Let's see if Porky is really worth the money he's getting paid.

[Larry33]

Now with Sale sideline for the season and Price with some recent wrist issues it's time for Porcello to show his true worth to this team will he step up and lead this pitching staff or will he go flaccid to leave others mop up his usual brutal outings. Hey Porky time prove me wrong that your 2016 season wasn't just a fluke and the team was really the culprit for your record and success that year.

[kenmeister]

Since your post on 8/20 ...

 

8/21 he went 5 innings allowed 3 runs in a loss.

8/27 he went 5 innings allowed 2 runs in a win.

Fingers crossed for a great start tonight!

 

Lifetime stats question: Why is he listed at -0.2 WAR for 2017? I get that 11-17 is a losing record, but the guy contributed 203.1 innings that year at a 4.65 ERA which is far from worthless.

[dgalehouse]

Now with Sale sideline for the season and Price with some recent wrist issues it's time for Porcello to show his true worth to this team will he step up and lead this pitching staff or will he go flaccid to leave others mop up his usual brutal outings. Hey Porky time prove me wrong that your 2016 season wasn't just a fluke and the team was really the culprit for your record and success that year.

 

Now we have a Gorky and a Porky ?

[jung]

Thread title: Let's see if Porky is really worth the money he's getting paid.

 

Geezus, for a second I thought you were implying that Pearce was coming back.

[Larry33]

Since your post on 8/20 ...

 

8/21 he went 5 innings allowed 3 runs in a loss.

8/27 he went 5 innings allowed 2 runs in a win.

Fingers crossed for a great start tonight!

 

Lifetime stats question: Why is he listed at -0.2 WAR for 2017? I get that 11-17 is a losing record, but the guy contributed 203.1 innings that year at a 4.65 ERA which is far from worthless.

 

Wow check which team he had some success with all bottom dwellers BAL, KC and COL weak teams he lost against LA and PHI the good teams.

 

Now tonight the loss is solely on Porcello shoulders 4 IP 8 H 6ER 2HR 13.50 ERA .400 avg 2.50 WHIP is that what you get for 21 mil bucks. The pen did it job pitched 5 innings of scoreless baseball.

 

Porcello was highly overpaid for his Red Sox tenure he never lived up to the contract he signed now more than ever when he's needed the most he's a total flop an embarrassment to all the fans.

[Bellhorn04]

Wow check which team he had some success with all bottom dwellers BAL, KC and COL weak teams he lost against LA and PHI the good teams.

 

Now tonight the loss is solely on Porcello shoulders 4 IP 8 H 6ER 2HR 13.50 ERA .400 avg 2.50 WHIP is that what you get for 21 mil bucks. The pen did it job pitched 5 innings of scoreless baseball.

 

Porcello was highly overpaid for his Red Sox tenure he never lived up to the contract he signed now more than ever when he's needed the most he's a total flop an embarrassment to all the fans.

 

Take it easy, Larry. Porcello was a decent value outside of this year. He also contributed strongly in last year's playoff run.

[Larry33]

Take it easy, Larry. Porcello was a decent value outside of this year. He also contributed strongly in last year's playoff run.

 

Really! You're kidding me right I can't fathom why could anybody see an 82.5 mil dollar value in Porcello EVER. For cry out loud he's nothing more than a Wade Miley type pitcher with a lifetime 4,30 plus ERA. All the pitchers who make 20 mil plus/per year in the MLB Porcello shouldn't been one them guaranteed there's no logic to his contract heck his WAR number tell you he isn't worth the money they gave him.

 

The sad part in all this is that they'll try to nickel and dime a player like Mookie Betts that truely deserve the money hopefully they can work put a deal but I'm not optimistic that will be the case. Too many big contract were signed by players with same level of caliber as Mookie.

[FredLynn]

Really! You're kidding me right I can't fathom why could anybody see an 82.5 mil dollar value in Porcello EVER. For cry out loud he's nothing more than a Wade Miley type pitcher with a lifetime 4,30 plus ERA. All the pitchers who make 20 mil plus/per year in the MLB Porcello shouldn't been one them guaranteed there's no logic to his contract heck his WAR number tell you he isn't worth the money they gave him.

 

The sad part in all this is that they'll try to nickel and dime a player like Mookie Betts that truely deserve the money hopefully they can work put a deal but I'm not optimistic that will be the case. Too many big contract were signed by players with same level of caliber as Mookie.

 

If his ERA was just 4.30 I could live with his contract. But its nearly 6 this year.

 

I am not going to miss him.

[notin]

Really! You're kidding me right I can't fathom why could anybody see an 82.5 mil dollar value in Porcello EVER. For cry out loud he's nothing more than a Wade Miley type pitcher with a lifetime 4,30 plus ERA. All the pitchers who make 20 mil plus/per year in the MLB Porcello shouldn't been one them guaranteed there's no logic to his contract heck his WAR number tell you he isn't worth the money they gave him.

 

The sad part in all this is that they'll try to nickel and dime a player like Mookie Betts that truely deserve the money hopefully they can work put a deal but I'm not optimistic that will be the case. Too many big contract were signed by players with same level of caliber as Mookie.

 

Porcello has been worth 10.8 fWAR on this current contract. Over the same period of time, Price has been worth 10.6 fWAR. But somehow, Porcello is the contract worth complaining about?

 

And this is before we discuss dollar values and time remaining...

[dgalehouse]

Porcello , Price , Sale and so many other pitchers have problems when the velocity starts to dip . Kind of like life itself .

[Larry33]

Porcello has been worth 10.8 fWAR on this current contract. Over the same period of time, Price has been worth 10.6 fWAR. But somehow, Porcello is the contract worth complaining about?

 

And this is before we discuss dollar values and time remaining...

 

Just because the Red Sox were stupid enough to give Price a ridiculous contract it doesn't boost the value of Porcello's erroneous deal whatsoever it just mean that they've got 2 real bad contracts on their hands. How about Jon Lester over that same period of time Lester managed to put up 15.7 war for the Cubs but he didn't get offered 20 plus mil/ year contract here. Nobody will tell me a pitcher with 4.30 plus ERA is worth 20 mil plus/year anywhere.

 

I think your argument might hold better if you don't count the time remaining he's getting worst as he face any quality type opposition with his 5.63 ERA.

[Bellhorn04]

Just because the Red Sox were stupid enough to give Price a ridiculous contract it doesn't boost the value of Porcello's erroneous deal whatsoever it just mean that they've got 2 real bad contracts on their hands. How about Jon Lester over that same period of time Lester managed to put up 15.7 war for the Cubs but he didn't get offered 20 plus mil/ year contract here. Nobody will tell me a pitcher with 4.30 plus ERA is worth 20 mil plus/year anywhere.

 

I think your argument might hold better if you don't count the time remaining he's getting worst as he face any quality type opposition with his 5.63 ERA.

 

Porcello is having a horrible year this year, no argument.

 

His other years here, though, you can't just look at the ERA, you have to look at innings pitched, Quality Starts etc.

 

Porcello has been one of the most durable, consistent innings-eaters in the game, which was a big part of his value.

[Larry33]

Porcello is having a horrible year this year, no argument.

 

His other years here, though, you can't just look at the ERA, you have to look at innings pitched, Quality Starts etc.

 

Porcello has been one of the most durable, consistent innings-eaters in the game, which was a big part of his value.

 

Seriously, well according to his stats he accumulated 8.9 WAR during his tenure with The Red Sox according to statistics the average pitcher in the MLB is a 2 WAR player. Now take his 8.9 WAR he accumulated with the Red Sox in his 5 years that equals to 1.78 WAR per year. Now the salary for an average pitcher in the MLB is 5.2 mil/per year that's well below the 20 plus mil/per year that in Porcello contract.

 

The years he had success is the years that the Red Sox were the best hitting team in the MLB and Porcello is one of the top pitchers that has received the most run support in the MLB. Eckersley even said so on a broadcast that the run support Porcello get when he's pitching is ridiculous something like 7.8 runs. Heck Porcello himself said the same thing he can't believe how much run support he gets everytime he take the mound.

 

Porcello is nothing more than an average pitcher who got lucky to hit the lottery jackpot in a contract offered by a bunch of idiots in the Red Sox front office.

[moonslav59]

Porcello is having a horrible year this year, no argument.

 

His other years here, though, you can't just look at the ERA, you have to look at innings pitched, Quality Starts etc.

 

Porcello has been one of the most durable, consistent innings-eaters in the game, which was a big part of his value.

 

True, but so many horrible IP'd can be a negative.

 

He's near to last in xFIP, this year.

[Bellhorn04]

Seriously, well according to his stats he accumulated 8.9 WAR during his tenure with The Red Sox according to statistics the average pitcher in the MLB is a 2 WAR player. Now take his 8.9 WAR he accumulated with the Red Sox in his 5 years that equals to 1.78 WAR per year. Now the salary for an average pitcher in the MLB is 5.2 mil/per year that's well below the 20 plus mil/per year that in Porcello contract.

 

The years he had success is the years that the Red Sox were the best hitting team in the MLB and Porcello is one of the top pitchers that has received the most run support in the MLB. Eckersley even said so on a broadcast that the run support Porcello get when he's pitching is ridiculous something like 7.8 runs. Heck Porcello himself said the same thing he can't believe how much run support he gets everytime he take the mound.

 

Porcello is nothing more than an average pitcher who got lucky to hit the lottery jackpot in a contract offered by a bunch of idiots in the Red Sox front office.

 

Using average salaries of MLB pitchers is wrong.

 

Look at his dollar values in FanGraphs, which are based on free agent salary costs, and get back to me.

[Bellhorn04]

True, but so many horrible IP'd can be a negative.

 

He's near to last in xFIP, this year.

 

This year is a disaster. No one's arguing about that.

[Larry33]

True, but so many horrible IP'd can be a negative.

 

He's near to last in xFIP, this year.

 

Funny you mention his xFIP who's right there with him at the bottom how substantial Wade Miley my comparison type to Porcello.

[notin]

This year is a disaster. No one's arguing about that.

 

If there is truth to the rocket ball having a smaller thread height, Porcello is exactly the type of pitcher who could see the worst negative effects. He doesn't throw exceptionally hard so as to blow his fastball by hitters, and his heavy reliance on the two-seamer could be problematic. The reduced thread height would mean the pitch broke less away from right-handed hitters, making it a straighter low 90's fastball. That type of pitch gets punished in MLB, unless you have an excellent changeup to keep hitters off-balance.

 

Porcello's offspeed offerings are probably breaking less due to the reduced seam height, making his sinker basically the same pitch as his changeup, and his curveball would hang a lot more often. He's already given up more flyballs than he did all of last season...

[Larry33]

Using average salaries of MLB pitchers is wrong.

 

Look at his dollar values in FanGraphs, which are based on free agent salary costs, and get back to me.

 

Average salaries should be used for average pitchers.

 

According to Fangraph free agent players received 9 mil per war in recent years well if you look at Porcello WAR in 2015 when he signed his 82.5 mil 4 year deal it was -1.0 WAR. Even if you take his 1.78 WAR x 9 mil for 4 years that will only add up to 64 mil not 82.5 mil.

 

Porcello is being overpaid for his type caliber of pitcher just like I said there's noway he's worth 21.5 mil dollars he'll go down just as an average pitcher in the MLB.

 

Let me ask you this think the Red Sox will ever retire his number to put up along side the Red Sox Great Players.

[illinoisredsox]

Average salaries should be used for average pitchers.

 

According to Fangraph free agent players received 9 mil per war in recent years well if you look at Porcello WAR in 2015 when he signed his 82.5 mil 4 year deal it was -1.0 WAR. Even if you take his 1.78 WAR x 9 mil for 4 years that will only add up to 64 mil not 82.5 mil.

 

Porcello is being overpaid for his type caliber of pitcher just like I said there's noway he's worth 21.5 mil dollars he'll go down just as an average pitcher in the MLB.

 

Let me ask you this think the Red Sox will ever retire his number to put up along side the Red Sox Great Players.

 

That just may be the dumbest question ever asked on this board.

[notin]

That just may be the dumbest question ever asked on this board.

 

I know.

 

If not having his number retired means he was overpaid, I guess Dwight Evans was a contract bust as well...

[Larry33]

That just may be the dumbest question ever asked on this board.

 

Exactly my point I was trying to prove that Porcello is nothing more than an average pitcher and there's noway he 's worth the 82.5 mil dollars he's getting paid.

 

He's getting an elite players salary for being an average mediocre pitcher.

[notin]

Exactly my point I was trying to prove that Porcello is nothing more than an average pitcher and there's noway he 's worth the 82.5 mil dollars he's getting paid.

 

He's getting an elite players salary for being an average mediocre pitcher.

 

$20mill isn't an elite pitcher salary, and wasn't even in 2016. That same off-season, Jordan Zimmerman signed for 5 years $110mill, Jeff Samardjzia signed for 5 years $90mill and Wei-Yin Chen signed for 5 years $80mill. You might want to re-adjust your scale for "elite" pitchers. The elite pitchers that offseason were Price and Greinke, both of whom signed for substantially more than a $20mill AAV.

 

Porcello was also 26 at the time, and it was a rare case of paying a pitcher for what he was going to do as opposed to what he had already done...

[Bellhorn04]

What exactly is the point in hating on the guy on his way out the door anyway?

 

Porcello may not have earned his full contract, but he was by no means a bust.

 

And he came up pretty big in last year's playoff run, too. If you care about the flags, there's a value in that that can't even be quantified.

Edited September 5, 2019 by Bellhorn04

[moonslav59]

What exactly is the point in hating on the guy on his way out the door anyway?

 

Porcello may not have earned his full contract, but he was by no means a bust.

 

And he came up pretty big in last year's playoff run, too. If you care about the flags, there's a value in that that can't even be quantified.

 

Well said.

 

I loved the signing at the time, and I have no regrets, now.

[kenmeister]

Well said.

 

I loved the signing at the time, and I have no regrets, now.

 

Even this year, Porcello is our 2nd best starter, which admittedly isn't saying much.

[moonslav59]

Even this year, Porcello is our 2nd best starter, which admittedly isn't saying much.

 

I know IPs matter, but not when most are s*****.

 

I'd still put ERod, Price & Sale ahead of Porcello, this year.

[oldtimer]

With the first tier of the Competitive Balance Tax beginning at $208 Mil this coming year and the benefits eating up somewhere close to $15 Mil of that, if you want to reset how would you apportion the money to be spent. Also knowing that the 25 man team is probably going to have 13 pitching spots and 12 position players. I am talking about a team sitting without the contracts in place that we have but sort of the ideal apportionment.

 

The presumption is you ave $208 -$15 - $10 (mid season flexability)=$183Mil

 

I would assume you need to set aside $12 Mil for the remainder of the 40 man roster, leaving $171 Mil for the 25 man roster.

 

What % do you allocate for pitching which means field players can get the rest?

 

If you think it is 60%, based on the earlier discussion about the cost of ML pitching these days, you have $102.6 Mil with$68.4Mil for the 12 field players. A hypothetical case where you pay your ace 23%, your 2nd starter 17%, your 3rd 14%, 4th 10%, 5th 6%, closer 10% and the remaining 7 pitchers combined 10% combined is not unreasonable but doesn't allow for the kind of salaries the Sox have granted.

 

The field players get to split up $68.4 mil. If you have 3 established stars each getting a solid cut, like 25, 25% and 20% that leaves 30% for the remaining 7 players. Clearly these figures don't work for the Red Sox if they go for the reset, even without the sunken cost of Pedroia.

 

It's a way of thinking like the front office may have to do by first deciding whether to reset and second to decide how to allocate salaries. It also will demonstrate to them where adjustments will need to be made. Remember, there are other competitive teams with less than 1/2 the Competitive Balance Tax first tier in salaries this year.

[kenmeister]

I know IPs matter, but not when most are s*****.

 

I'd still put ERod, Price & Sale ahead of Porcello, this year.

 

I wouldn't, when you consider that the innings lost from Porcello would have to be picked up by, I guess, Velazquez.

[moonslav59]

I wouldn't, when you consider that the innings lost from Porcello would have to be picked up by, I guess, Velazquez.

 

Not much difference to me there.

 

Plus, Porky only has 6 more IP than Sale and 24 more runs allowed.

 

Velazquez would have to have an ERA of 36.00 to even them up.

 

Price has 46 less innings than Porky and 45 less runs, so who even filled in for Porky would just need an ERA under 9.00 to even it up there.