A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[Carpin]

Trout seems to be in a class of his own.

 

The scary part is that he gets better every single season,

[moonslav59]

I agree with you on Betts, but I don't see the Astros picking Devers (bWAR 4.0, OPS+ 133) over Bregman (bWAR 5.3, OPS+ 147) or Bogaerts (bWAR 3.8, OPS+ 141) over Correa (bWAR 2.8, OPS+ 143),

 

They could take one and play them elsewhere (DH, Devers at 1B?)

[Bellhorn04]

The scary part is that he gets better every single season,

 

I hope he stays on the Angels. But I hope he gets to play in a World Series or two.

[OH FOY]

They could take one and play them elsewhere (DH, Devers at 1B?)

 

Of course but they are not sitting Gurriel that's for sure hottest hitter in the Majors at the moment. Last 30 days hitting .368, think he got 8 RBI's. last night.

[Carpin]

They could take one and play them elsewhere (DH, Devers at 1B?)

 

That's for sure, if you pick the best nine they will fit in, but as you said they'll have to move them out of position, then it comes to the equation people like Gurriel, JD or Jordan Alvarez (OPS+ 193 with a small sample size)

[moonslav59]

Of course but they are not sitting Gurriel that's for sure hottest hitter in the Majors at the moment. Last 30 days hitting .368, think he got 8 RBI's. last night.

 

They'd sit him tonight for Devers, assuming Devers could play 1B tonight.

 

Either Devers or Bogey could DH.

[notin]

He's part of that small second group which can challenge Trout for it, along with Bellinger, Betts, Yelich, Arenado and a couple more

 

I like the list, but I would remove Arenado, whose elite status is a bit dependent on his home ballpark...

[Carpin]

They'd sit him tonight for Devers, assuming Devers could play 1B tonight.

 

Either Devers or Bogey could DH.

 

Would you pick them over JD or Alvarez?

[notin]

I hope he stays on the Angels. But I hope he gets to play in a World Series or two.

 

A $430mill contract is, at the very least, a partial no-trade clause...

[Bellhorn04]

A $430mill contract is, at the very least, a partial no-trade clause...

 

It certainly removes all but a few teams from even thinking about it, if the Halos ever do decide to move his contract.

[jacksonianmarch]

It certainly removes all but a few teams from even thinking about it, if the Halos ever do decide to move his contract.

 

There's zero chance he is moving. They're trying to build out there and once Pujols comes off the books, they'll have some capital to extend Ohtani

[Kimmi]

But with the Sox, after Barnes and Workman (who would not have been considered a reliable “go to” any other season), the drop off is fast and steep. Who would you say is the third best arm out there? That Josh Taylor is in the argument only proves my point...

 

With this philosophy, you need a lot of depth. You keep throwing arms out there until you find the ones that work. They are out there for cheap.

 

Also, you need your starters to not necessitate the misuse and overuse of the pen.

[notin]

With this philosophy, you need a lot of depth. You keep throwing arms out there until you find the ones that work. They are out there for cheap.

 

Also, you need your starters to not necessitate the misuse and overuse of the pen.

 

I’d say there was a time when 3 reliable arms made for a good bullpen, but with shortened starter workloads, I think more are needed now. It’s a bullpen game...

[Bellhorn04]

With this philosophy, you need a lot of depth. You keep throwing arms out there until you find the ones that work. They are out there for cheap.

 

I think there is a real risk that none of the dumpster dives will amount to anything. You could produce a pretty lengthy list of dumpster dive pitchers the Red Sox have acquired over the years, and not a lot of them were successful.

 

Theo himself has used a philosophy of allocating a fair chunk of money to the bullpen.

[Kimmi]

I’d say there was a time when 3 reliable arms made for a good bullpen, but with shortened starter workloads, I think more are needed now. It’s a bullpen game...

 

That's fair, but the team was not counting on such a reduced starter workload this season. It was built around having a strong rotation that would get relatively deep into most games.

[notin]

I think there is a real risk that none of the dumpster dives will amount to anything. You could produce a pretty lengthy list of dumpster dive pitchers the Red Sox have acquired over the years, and not a lot of them were successful.

 

Theo himself has used a philosophy of allocating a fair chunk of money to the bullpen.

 

The “dumpster dive” method is absolutely a numbers game. It’s nice when it works, but rarely does any pitcher get an extended opportunity. Got to make a good impression fast...

[Kimmi]

I think there is a real risk that none of the dumpster dives will amount to anything. You could produce a pretty lengthy list of dumpster dive pitchers the Red Sox have acquired over the years, and not a lot of them were successful.

 

Theo himself has used a philosophy of allocating a fair chunk of money to the bullpen.

 

There is also the same risk of the expensive arms not amounting to anything. Take a look at all of the busts this year, including Kimbrel so far.

 

The task is to find the inexpensive arms that will not be busts. They are out there.

[Kimmi]

The “dumpster dive” method is absolutely a numbers game. It’s nice when it works, but rarely does any pitcher get an extended opportunity. Got to make a good impression fast...

 

But the best relievers often come out of nowhere.

[notin]

That's fair, but the team was not counting on such a reduced starter workload this season. It was built around having a strong rotation that would get relatively deep into most games.

 

They certainly hoped for that, but I don’t really think they ever had the three reliable arms. Barnes has been up and down. Brasier was a mistake to be counted on. Workman and Walden have been a pleasant surprises. But have the Sox had a stretch yet this year when three relievers were all pitching well at once?

[moonslav59]

Would you pick them over JD or Alvarez?

 

Easily, yes.

[Bellhorn04]

There is also the same risk of the expensive arms not amounting to anything. Take a look at all of the busts this year, including Kimbrel so far.

 

The task is to find the inexpensive arms that will not be busts. They are out there.

 

When you're the Red Sox, those arms seem to be elusive devils. If you go back over our pitching stat sheets each year, you won't find many of these out of nowhere relievers who did well over any significant period.

[moonslav59]

When you're the Red Sox, those arms seem to be elusive devils. If you go back over our pitching stat sheets each year, you won't find many of these out of nowhere relievers who did well over any significant period.

 

Koji may be the only one.

[moonslav59]

Top FA RP'er Signings This Year

 

$14.3M x 3 Kimbrel 5.68 ERA/12.2 IP on IL

$13.0M x 3 Britton 2.30/1.23 WHIP in 47 IP

$10.0M x 3 Familia 6.69/1.89 in 38 IP

$9.00M x 3 Ottavino 1.41/1.275 in 51 IP

$12.5M x 2 A Miller 3.86/1.29 in 37 IP

$8.33M x 3 Joe Kelly 4.85/1.44 in 39 IP

$11.5M x 2 Robertson 5.40/2.10 in just 7 IP

$9.00M x 2 Herrera 7.36/1.82 in 33 IP

$7.50M x 2 J Soria 4.44/1.06 in 53 IP

$8.50M x 1 C Allen 6.26/1.91 in 23 IP

 

[Nick]

Top FA RP'er Signings This Year

 

$14.3M x 3 Kimbrel 5.68 ERA/12.2 IP on IL

$13.0M x 3 Britton 2.30/1.23 WHIP in 47 IP

$10.0M x 3 Familia 6.69/1.89 in 38 IP

$9.00M x 3 Ottavino 1.41/1.275 in 51 IP

$12.5M x 2 A Miller 3.86/1.29 in 37 IP

$8.33M x 3 Joe Kelly 4.85/1.44 in 39 IP

$11.5M x 2 Robertson 5.40/2.10 in just 7 IP

$9.00M x 2 Herrera 7.36/1.82 in 33 IP

$7.50M x 2 J Soria 4.44/1.06 in 53 IP

$8.50M x 1 C Allen 6.26/1.91 in 23 IP

 

 

So many Monday morning quarterbacks here.....Had we done the 'right thing' and say Sox had signed Kelly, then there's another $8M mistake this year and perhaps two more years. Our bullpen payroll is less than $10M. We're not 5.5 games out of wildcard spot because of the pen. It's still all about our starters. Chris Sale of old could have put us firmly in the wild card spot.

 

Anyone remember how good this group was going to be? Sale, Price, E Rod, Eovaldi and Porcello?

 

By the way, at what point do we move away from Johnson? When I looked up correct spelling for 'mediocre', his face pops up. Doing the same old s*** over and over and expecting different outcome is true definition of stupidity. An organization with the highest payroll doesn't have a guy any better than Johnson?

Edited August 10, 2019 by Nick

[notin]

So many Monday morning quarterbacks here.....Had we done the 'right thing' and say Sox had signed Kelly, then there's another $8M mistake this year and perhaps two more years. Our bullpen payroll is less than $10M. We're not 5.5 games out of wildcard spot because of the pen. It's still all about our starters. Chris Sale of old could have put us firmly in the wild card.

 

I’d say the bullpen has contributed to their share of losses. They do have 20 blown saves on the season, many of which have resulted in losses...

[Maxbialystock]

I’d say the bullpen has contributed to their share of losses. They do have 20 blown saves on the season, many of which have resulted in losses...

 

Perhaps. I think the primary fault is with the rotation, which has been awful, top to bottom, whereas last year they were solid until late in the season.

 

That said, just about everyone on talksox scoffed at how last year the Rays used their bullpen so much. Sometimes a reliever would start, and so on. Well, last night Johnson, who has started before, was pulled in the 3d inning and the Sox behind 3-0. In came Walden to finish the 3d and pitch the 4th and 5th, followed by Eovaldi for 2 more innings and giving up the 4th run, which by then was almost meaningless although they GIDP sure came in handy.

 

Then there's the Yankees rotation, which is almost as bad as ours, but they have an excellent bullpen which makes a real difference. Cora compensates slightly for his mediocre bullpen by carrying 13 pitchers vs. last year when he carried 12-- and 11 in the postseason.

 

We all know that decades ago starters often pitched complete games, but now it's a rarity. Let's not forget that in the interim MLB lowered the mound and this year the seams on the baseball, both with the express purpose of generating more offense under the assumption that's what brings the fans to games.

 

The point is that the lines between starters and relievers are increasingly blurred. Last year the large investment in the rotation, including the addition of Eovaldi, seemed justified. This year, not--but the investment was already made.

 

Thus, I think DD did it about right even though I agree the bullpen hasn't been so hot. By not adding bullpen help on 31 July, he was telling our high-price rotation to earn their pay, which they certainly have not done this year.

Edited August 10, 2019 by Maxbialystock

[Bellhorn04]

Koji may be the only one.

 

And Koji was not out of nowhere. He was an established reliever with fine numbers that Ben got a crazy good price on.

[oldtimer]

Top FA RP'er Signings This Year

 

$14.3M x 3 Kimbrel 5.68 ERA/12.2 IP on IL

$13.0M x 3 Britton 2.30/1.23 WHIP in 47 IP

$10.0M x 3 Familia 6.69/1.89 in 38 IP

$9.00M x 3 Ottavino 1.41/1.275 in 51 IP

$12.5M x 2 A Miller 3.86/1.29 in 37 IP

$8.33M x 3 Joe Kelly 4.85/1.44 in 39 IP

$11.5M x 2 Robertson 5.40/2.10 in just 7 IP

$9.00M x 2 Herrera 7.36/1.82 in 33 IP

$7.50M x 2 J Soria 4.44/1.06 in 53 IP

$8.50M x 1 C Allen 6.26/1.91 in 23 IP

 

 

Is there a correlation, as the ones who have done better went to the Yankees.

[Bellhorn04]

Is there a correlation, as the ones who have done better went to the Yankees.

 

Cashman made a couple of solid picks there, plus letting Robertson go.

[notin]

Is there a correlation, as the ones who have done better went to the Yankees.

 

Or... and hear me out.. no.

 

One was coming back from an injury-recovery season and the other was leaving Colorado...