A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[Michigan adam]

How about pitching lol....How I wished for average years for the top 5....

[moonslav59]

Splits per 650 PAs

 

vs RHPs

.264 40 124 Moreland

.332 32 118 Devers

.318 30 104 Bogey

.302 29 87 Betts

.226 28 75 JBJ

.261 26 104 Swihart

.273 24 84 JD

.266 23 98 Chavis

.269 22 83 Vaz

.271 17 70 Marco

.214 14 29 Travis

.270 12 63 Beni

.193 12 57 Leon

 

vs LHPs

.397 75 155 JD

.226 46 99 Chavis

.267 35 120 Bogey

.232 35 93 Travis

.266 33 75 Vazquez

.188 28 76 Leon

.276 23 90 Devers

.271 19 103 Beni

.271 19 43 Betts

.213 12 52 JBJ

.100 0 108 Owings

.244 0 56 Holt

 

 

HRs at Home per 650 PAs

40 JD

36 Betts

35 Bogey

33 Moreland

29 Chavis

27 Devers

24 Leon

23 Travis

20 JBJ

19 Beni

19 Vaz

 

Away

43 JD

39 Devers

35 Bogey

32 Chavis

30 Vaz

27 Moreland

25 Betts

23 JBJ

14 Marco & Travis

13 Beni

 

2nd Half

49 JD

43 Betts

41 Bogey

38 Devers

28 JBJ

24 Leon

23 Travis

19 Beni

18 Chavis

15 Vaz

 

Late & Close

65 Marco

55 Moreland

36 Betts

33 Bogey

25 Chavis

23 Vaz

19 Devers

16 Holt

14 Beni

13 JBJ

13 JD

 

 

 

[jung]

Ahhhh yes....won't it be nice to someday not have the burden as a Sox fan of "hoping" JBJ can hit the magical .250 BA? As we all knew, he is just as hopeless against RH pitchers as he is against LH pitchers. And there it is in black and white....a real accomplishment.

[moonslav59]

Ahhhh yes....won't it be nice to someday not have the burden as a Sox fan of "hoping" JBJ can hit the magical .250 BA? As we all knew, he is just as hopeless against RH pitchers as he is against LH pitchers. And there it is in black and white....a real accomplishment.

 

I don't get the fascination with BA. OBP and SLG are so much more telling- not that JBJ's OBP is all that great, but it is decent enough to support his fantastic defense. He also has decent power.

 

While JBJ has only gone over .250 once (.267 in 2016) and came close once or twice (.249 and .245), he's had pretty good OBPs several times:

.349 in 2016

.335 in 2015

.323 in 2017

.320 this year

 

He doesn't ground into DPs very often (11 in his last 1040+ PAs).

 

2015 to 2019 numbers per 650 PAs

 

.244 23 80 (40 2B+3B and 12 SB)

.328 OBP

.436 SLG

.764 OPS

[oldtimer]

I don't get the fascination with BA. OBP and SLG are so much more telling- not that JBJ's OBP is all that great, but it is decent enough to support his fantastic defense. He also has decent power.

 

While JBJ has only gone over .250 once (.267 in 2016) and came close once or twice (.249 and .245), he's had pretty good OBPs several times:

.349 in 2016

.335 in 2015

.323 in 2017

.320 this year

 

He doesn't ground into DPs very often (11 in his last 1040+ PAs).

 

2015 to 2019 numbers per 650 PAs

 

.244 23 80 (40 2B+3B and 12 SB)

.328 OBP

.436 SLG

.764 OPS

 

Please! We have been down this path for years now. JBJ is getting more expensive but is the same streaky hitter he has always been. We need salary relief and certainly he is one who will be targeted to help us with that next season.

[moonslav59]

Please! We have been down this path for years now. JBJ is getting more expensive but is the same streaky hitter he has always been. We need salary relief and certainly he is one who will be targeted to help us with that next season.

 

JBJ is my favorite player, but I have said numerous time, I would not pay what the estimated arb will be. My post was not in defense of bringing him back. It was about the over emphasis on BA.

 

I came out against an idea a poster suggested that we extend him at $21M/3.

 

I'd be against $10M/2, if that was enough to put us over the luxury tax in 2020. If we can keep him and reset, I'm all for keeping him.

 

If we trade Betts or JD, I'd be interested in keeping JBJ, but not at near his likely arb number.

 

[oldtimer]

On another note, Beni is in a terrible slump hitting .043 in his last 7 games and even his last 15 look extremely weak. He had made an adjustment to his stance and leg kick and it paid off for him. then, his swing got long as though he was trying to go long based on his brief success. Now he seems to have lost his confidence. I would hope our hitting coach has been working with him as he has too much talent to go into a total swoon. I'll be watching him tonight as he is one of the young guys we will need to rely on going forward.

[Slasher9]

Worrying about offense from our elite defense #9 hitter is absurdly tiresome.

[OH FOY]

Combining Stats always has me skeptical. Rather compare each stat separately. Then I can rally compare the true stat.

Combining number shows me at least you can play with numbers.

Guy has a terrible BA, but a good OPS has me skeptical.

What is it, can he hit, or cant he? Can he do the simple thing of making Contact.

If all your looking at is Power, then that is too one dimensional to me.

Can you imagine all these Great hitters who could do both hit for Average and Power, did just one thing, swing for the fences.

Ted Williams probably never hit .400+

Mays and Aaron hit 900 HRS.

Boggs and Carew probably 30+ HRS guys, Rose at least 20.

Don't go by slump, go if he is 1 for 20, go by if the one hit was a HR, and he had 7 walks within those 20 at bats, with 8 strikeouts.

Then look for how many Left On Base for those 20 at bats. Because batter didn't make contact. Which lead to losses.

Just as soon look at all separately, did that for years.

Not too hard to figure out.

Edited September 15, 2019 by OH FOY!

[OH FOY]

Here a Top 10 HOF's to ever play the game. One of the best. Vital to 3 WS Championships.

OPS .784

BA. .303

Career

What is it?

One of the greatest thing about baseball, is you can be a great Ballplayer, and a winner, without just hitting for Power.

He'll you can vital if you don't hit but play Great Defense.

Edited September 15, 2019 by OH FOY!

[jung]

Worrying about offense from our elite defense #9 hitter is absurdly tiresome.

 

It isn't if we are going to pitch next year as we have down the stretch this year. If its going to be ERod and pray for 4 days of rain, suddenly an elite defender in CF becomes less valuable compared to a good one with a decent bat. Heck we don't really even know if ERod can repeat 2019 in 2020. We are awash in pitching issues and when a team is awash in pitching issues suddenly these guys that can produce 1 for 25 and 2 for 50 slumps at the plate have a harder time making the case for an elite glove even in CF. JBJ is not and never has been a reliable hitter at the plate or even close to a reliable hitter at the plate and I don't see a way at this point for a guy that has been doing this for a looooooooooong time to change his ways.

 

I would willingly pay 6 per maybe 7 for JBJ and not a dime more. He might not accept that. But that is all I would be offering. 6 is closer to what he might be worth at this point.

 

Then again since nobody can really say or even guess where MLB pitching is going thanks to all of their machinations, maybe keeping the everyday player composition of the team what it is makes as much sense as anything.

Edited September 15, 2019 by jung

[Bellhorn04]

Combining Stats always has me skeptical. Rather compare each stat separately. Then I can rally compare the true stat.

Combining number shows me at least you can play with numbers.

Guy has a terrible BA, but a good OPS has me skeptical.

 

JBJ is not a good hitter. No one's arguing that. But OPS does show some important things.

 

Compare JBJ's line for this year with Nunez's:

 

JBJ 220/320/411 - OPS 731

Nunez 228/243/305 - OPS 548

 

If you just looked at BA, Nunez is higher. But obviously JBJ is doing some other things-getting on base without a hit, and getting some extra-base hits, that make his overall production better.

[notin]

I would willingly pay 6 per maybe 7 for JBJ and not a dime more. He might not accept that. But that is all I would be offering. 6 is closer to what he might be worth at this point.

 

JBJ currently makes $8.85 million. Absolutely no way he agrees to that offer. In fact, merely making that offer is all but a guarantee of paying JBJ higher.

 

I get that you saying what he is worth. The only way the Sox pay him that amount is if they non-tender him first...

[jung]

JBJ currently makes $8.85 million. Absolutely no way he agrees to that offer. In fact, merely making that offer is all but a guarantee of paying JBJ higher.

 

I get that you saying what he is worth. The only way the Sox pay him that amount is if they non-tender him first...

 

Yup...non-tender if they want to keep him. His Arb number will likely be $10M or more for 2020 and that is just not reasonable IMO.

[notin]

Combining Stats always has me skeptical. Rather compare each stat separately. Then I can rally compare the true stat.

 

But just comparing stats frequently allows people to lose some sense of scale. Batting average itself basically tells you everyone in the majors gets a hit between 20% and 30% of the time, and the ones who don’t are not far outside that range. ERA creates a larger misleading range, too. Sure a pitcher with a 3.50 ERA has been allowing runs at a greater pace than a pitcher with a 3.90 ERA. But how much greater? Four runs over 90 IP. Is that really a huge difference? It certainly gets treated like one by a lot of people. Heck, having a worse shortstop behind you can lead to a lot more than 4 earned runs over 90 IP...

[notin]

Yup...non-tender if they want to keep him. His Arb number will likely be $10M or more and that is just not reasonable IMO.

 

I’ve been saying all along he gets $10-12 mill and I think he should be non-tendered if they plan to reset and keep Betts...

[moonslav59]

If the plan is to reset, then even non tendering JBJ and getting him to sign for $5-7M a year might still put us over the luxury tax, or it would disallow us from signing any FAs, even minor ones.

 

[dgalehouse]

The number of injuries in MLB this year is mind boggling . I have never seen anything like it . The MLB trade rumors site should be renamed The MLB injury report . The powers that be really need to look into this situation and look for causes and solutions . This is not good for the game .

[moonslav59]

The number of injuries in MLB this year is mind boggling . I have never seen anything like it . The MLB trade rumors site should be renamed The MLB injury report . The powers that be really need to look into this situation and look for causes and solutions . This is not good for the game .

 

MLBTR should have a separate site just for injuries. They have nothing to do with trades and trade rumors.