A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

One big issue I have with the organization is not being realistic on some players, and I'm not even talking about our bullpen.

 

1 Sandoval....the guy was finished long before anyone in the organization was willing to admit it. Out of shape slob. By clinging on to false hope, it prevented us from moving on.

2 Hanley...we finally came to our senses and let him go.

3 Pedroia....hell Jacksonianmarch KNEW that his type of injury was career ending. Everyone in New England kept their fingers crossed. Yankee fan knew it all along but not our medical staff. We did nothing to have a back up plan.

 

Those problems were all in play in 2018, and that season turned out pretty well.

 

When you're playing like s***, everything looks questionable.

[Maxbialystock]

One big issue I have with the organization is not being realistic on some players, and I'm not even talking about our bullpen.

 

1 Sandoval....the guy was finished long before anyone in the organization was willing to admit it. Out of shape slob. By clinging on to false hope, it prevented us from moving on.

2 Hanley...we finally came to our senses and let him go.

3 Pedroia....hell Jacksonianmarch KNEW that his type of injury was career ending. Everyone in New England kept their fingers crossed. Yankee fan knew it all along but not our medical staff. We did nothing to have a back up plan. Only good thing to come out of it was Michael Chavis.

4 Steve Pearce...at this point why do we need him back? Is he an upgrade over Chavis?

 

I do like it that we're getting to see young players, finding out if they're good or not. Shawaryn can't throw strikes. He lives off the strike zone. I don't want team full of Dice K's. Try someone else. If they can't cut it, move on. Better find out the bad news early rather than later.

 

Agree on the first two, but not the 3d. The Sox won everything last with Kinsler mostly and Holt/Nunez sometimes and no Pedey to speak of. The Sox let Kinsler be "taken" in hopes of Pedey returned, but that worked perfectly when Chavis showed up with his hot bat and adequate defense, which was better than Nunez's--he of the bad glove. That still left Moreland, who started hot this year, and Pearce to play 1b, which should have been plenty. As for Pearce, he was great last year as Moreland's backup, especially in the postseason, so why not bring him back for another year?

[oldtimer]

Well said.

 

This winter I suggested a lot of things, and some would have been horrible (like Cody Allen), but I did suggest LeMahieu and didn't get much agreement.

 

He would have been a treasure. The year before, I suggested Yellich but we probably didn't have the chips to get him. The Yankees have done a much better job of picking up talent. No weak spots in their lineup.

[Bellhorn04]

He would have been a treasure. The year before, I suggested Yellich but we probably didn't have the chips to get him. The Yankees have done a much better job of picking up talent. No weak spots in their lineup.

 

OTOH Cashman's big additions to the rotation, Paxton and Happ, have largely been busts-outweighed, obviously, by the other good things that have happened.

[notin]

He would have been a treasure. The year before, I suggested Yellich but we probably didn't have the chips to get him. The Yankees have done a much better job of picking up talent. No weak spots in their lineup.

 

 

Although the chips the Brewers gave up to get Yelich have largely been flops.

 

Yelich has been outstanding, but he’d be a slightly lesser player at Fenway than in that shoebox in Milwaukee...

[notin]

OTOH Cashman's big additions to the rotation, Paxton and Happ, have largely been busts-outweighed, obviously, by the other good things that have happened.

 

And their vaunted bullpen is a bunch of pitchers in their 30’s...

[notin]

Agree on the first two, but not the 3d. The Sox won everything last with Kinsler mostly and Holt/Nunez sometimes and no Pedey to speak of. The Sox let Kinsler be "taken" in hopes of Pedey returned, but that worked perfectly when Chavis showed up with his hot bat and adequate defense, which was better than Nunez's--he of the bad glove. That still left Moreland, who started hot this year, and Pearce to play 1b, which should have been plenty. As for Pearce, he was great last year as Moreland's backup, especially in the postseason, so why not bring him back for another year?

 

The real problem with that criticism is it lumps all Sox administration into one big pile and faults the current ones for the mistakes of their predecessors. Might as well mention the Bagwell trade while we’re at it...

[OH FOY]

Yanks are doing something right, they won 100 games last year too. Not easy to win 100 games in Major League Baseball.

[Maxbialystock]

DD for the most part stood pat with last years team sans Kimbrell and in addition the team has had a number of injuries with perhaps the most critial was Eovaldi. That might have been avoidable had the elbow problems been dealt with in Late Novermber instead of April but it is what it is. We all know financial constraints have played a part along with the minors depleted to attempt to win it all last season. The situation wasn't helped but having to carry Sandoval's contract and having Pedroias contract (with no value to the team as well) to make moves more difficult. Moon has pointed out that we got improved performance from some guys which to some degree has made up for weaken performance from Betts, Beni and even JDM. Maybe it's Cora approach or player apathy, but we are not as good a team this year while the Yankees have improved.

 

Compare that to Cashman's activities in the off season just for field players. Urshela, LeMahieu, Encarnacion as the most prominent. The Yankees were smart and survived a streak of injuries because of their depth and they are getting back their injured resources. That doesn't even touch on pitching help that they got and probably will add beyond what they had.

 

Maybe we still have enough to get a wild card slot provided we shore up the BP. That may be a 50 % probability at this point but does anyone see us beating the Astros, Dodgers, Yankees or perhaps other and going to the World Series? I don't so recommend going to a play B approach, which is to look to develop any young players that can make the grade (maybe none, but dont get rid of the most promising). identify a list of keepers and then trade away or otherwise get rid of those that don't appear to be competitive so as to open up some salary space to fill our pitching and position player spaces.

 

My list of keepers are Bogie, Devers, Vaz, Betts (I expect him to bounce back), probably Beni although not surely, probably Chavis as a low cost 1st base presence, and probably JDM unless he exercises his option to leave and possibly JBJ if he shows sustained performance.

 

That leaves us to find a permanent 2nd baseman, utility guys (Holt is fragile but is a pro), a backup catcher if we can do better than Leon,but the key is pitching. We have Sale, Price, E-Rod and Eovaldi but Porcello, while an inning eater may need to be let go as a FA. Have to ask, why can't we develop a starting pitcher as the Rays have so often done? I would blow up the pen keeping only a few of the best.

 

This is a thread for aa realistic view of the season and that is my view of reality.

 

A good practical view, but I would go one step further and argue that the highest paid players in MLB are by and large overpaid with of course a few notable exceptions like Trout. With Sale still at his "bargain" rate of $15M, the Sox are still paying $88M for an--there is no other word for it--unreliable rotation (Sale, Price, ERod, Porcello, and Eovaldi).

 

Last year JDM was a bargain--this year not so much. Mookie at $20M was surely a bargain this year, but lately not so much. He sure as heck doesn't look like a $30M/year man. Bogaerts new deal, basically $20M/year with some options, makes a whole lot more sense than paying Mookie $30M/year. I think Chavis will continue to improve his hitting, so he's an infield keeper at 1b, 2b, or 3b. Devers, obviously. I would keep JBJ if his price is right and he keeps hitting. Same for Beni if his hitting improves. I would probably keep JDM at $23.5M if he doesn't bolt. I would keep Leon and try to get him to lose a little weight. I think he is better defensively than Vazquez even though the best statistical thinking says that CERA is hokum. The Sox have won all 11 of the last 11 games in which Vazquez did not play.

 

Of course, reality says my version is pie in the sky because of all those existing contracts.

Edited June 30, 2019 by Maxbialystock

[harmony]

The question will remain - what would it take to change from buyer to seller?

 

The division is further and further away. The WC is getting more crowded. And if you’re realistic about it, you can’t wait until July 31 to decide, since trades are very complex and lawyers have to review contracts, etc. The Sox probably have 2 weeks to make a decision if they’re going to stay in it or just sell off some parts and try to reload...

What if the Red Sox could find a taker for David Price, J.D. Martinez and Nathan Eovaldi a la the trade of Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett and Carl Crawford?

[a700hitter]

What if the Red Sox could find a taker for David Price, J.D. Martinez and Nathan Eovaldi a la the trade of Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett and Carl Crawford?

So we could invest $300 million in Mookie? No thanks.

[Bellhorn04]

What if the Red Sox could find a taker for David Price, J.D. Martinez and Nathan Eovaldi a la the trade of Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett and Carl Crawford?

 

That's just silly.

[devildavid]

Agree on the first two, but not the 3d. The Sox won everything last with Kinsler mostly and Holt/Nunez sometimes and no Pedey to speak of. The Sox let Kinsler be "taken" in hopes of Pedey returned, but that worked perfectly when Chavis showed up with his hot bat and adequate defense, which was better than Nunez's--he of the bad glove. That still left Moreland, who started hot this year, and Pearce to play 1b, which should have been plenty. As for Pearce, he was great last year as Moreland's backup, especially in the postseason, so why not bring him back for another year?

 

Both Kinsler and Pearce are too old to sign. Should have been looking for a top tier 2b to replace Pedroia about 2 seasons ago. The rest of Pedroia's contract is a cost to be absorbed. Holt and Nunez are strictly bench strength, not starting 2b.

[devildavid]

And their vaunted bullpen is a bunch of pitchers in their 30’s...

 

Why does their age matter?

[devildavid]

They would have to fall a long way out of the WC to become sellers IMO. This is the Boston Red Sox, the team with the highest payroll and highest ticket prices, and this wasn't supposed to be a punted season.

 

All that should not matter. You do what is the smartest thing to do to improve the team. Maybe doing little is the smart move. They do have to look ahead and decide who they are willing to pay and who they are not.

[devildavid]

I meant that, on paper, our hitting, pitching and defense have improved (over the last 41 games) to be top 3 in the AL.

 

We "should be" winning more than we have been. We "should be" contenders.

 

We just need to start playing like I know we can and how the numbers show they can play.

 

On paper, they are still lagging behind on pitching/defense compared to some of the other WC contenders. The numbers thus far tell the story. This team is a WC contender at best, and they have real competition for that which should be taken seriously.

[devildavid]

My second half projections:

 

First half/ Second half

44-38/ 52-28

 

OPS

2018 Player 2019

.924 Bogey .900

.897 Devers .875

.893 JD M .925

.859 Moreland .750

.838 Betts .950

.801 Vaz .725

.800 Holt .725

.798 Beni .850

.785 Chavis .725

.714 JBJ .775

.571 Nunez .725

.564 Leon .550

.503 Pearce .750

 

Pitchers (listed by most first half IP)

ERA

first Pitcher second

3.82 Sale 2.80

4.52 Porcello 4.20

4.87 ERod 3.75

3.36 Price 3.25

2.72 Walden 3.00

5.59 Velazquez 4.50

1.70 Workman 2.20

4.19 Barnes 3.00

4.24 Brewer 4.25

3.34 Brasier 3.25

2.52 Hembree 3.25

6.00 Eovaldi 4.00

6.43 Johnson 4.75

0.00 Wright 3.50

 

 

Waaaaaaay too optimistic! Betts will not improve that much, nor Nunez. Pearce and Eovaldi may not play again, let alone improve on practically no performance in the first half. Sox only chance is the WC, despite your and Cora's optimism. There is no shame in admitting that is the only path. Once you get in, anything can happen. Remember 2004!

[dgalehouse]

People are making things more complicated than need be. I am a believer in " Occam' s Razor . " If old Occam were alive today , he would say ," I T B S" , " It's the bullpen stupid. " Edited June 30, 2019 by dgalehouse

[devildavid]

People are making things more complicated than need be. I am a believer in " Occam' s Razor . " If old Occam were alive today , he would say ," I T B P " , " It's the bullpen stupid. "

 

No, that is an oversimplification. It's the entire team. Cora admitted as much in the postgame interview today.

[jacksonianmarch]

It is the entire team, and it isn’t. The lineup over the past two games were nails, but the defense of Chavis killed them. The starter today was passable, the starter yesterday was abysmal. Yesterday, the mop up men sucked. Today, the bridge and “closer” blew it. I don’t think you need to tweak your offense at all.

[moonslav59]

MLB OPS Leaders Since May 12th (140+ PAs)

 

1.122 Trout

1.067 Bellinger

1.057 Santana

1.056 Torres

1.054 Yelich

1.048 Alonso

1.037 Freeman

1.032 Bogaerts

1.016 J Bell

1.014 Y Grandal

1.012 B Reynolds

1.002 M MUncy

1.002 Rendon

1.001 J Soto

.998 Jackie Bradley Jr. (16th)

 

26. JD Martinez .952

28. R Devers .951

4 in the top 28.

 

How about since May 20th?

6. JBJ 1.062

12. Devers 1.019

15. Bogaerts 1.009

 

Last 7 days:

1.611 Devers

1.560 JBJ

1.319 Chavis

1.250 Holt

1.200 Leon

1.193 Bogey

1.097 JD

.800 Hernandez

.750 Benintendi

 

.583 Betts

.481 Nunez

.414 Vaz

Edited June 30, 2019 by moonslav59

[harmony]

The Red Sox chances of advancing to the postseason have dropped below 50 percent at FiveThirtyEight:

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/

 

... but remain above 50 percent at FanGraphs:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

[jung]

It is the entire team, and it isn’t. The lineup over the past two games were nails, but the defense of Chavis killed them. The starter today was passable, the starter yesterday was abysmal. Yesterday, the mop up men sucked. Today, the bridge and “closer” blew it. I don’t think you need to tweak your offense at all.

 

Spending money on offense at this point would be foolhardy. That said it is clear what ales Mookie and JD. They are not getting enough of their pitches and are getting far more breaking pitches and struggling with them. If they do not resolve that, then the offense will surely not be as efficient. However IMO, the Sox have no choice but to ride the horses they have. Also whether we like it or not, its too easy to shut Chavis down. When push comes to shove the better pitchers will shut him down.

 

They will spend the money on pitching if anywhere and that is exactly what they should do if they are in fact going to spend money.

[dgalehouse]

The Red Sox chances of advancing to the postseason have dropped below 50 percent at FiveThirtyEight:

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/

 

... but remain above 50 percent at FanGraphs:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

Harm , Any word from FiveThirtyEight on the Mariners chances of staying out of the A.L. West cellar ?

[harmony]

Harm , Any word from FiveThirtyEight on the Mariners chances of staying out of the A.L. West cellar ?

No chance unless the Mariners move to the AL East.

[notin]

No chance unless the Mariners move to the AL East.

 

 

Yes moving to another division would keep them out of the AL West cellar...

[moonslav59]

This weekend sucked.

 

At this point I will not argue with anyone saying we are out of it.

 

I still have hope, but it is now just a tiny sliver.

 

We needed pen help long ago, but DD has chosen to wait it out. That wait may just turn us in to sellers.

[notin]

This weekend sucked.

 

At this point I will not argue with anyone saying we are out of it.

 

I still have hope, but it is now just a tiny sliver.

 

We needed pen help long ago, but DD has chosen to wait it out. That wait may just turn us in to sellers.

 

While I doubt the Sox are sellers, if they were, what expectations would anyone have for what they would sell?

[kenmeister]

While I doubt the Sox are sellers, if they were, what expectations would anyone have for what they would sell?

 

If the goal of selling is to free up cash, look to trade Sale, Price, and JDM.

[notin]

If the goal of selling is to free up cash, look to trade Sale, Price, and JDM.

 

So... give up on 2020 as well?