A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[harmony]

Last night in the 95th game of the season the Red Sox lost at home to the Blue Jays to fall to 51-44.

 

In the 95th game of the 2012 season the Red Sox lost at home to the Blue Jays to fall to 48-47.

 

It could be worse.

[OH FOY]

Your right we could be the Mariners. haha

[Nick]

I just can't believe how bad our pitching is. That's about all I can say.

 

Yep, we're not getting any quality starts.

[Bellhorn04]

Your right we could be the Mariners. haha

 

Yeah, I guess we'll have to console ourselves with our 4 rings since the Mariners last made the playoffs.

[notin]

It's not exactly a super-bold prediction, considering the dude is almost 32 and had barely pitched in MLB until last year.

 

Exactly. He wasn’t some great unheralded discovery. There was a reason other teams avoided him. Some of that was his injury issues, but a big chunk was probably that he just wasn’t anything special.

 

It’s like when career tweener Aaron Small had that great run for the Yankees. Despite his success, it’s not like Cashman plugged him into the front of the rotation the next year. Small made a few more starts and then just disappeared...

[moonslav59]

Porcello is absolutely worthless right now. Something is wrong with him. I know he figured out a way to gut through 6 after giving up 4, but his stuff has declined yet his location is terrible. His breaking ball is almost unusable. It’s a cement mixer right now as he is still rolling it instead of throwing it. It lacks the downward movement a good curve has. Instead, it’s a slow lateral breaking slurve and those get hammered unless you throw them at the fringes of the zone. Rick is throwing them like there is still a bottom to them and they’re staying belt high leading to great swings from the opponents. Nobody is paying for a rental who has gotten worse going into the summer. The idea that you’re getting anything for Porcello is pure fallacy. Someone will sign him on a pillow deal in the offseason and try to get his breaking ball to work again.

 

Moreland isn’t bringing you back anything. The guy was a one trick pony before getting hurt. He comes back, lasts a game and has been out for another six weeks.

 

Holt could be a useful piece for a title contender. He might be your best trade chip as a “rental” assuming you don’t consider JDM a rental.

 

JD is the toughest case going. Will he opt out or in? If he’s in for next year, you roll with him. If he’s giving you an inkling that he’s gone, sell him now. He’d be worth a couple good prospects, although his skill set is hardly unique in today’s game. DH with power. They fetch something, but not what they used to

 

There is a reason why Cashner went to Boston for two DSL guys and Bmore even sent some cash. He’s been lucky this year and teams can see through the stats. He’s a 6 inning 4.5 ERA guy. Fine as your 5. He will be worth something, just not a lot

 

I never said we'd get a great haul for these guys, just get the best we can.

 

If we pay most of Porcello's contract,someone will take a flyer on him.

 

Moreland will not get much back, even if he comes back very soon and rakes.

 

[notin]

I never said we'd get a great haul for these guys, just get the best we can.

 

If we pay most of Porcello's contract,someone will take a flyer on him.

 

Moreland will not get much back, even if he comes back very soon and rakes.

 

 

Porcello would be good for an NL team, since he’s actually a pretty good hitter...

[moonslav59]

Porcello would be good for an NL team, since he’s actually a pretty good hitter...

 

Trade him to a big NL park team, and he's a good gamble for a contender. Plus, we can pay most of his remaining salary to increase the return prospect or two.

[harmony]

Your right we could be the Mariners. haha

You're on a roll despite your improper grammar but Seattle fans take minor solace that six Mariner prospects are ranked above the top Red Sox prospect at MLB Prospect Watch:

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=prospects

 

The Red Sox and Mariners entered this season with contrasting goals.

[notin]

 

The Red Sox and Mariners entered this season with contrasting goals.

 

The Sox goal was winning...

[dgalehouse]

You're on a roll despite your improper grammar but Seattle fans take minor solace that six Mariner prospects are ranked above the top Red Sox prospect at MLB Prospect Watch:

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=prospects

 

The Red Sox and Mariners entered this season with contrasting goals.

Harm , Any word from fangraphs on when the Mariner's goal might be to win their first ever pennant ?

[harmony]

Harm , Any word from fangraphs on when the Mariner's goal might be to win their first ever pennant ?

Maybe within my lifetime ... maybe not.

 

I was a hardcore Denver Broncos fan for 20 years but lost interest after the Broncos won back-to-back Super Bowls in the late 1990s. I don't follow the NFL at all these days.

 

Sometimes it's the journey, not the destination.

[notin]

Maybe within my lifetime ... maybe not.

 

I was a hardcore Denver Broncos fan for 20 years but lost interest after the Broncos won back-to-back Super Bowls in the late 1990s. I don't follow the NFL at all these days.

 

Sometimes it's the journey, not the destination.

 

But the journey gets tiresome when the team decides to go back and start all over again every 3 to 4 years...

[moonslav59]

But the journey gets tiresome when the team decides to go back and start all over again every 3 to 4 years...

 

Yes, especially when you never reach the ultimate goal between rebuilds

[Maxbialystock]

It looks more and more like a fire sale summer, but we are not there, yet.

 

We need to start planning for it, now, though. We should not make trades to try and win in 2020, but instead 2021 and beyond. Use 2020 to reset the tax with the idea that we may go heavy in the FA market in 2021.

 

Anybody not under team control in 2021 or beyond, trade for the most we can get- preferably prospects that should be ready by 2021 or 2022, but really good ones farther away would be okay.

 

Players under team control in 2021 and beyond, look at their ages and chances of being a key to helping us contend, consider keeping or trading.

 

Sell for best return (pay 99% of salary, if needed):

Porcello

Moreland

Holt

Cashner

(Pearce if worth anything)

 

FAs after 2020 (may have higher value)

Betts

JBJ

Workman (maybe extend?)

Wright & Leon (if worth anything)

 

Special cases:

JD Martinez (back issues and age do not help his case as a key piece for 2021 and beyond)

Price (Tough call. His age says no to 2021>>)

Sale (Probably not worth trading while his stock is low. He may rebound and be a help in 2012>> or he could rebound, and we trade him while his stock is higher than now.)

Eovaldi (Trading low is not a good idea.)

 

After 2021 FAs

Pedey (contract gone)

ERod (keep)

Barnes (keep)

Hembree (Probably worth keeping, for now)

 

It's easier to just list the keepers:

Bogey

Devers

Vaz

ERod

Barnes

Maybe extend Workman

Wait it out with Sale, Eovaldi & Hembree

 

 

You lost me until the last, short part on the keepers, with which I pretty much agree.

 

That said, you only list 9 keepers, and not all of them are solid, so call it 7 keepers. So my question is, where are the other 18 players coming from? There isn't a single outfielder among the keepers and, last I heard, not a whole bunch of good ones in the farm system. I assume 1B and 2B could be covered by, say, Chavis and Hernandez, and the backup C can be almost anyone decent.

 

Right now, the Sox use 13 pitchers and you only want to keep maybe 3 or 4 for sure.

[Slasher9]

Maybe within my lifetime ... maybe not.

 

I was a hardcore Denver Broncos fan for 20 years but lost interest after the Broncos won back-to-back Super Bowls in the late 1990s. I don't follow the NFL at all these days.

 

Sometimes it's the journey, not the destination.

 

I would be sad if it didn’t happen in your lifetime.

Or not.

[moonslav59]

You lost me until the last, short part on the keepers, with which I pretty much agree.

 

That said, you only list 9 keepers, and not all of them are solid, so call it 7 keepers. So my question is, where are the other 18 players coming from? There isn't a single outfielder among the keepers and, last I heard, not a whole bunch of good ones in the farm system. I assume 1B and 2B could be covered by, say, Chavis and Hernandez, and the backup C can be almost anyone decent.

 

Right now, the Sox use 13 pitchers and you only want to keep maybe 3 or 4 for sure.

 

This is "the cliff" many of us spoke of.

 

9 Keepers

 

6-8 prospetcs called up

 

8-10 low cost free agents signed this winter, just to field a team and stay under the tax line.

 

This might be the opening day roster (with more than 7-9 keepers) with NO free agents signed:

 

SP: Price, Sale, ERod, Eovaldi, Johnson/Velazquez

RP: Workman (last arb year), Barnes, Hembree, Taylor, DHern, Brasier, Brewer/Walden/Lakins/Shawaryn

Poyner/ Reyes/ Weber/ Kelley

C: Vaz & Leon (at min salary) or Centeno

1B: Dalbec/Travis/Ockimey/Curletta (Chavis from 2B)

2B: Chavis & Marco (Maybe re-sign Holt)

3B: Devers

SS: Bogey & Lin/Chatham

LF: Beni

CF: Castillo/GHernandez/Duran

RF: Betts (if not traded)

DH: Pedey/Dalbec/Ockimey

 

No:

JD

Porcello

JBJ

Moreland

Pearce

Nunez

Wright

 

I think that's enough to get under the luxury tax line. (I'll do the math later.)

 

Maybe Betts or Beni will be gone and replaced by 1-2 cheap free agents on 1 year deals.

 

 

Edited July 17, 2019 by moonslav59

[harmony]

Yes, especially when you never reach the ultimate goal between rebuilds

I lost interest after the Denver Broncos attained the "ultimate goal" in consecutive years.

 

Perhaps I am fortunate that my life lacks a success void yearning to be filled vicariously by the onfield success of my favorite sports team. My happiness does not correlate with the wins and losses of the Seattle Mariners.

 

Generalizations have little value but ...

 

Red Sox fans tend to be visceral while Mariner fans tend to be cerebral. Sox fans revel in the instant joy of a win or a World Series title while Mariner fans tend to be problem-solvers entranced by the troubles of their favorite franchise. It's probably no coincidence that Dave Cameron and Jeff Sullivan went from amateur bloggers for the Mariners to managing editors at FanGraphs to jobs in the front offices of two MLB teams.

[moonslav59]

I lost interest after the Denver Broncos attained the "ultimate goal" in consecutive years.

 

Perhaps I am fortunate that my life lacks a success void yearning to be filled vicariously by the onfield success of my favorite sports team. My happiness does not correlate with the wins and losses of the Seattle Mariners.

 

Generalizations have little value but ...

 

Red Sox fans tend to be visceral while Mariner fans tend to be cerebral. Sox fans revel in the instant joy of a win or a World Series title while Mariner fans tend to be problem-solvers entranced by the troubles of their favorite franchise. It's probably no coincidence that Dave Cameron and Jeff Sullivan went from amateur bloggers for the Mariners to managing editors at FanGraphs to jobs in the front offices of two MLB teams.

 

It must have been easy not following the sucky Broncos after their 2 wins.

 

I'm not sure I agree with your generalizations, since there are many cerebral Sox fans, many of whom have gone on to "heady" jobs in baseball.

[dgalehouse]

I lost interest after the Denver Broncos attained the "ultimate goal" in consecutive years.

 

Perhaps I am fortunate that my life lacks a success void yearning to be filled vicariously by the onfield success of my favorite sports team. My happiness does not correlate with the wins and losses of the Seattle Mariners.

 

Generalizations have little value but ...

 

Red Sox fans tend to be visceral while Mariner fans tend to be cerebral. Sox fans revel in the instant joy of a win or a World Series title while Mariner fans tend to be problem-solvers entranced by the troubles of their favorite franchise. It's probably no coincidence that Dave Cameron and Jeff Sullivan went from amateur bloggers for the Mariners to managing editors at FanGraphs to jobs in the front offices of two MLB teams.

 

Harm , That is kind of deep . I don't take this stuff all that seriously . I just want to have some peanuts , crackerjacks and enjoy the games . And it is more fun when the team is good .

[Bellhorn04]

I lost interest after the Denver Broncos attained the "ultimate goal" in consecutive years.

 

Perhaps I am fortunate that my life lacks a success void yearning to be filled vicariously by the onfield success of my favorite sports team. My happiness does not correlate with the wins and losses of the Seattle Mariners.

 

Generalizations have little value but ...

 

Red Sox fans tend to be visceral while Mariner fans tend to be cerebral. Sox fans revel in the instant joy of a win or a World Series title while Mariner fans tend to be problem-solvers entranced by the troubles of their favorite franchise. It's probably no coincidence that Dave Cameron and Jeff Sullivan went from amateur bloggers for the Mariners to managing editors at FanGraphs to jobs in the front offices of two MLB teams.

 

Every sports fan is on their own personal trip. You do see mob behavior, but when you come on a message board like this you see that other fans all have their own personal perspective. That's why we argue so much LOL

 

I admit to deriving great satisfaction from the Red Sox run of championships. My profile as a sports fan is pretty simple. The Red Sox are the only sports team I have cared about long-term. Favorite teams in other sports were all short-term. And I was a Red Sox fan for 35 years before seeing them win a title. I was 48 years old before knowing what it was like to have my team win a championship.

 

It was quite a relief.

[S5Dewey]

 

Red Sox fans tend to be visceral while Mariner fans tend to be cerebral.

 

Ya. It's been obvious for some time that you consider yourself to be more cerebral than we Sox fans are. And more of an ******* at times, too!

[harmony]

Ya. It's been obvious for some time that you consider yourself to be more cerebral than we Sox fans are. And more of an ******* at times, too!

Was that necessary?:)

 

Diverse opinions are welcome here.

[S5Dewey]

Was that necessary?:)

 

Diverse opinions are welcome here.

 

Ya. I should have deleted that part and just let the first part stand.

[harmony]

Ya. I should have deleted that part and just let the first part stand.

It's all good.

[Slasher9]

Ya. I should have deleted that part and just let the first part stand.

 

Or just added “or not”.

Like this:

Our resident mariners fan can be an *******.

Or not.

[moonslav59]

Every sports fan is on their own personal trip. You do see mob behavior, but when you come on a message board like this you see that other fans all have their own personal perspective. That's why we argue so much LOL

 

I admit to deriving great satisfaction from the Red Sox run of championships. My profile as a sports fan is pretty simple. The Red Sox are the only sports team I have cared about long-term. Favorite teams in other sports were all short-term. And I was a Red Sox fan for 35 years before seeing them win a title. I was 48 years old before knowing what it was like to have my team win a championship.

 

It was quite a relief.

 

Nice.

 

The Sox have always been way ahead of my other sport teams' following.

 

I used to score the games by radio or try to watch them on my TV set on UHF Channel 38 all the way from Portland, Me.

 

I was a kid in Milwaukee during the Packer and Bucks championships, and they still have a place in my heart but no where near the Sox.

 

I played fantasy football for 3 years and won twice. They booted me out of the league by changing it to postal workers only. I think I lost my extreme love of the Packers while rooting for Emmit Smith and Gud Frerotte to score, score, score... The Pack and Bucks sucked for many years, but they've had their moments in the sun or partial shade.

 

I admit I've channeled much of my OCD tendencies to one thing:

 

The Boston Redsox!

 

[moonslav59]

RIP Pumpsie Green.

[jad]

Nice.

 

The Sox have always been way ahead of my other sport teams' following.

 

I used to score the games by radio or try to watch them on my TV set on UHF Channel 38 all the way from Portland, Me.

 

I was a kid in Milwaukee during the Packer and Bucks championships, and they still have a place in my heart but no where near the Sox.

 

I played fantasy football for 3 years and won twice. They booted me out of the league by changing it to postal workers only. I think I lost my extreme love of the Packers while rooting for Emmit Smith and Gud Frerotte to score, score, score... The Pack and Bucks sucked for many years, but they've had their moments in the sun or partial shade.

 

I admit I've channeled much of my OCD tendencies to one thing:

 

The Boston Redsox!

 

 

I think you're older than I am, but not by much. I grew up a few miles n. of you, and channel 38 almost never came in. So yes, it was Curt Gowdy on the radio. I too would score games, but my OCD brother, an early sabermetrician, developed a method of scoring (or heard of it?) and scored each game for a whole year using it. (And ditto on Pumpsie. It's a shameful reminder of the racism in New England that the RS were the last team of the big three sports to integrate [except for the still loathsome team from D.C. in the NFL]. I believe the Bruins had a black player before the RS did.)

[notin]

Or just added “or not”.

Like this:

Our resident mariners fan can be an *******.

Or not.

 

[mic drop]