A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[dgalehouse]

The biggest thing Manfred should do is crack down on the tanking . Nobody wants to watch that . And he should give the umpires the authority to keep the game moving at a good pace . Fans want competitive, fast moving baseball . Attendance is down , but there is still interest where the team is competitive and properly promoted . When you look at teams like the Yankees , Red Sox , Cubs , Phillies , Dodgers and a couple of others , you see full ballparks and enthusiastic fans . It can be done .

[fxkatt]

Has there ever been an AL season sporting so many bad, embarrassingly bad, teams as this year. It's almost like this 'Wake me up when the regular season's over.' The only unpredictable teams are Oakland, Tampa Bay, and Cleveland, two of which have no fan base. Most of these losers don't even care to fight for Single Wins against the top teams. And it's only going to get worse after July 31st. What would help the competitive balance would be hard caps at both ends as say 90 million to 200 million, returning to a 154 game schedule which would highlight lame efforts better, and yes speeding up the damn game even if it take robot umps to enforce it.

[moonslav59]

Based on WHAT!!!! All the evidence is that MLB has been and still is headed EXACTLY the other way. None of the crap they have tried to shorten games has worked either and initiating policy and practices that has created more HR's and more K's goes in EXACTLY the opposite direction.

 

Average length for games over the entire 2018 season was 3:05.58. Average length for the first half of 2019 or approximately 90 games was 3:00.11. Do we really think games will get shorter down the stretch or do we think they will get longer down the stretch/ I have little hope that the approximate 4 minute dif between 2018 and 2019 will hold up over the second half and it rose to 3:05 for the 2017 season.

 

As for whether MLB will actually be able to initiate a pitch clock ......I would say that there is going to be a battle there.

 

Give pitchers back a reasonable baseball, which means Manfred will have to admit that they know the ball is juiced and that they have juiced it more each year for at least 3 of the last 4 years and you might then have less of a battle over a pitch clock.

 

As with all major changes in MLB, it is slow. They still have not made the DH a rule in both leagues.

 

I did not say they would be successful in capturing kids hearts, but I do think the talk of shortening the game will eventually lead to action, especially when attendance starts falling rapidly as our generation dies off.

 

We will have an enforced pitch clock within the next few years. We will likely have rules on RP'er usage and a restricted pen size in September. This may not be enough to shorten the game enough to draw in more younger fans, but I'm pretty sure MLB is as dumb as they seem to be right now.

 

[moonslav59]

Has there ever been an AL season sporting so many bad, embarrassingly bad, teams as this year. It's almost like this 'Wake me up when the regular season's over.' The only unpredictable teams are Oakland, Tampa Bay, and Cleveland, two of which have no fan base. Most of these losers don't even care to fight for Single Wins against the top teams. And it's only going to get worse after July 31st. What would help the competitive balance would be hard caps at both ends as say 90 million to 200 million, returning to a 154 game schedule which would highlight lame efforts better, and yes speeding up the damn game even if it take robot umps to enforce it.

 

162 games will likely remain, due to the money lost by shortening the season. If they can shorten the game to 2:00 or 2:15, it may be enough.

 

I'm not sure mega offense is needed to bring in young fans, but my guess is it wouldn't hurt (although it may drive away old time purists).

 

Pitch clock

 

Robo Umps (cuts down complaining)

 

Shorten review delay times

 

Maybe...

 

Force RP'ers to face 2-3 batters.

 

3rd foul after 2 strikes is a K.

 

Stop massive expanded September rosters.

 

[moonslav59]

Now that the Thornburg issue has been solved, here's a look at our roster construction choices to be made. First, let's look at the rosters (25 and 40 man) before any trade or acquisitions are made.

 

Current 25 Man Roster (Red= has options remaining)

13 Pitchers

SP: Sale, Price, ERod, Porcello & Velazquez

RP: Workman, Hembree, Barnes, Brasier, Taylor, Wright, Brewer, Walden

2 Catchers

Vaz & Leon

1 First base

Chavis

2 Second base

Holt & Hernandez

1 Short stop

Bogaerts

2 Third base

Devers & Nunez

1 LF

Benintendi

1 CF

Bradley

1 RF

Betts

1 DH

Martinez

 

60 Day IL:

SP: Eovaldi (due back soon)

2B: Pedroia (may never play again)

 

10 Day IL:

SP/RP: Johnson

1B: Moreland & Pearce

 

Others on the 40 Man Roster that have or may play this season:

SP: Weber, Reyes

RP: Poyner, Lakins, Shawaryn, DHernandez, J Smith, Kelley

1B: Travis, Curletta

IF/OF: Lin

 

We do not really have a 40 man roster crunch, as we'd barely notice losing Curletta, Kelley, D Reyes and maybe even Weber, Shawaryn or Smith.

 

Here's my view of what we do when these players come off the IL:

 

Eovaldi to closer: demote Walden to AAA.

 

Moreland to 1B (Chavis to 2B): trade or DFA Nunez (likely will demote Marco)

 

Johnson to 5th starter: demote Velazquez to AAA.

 

Pearce to 1B/DH: trade or DFA Pearce or Nunez (or demote Hernandez or Taylor/Brewer by going with 12 pitchers)

 

Personally, if everyone was healthy, I'd trade Pearce and Nunez along with whatever cash was needed for basically nothing. I'd keep Marco, Holt, Chavis & Moreland as right-side IF'ers.

 

This would be the "healthy" 25 Man Roster

 

Sale, Price, ERod, Porcello, Johnson

Eovaldi, Workman, Hembree, Barnes, Brasier, Wright, Brewer, Taylor

Vazquez & Leon

Moreland & Chavis

Holt & Hernandez

Bogaerts

Devers

Benintendi

Bradley

Betts

Martinez

 

Gone: Pearce & Nunez- maybe keep 1, if we want to go with 12 pitchers (Taylor or Brewer to AAA)

 

Now, to trade possibilities:

 

Most likely, we will trade for a pitcher. It looks like SP'er is the first priority, unless Eovaldi struggles with his health or performance as the closer. Taylor or Brewer would likely be demoted to make room. Without Nunez on the roster, I doubt we'd demote Hernandez.

 

Maybe the best idea would be to try and include Johnson in any trade for a SP'er, since he is out of options and would squeeze the pen out of a better pitcher. If we trade for a RP'er, we may look to trade a current pen piece to make room- not that demoting Taylor or Brewer would be the end of the world.

 

Your thoughts are welcome.

 

 

Anybody know when these guys are due back?

 

Eovaldi?

 

Moreland?

 

Pearce?

 

Johnson?

 

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe...

 

Force RP'ers to face 2-3 batters.

 

That's a done deal. 3 batter minimum in effect in 2020.

[Bellhorn04]

[/i]

 

Anybody know when these guys are due back?

 

Eovaldi?

 

Moreland?

 

Pearce?

 

Johnson?

 

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2019.shtml

 

Injury report at top of page below pics of WAR leaders.

[fxkatt]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2019.shtml

 

Injury report at top of page below pics of WAR leaders.

 

These reports certainly have a grim tone to them. As in, can we be actually sure any one of Eovaldi, Pierce, and Moreland will be back before Sept first? Oh well, all three will be rested up enough to once again be post-season heroes, which we will need even more than last year.

[notin]

That's a done deal. 3 batter minimum in effect in 2020.

 

f***ing stupid rule. But it does kill job opportunities for the pitchers Jeff Passan used to call “is left-handed, has pulse”...

[fxkatt]

f***ing stupid rule. But it does kill job opportunities for the pitchers Jeff Passan used to call “is left-handed, has pulse”...

 

But nothing slows the game down more. Even broadcasters become stupified. You can hear it in their voice. And the rule puts the brakes on specialization.

[moonslav59]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2019.shtml

 

Injury report at top of page below pics of WAR leaders.

 

Thanks.

 

I thought Eovaldi was going to be ready sooner than the end of July.

 

Johnson could be near ready, but I haven't seen him in any rehab games.

[kenmeister]

Thanks.

 

I thought Eovaldi was going to be ready sooner than the end of July.

 

Johnson could be near ready, but I haven't seen him in any rehab games.

 

It's a weird year. It's like once someone gets injured, they stay injured. Except Brock Holt.

[jung]

As with all major changes in MLB, it is slow. They still have not made the DH a rule in both leagues.

 

I did not say they would be successful in capturing kids hearts, but I do think the talk of shortening the game will eventually lead to action, especially when attendance starts falling rapidly as our generation dies off.

 

We will have an enforced pitch clock within the next few years. We will likely have rules on RP'er usage and a restricted pen size in September. This may not be enough to shorten the game enough to draw in more younger fans, but I'm pretty sure MLB is as dumb as they seem to be right now.

 

 

So boiled down to the issue they have created with young fans and everybody but old guys like me that can dissect a game down to the finest point without even trying hard is that they have created a joyless game. They have taken a game that on its best day is hard as heck to play well and made it a game of the ultimate extremes. The hitter either hits a HR or K's....THE END. That 13 inning NLCS game between the Dodgers and Brewers last year: 41K's, 5 BB's and a grand total of 15 hits between both teams over 13 innings, 15 total hits! Worse, we have a bunch of computer nimrods telling managers and coaches what players should and should not do. HORSE s***. How many baseball games did computer nimrod play? You can guess how many I think he played.

 

It is so out of control now that while there is actually little joy in the manner in which the actual game is played, there is all this "controversy" over whether a batter flips a bat or not and whether a pitcher is offended or not. Do you know why that is? Its because they have created such a joyless game that now nobody believes the hitter is actually celebrating out of joy but instead believes down to his bones that he is Dissing the pitcher and extended from that, dissing the opposing team.

 

Then laughable absurdity of absurdity, MLBPA Player Rep Tony Clark complains that Mookie should be universally known by that single name and should basically be on the side of milk cartons and what have you. Makes a big stink about it. So what does the media do? Goes right to Mookie who is only several feet away in the AL clubhouse and tells him what Clark has said and asks him what he thinks. Mookie basically says, Nah.....I don't need that kind of attention, which entirely misses the point. Both Clark and Mookie entirely miss the point.

 

The point is nobody outside of baseball knows Mookie from a hole in the wall and nobody cares, not even Mookie himself. Are they out in the communities like Mo Vaughn was years ago? NOPE. They have their foundations and their charities but are they doing the kinds of things that lets say NBA players do? NOPE. Are they transcendent in any way shape or form all the way from Mookie Betts to Mike Trout to Justin Verlander and Toronto's Jr? NOPE!

 

It is now a joyless game played by joyless players, detached from the communities that support them, fixated on whether they are being dissed by their fellow players or not. They have rule changed and manipulated the game to be an exercise in utter futility, confusion and meaninglessness and it is not hard for even the least baseball savvy of us to see that. In fact, the less involved in the game the potential fan or actual fan is, the more it smacks him right in the face. HENCE, MLB's problem with Manfred's misguided madness!

 

They have suspended Jake Marisnick for two games and fined him an "undisclosed amount" for running into Angel's catcher Lucroy at home plate the other day. In the first place, why undisclosed. Are you ashamed of your decision Joe Torre you IDIOT. Need to keep it under wraps do we? What are you punishing Marisnick for, pointing out once again what a ridiculous bag of crap you have created in these rule changes that protect nobody? Lucroy's biggest problem on that play is that he is now playing the game like some rule is going to protect him.

 

Would have loved to have seen MLB's and the Astro's response if Marisnick had just made a right turn half way down the 3rd base line, called himself out and walked to the dugout.

Edited July 11, 2019 by jung

[jacksonianmarch]

We don't have a "MIggy contract". We still have some solid, low-cost players like Devers, Beni, ERod & maybe Chavis. Many feel we underpaid Bogey & Sale. Many of our big contracts are up in 1-3 years. It's not quite as bad as Detroit or Fla, but there are certainly big financial and farm system issues to deal with that have near impossible ways to fix in today's systems.

 

I agree with your mediocrity position. Never getting any top draft picks by having a real "cliff" year or two makes it almost impossible to ever rebuild the farm to decency, let alone one of the best like we had back in the early to mid 2000's and the Betts-Bogey-Bradley era.

 

On the bright side, does it really look like major losses, based on how these guys are doing this year and the fact that we are still in the playoff race, to lose:

 

Porcello

Moreland

Pearce

Nunez

Holt

Thornburg

 

I'm not so sure 2020is the year we suffer greatly.

 

We may even end up trading JBJ and bringing in a low-cost, defensive CF'er that hits a consistent .690-.720 and hardly miss a beat. (Maybe?)

 

We may see Pedey retire and save us some bucks, but that is unlikely.

 

If JD leaves, we can reset, but we won't be true contenders without him, and we won't be a last place team either and be able to draft the next Beni with the 7th pick.

 

Only Sale and Bogey are under contract until 2023. Only Eovaldi, Price and Vaz until 2022. We have the flexibility to totally reset and be bad for one year, if we want. I guess Sale could become our "Miggy," but I still have faith.

 

I have no faith our farm can be rebuilt to top 10 or even 15 without a firesale at some point in the next 2 years. If we match that up with a one time budget reset and one "bad year" we may be able to get back to the top in a short time. It will take at least a couple big decisions by Henry & DD.

 

If you look to the southwest for a blueprint on how to rebuild with mediocrity, you see a team that continually surpassed the lux tax and won below 91 and above 81 games from 13-16. We had a one game WC playoff we lost in 2015. But what we did during that time was avoid propping things up with trades. We held onto every good prospect we had. We drafted pretty well and we were very active in the INTL markets. What sparked us going forward was the 2016 firesale. This meant we could turn 2017 over to the rookies. Sanchez, Judge, Bird (to some degree), Andujar, Severino, Montgomery, and Gleyber. The Chapman trade gave us a perennial all star middle infielder, a reliever who was useful and we flipped for INTL funds and a former 1st rounder we flipped for Happ. We dealt Beltran for Tate who we flipped for Britton. We dealt Miller for Sheffield and Frazier. Sheffield got us Paxton. We flipped Nova for Tarpley and Polo. Polo was the second piece to Rutherford that got us DRob, T Frazier, and Kahnle. We moved McCann for Guzman and Abreu. Abreu is still a top prospect and Guzman we flipped for Stanton. That rebuild allowed us the extra push to flesh out our squad and stay sustainable

[moonslav59]

If you look to the southwest for a blueprint on how to rebuild with mediocrity, you see a team that continually surpassed the lux tax and won below 91 and above 81 games from 13-16. We had a one game WC playoff we lost in 2015. But what we did during that time was avoid propping things up with trades. We held onto every good prospect we had. We drafted pretty well and we were very active in the INTL markets. What sparked us going forward was the 2016 firesale. This meant we could turn 2017 over to the rookies. Sanchez, Judge, Bird (to some degree), Andujar, Severino, Montgomery, and Gleyber. The Chapman trade gave us a perennial all star middle infielder, a reliever who was useful and we flipped for INTL funds and a former 1st rounder we flipped for Happ. We dealt Beltran for Tate who we flipped for Britton. We dealt Miller for Sheffield and Frazier. Sheffield got us Paxton. We flipped Nova for Tarpley and Polo. Polo was the second piece to Rutherford that got us DRob, T Frazier, and Kahnle. We moved McCann for Guzman and Abreu. Abreu is still a top prospect and Guzman we flipped for Stanton. That rebuild allowed us the extra push to flesh out our squad and stay sustainable

 

All true, but it's not the only way to be competitive more years than not. The system has made it much harder for big spenders that win more than the lose every year, but spending large will always keep you contending or at least convincing your fans you can win each year.

 

Having at least one "cliff year" is probably the best way to rebuild. Match that year up with a controlled firesale and budget reset, and I think we can get back to or near the top in 1-2 years. The issue, now is that we have a damn good roster right now, and it's hard to choose this summer as the year to sell and next winter as the reset time. My guess is we wait until 2020 and reset for the 2021 season.

 

The next 3 weeks might change my mind to move things up a year. Trading big contracts this summer and winter, resetting in 2020 and then extending Betts for 2021 and beyond might work better.

[jacksonianmarch]

Who are you gonna trade? The problem is, you need to have a parade of good pre-arb players to sustain a team that has 4 active players (and 1 perennially injured player) taking up half your budget. When the well behind you dries up and your current cheap talent gets pricey, you run out of options and fade.

[moonslav59]

Who are you gonna trade? The problem is, you need to have a parade of good pre-arb players to sustain a team that has 4 active players (and 1 perennially injured player) taking up half your budget. When the well behind you dries up and your current cheap talent gets pricey, you run out of options and fade.

 

I'm not for a fire sale, at least right now, but in theory, we could trade JD, Sale, JBJ and Betts, if we know we are not going to outbid everyone for him after 2020. We could get a lot for that 2 or 3 from that group and still have a pretty decent core of players- some young and cheap to build around and try to get back to competitiveness after one reset year and maybe even a year where we get a top 10 draft pick by sucking in 2020.

[jacksonianmarch]

You’d have to eat 2/3 of Sale’s contract and you wouldn’t even get a great player back. JD would return you something, but that team would need to be willing to eat the 3 years left on his deal. Betts is the guy who can restock the farm.

[moonslav59]

You’d have to eat 2/3 of Sale’s contract and you wouldn’t even get a great player back. JD would return you something, but that team would need to be willing to eat the 3 years left on his deal. Betts is the guy who can restock the farm.

 

You really think Sale's stock has slipped that much?

 

Have you seen what some pitchers with bigger health issues and spottier skill sets have been getting?

 

You think Sale would only get $9M a year as a FA, right now?

 

I'm hoping that was just hyperbole.

[moonslav59]

You’d have to eat 2/3 of Sale’s contract and you wouldn’t even get a great player back. JD would return you something, but that team would need to be willing to eat the 3 years left on his deal. Betts is the guy who can restock the farm.

 

While the 4 guys I mentioned are getting paid more than Chapman, Miller, Beltran, McCann & Nova were, I think you are undervaluing their stock.

[notin]

But nothing slows the game down more. Even broadcasters become stupified. You can hear it in their voice. And the rule puts the brakes on specialization.

 

Then stop September roster expansion. Managers will learn to manage their bullpens properly for the other 5 months.

[moonslav59]

Then stop September roster expansion. Managers will learn to manage their bullpens properly for the other 5 months.

 

YES!

 

And, people point to game times this year as not being higher than last year's, but we haven't hit September, yet, and this year's average will spike above last year's.

 

[Slasher9]

You’d have to eat 2/3 of Sale’s contract and you wouldn’t even get a great player back. .

 

Simply not true.

[oldtimer]

This month we have 3 against the Dodgers, 5 with the Rays and 4 with the Yankees. Tough to see us coming out of this stretch any better off then we are now.

[OH FOY]

Next off day July 29th. Then another 17 straight games. Just working a regular job, its tough to work 30 days + with 1 day off. A complete day off, nothing to do with Baseball.

This part of schedule will determine season. I have a feeling the Pawtucket shuttle will be in overdrive.

Edited July 12, 2019 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

Next off day July 29th. Then another 17 straight games.

 

Wow, beautiful scheduling isn't it?

[OH FOY]

Wow, beautiful scheduling isn't it?

 

Agree, MLB are idiots, after the Indian series, the Sox play 38 games with 8 days off.

I think a couple of these 34 games are make-ups though.

2 weeks straight either the Yanks or the Rays, crazy.

Edited July 12, 2019 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

Simply not true.

 

Many felt the years and dollars were lower than expected to begin with, so I doubt a ho-hum 18 game start to 2019 cuts his value by 67%.

[notin]

Many felt the years and dollars were lower than expected to begin with, so I doubt a ho-hum 18 game start to 2019 cuts his value by 67%.

 

That’s because you forgot the “Not A Yankee” factor...

[moonslav59]

That’s because you forgot the “Not A Yankee” factor...

 

I don't recall Jacko saying the contract was an overpay at the time of the signing.

 

Many felt he'd get 6-7 years and $30-35M a year.

Edited July 12, 2019 by moonslav59