Realistically is Chris Sale past his prime?

[dgalehouse]

Agreed. Looked like he was starting to get his velocity up there again he would throw some 97’s but I don’t think he can go much past that. I don’t honk he will be as good as last season however these last 5 games have been embarrassing. Not sure what has changed as he got his s*** together after that brutal start. But he’s quickly going back to where he was at the start of the season.

 

He has not been able to maintain 97 on his fastball. Often , the drop off is significant.

[TylerD]

He has not been able to maintain 97 on his fastball. Often , the drop off is significant.

 

Has he hit over 97 this year or is that his max? But yes it’s sad to see.

[Thunder]

Easy question here. No.

[moonslav59]

Well said Jung I never thought Price would recover like he has. Granted he isn’t going 7 or 8 innings this year he is still throwing the baseball damn good. He looks more like our Ace than anyone. Hope Sale figures it out eventually.

 

Most great pitchers lose some velocity as they age and re-adjust. Most have a period, where they struggle, usually between 30-34. Not all end up regaining some of what they lost by using their experience, improved location and just plain "smarts," but sometimes it takes time.

 

Yes, Sale is a fierce competitor, so that should help him find a way to get back to respectability. It may take time, and time is not on the Sox side, right now. Our window is closing quickly, and Sale may need months of even years to get back to near where he was before.

 

Price struggled at age 30, and many here gave up on him and called his contract an albatross.

 

Here's a look at the best 14 SP'ers by WAR since 2004:

 

Verlander: was a stud almost every year (peaked at age 28-29), except age 25 (4.84), then at age 31 he slipped to 4.54 (worst WHIP since age 25), but then quickly recovered and has had his best 2 WHIP and K/BB rates the last 2 years (2.52 and 2.98 ERAs) He's been 2.52 to .338 since his meltdown season in 2014.

 

Kershaw: has been a beast since age 21. From ages 23-29 his ERA was always between 1.77 and 2.53!)His WHIP was below 1.005 straight years from ages 23-29). It's hard to call 2.73 (last year) and 3.09 (this year) a meltdown, but he has show some decline (His last two WHIP'd have been his highest since age 23.) The jury is out on him getting back to peak prime, but he's still doing great.

 

Scherzer: Max has been a beast since age 28. He was not all that great before then. His worst ERA since age 28 was at age 29 (3.15) and 31 (2.96)- hardly setback years. He breaks the mold. His best ERA seasons?

2.30 at age 34 (2019)

2.51 at age 32

2.53 at age 33

3.79 at age 30

(He's been under 1.000 WHIP his last 5 seasons. He was at 1.175 in that age 29 season or 2014.)

 

Sabathia: A classic example of a thrower who had to reinvent himself into a pitcher. He was great from ages 25-31 (2.70-3.38 every year), but he struggled for 3 seasons (hopefully Sale doesn't). He was at 4.73 to 5.28 from ages 32-34, but then improved. He never came close to pre age 30 CC, but 3.91, 3.69, 3.65 and 4.03 are not bad (much better than 32-34).

 

Greinke: Zack has had 2 fantastic seasons (ages 25 and 31) He's been up and down at various ages.

2.16 to 3.69 ages 23-25

3.83 to 4.17 at 26-27

3.43 age 28

1.66 to 2.63 ages 29-31

4.37 at age 32 (meltdown season)

2.73-3.20 ages 33-35 regained form

 

Felix H: This is the guy we hope Sale does not become. He was fantastic from ages 23-28 with an ERA between 2.14 and 3.47. 5 of 6 seasons he was below 3.06! Age 29 was not bad, but it showed decline (3.53). He has declined ever since:

3.82

4.36

5.55

6.52 (His WHIP has declined in 4 of his last 5 seasons, too.)

 

Hamels: Cole has been pretty consistent all the way from age 2010 to today, but he did have one season out of the norm at age 33 (4.20) His WHIP spiked a bit from ages 32-34. He was 2.46 to 3.60 every year from 2010 to 2019, except

3.65 age 31

4.20 age 33

3.78 age 34

(He's at 2.98 this year at age 35.)

 

C Lee: retired after his age 35 season. He was so-so to bad until age 29 spike year (2.54 ERA. He then went to 3.22 at age 30 but got slightly better afterwards

3.18 at age 31

2.40 age 32

3.16b age 33

2.87 age 34

Then, 3.65 in his final season in MLB.

 

Halladay: HOF'er was very consistent from ages 24-34 (2.35 to 3.71 every year, except at age 27 he went 4.20). His best 4 years were all from ages 31-34, which is encouraging to Sale's case.

2.78

2.79

2.44

2.35

Then melted down quickly

4.49 age 35

6.82 age 36.

 

Lester: Our man Jon has had 2 "meltdown" seasons:

4.82 age 28 (the memorable 2012 collapse team)

4.33 age 33 with the Cubs

He was 3.21 to 3.47 from ages 25-27 and 3.75 at age 29 (2013)

2.46 age 30 (traded to OAK)

3.34 age 32

2.44 age 33

4.33 age 34 (His WHIP has been over 1.30 the last 3 years ages 33-35, but he has improved his ERA since 2017's 4.33 mark:

3.32

3.74

He seems to have improved after the blip.

 

C Sale: 1.93 to 3.41 every year until age 30: 4.27 currently. The rest is a huge Q mark.

 

Peavy: Jake has been all over the map, reinventing himself several times:

2.27

2.28

4.09 age 25

2.54

2.85

3.45

4.63 and 4.92 ages 29-30

3.37 age 31

4.17 age 32

Improved to 3.73 and 3.58 at ages 33-34 before finishing his career with a 5.54 ERA at age 35. Again, a pitcher showing you can improve after meltdown seasons.

 

Price: 2.45 to 3.49 every year after age 23, 3.99 & highest WHIP at age 30, then 3.24-3.58 the next 3 years (his last 2 years under his career WHIP)

 

Lackey: Injuries messed up his progression.

3.44 to 3.83 ages 26-30

4.40 age 31 w BOS

6.41 age 32 BOS (pitched while hurt, IMO)

Missed year age 33

3.52 age 34 (2013)

3.82 age 34 (traded)

2.77 age 35

3.35 age 36

4.59 age 38 (last season)

Another example of a pitcher regaining form after a meltdown in his early 30's.

 

Most of the best pitchers showed some late improvements after dipping in the early 30's.

 

Edited July 14, 2019 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Has he hit over 97 this year or is that his max? But yes it’s sad to see.

 

He has hit 97 in several games, but his overall velocity is down:

 

2019: Mostly been around 94.

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2019&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

 

2018: Mostly 96-97 Hitting 100 several games) until he came back from the DL

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2018&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

 

2017: Mostly around 95 but dipped to 93-94 mid season

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2017&end=2017&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

 

 

[TylerD]

He has hit 97 in several games, but his overall velocity is down:

 

2019: Mostly been around 94.

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2019&end=2019&rtype=mult>1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

 

2018: Mostly 96-97 Hitting 100 several games) until he came back from the DL

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2018&end=2018&rtype=mult>1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

 

2017: Mostly around 95 but dipped to 93-94 mid season

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2017&end=2017&rtype=mult>1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

 

 

 

And it remains to be seen if he’s doing this maybe to save his arm because of an injury? We still don’t know 100 percent.

[Slasher9]

I think he just needs more “rest” days.????

[moonslav59]

Make him the closer and Eovaldi the #4.

(Sarcasm alert.)

 

[OH FOY]

Chris Sale 2016

Chris Sale 2019

 

What do you see different? I see it.

Edited July 14, 2019 by OH FOY!

[Swiharts Ghost]

Chris Sale 2016

Chris Sale 2019

 

What do you see different? I see it.

 

Sale is fine He's just not an ace he's a number 3 if not a closer and maybe a fantastic one at that .We all get older and we all make adjustments in our careers he's just at a crossroads like everyone of us go through .Chris is no longer an Ace so what let's figure out what he is and go from there .He is worth it .

[moonslav59]

Chris can become an ace again. Look at the list of aces below and see how many rebounded after a meltdown season. Almost all but King Felix.

[TylerD]

Easy question here. No.

 

Fair enough but his velocity is way down and his command his last handful of starts is way off. I hope he rebounds this season or for sure next but this is far from the Chris Sale we are used to.

[Kimmi]

I look at his history from last year, and the teams he faced +innings. Has to be injury related.

On July 11th the Sox shut him down for 11 Days.

Came back on July 22 and faced Detroit, went 6 innings did OK.

Then he went right back on regular turn then, it started.

Came back on July 27th faced the Twins, went 6 innings did good, but Sox shut him down for another 2 weeks.

Aug. 12th came back and went 5 innings, 1 hit ball against the O's.

Then shut down for 30 days.

Sept. 11th 1 inning Toronto

Sept. 16 against the Mets went 3 innings, trying to build the shoulder.

Sept. 21 against Cleveland went 3.1 innings.

Sept. 26 against O's went 4.2 innings, and got hit pretty hard.

From July 27th to Sept 26th, pitched a total of 23 innings.

Throw out that 1 inning that he pitched to win it, Sale had a 4.40 ERA, in the Play-offs last year.

The last 3 Months wouldn't you have a little concern that something might have gotten by the Red Sox Doctors.

It has continued, and Sale is the last guy who will say something especially after signing good extension. Not that he's a bad person trying to get over on the Sox. The guy will go out there with no arm.

I think something got by our Doctors. I would get 2nd opinion. Tears happen that you don't see.

3 Month Shut-Down then whole Off Season shut down, and he has declined.

Has to be injury, too good of a Pitcher for too long, for this to suddenly happen.

 

I don't know. I have a really hard time believing the Sox would allow him to pitch if they knew he was injured, and I have a hard time believing that Sale would continue to go out there and stink if he was injured. I don't think he'd hide an injury.

 

Don't the trainers do strength tests regularly, and wouldn't an injury somehow show up in those strength tests?

 

Now it could be the case where Sale has slightly altered his mechanics, maybe without even realizing it, due to fear of re-injury.

[vegasbob]

Chris Sale 2016

Chris Sale 2019

 

What do you see different? I see it.

 

In the 2016 video, his teammates were White Sox players. In 2019 , they were Red Sox players, who rarely supported him with timely hitting.

[jung]

He can;t throw his slider effectively. That is the most pressing concern and the thing that is exposing everything else that is at issue for him. Losing velo was bound to happen. There was nothing inevitable about losing the command of his Slider and the confidence in it. But that is what has happened.

 

Its no accident that Sales stints now all end in an avalanche of FB's until Cora comes out and rescues him.

[moonslav59]

He can;t throw his slider effectively. That is the most pressing concern and the thing that is exposing everything else that is at issue for him. Losing velo was bound to happen. There was nothing inevitable about losing the command of his Slider and the confidence in it. But that is what has happened.

 

Its no accident that Sales stints now all end in an avalanche of FB's until Cora comes out and rescues him.

 

I agree, and there has been other times in his career where his velo is 93-95, and he was still effective. Maybe it's the new balls. It seems slider pitchers are having a hard time this year as the breaks are not as much as they used to be.

 

Sale needs to adjust.

 

I think he will. I just don't know how long it will take. 1 game, 1 month, 1 year or longer?

[SCM33]

Sale is throwing WAYYYYYY too hard to say hes past his prime. His delivery is very quirky. He needs to figure out what hes doing wrong with his mechanics.

[notin]

I agree, and there has been other times in his career where his velo is 93-95, and he was still effective. Maybe it's the new balls. It seems slider pitchers are having a hard time this year as the breaks are not as much as they used to be.

 

Sale needs to adjust.

 

I think he will. I just don't know how long it will take. 1 game, 1 month, 1 year or longer?

 

Shut him down!!

[illinoisredsox]

Shut him down!!

 

You’re doing a lousy SwihartsGhost imitation.

[jacksonianmarch]

Sale is throwing WAYYYYYY too hard to say hes past his prime. His delivery is very quirky. He needs to figure out what hes doing wrong with his mechanics.

 

There’s a difference between throwing 97 and overthrowing 97. When Sale threw 97 during the heat of last summer, he was dotting it to the corners or above the zone. Now it’s middle middle or way out of the zone leading to good swings and easy takes. Also, Sale has been throwing 97 in the first inning then not seeing it again until his next start. He needs to take the offseason to transition to a more backwards, command first approach. He will also need to sharpen up the change and probably add a cutter. He is still racking up K’s at the lower velocity, so it isn’t like he doesn’t have great stuff still. He just needs to avoid the challenge pitches that he used to get away with. More often than not, the batter is up to the challenge now

[OH FOY]

In 2015 he had a similar season to this one. Reason, only season where Left Handed batters hit better then Right handed ones.

He kills left handed hitters.

This season they are hitting .261 RHB's .222

2015 LHB's .250 RHB's .230

Only 2 season where LHB's hit him better then RHB's.

He did something then, he should look at video back on that season.

[TylerD]

Maybe this thread should have been about Porcello:(

[Kimmi]

Maybe this thread should have been about Porcello:(

 

IMO, Sale and Porcello are very similar in their mental makeups. They are both fierce competitors who are their own toughest critics. I appreciate that they don't make excuses.

They may both be past their prime, they may not be. Porcello, like Sale, is going to work very hard to figure out how to do a better job.

[TylerD]

IMO, Sale and Porcello are very similar in their mental makeups. They are both fierce competitors who are their own toughest critics. I appreciate that they don't make excuses.

They may both be past their prime, they may not be. Porcello, like Sale, is going to work very hard to figure out how to do a better job.

 

That second inning made Porcello go from Bruce Banner to The Hulk. :)

[jung]

Sale is now overthrowing to hit FB velo that he had naturally early in his career, which is why he is throwing so many FB's so far off the plate that hitters don't offer or throws them wild in the strike zone. If he can locate 94-95, I think he will be in better shape than if he throws 97 wildly. I am beginning to think overthrowing the FB is effecting the command of his Slider.

 

Overthrowing is really destructive to a pitcher's entire effort on the mound. He might be "thinking" its OK. Its really not. Sale will be hard to convince that he is struggling with 97 though it is fairly obvious that he is.

[OH FOY]

Sunday big game for our boys, and Chris.

Reason win today, we need to sweep the Yanks with our Ace going.

Lose today CANNOT have the Yanks come back to even series after 2 wins in first 2 games. With our Ace going.

Sunday is the True Statement game.

Its huge. Might be the most important game of the year to this point.

Edited July 27, 2019 by OH FOY!

[notin]

Sunday big game for our boys, and Chris.

Reason win today, we need to sweep the Yanks with our Ace going.

Lose today CANNOT have the Yanks come back to even series after 2 wins in first 2 games. With our Ace going.

Sunday is the True Statement game.

Its huge. Might be the most important game of the year to this point.

 

The Sox are still in third place, 9 games back, with only 57 to play.

 

The division would be awesome. But the Wild Card might be more realistic...

[OH FOY]

I get that, but when the other team has been beating the snot out of you all season, its time to send a message to them, if you get them in the Play-offs. Its about the mind more then the standings.

If they come back from losing first 2, I wouldn't worry about you.

If you sweep them, then they know they will be in a fight, if we meet in the Play-offs.

Sports is not all about stats. Got to win this series at least, when you come to our Park.

Edited July 27, 2019 by OH FOY!

[cp176]

IMO, Sale and Porcello are very similar in their mental makeups. They are both fierce competitors who are their own toughest critics. I appreciate that they don't make excuses.

They may both be past their prime, they may not be. Porcello, like Sale, is going to work very hard to figure out how to do a better job.

 

 

their mental makeups possibly can be compared but that of course is it. In terms of talent as well as accomplishments, they are and have always been light years apart. I like Porcello but his potential can be replaced. Sale's cannot.