A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[jacksonianmarch]

Britton got an audition here. By the end of the year, his velocity had increased and he showed he was worth the investment. He also didn’t get the closer opportunities he thought he would. Shrewd move by Cashman as Britton has not only been a good bridge guy, but he’s been very homer averse due to his incredible sinker, meaning he’s less likely to totally f*** a winnable game.

[oldtimer]

I looked over the remaining schedule in August and looked at what I consider a good scenario for the team, winning 11 and dropping 7. If they do that, they will be at 73 and 63. Right now both Cleveland and Minnesota are 10 fames in the loss column better than us and both the TB Rays and Oakland are 5 games better than us. Forget the first pair as too far ahead to catch and you have to hope both Oakland and Tampa Bay stumble to less than 11 and 7 in the month of August to gain ground. Possible but not likelly.

[Nick]

I looked over the remaining schedule in August and looked at what I consider a good scenario for the team, winning 11 and dropping 7. If they do that, they will be at 73 and 63. Right now both Cleveland and Minnesota are 10 fames in the loss column better than us and both the TB Rays and Oakland are 5 games better than us. Forget the first pair as too far ahead to catch and you have to hope both Oakland and Tampa Bay stumble to less than 11 and 7 in the month of August to gain ground. Possible but not likelly.

 

It's going to be difficult to overtake two teams with similar records. We still have 4 games remaining versus Tampa but no more games against the A's.

[moonslav59]

And Koji was not out of nowhere. He was an established reliever with fine numbers that Ben got a crazy good price on.

 

Yes, he had some excellent seasons before coming here, but he was our 3rd string closer when 2013 started.

 

Your point is well-taken.

[moonslav59]

Britton got an audition here. By the end of the year, his velocity had increased and he showed he was worth the investment. He also didn’t get the closer opportunities he thought he would. Shrewd move by Cashman as Britton has not only been a good bridge guy, but he’s been very homer averse due to his incredible sinker, meaning he’s less likely to totally f*** a winnable game.

 

My guess is, if Britton, like Sale, was on the Sox, you'd be pointing to an irreversible decline and near certain doom.

 

2014-2016:

1.38 ERA

2.40 FIP

0.909 WHIP

9.2 K/9

2.4 BB/9

3.91 K/BB

0.3 HR/9

 

2017-2019

2.74 ERA (2.30 in 2019)

3.92 FIP (4.09 in 2019)

1.320 WHIP (1.24 in '19)

7.3 K/9 (7.3 in '19)

4.6 BB/9 (4.8 in '19)

1.58 K/BB (1.52)

0.5 HR/9 (0.6)

 

Only his ERA is better than his EVAN last 3 year norm.

 

Ottavino is having a great season, especially with his ERA (1.41), but many of his numbers have declined from 2018:

WHIP: 0.991 to 1.275 (Very big rise)

FIP: 2.74 to 3.37 (significant rise)

BB/9: 4.2 to 5.5 (significant rise)

K/9: 13.0 to 12.4 (very slight)

K/BB: 3.1 to 2.3 (significant)

H/9:4.8 to 6.0 (25% rise)

HR/9: 0.6 to 0.7 (slight but still a 17% rise)

 

I'm not trying to poo-poo their records, but there are sign that they have not been as great as their ERA's suggest they have been.

[OH FOY]

It's going to be difficult to overtake two teams with similar records. We still have 4 games remaining versus Tampa but no more games against the A's.

 

Plus Tampa has easier schedule then us. They play only 17 games with teams over .500, we play 21.

[OH FOY]

It's going to be difficult to overtake two teams with similar records. We still have 4 games remaining versus Tampa but no more games against the A's.

 

Your 100% correct though, you have to hope 2 teams lose simultaneously, while we win. Last night both won and we won, 1 less game in schedule. That's why losses with less games to play are killers.

[moonslav59]

Run Differential Leaders

 

182 LAD

164 HOU

153 NYY

128 MN

97 TBR

87 OAK

85 CLE

83 Cubs

77 AZ

69 BOS (10th)

62 ATL

45 WSH

33 CIN

14 NYM

12 STL

 

How about the differential between 2018 and 2019 (2019 not over):

 

+165 MN

+28 AZ

+27 TBR

-10 LAD

-21 NYY

-32 Cubs

-50 OAK

-70 CLE

-106 HOU

-191 BOS

(List only includes the top 10 in 2019.)

 

[fxkatt]

The LOSS column is what counts more than anything right now. At the moment we have 57, Oak/TB both have 50. My projection of a 93 win season is quickly waning because that would mean 69 losses. Oak/TB have a shot at this number, but I doubt we do... just can't see a winning streak with this pitching staff... we're not the Mets in that regard.

[Nick]

Porcello, who was brilliant for a long stretch, took the loss after allowing five runs on five hits in five-plus innings. He fell to 10-9 and his ERA rose to 5.67.

 

$22M Benefactor pitched 5 innings and gave up 5 ERs. Why do we keep babying the guy? He's had a horrible year. It's a bad pitching day. Say it. He was brilliant?

[S5Dewey]

Porcello, who was brilliant for a long stretch, took the loss after allowing five runs on five hits in five-plus innings. He fell to 10-9 and his ERA rose to 5.67.

 

$22M Benefactor pitched 5 innings and gave up 5 ERs. Why do we keep babying the guy? He's had a horrible year. It's a bad pitching day. Say it. He was brilliant?

 

Disclaimer: I didn't see the game. This is what I've gleaned from the box score.

 

It looks like Porcillo gave up 3 runs in the first, then settled in and pitched four scoreless innings giving up a total of five hits. Unfortunately two of them were HR's. He's always been plagued by the gopher ball but usually they're solo shots. This guy's got to get his act together if the Sox are going to get back into any semblance of the fray.

[moonslav59]

Starts with 5 or more runs allowed:

 

Porcello 10 out of 24 (13 out of 24 with 4+)

2018: 6 out of 33 (12 out of 33 with 4+)

 

C Sale: 7 out of 24 (12 out of 24 with 4+)

2018: 1 out of 27 (2 out of 27 with 4+, back-to-back May-June)

 

D Price: 4 out of 21 (7/21 with 4+)

2018: 4 out of 30 (7/30 with 4+)

 

Together, the "big 3" went from 21 out of 90 in 2018 to 28 out of 69!

 

That's from 12% in 2018 to 41% this year.

 

They've let up 4 or more runs 59% of their starts.

 

ERod has let up 5+ in 5 of 23 and 4+ in 10 of 23. Last year, it was 6 out of 23, but no games with 4 runs allowed.

 

I'm too scared to look up our 5th starters' numbers.

 

Edited August 11, 2019 by moonslav59

[Nick]

Starts with 5 or more runs allowed:

 

Porcello 10 out of 24 (13 out of 24 with 4+)

2018: 6 out of 33 (12 out of 33 with 4+)

 

C Sale: 7 out of 24 (12 out of 24 with 4+)

2018: 1 out of 27 (2 out of 27 with 4+, back-to-back May-June)

 

D Price: 4 out of 21 (7/21 with 4+)

2018: 4 out of 30 (7/30 with 4+)

 

Together, the "big 3" went from 11 out of 90 in 2018 to 28 out of 69!

 

That's from 12% in 2018 to 41% this year.

 

They've let up 4 or more runs 59% of their starts.

 

ERod has let up 5+ in 5 of 23 and 4+ in 10 of 23. Last year, it was 6 out of 23, but no games with 4 runs allowed.

 

I'm too scared to look up our 5th starters' numbers.

 

 

Together, the "big 3" went from 11 out of 90 in 2018 to 28 out of 69!

 

Finally a stat that makes sense and easy to follow.....thanks Moon. I think that pretty much sums up our season.

[Bellhorn04]

Starts with 5 or more runs allowed:

 

Porcello 10 out of 24 (13 out of 24 with 4+)

2018: 6 out of 33 (12 out of 33 with 4+)

 

C Sale: 7 out of 24 (12 out of 24 with 4+)

2018: 1 out of 27 (2 out of 27 with 4+, back-to-back May-June)

 

D Price: 4 out of 21 (7/21 with 4+)

2018: 4 out of 30 (7/30 with 4+)

 

Together, the "big 3" went from 11 out of 90 in 2018 to 28 out of 69!

 

Looks like that should be 21 out of 69. Still brutal.

[Bellhorn04]

Also, Price is a much smaller culprit than the other two. If you narrow it to Sale and Porcello: those two went from 7 out of 60 to 17 out of 48.

[jung]

Also, Price is a much smaller culprit than the other two. If you narrow it to Sale and Porcello: those two went from 7 out of 60 to 17 out of 48.

 

One stat rarely tells the story. Price has only pitched 105 innings so far this year. Porcello has pitched 133 and Sale has pitched 140.

 

I would think it hard to step out onto the platform of this starter has been better than the other two. All three have basically sucked. We can dance around that all we want. They have had subpar years right in the face of the organization having designed the club to be most reliant on them.

[OH FOY]

Funny thing is all we needed was 1 to step up, and have the Stoppers mentality. We would be in it. At least for WC.

[Bellhorn04]

One stat rarely tells the story. Price has only pitched 105 innings so far this year. Porcello has pitched 133 and Sale has pitched 140.

 

I would think it hard to step out onto the platform of this starter has been better than the other two. All three have basically sucked. We can dance around that all we want. They have had subpar years right in the face of the organization having designed the club to be most reliant on them.

 

No doubt about it.

 

Sale-I think will bounce back next year.

Porcello-is gone.

Price-no idea, he's an enigma.

[S5Dewey]

No doubt about it.

 

Sale-I think will bounce back next year.

Porcello-is gone.

Price-no idea, he's an enigma.

 

Yep, yep, and yep.

 

It's too bad about Porcillo, too. He's been an innings eater with a reasonable ERA. If he could get through 6 innings with an ERA of ~5.00 he would be giving up just under 3.5 runs per appearance. That's very satisfactory for a #3 guy, especially when he's pitching for one of the best offenses in baseball.

 

Oh well. :-(

[moonslav59]

Looks like that should be 21 out of 69. Still brutal.

 

Thanks for pointing out the typo.

 

I corrected it.

[moonslav59]

One stat rarely tells the story. Price has only pitched 105 innings so far this year. Porcello has pitched 133 and Sale has pitched 140.

 

I would think it hard to step out onto the platform of this starter has been better than the other two. All three have basically sucked. We can dance around that all we want. They have had subpar years right in the face of the organization having designed the club to be most reliant on them.

 

Yes, if Price had gone 6 or 7 inning more often, he'd likely have many more 5+ runs allowed starts.

[Bellhorn04]

Yep, yep, and yep.

 

It's too bad about Porcillo, too. He's been an innings eater with a reasonable ERA. If he could get through 6 innings with an ERA of ~5.00 he would be giving up just under 3.5 runs per appearance. That's very satisfactory for a #3 guy, especially when he's pitching for one of the best offenses in baseball.

 

Oh well. :-(

 

To look at the sort-of bright side, Rick's contract expired at the right time for us.

 

Which is not to say I wouldn't like to see him have a bounceback season next year. I would.

[moonslav59]

To look at the sort-of bright side, Rick's contract expired at the right time for us.

 

Which is not to say I wouldn't like to see him have a bounceback season next year. I would.

 

Maybe had it expired one year earlier, it would have been better, but signing him only to prime years made a lot of sense 4 years back.

 

I loved the deal then, and still think it was worth it, even though this season really dragged the whole total value thing down.

[notin]

Maybe had it expired one year earlier, it would have been better, but signing him only to prime years made a lot of sense 4 years back.

 

I loved the deal then, and still think it was worth it, even though this season really dragged the whole total value thing down.

 

If it expired one year earlier, DD might have extended him. It’s not like he’s an expendable valuable relief pitcher...

[moonslav59]

If it expired one year earlier, DD might have extended him. It’s not like he’s an expendable valuable relief pitcher...

 

Good point.

 

I don't think DD was ever all that high on Porcello, though.

[notin]

Good point.

 

I don't think DD was ever all that high on Porcello, though.

 

Dombrowski did draft him and keep him on an MLB roster when Rick was only 2 years removed from high school...

[Nick]

STARTING PITCHING 1.3 IP 3 H 3 R 3 ER 5 BB 1 K

 

Well at least he didn't give up 5 runs....

[Bellhorn04]

STARTING PITCHING 1.3 IP 3 H 3 R 3 ER 5 BB 1 K

 

Well at least he didn't give up 5 runs....

 

Would you believe that when we signed Cashner he had a 1.41 ERA in his last 5 starts?

 

His ERA in a Sox uniform is about 8.

[notin]

Would you believe that when we signed Cashner he had a 1.41 ERA in his last 5 starts?

 

His ERA in a Sox uniform is about 8.

 

8.01.

 

The teenage non-pitchers the Sox traded for him might not be that ineffective...

[moonslav59]

STARTING PITCHING 1.3 IP 3 H 3 R 3 ER 5 BB 1 K

 

Well at least he didn't give up 5 runs....

 

This got me thinking.

 

I listed how many times our top 4 SP'ers let up 4 or 5+ runs. What about games like today's?

 

New criteria: games with 5+ ERs, 4+ in 5 or less inning, 3+ in 4 or less, 2+ in 3 or less...

 

11 out of 24 in Porcello starts (+2 times with 4 runs in 6 IP)

 

9 out of 24 in Sale starts (+2 times with 4 runs in 6 IP)

 

5 out of 21 in Price starts (+2 times with 4 runs in 6 IP and 1 with 0 in 0.2 IP)

 

5 out of 23 in ERod starts (+2 with 4 in 5.1 IP or 4 in 5.2 IP)

 

Porcello + Sale= 20 out of 48

 

Top 4: 30 out of 72