contract is for 2021?

 

Probably something like 8 * 32.5 = 260.

[moonslav59]

Start with your steps for Reset. Thanks, and if you say Reset, is that for Payroll? Because the Sox Payroll will be high too for 2021 before you start the season. With a very, very weak Farm in Pitching Prospects.

Pitching cost money.

 

Rest for 2020 by getting under the first luxury tax line. It would likely mean trading or non tendering JBJ and signing no free agents this winter, unless we trade more salary or do not offer some arbs.

 

Then, in theory, we can spend large for 2021 (Betts?) and will have had 2 years of better draft positions and higher International draft pools to help start the farm rebuild.

 

We can't guess wrong on almost anything between now and 2021 to make this a 1-2 year down time (cliff).

[moonslav59]

Probably something like 8 * 32.5 = 260.

 

Or $310M/10

[OH FOY]

Probably something like 8 * 32.5 = 260.

 

Pretty good guess.

[OH FOY]

Betts will be 37 years old, going into last season, getting 31 Million.

Where do you think he'll play? RF?

These are the contracts that kills teams. Years its not the money.

[moonslav59]

Betts will be 37 years old, going into last season, getting 31 Million.

Where do you think he'll play? RF?

These are the contracts that kills teams. Years its not the money.

 

Yup, and the GM is long gone by the 7th year of the deal (or earlier).

[moonslav59]

Possible in-system options for filling some gaps in 2020:

 

SP:

S Wright

D Hernandez

B Johnson

H Velazquez

T Houck

D Reyes

M Shawaryn

 

RP:

(See SP'er list)

Feltman

Lakins

Poyner

Kelley

Bazardo

Gorst

Joan Martinez

 

1B:

Chavis (2B/3B)

Dalbec (3B)

Travis (LF)

Ockimey (DH)

 

2B:

Chavis (1B/3B)

Marco (SS/3B)

Lin (SS/3B/OF)

Chatham (SS/3B)

 

CF:

Duran

Lin

Travis LF (Beni>CF)

 

[moonslav59]

On Pedroia...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/08/latest-on-dustin-pedroia-2.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

[moonslav59]

The Projected 2020 Roster (Assuming no trades, DFA's or FA Signings)

 

SP: Sale, Price, ERod, Eovaldi, D Hernandez, Wright, Johnson or Velazquez

RP: Workman, Barnes, Hembree, Taylor, Walden (Wright/Johnson/Velaz.)

C: Vaz & Leon (Centeno?)

1B: Chavis & Travis, Dalbec or Ockimey

2B: Marco & Lin (Chatham?)

SS: Bogey

3B: Devers

LF: Beni (Travis)

CF: JBJ? (Beni/Duran)

RF: Betts

DH: JD

 

[notin]

Start with your steps for Reset. Thanks, and if you say Reset, is that for Payroll? Because the Sox Payroll will be high too for 2021 before you start the season. With a very, very weak Farm in Pitching Prospects.

Pitching cost money.

 

My steps for reset?

 

1. Non-tender JBJ. Possibly bring him back if he takes a lower salary. Otherwise move on.

2. Deal Barnes for pitching or an outfielder.

3. Deal Dalbec for whatever Barnes doesn't get.

 

Some trades that work out and actually make sense on baseballtradevalues.com include deals like Barnes to the Cubs for Ian Happ (where he is blocked an an OF, but CHC could move him back to 2B), or to Colorado for Raimel Tapia (who is blocked on all fronts). Dalbec to Miami for Jose Urena also works out and actually makes sense for both teams.

 

I'm sure other deals for Barnes could be found that are even better. Everyone needs cheaper bullpen help...