The annual Jackie Bradley Jr thread (2019 Edition)

[moonslav59]

So because he hit 2 HR in a series while hitting .200 avg

 

Why don't you look at his overall postseason stats which will give you more of realistic picture. The only positive you can find is when nit picking the high points.

 

Did you watch the playoffs?

 

JBJ was a huge part of us winning a ring... HUGE!

 

He had 10 rbi in the ALCS + WS (10 games), but it really sucked he hit about .200 in the playoffs. That's all that count.

[Slasher9]

Did you watch the playoffs?

 

JBJ was a huge part of us winning a ring... HUGE!

 

He had 10 rbi in the ALCS + WS (10 games), but it really sucked he hit about .200 in the playoffs. That's all that count.

 

Moon, he watched up until game 5 of the ALDS. then he went into hiding for awhile...

[moonslav59]

Moon, he watched up until game 5 of the ALDS. then he went into hiding for awhile...

 

Must have to only remember the importance of the .200 BA.

[Larry33]

Did you watch the playoffs?

 

JBJ was a huge part of us winning a ring... HUGE!

 

He had 10 rbi in the ALCS + WS (10 games), but it really sucked he hit about .200 in the playoffs. That's all that count.

 

The same could be said about Pablo Sandoval too but we all know how that turned out didn't we.

 

You can't just nit pick the good and ignore the bad it's the overall picture that counts how good a player really is and for the 7 years that JBJ has been in the MLB he's far from being an elite player.

 

His WAR over his tenure is 11.8 WAR over 7 years that's a measly 1.6 WAR per year isn't exactly a HOF caliber candidate.

[moonslav59]

The same could be said about Pablo Sandoval too but we all know how that turned out didn't we.

 

You can't just nit pick the good and ignore the bad it's the overall picture that counts how good a player really is and for the 7 years that JBJ has been in the MLB he's far from being an elite player.

 

His WAR over his tenure is 11.8 WAR over 7 years that's a measly 1.6 WAR per year isn't exactly a HOF caliber candidate.

Will you stop with the 7 years crap? You are counting this year and his first year as 2 years.

Pablo has absolutely nothing to do with JBJ.

Nobody is looking at just the good parts of his career. We all know he has had some horrible cold steaks that are way too often prolonged.

[Larry33]

Did you watch the playoffs?

 

JBJ was a huge part of us winning a ring... HUGE!

 

He had 10 rbi in the ALCS + WS (10 games), but it really sucked he hit about .200 in the playoffs. That's all that count.

 

I imagine that Steve Pearce had nothing to do with us winning the ring either Right.

[Larry33]

Will you stop with the 7 years crap? You are counting this year and his first year as 2 years.

Pablo has absolutely nothing to do with JBJ.

Nobody is looking at just the good parts of his career. We all know he has had some horrible cold steaks that are way too often prolonged.

 

Look at it as you want to please yourself but the facts are that he's 29 year old with a combined 7 year stint in the major with the same old problem he can't hit other than a few lucky steak once awhile. He's no rookie coming out the minors his label is pretty much define a good fielder with a below average bat.

[Bellhorn04]

His WAR over his tenure is 11.8 WAR over 7 years that's a measly 1.6 WAR per year isn't exactly a HOF caliber candidate.

 

To be precise, he's played 700 games. That's 4.67 150 game seasons. Using the 150 game yardstick his average WAR is 2.5 per season.

[Jasonbay44]

It must be fun to nitpick stats to fit your agenda. He brings up JBJ hitting .200, but ignores the .400 OBP, OPS over 1.000 and fantastic defense throughout the playoffs. Red Sox likely don't beat Astros without JBJ.

[moonslav59]

I imagine that Steve Pearce had nothing to do with us winning the ring either Right.

 

He had a big part, too.

 

"Big" does not mean there can only be one very important player that helps a team win a championship.

 

I'm not sure what your getting at. Is it that because Pearce (and Price and Eovaldi and...) had a big role, somehow JBJ's is less important?

 

(BTW, I wasn't the one who brought up the playoffs.)

 

[moonslav59]

Look at it as you want to please yourself but the facts are that he's 29 year old with a combined 7 year stint in the major with the same old problem he can't hit other than a few lucky steak once awhile. He's no rookie coming out the minors his label is pretty much define a good fielder with a below average bat.

 

His "lucky streak" last year was 106 games long.

 

His lucky streak from 2015-2016 was over 900 PAs long.

 

Look, I never said I expect JBJ to hit that well again, but to think that saying he has "no upside", when he has already shown he can have extended productive offensive streaks, some how "pleases yourself", then maybe I'm missing something.

 

Go ahead an count 5 weeks as a season--twice.

 

Go ahead on keep expecting JBJ to never do okay or better on offense ever again.

 

You might end up being right, but 29 is not over the hill, and if you count the 14 playoff games with the last 106 games of the regular season as a "lucky streak", then so be it. When you're 28 you can do those things, but now that he's 29, he's toast.

 

I'm choosing to think (or hope) that if he can hit over .790 for his previous 120 games before the start of this season, maybe he can hit over .750 the last 125+ games this year-- just a few months removed from that pro-longed "lucky streak".

 

Last 120 games of 2018, including the playoffs:

 

443 PAs/390 ABs

99 H

43 BB

31 2B

4 3B

14 HR

60 rbi

64 R

3 SF

.254 BA

.323 OBP

.461 SLG

.784 OPS

 

.784 way way way back so long ago!

[moonslav59]

To be precise, he's played 700 games. That's 4.67 150 game seasons. Using the 150 game yardstick his average WAR is 2.5 per season.

 

...and one would expect a better WAR when you factor in Ellsbury had about 600 more PAs with the Sox than JBJ has right now. That's 23% more than JBJ has.

 

 

 

 

Edited May 7, 2019 by moonslav59

[Slasher9]

The same could be said about Pablo Sandoval too but we all know how that turned out didn't we.

 

You can't just nit pick the good and ignore the bad it's the overall picture that counts how good a player really is and for the 7 years that JBJ has been in the MLB he's far from being an elite player.

 

His WAR over his tenure is 11.8 WAR over 7 years that's a measly 1.6 WAR per year isn't exactly a HOF caliber candidate.

Hahahaha. Nobody called him an elite player. (I would call his defense elite). No one called him a HoF player.

Strawman.

Getting hot in FLA I guess...

[redsoxrules]

Will you stop with the 7 years crap? You are counting this year and his first year as 2 years.

Pablo has absolutely nothing to do with JBJ.

Nobody is looking at just the good parts of his career. We all know he has had some horrible cold steaks that are way too often prolonged.

 

I like how people cherry pick stats.

Well how about you remove his 30 game hitting streak a few years ago and let me know what his career numbers look like after that

[moonslav59]

I like how people cherry pick stats.

Well how about you remove his 30 game hitting streak a few years ago and let me know what his career numbers look like after that

 

Very true. The difference is, I would not argue JBJ is close to Ellsbury, if you took away his hottest streak(s).

 

My point was that JBJ is about as good as Ellsbury, if you take away Jacboy's freak season, and Some strongly disagree with that position.

 

That's fine with me, but nobody is saying JBJ is an elite offensive player or HOF candidate. We are not acting or implying he is even close to that.

 

I responded to the points that JBJ had no upside, despite finishing last year with 120 straight games of about the most consistent hitting we've ever seen from him.

 

I responded to the point that those 120 games and the 900+ PAs from his 2015-2016 seasons can hardly be called "lucky streaks." They were both way too long to be lucky. They both prove he has "possible" upside, because he's already shown he can do it- twice for long stretches and several more times for 3-5 week torrid stretches here and there.

 

I'm fine with anyone thinking Ellsbury is better than JBJ, but I responded to the statement that he was twice as good as JBJ. He was and is not.

 

Yes, I cherry-picked stats to make my points, but how else can you respond to a statement that his hot streaks were all lucky? I had to show some evidence that 120 games and another of 900+ PAs show it's more than luck and it may be repeatable at age 29.

 

[Larry33]

Hahahaha. Nobody called him an elite player. (I would call his defense elite). No one called him a HoF player.

Strawman.

Getting hot in FLA I guess...

 

Ok you think his defense is so elite let's do a comparison with Kevin Kiermaier from TB Rays

 

They're both the same age 29 they both broke into the league the same year 2013 one was drafted in the 1st round the other in the 31st round.

 

Bradley Jr. 701 Games 2611 PA 11.8 WAR

 

Kiermaier 583 Games 2225 PA 24.9 WAR

 

You claim that Bradley is so elite on defense his best defensive WAR was in 2014 where he ranked 9th. Kiermaier had 2 season where he ranked 1st for defensive WAR in 2015-2016. Bradley is a good defensive player but there's others who are equally as good and some are even better. He's not as irreplaceable as you guys try to make him out to be. We hear it every year wait till he heats up or next year will be better time has come and time has gone what you see is what you've got and right now it getting a bit harder to even justify him being an everyday player.There's already a 72 mil dollars signing sitting in the minors because of this.

[notin]

The

Ok you think his defense is so elite let's do a comparison with Kevin Kiermaier from TB Rays

 

They're both the same age 29 they both broke into the league the same year 2013 one was drafted in the 1st round the other in the 31st round.

 

Bradley Jr. 701 Games 2611 PA 11.8 WAR

 

Kiermaier 583 Games 2225 PA 24.9 WAR

 

You claim that Bradley is so elite on defense his best defensive WAR was in 2014 where he ranked 9th. Kiermaier had 2 season where he ranked 1st for defensive WAR in 2015-2016. Bradley is a good defensive player but there's others who are equally as good and some are even better. He's not as irreplaceable as you guys try to make him out to be. We hear it every year wait till he heats up or next year will be better time has come and time has gone what you see is what you've got and right now it getting a bit harder to even justify him being an everyday player.There's already a 72 mil dollars signing sitting in the minors because of this.

 

 

I would never say Bradley was irreplaceable. There are a few CFs I agree are better than he is. But none of them are in Boston (except Betts, who is arguably better). And I like how Bradley plays the position.

[moonslav59]

Ok you think his defense is so elite let's do a comparison with Kevin Kiermaier from TB Rays

 

They're both the same age 29 they both broke into the league the same year 2013 one was drafted in the 1st round the other in the 31st round.

 

Bradley Jr. 701 Games 2611 PA 11.8 WAR

 

Kiermaier 583 Games 2225 PA 24.9 WAR

 

You claim that Bradley is so elite on defense his best defensive WAR was in 2014 where he ranked 9th. Kiermaier had 2 season where he ranked 1st for defensive WAR in 2015-2016. Bradley is a good defensive player but there's others who are equally as good and some are even better. He's not as irreplaceable as you guys try to make him out to be. We hear it every year wait till he heats up or next year will be better time has come and time has gone what you see is what you've got and right now it getting a bit harder to even justify him being an everyday player.There's already a 72 mil dollars signing sitting in the minors because of this.

 

1. Elite does not mean nobody else is as good as you.

2. Why bring up "elite" defense and then show WAR numbers that include offense?

 

I'd be fine with replacing JBJ and Leon with equal defenders who can hit better.

 

Tell me how we do that while staying under the max spending limit or by not opening a massive hole somewhere else by trading for such a player.

 

(Note: I would never and have never argued JBJ is the best defensive CF'er in MLB. I have said he's the best defensive SOX CF'er I have ever seen. That's much different.)

 

Why must you continuously argue against positions nobody is taking?

Edited May 7, 2019 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Jackie really does need to turn it around. He has un ungodly bWAR of minus 1.4. What's especially concerning is that his defensive WAR numbers are about as bad as his offensive WAR numbers.

[jung]

The only way for this team still very much dependent on its starting pitching to off JBJ would be to look for a superlative CF defender that was at the least more consistent from the batters box. They are out there. I would prefer Kiermaier to JBJ every day of the week and twice on Sunday. But I don't get the impression the Sox are devoting that much effort to it.

 

They have to be able to both trade JBJ at a point where they don't get a bag of balls back AND end up with a better solution for CF on a team that in the main depends on its starting rotation. Thats a tall order. If the Sox ever pull it off, I would attribute it to luck as much as anything else. Anyway I don't see it happening while DD is bidding for another Crown before the window closes on his Rotation and his bucket of young star everyday players. If the window does close on his Rotation, then the necessity for a really superlative defender in CF might just not be as compelling.

Edited May 7, 2019 by jung

[Slasher9]

1. Elite does not mean nobody else is as good as you.

2. Why bring up "elite" defense and then show WAR numbers that include offense?

 

I'd be fine with replacing JBJ and Leon with equal defenders who can hit better.

 

Tell me how we do that while staying under the max spending limit or by not opening a massive hole somewhere else by trading for such a player.

 

(Note: I would never and have never argued JBJ is the best defensive CF'er in MLB. I have said he's the best defensive SOX CF'er I have ever seen. That's much different.)

 

Why must you continuously argue against positions nobody is taking?

 

because: babe

[notin]

1. Elite does not mean nobody else is as good as you.

2. Why bring up "elite" defense and then show WAR numbers that include offense?

 

I'd be fine with replacing JBJ and Leon with equal defenders who can hit better.

 

Tell me how we do that while staying under the max spending limit or by not opening a massive hole somewhere else by trading for such a player.

 

(Note: I would never and have never argued JBJ is the best defensive CF'er in MLB. I have said he's the best defensive SOX CF'er I have ever seen. That's much different.)

 

Why must you continuously argue against positions nobody is taking?

 

 

I did some looking into the building blocks of this defensive Bradley/Kiermaier thing.

 

On a per inning basis, Bradley gets more assists, makes more double plays and fewer errors than Kiermaier. But Kiermaier gets more chances. Now more chances does explain the errors difference, which is very slight. (JBJ has a substantial advantage in the other 2 categories.)

 

So how much is pitching staff? If your pitchers give up more fly balls, you get more chances. Or is it that Kiermaier simply covers more ground. I can only look at the first part right now. Factoring in FB%, K%, HR/FB% and IFFB%, the two staffs are very equal with regards to “playable” fly balls in the OF. Not enough to make any difference in the defensive metrics, though.(The teams differ by 3 FBs per opposing 10,000 ABs.)

 

So it appears Kiermaier simply makes more plays. That helps his case massively. But there are two other important factors that do slight JBJ.

 

1) Ballpark. Fenway has massive walls in left and straightaway center. A ball could hit these walls 12-15 feet up and still is considered “playable” in my numbers, when in truth, it is not. While UZR can account for these being unplayable and not penalize Bradley, it does change the hypothetical “lost opportunities.” The OF wall in Tampa is closer to 9’ high, giving a significant reduction in margin for unplayable “playable” flyballs in Tampa.

 

2) Betts. Betts covers more ground than Wyoming’s area code and takes plays from Bradley, and on the side with more outfield ground to cover and lower walls. Kiermaier has never played next to an elite defensive outfielder anywhere close to the caliber of Betts.

 

So is Kiermaier a better defender because he has better skills? Or because he has a better opportunity and Tampa needs him to be better?

 

If the Sox and Rays swapped center fielders, which team really benefits more? And which player does?

Edited May 7, 2019 by notin

[moonslav59]

Jackie really does need to turn it around. He has un ungodly bWAR of minus 1.4. What's especially concerning is that his defensive WAR numbers are about as bad as his offensive WAR numbers.

 

I agree. His defense does not sustain a .450 OPS.

 

Even .550 is too low.

 

.650 might be the tipping point, but I wouldn't argue against .675 all that much.

[moonslav59]

I did some looking into the building blocks of this defensive Bradley/Kiermaier thing.

 

On a per inning basis, Bradley gets more assists, makes more double plays and fewer errors than Kiermaier. But Kiermaier gets more chances. Now more chances does explain the errors difference, which is very slight. (JBJ has a substantial advantage in the other 2 categories.)

 

So how much is pitching staff? If your pitchers give up more fly balls, you get more chances. Or is it that Kiermaier simply covers more ground. I can only look at the first part right now. Factoring in FB%, K%, HR/FB% and IFFB%, the two staffs are very equal with regards to “playable” fly balls in the OF. Not enough to make any difference in the defensive metrics, though.(The teams differ by 3 FBs per opposing 10,000 ABs.)

 

So it appears Kiermaier simply makes more plays. That helps his case massively. But there are two other important factors that do slight JBJ.

 

1) Ballpark. Fenway has massive walls in left and straightaway center. A ball could hit these walls 12-15 feet up and still is considered “playable” in my numbers, when in truth, it is not. While UZR can account for these being unplayable and not penalize Bradley, it does change the hypothetical “lost opportunities.” The OF wall in Tampa is closer to 9’ high, giving a significant reduction in margin for unplayable “playable” flyballs in Tampa.

 

2) Betts. Betts covers more ground than Wyoming’s area code and takes plays from Bradley, and on the side with more outfield ground to cover and lower walls. Kiermaier has never played next to an elite defensive outfielder anywhere close to the caliber of Betts.

 

So is Kiermaier a better defender because he has better skills? Or because he has a better opportunity and Tampa needs him to be better?

 

If the Sox and Rays swapped center fielders, which team really benefits more? And which player does?

 

Inside Edge gives these numbers. If you look at percentage of plays made by degree of difficulty, it should factor out the number of chances one CF'er gets vs the other:

 

2017-2019

 

1-10% Diffuclty

26% JBJ (27 total plays)

23% KK (17)

 

10-40% (14)

73% KK (11)

 

40-60%

62% KK (13)

50% JBJ (10)

 

60-90%

96% JBJ (29)

95% KK (19)

 

90-100%

100% JBJ (551)

99.5% KK (438)

[Larry33]

I did some looking into the building blocks of this defensive Bradley/Kiermaier thing.

 

On a per inning basis, Bradley gets more assists, makes more double plays and fewer errors than Kiermaier. But Kiermaier gets more chances. Now more chances does explain the errors difference, which is very slight. (JBJ has a substantial advantage in the other 2 categories.)

 

So how much is pitching staff? If your pitchers give up more fly balls, you get more chances. Or is it that Kiermaier simply covers more ground. I can only look at the first part right now. Factoring in FB%, K%, HR/FB% and IFFB%, the two staffs are very equal with regards to “playable” fly balls in the OF. Not enough to make any difference in the defensive metrics, though.(The teams differ by 3 FBs per opposing 10,000 ABs.)

 

So it appears Kiermaier simply makes more plays. That helps his case massively. But there are two other important factors that do slight JBJ.

 

1) Ballpark. Fenway has massive walls in left and straightaway center. A ball could hit these walls 12-15 feet up and still is considered “playable” in my numbers, when in truth, it is not. While UZR can account for these being unplayable and not penalize Bradley, it does change the hypothetical “lost opportunities.” The OF wall in Tampa is closer to 9’ high, giving a significant reduction in margin for unplayable “playable” flyballs in Tampa.

 

2) Betts. Betts covers more ground than Wyoming’s area code and takes plays from Bradley, and on the side with more outfield ground to cover and lower walls. Kiermaier has never played next to an elite defensive outfielder anywhere close to the caliber of Betts.

 

So is Kiermaier a better defender because he has better skills? Or because he has a better opportunity and Tampa needs him to be better?

 

If the Sox and Rays swapped center fielders, which team really benefits more? And which player does?

 

How about George Springer or Kevin Pillar who can actually pick em as good as anybody with same service time as JBJ and the same age both with a better bat and WAR

[Bellhorn04]

How about George Springer or Kevin Pillar who can actually pick em as good as anybody with same service time as JBJ and the same age both with a better bat and WAR

 

Pillar is a worse hitter than JBJ.

[Larry33]

1. Elite does not mean nobody else is as good as you.

2. Why bring up "elite" defense and then show WAR numbers that include offense?

 

I'd be fine with replacing JBJ and Leon with equal defenders who can hit better.

 

Tell me how we do that while staying under the max spending limit or by not opening a massive hole somewhere else by trading for such a player.

 

(Note: I would never and have never argued JBJ is the best defensive CF'er in MLB. I have said he's the best defensive SOX CF'er I have ever seen. That's much different.)

 

Why must you continuously argue against positions nobody is taking?

 

How about Freddy Lynn ???

[notin]

How about George Springer or Kevin Pillar who can actually pick em as good as anybody with same service time as JBJ and the same age both with a better bat and WAR

 

What about them?

 

I’m not redoing all the math and looking everything up just to notice that both Pillar and Springer don’t lose chances to Betts....

[notin]

Inside Edge gives these numbers. If you look at percentage of plays made by degree of difficulty, it should factor out the number of chances one CF'er gets vs the other:

 

2017-2019

 

1-10% Diffuclty

26% JBJ (27 total plays)

23% KK (17)

 

10-40% (14)

73% KK (11)

 

40-60%

62% KK (13)

50% JBJ (10)

 

60-90%

96% JBJ (29)

95% KK (19)

 

90-100%

100% JBJ (551)

99.5% KK (438)

 

And it’s possibly some of those 10-60% chances that Betts is taking and Avisail Garcia isn’t...

[illinoisredsox]

How about Freddy Lynn ???

 

JBJ is a better defender than Lynn was (and Lynn was good). Lynn was obviously the better all-around player.