A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[jung]

Barnes is a solid reliever if not overused....and turns into a pumpkin if overused. I don't even know why this would be a question.

[Slasher9]

 

This site is getting loopy.

 

i think that started when some declared Cora the greatest manager in Sox history after 1 season.

[notin]

I went to bed last night wondering the same thing and then realized he was talking about D Hernandez. I certainly agree that he is our besst hope for getting a starter from our prospect list. Just needs to be more consistent with location. If he was with the Astros, he would already be better, they have a knack with their pitchers .

 

He’s certainly our best hope because of the GM who doesn’t gamble on waiver claims and asks for controllable starting pitching for Blake Swihart...

[jung]

He’s certainly our best hope because of the GM who doesn’t gamble on waiver claims and asks for controllable starting pitching for Blake Swihart...

 

Who knows how much Henry himself said NO MAS. But the only way for an owner to keep DD from emptying his bank account is to say NO MAS. DD does not come equipped with his own governor. Never has had one.

 

Heard something last night on the Talkin Baseball show that I think is possible. Henry allows DD to become a lame duck and gives him his 2020 final contract year to right the ship. If he does it, extend him with a new contract, if not, not. I actually do not think it makes sense to make DD a lame duck. It makes no sense to me to keep DD running Baseball Ops. He came in. Did his job. Got us a WS. Enough already. Like I said earlier, DD has never come equipped with a governor. But he always has had an expiration date.

 

As for the trade deadline stuff. I don't have an issue with the FO not spending at the deadline. I can see my way clear to why that was the choice they made. Its not irrational. I have a big problem with the entire Management team shooting their bigs mouths off about it. Suggests that they have utterly no idea who they have down in that clubhouse.

 

I think the smart move would have been to bring in a relief pitcher or two. They had money under the next lux tax threshold. It might not have been practically effective. But it would not have left the clubhouse in the "what the f***" mood they have been in since then.

Edited August 6, 2019 by jung

[notin]

Who knows how much Henry himself said NO MAS. But the only way for an owner to keep DD from emptying his bank account is to say NO MAS. DD does not come equipped with his own governor. Never has had one.

 

Heard something last night on the Talkin Baseball show that I think is possible. Henry allows DD to become a lame duck and gives him his 2020 final contract year to right the ship. If he does it, extend him with a new contract, if not, not. I actually do not think it makes sense to make DD a lame duck. It makes no sense to me to keep DD running Baseball Ops. He came in. Did his job. Got us a WS. Enough already. Like I said earlier, DD has never come equipped with a governor. But he always has had an expiration date.

 

As for the trade deadline stuff. I don't have an issue with the FO not spending at the deadline. I can see my way clear to why that was the choice they made. Its not irrational. I have a big problem with the entire Management team shooting their bigs mouths off about it. Suggests that they have utterly no idea who they have down in that clubhouse.

 

 

I seriously doubt Henry said NO MAS to waiver claims for players making the MLB minimum. If he did do that, your “lame duck” theory got 2020 is either incorrect or another wasted season. Certainly the directive can’t be “Fix this team or you’re fired!! And no spending money, not even on minimum wage players!”

 

Just fire Dombrowski if this is the case...

[moonslav59]

Well, he'll always have the 2018 postseason:

 

10 appearances

2 wins, 3 holds

8.2 IP

1 ER

.464 OPSa

 

I think we hold onto him and see how he does with a new pitching coach.

 

Those "headlights" were pretty bright!

[moonslav59]

Well, he'll always have the 2018 postseason:

 

10 appearances

2 wins, 3 holds

8.2 IP

1 ER

.464 OPSa

 

I think we hold onto him and see how he does with a new pitching coach.

 

Those "headlights" were pretty bright!

[moonslav59]

i think that started when some declared Cora the greatest manager in Sox history after 1 season.

 

That is a position I still hold, and time will prove the correctness of that statement.

[moonslav59]

Whole team took step backward, be hard pressed to win 88 games. That's a 20 game difference from last year. Team and Fans thought it would be a cake walk. I'm one of those Fans too. 16 in the loss column to the Yanks. Talk about Beatdown.

Yanks won 100 last year and they will win 100+ again this year, that's consistency.

 

Devers, Bogey, Vaz and Marco took steps forward.

[Bellhorn04]

Whole team took step backward, be hard pressed to win 88 games. That's a 20 game difference from last year. Team and Fans thought it would be a cake walk. I'm one of those Fans too. 16 in the loss column to the Yanks. Talk about Beatdown.

Yanks won 100 last year and they will win 100+ again this year, that's consistency.

 

I really don't think the team or the fans thought this year was going to be a 'cakewalk'.

 

I think most folks are aware that no team has gone back-to-back since the 2000 Yankees, for starters.

[jung]

I seriously doubt Henry said NO MAS to waiver claims for players making the MLB minimum. If he did do that, your “lame duck” theory got 2020 is either incorrect or another wasted season. Certainly the directive can’t be “Fix this team or you’re fired!! And no spending money, not even on minimum wage players!”

 

Just fire Dombrowski if this is the case...

 

Dropped this on the bottom of my earlier post. You might not have seen it before your post.

"I think the smart move would have been to bring in a relief pitcher or two. They had money under the next lux tax threshold. It might not have been practically effective. But it would not have left the clubhouse in the "what the f***" mood they have been in since then."

 

What they did is not irrational. The way they did it does not make any sense other than as some sort of effort to send the clubhouse some sort of message. Why so publicly and particularly in what exec management said publicly....I have no idea why that made sense. I cannot think of a scenario where that makes a hill of beans of sense. I would however include all of the uniform personnel in the "send a message" scenario if that was their intention. Might want to be sending Cora a message as well, something like don't get cute again Alex.

 

As for keeping DD, I don't think it makes sense to keep DD as my post more than suggests, not as a lame duck and not with an extension. Where the Sox are going to end up after this year would not appear to make DD an attractive candidate for the job. DD requires LOTS of money and LOTS of farm system as trade chips. The Sox won't have either. Strapped by the lux tax system and without enough on the farm to really do much. The only thing that the Sox have that fits DD's profile is a core of good players.

 

They will have money in 2020 from expiring obligations. They won't have tons. But they will have money.

 

My view, DD should be gone.

Edited August 6, 2019 by jung

[OH FOY]

I really don't think the team or the fans thought this year was going to be a 'cakewalk'.

 

I think most folks are aware that no team has gone back-to-back since the 2000 Yankees, for starters.

 

Aware of that, but you cant go from one extreme to another. Very easy 20 games difference. So now I have to think more about last year was it a fluke, happens just hot for 1 year and go back to about what you should really be.

Basically same players, not that bad in injuries. Compare to the Yanks. Seems they had the attitude we had last year, next man up.

So what is it?

Edited August 6, 2019 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

I really don't think the team or the fans thought this year was going to be a 'cakewalk'.

 

I think most folks are aware that no team has gone back-to-back since the 2000 Yankees, for starters.

 

Yes, we all knew our pen was not strong, and Price and Sale were question marks. We expected some decline from Betts & JD but hoped upticks from Devers, Vaz, Bogey & Beni might make up for it, which they did.

 

I certainly expected way better than this, but I knew the Yanks and Astros would get better, and it was not going to be a cakewalk.

 

My hope was we make the playoffs and our strong playoff record and experience would take over.

[OH FOY]

Devers, Bogey, Vaz and Marco took steps forward.

 

Except for Marco, hasn't played enough, that makes this year even more of a failure.

[dgalehouse]

Yes, we all knew our pen was not strong, and Price and Sale were question marks. We expected some decline from Betts & JD but hoped upticks from Devers, Vaz, Bogey & Beni might make up for it, which they did.

 

I certainly expected way better than this, but I knew the Yanks and Astros would get better, and it was not going to be a cakewalk.

 

My hope was we make the playoffs and our strong playoff record and experience would take over.

You said , " I think we may be even better than last year." That was way back when . Now , you are giving up .

[OH FOY]

Last year we had our Ace out basically from July to the Post-Season, 2 Catchers that didn't hit, 3rd baseman that struggled Offensively and Defensively, a Relief Pitcher from Japan, an erratic Reliever (Kelly), a CF that hit .234.

Basically a worse team then this year, and we 108 games. Luck?

No it was attitude, and never say die. Ever.

This year they thought it would be a cakewalk, and thought they could turn it on any time. Don't work that way.

[moonslav59]

Dropped this on the bottom of my earlier post. You might not have seen it before your post.

"I think the smart move would have been to bring in a relief pitcher or two. They had money under the next lux tax threshold. It might not have been practically effective. But it would not have left the clubhouse in the "what the f***" mood they have been in since then."

 

What they did is not irrational. The way they did it does not make any sense other than as some sort of effort to send the clubhouse some sort of message. Why so publicly and particularly in what exec management said publicly....I have no idea why that made sense. I cannot think of a scenario where that makes a hill of beans of sense. I would however include all of the uniform personnel in the "send a message" scenario if that was their intention. Might want to be sending Cora a message as well, something like don't get cute again Alex.

 

As for keeping DD, I don't think it makes sense to keep DD as my post more than suggests, not as a lame duck and not with an extension. Where the Sox are going to end up after this year would not appear to make DD an attractive candidate for the job. DD requires LOTS of money and LOTS of farm system as trade chips. The Sox won't have either. Strapped by the lux tax system and without enough on the farm to really do much. The only thing that the Sox have that fits DD's profile is a core of good players.

 

They will have money in 2020 from expiring obligations. They won't have tons. But they will have money.

 

My view, DD should be gone.

 

If we sign all our arb players, we'll be at about $220-225M next year. That's already $12-17M over the luxury tax line.

 

"They will have money" assumes Henry will want to spend this winter after refusing to spend even $3-4M this past deadline.

 

I'm hoping we reset the tax this winter, but I would not bet on it. I would bet we don't go over the max line, so the idea of "money to spend" might mean only $3-8M, if we plan to stay under the second penalty line. That's WAY less than we spent on Eovaldi & Pearce last winter.

 

Maybe Henry okays going $37M over the tax line, again. That would bring us just under the max line and give us $23-28M to spend. That might be enough to keep us highly competitive for one more year, but we'd further weaken our draft pick status & pool money while risking 1-2 more mistake FA signings that will further cripple any future chances at resetting the tax while rebuilding the farm.

 

Does anybody really think we can keep winning by just spending $39M over the tax line year after year without ever infusing the roster with top young talent from the farm?

 

Can someone tell me how we can rebuild our farm by drafting 24th to 30th every year (assuming no more 10 pick penalties) and having a severely restricted bonus spending pool for international free agent signings. Look at our roster now: how many of our best players were drafted or signed as international FAs?

 

Yes, we may get lucky by drafting another Mookie Betts in later rounds, but I'd hate to pin all our future hopes on that happening again.

 

[moonslav59]

You said , " I think we may be even better than last year." That was way back when . Now , you are giving up .

 

Yes. I have no problem admitting I was terribly wrong.

 

Thinking we "may get better" is not the same as saying it will be a "cakewalk."

 

Other teams got much better over the winter and at this past deadline.

[moonslav59]

Last year we had our Ace out basically from July to the Post-Season, 2 Catchers that didn't hit, 3rd baseman that struggled Offensively and Defensively, a Relief Pitcher from Japan, an erratic Reliever (Kelly), a CF that hit .234.

Basically a worse team then this year, and we 108 games. Luck?

No it was attitude, and never say die. Ever.

This year they thought it would be a cakewalk, and thought they could turn it on any time. Don't work that way.

 

Certainly attitude and a feeling of entitlement has played a major role in the anti universe 2019 season.

 

We've been bitching at the umps, who have not done us any favors, for sure, but you don't get them to make better calls by bitching at them 24/7. (Note: I am not blaming the umps for the collapse.)

 

It's clear restgate was not the reason our starters sucked. They have been babied beyond what I thought was possible, and still, they failed us to the max. Only ERod improved, but only by going later into his starts.

 

The pen sucked.

 

Only Devers improved a defensive position.

 

Base running declined.

 

While our offense did not decline, they seemed to score more runs when not needed than last year. They came up short when needed most- something that did not happen last year.

 

Cora, the coaching staff and DD all share in the blame game, but ultimately about 20 out of our 25 full timers did not meet expectations. That's the bottom line.

 

We sucked this year, and our future looks worse.

 

I'm happy with riding on the memories of 2018 for a while, but it's time to pay the piper. Trying to prolong the glory will only make rebuilding harder and harder.

 

[OH FOY]

Yes. I have no problem admitting I was terribly wrong.

 

Thinking we "may get better" is not the same as saying it will be a "cakewalk."

 

Other teams got much better over the winter and at this past deadline.

 

Answer me this. Did you think this was a 100+ win team? At least 98? I can see 10 less, then last year, but not this.

That was what I expected. Don't matter what other teams did, basically the same team that won 108 last year, coming back.

Edited August 6, 2019 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

Aware of that, but you cant go from one extreme to another. Very easy 20 games difference. So now I have to think more about last year was it a fluke, happens just hot for 1 year and go back to about what you should really be.

Basically same players, not that bad in injuries. Compare to the Yanks. Seems they had the attitude we had last year, next man up.

So what is it?

 

Last year was not a fluke. Keep in mind it was our third straight year winning the division.

 

This year is a case of everything going wrong that could go wrong - with the starting pitching.

[Bellhorn04]

i think that started when some declared Cora the greatest manager in Sox history after 1 season.

 

That is a position I still hold, and time will prove the correctness of that statement.

 

It's not something that can ever be proved.

[moonslav59]

Answer me this. Did you think this was a 100+ win team? At least 98? I can see 10 less, then last year, but not this.

That was what I expected. Don't matter what other teams did, basically the same team that won 108 last year, coming back.

 

Yes, I thought this was going to be a 100 win team.

 

That does not mean I thought it would be a cakewalk, since the Yanks and Astros were 100 win teams, too.

 

How good other teams are matter when thinking "cakewalk".

[moonslav59]

It's not something that can ever be proved.

 

No, it will always just be opinion, but if Cora ends up with the best winning % and has more rings than Tito, a strong case could be made.

 

Plus, for Cora to win again, it will likely be with a totally different team.

[Thunder]

Retire? He’s 29!

 

And got better every year from 2015 through 2018.

 

But he took one step back, so he has to go? Betts took a step back this year, too. Should he retire?

 

Fire his ass. Good thing we haven't paid him yet

[dgalehouse]

Answer me this. Did you think this was a 100+ win team? At least 98? I can see 10 less, then last year, but not this.

That was what I expected. Don't matter what other teams did, basically the same team that won 108 last year, coming back.

Basically the same team , but minus Kelly and Kimbrel. People tend to shrug this off by saying that Kelly was erratic and Kimbrel struggled in the post season . But that ignores how important they were to the success of the team for three years and three A.L. East titles . Losing them was probably inevitable and unavoidable, but doing absolutely nothing to fill the void was a glaring omission. Especially while the Yankees bolstered their already strong bullpen. And it has definitely hurt all year .

[notin]

Fire his ass. Good thing we haven't paid him yet

 

Or ... call it one bad year. It happens. Keep Barnes but get better relievers to accompany him in the bullpen...

[jung]

If we sign all our arb players, we'll be at about $220-225M next year. That's already $12-17M over the luxury tax line.

 

"They will have money" assumes Henry will want to spend this winter after refusing to spend even $3-4M this past deadline.

 

I'm hoping we reset the tax this winter, but I would not bet on it. I would bet we don't go over the max line, so the idea of "money to spend" might mean only $3-8M, if we plan to stay under the second penalty line. That's WAY less than we spent on Eovaldi & Pearce last winter.

 

Maybe Henry okays going $37M over the tax line, again. That would bring us just under the max line and give us $23-28M to spend. That might be enough to keep us highly competitive for one more year, but we'd further weaken our draft pick status & pool money while risking 1-2 more mistake FA signings that will further cripple any future chances at resetting the tax while rebuilding the farm.

 

Does anybody really think we can keep winning by just spending $39M over the tax line year after year without ever infusing the roster with top young talent from the farm?

 

Can someone tell me how we can rebuild our farm by drafting 24th to 30th every year (assuming no more 10 pick penalties) and having a severely restricted bonus spending pool for international free agent signings. Look at our roster now: how many of our best players were drafted or signed as international FAs?

 

Yes, we may get lucky by drafting another Mookie Betts in later rounds, but I'd hate to pin all our future hopes on that happening again.

 

 

I suspect the Sox will not keep all their arb players after this year. Not that it will generate a ton of money. Just don't think they will keep all of them.

 

Funny thing is its not really the arb players that are the problem really, unless you want to consider Mookie's arb status a problem. Signing him to a new contract is the problem IMO, not his arb status. JBJ is an actual problem as an arb player. $9M per my butt end.

 

The issues the Sox have at this point are Sale at 5 and $145M, Nate at 4 and $68M, Price who might be trying to pitch and talk his way outta' town at 7 and $217M.

 

As an aside, the pitching on this team is a mess. Their approach to pitching is a mess team wide which more than suggests that its coming from the spread sheets in the baseball ops dept. In fact, one wonders if they chose LaVangie as their pitching coach simply to tamp down any actual pitching experience guiding the pitching assets as opposed to spread sheets. In fact, one now must consider if the reason they did not resign Kimbrel is because he was not a fit to their spread sheets. Kimbrel challenges hitters.

 

We no longer throw strikes on this team....none of them throws strikes. They all nibble or they try to get hitters to chase off the plate which is not quite nibbling. It ain't throwing strikes either.

 

They challenge nobody. They throw more pitches than any other staff in baseball, 700 more pitches to this point than any other MLB staff. The starters leave games early leaving too much to clean up by the pen. Erod is about the only guy one could say was likely to be a nibbler for life. I have no idea what the rest of them are doing. Nate is about the only guy that actually does challenge hitters on a regular basis. But he is clearly not all the way back yet.

 

Porcello challenged hitters last night mainly because he abandoned his four seam FB and threw two seams down in the zone and breaking pitches. Then again, that was the anemic Royals.

[oldtimer]

Certainly attitude and a feeling of entitlement has played a major role in the anti universe 2019 season.

 

We've been bitching at the umps, who have not done us any favors, for sure, but you don't get them to make better calls by bitching at them 24/7. (Note: I am not blaming the umps for the collapse.)

 

It's clear restgate was not the reason our starters sucked. They have been babied beyond what I thought was possible, and still, they failed us to the max. Only ERod improved, but only by going later into his starts.

 

The pen sucked.

 

Only Devers improved a defensive position.

 

Base running declined.

 

While our offense did not decline, they seemed to score more runs when not needed than last year. They came up short when needed most- something that did not happen last year.

 

Cora, the coaching staff and DD all share in the blame game, but ultimately about 20 out of our 25 full timers did not meet expectations. That's the bottom line.

 

We sucked this year, and our future looks worse.

 

I'm happy with riding on the memories of 2018 for a while, but it's time to pay the piper. Trying to prolong the glory will only make rebuilding harder and harder.

 

 

There are those here who say stats don't support that batting order doesn't make much difference, but with Beni 1st and Betts 2nd, the team wasn't getting a lot of base runners early. Was it because of bad starts by these players? Only when Betts batted first, Devers 2nd and Bogaerts third did the lineup start to look impressive. Betts is still having a good but not great year and it has taken Beni a long while to show the talent many of us think he possesses.

 

The question on how batting order is structured may be one that Cora needs to look at in 2020. Load up with your best bats first (we have 6 sollid ones) and don't be shy about getting rid of the dead wood (again, no pun intended). Maybe some of our inability to score with RISP will improve.

[moonslav59]

I suspect the Sox will not keep all their arb players after this year. Not that it will generate a ton of money. Just don't think they will keep all of them.

 

Funny thing is its not really the arb players that are the problem really, unless you want to consider Mookie's arb status a problem. Signing him to a new contract is the problem IMO, not his arb status. JBJ is an actual problem as an arb player. $9M per my butt end.

 

The issues the Sox have at this point are Sale at 5 and $145M, Nate at 4 and $68M, Price who might be trying to pitch and talk his way outta' town at 7 and $217M.

 

As an aside, the pitching on this team is a mess. Their approach to pitching is a mess team wide which more than suggests that its coming from the spread sheets in the baseball ops dept. In fact, one wonders if they chose LaVangie as their pitching coach simply to tamp down any actual pitching experience guiding the pitching assets as opposed to spread sheets. In fact, one now must consider if the reason they did not resign Kimbrel is because he was not a fit to their spread sheets. Kimbrel challenges hitters.

 

We no longer throw strikes on this team....none of them throws strikes. They all nibble or they try to get hitters to chase off the plate which is not quite nibbling. It ain't throwing strikes either.

 

They challenge nobody. They throw more pitches than any other staff in baseball, 700 more pitches to this point than any other MLB staff. The starters leave games early leaving too much to clean up by the pen. Erod is about the only guy one could say was likely to be a nibbler for life. I have no idea what the rest of them are doing. Nate is about the only guy that actually does challenge hitters on a regular basis. But he is clearly not all the way back yet.

 

Porcello challenged hitters last night mainly because he abandoned his four seam FB and threw two seams down in the zone and breaking pitches. Then again, that was the anemic Royals.

 

Well put.

 

Yes, the problem is not with our arbs, except maybe JBJ.

 

To reset, we will have to let several arb players go or trade a big contract.