What are the chances of Porcello being offered a contract extension?

[TylerD]

A lot of times it seems like when a player says "I want to stay with this team: he means "I want to stay with this team if they can meet my price." Porcello might be willing to take whatever the Sox offer, but he does have an agent who will tell him what he is worth and what he would be leaving on the table. And no one hires an agent so that they can take a hometown discount...

 

Valid point.

[moonslav59]

8 mill a season seems reasonable and if he wants to stay here like he says he does I don’t se why he wouldn’t take.

 

Because, if he has a good 2020, he'll be looking at a much bigger & longer deal, perhaps his last meaningful big contract.

[harmony]

8 mill a season seems reasonable and if he wants to stay here like he says he does I don’t se why he wouldn’t take.

MLB Trade Rumors predicts a one-year, $11 million contract for Rick Porcello:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2020.html

[jacksonianmarch]

MLB Trade Rumors predicts a one-year, $11 million contract for Rick Porcello:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2020.html

 

It won't be that large in terms of guarantees. Maybe with incentives it will reach $11 mil, who knows. My bet for Porcello is a $5 mil contract with a bunch of escalators for games started or innings pitched

[notin]

It won't be that large in terms of guarantees. Maybe with incentives it will reach $11 mil, who knows. My bet for Porcello is a $5 mil contract with a bunch of escalators for games started or innings pitched

 

He does have the advantage of being on 30 (31 in December). Most of the free agent starters younger than him have a significant history of injury...

[jacksonianmarch]

He does have the advantage of being on 30 (31 in December). Most of the free agent starters younger than him have a significant history of injury...

 

True, but there is a lot of tread on those tires and he looked done last year. Stuff was worse than usual, couldn't find his breaking ball. Nobody is going to guarantee him much coming off the year he had

[TylerD]

True, but there is a lot of tread on those tires and he looked done last year. Stuff was worse than usual, couldn't find his breaking ball. Nobody is going to guarantee him much coming off the year he had

 

And yet strange enough he finished the season solid. Well better than the rest of the season. The guy just doesn't get hurt or seem to get tired. That could all change now but that is all speculation. Going off his past numbers, he is nearly a guarantee to give you 5 innings plus every time he is called upon. Also he seems to statistically have a bad season and then a good season, so going by that formula this season might not be too bad if he works on his mechanics and stays with his 2 seam.

[moonslav59]

And yet strange enough he finished the season solid. Well better than the rest of the season. The guy just doesn't get hurt or seem to get tired. That could all change now but that is all speculation. Going off his past numbers, he is nearly a guarantee to give you 5 innings plus every time he is called upon. Also he seems to statistically have a bad season and then a good season, so going by that formula this season might not be too bad if he works on his mechanics and stays with his 2 seam.

 

You seem to put a lot of stock in that 17 IP to end the season.

 

I do think there's a good chance Porcello bounces back next year. I think some team will pay him $10M/1 for 2020.

 

I hope it's not us.

[Carpin]

You seem to put a lot of stock in that 17 IP to end the season.

 

I do think there's a good chance Porcello bounces back next year. I think some team will pay him $10M/1 for 2020.

 

I hope it's not us.

 

I said this before and I still believe it. Porcello would be a god fit with the Astros as a reclamation project, but don't think he will get 10 millions as a FA

[moonslav59]

I said this before and I still believe it. Porcello would be a god fit with the Astros as a reclamation project, but don't think he will get 10 millions as a FA

 

I think he'll get $8M/1 with an easy $2M bonus based on GS'd and/or IP.

[mvp 78]

You seem to put a lot of stock in that 17 IP to end the season.

 

I do think there's a good chance Porcello bounces back next year. I think some team will pay him $10M/1 for 2020.

 

I hope it's not us.

 

An easy 8 figure deal IMO based on IP alone.

[notin]

You seem to put a lot of stock in that 17 IP to end the season.

 

I do think there's a good chance Porcello bounces back next year. I think some team will pay him $10M/1 for 2020.

 

I hope it's not us.

 

The Sox do need a SP and it's easier to do worse than Porcello than better on their budget...

[vegasbob]

Trying to handicap Porcello's value, his last 17 innings or next deal doesn't mean too much until we get the indication that Sale's arm is still attached and Price can also go to ST healthy. Then you can debate Rick P's chances.

[moonslav59]

210 IP of crap is not helpful.

 

200+ IP of good pitching is.

 

Which Porcello shows up in 2020?

[notin]

210 IP of crap is not helpful.

 

200+ IP of good pitching is.

 

Which Porcello shows up in 2020?

 

Well, 210 IP of crap still saves the bullpen. Even with his ERA over 5.5, Porcello still was worth more fWAR than Zach Davies (10-7, 3.55)...

[Bellhorn04]

210 IP of crap is not helpful.

 

200+ IP of good pitching is.

 

Which Porcello shows up in 2020?

 

Didn't you used to like having Wakefield as an innings-eating 5th starter, even if his ERA was 4.75?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't think he shows up here, because someone will offer him a two or three-year deal, and at a price worth a lot more than 25% of his last salary.

 

Porcello was bad in 2019, but led the world champions in victories and innings pitched just two years ago. A guy who averages 15 wins and 200 innings for 11 straight seasons will have value to a lot of teams not in the Cole/Stras sweepstakes.

[harmony]

In April 2015 the Red Sox signed Rick Porcello to a four-year, $82.5 million extension when the righthander was coming off three seasons with an ERA+ of 100 over combined 558 innings.

 

Porcello, now nearly five years later, is coming off three seasons with an ERA+ of 96 over a combined 569 innings.

 

A durable innings-eater has value despite mediocre performance.

[moonslav59]

Didn't you used to like having Wakefield as an innings-eating 5th starter, even if his ERA was 4.75?

 

1) 4.75 was better than Porcello's 2019.

2) Even adjusting to inflation, he wasn't about to make $8-10M a year.

3) Part of Wake's bad numbers was because we often did not have a catcher that could catch the knuckleball very well.

 

Yes, I defended him towards the end, too, when his ERA did go over 5.00, but I was not expecting 5.00+ those years. I also did a painstakingly difficult study of every earned run he allowed one year (maybe his second to last year) and found many of the runs allowed were on infield and bloop hits and WPs. I also did a study where I found the SP'er who started the game after Wake had an ERA about 0.50 lower than when not starting after Wake.

 

No, I would not pay the 2009-2011 Wake $8-11M to pitch for us in 2020.

[moonslav59]

Well, 210 IP of crap still saves the bullpen. Even with his ERA over 5.5, Porcello still was worth more fWAR than Zach Davies (10-7, 3.55)...

 

We used an enlarged pen all this year. With 26 men next year, the need for 210 IP is lessened to a small extent.

 

It's not that I don't value IP. I was a huge Porcello defender up until 2019. 12 starts with 5 or more runs allowed is just too much for the extra IP to outweigh, IMO.

 

Yes, the IP had value, but overall, it's not worth $8M. If he pitches like 2018, like he might, I'd offer more, but he's now on the wrong side of 30, and I think it's time to move on.

[TylerD]

I don't think he shows up here, because someone will offer him a two or three-year deal, and at a price worth a lot more than 25% of his last salary.

 

Porcello was bad in 2019, but led the world champions in victories and innings pitched just two years ago. A guy who averages 15 wins and 200 innings for 11 straight seasons will have value to a lot of teams not in the Cole/Stras sweepstakes.

 

Ya I can't see him wanting to stay if a team like Baltimore offers him 3 years 30 mill or something like that...... But remains to be seen if that will happen.

[moonslav59]

If you look at what much lesser and/or older pitchers have gotten recently, you won't be surprised if he makes $11M/1 or $20M/2.

[vegasbob]

Since we are going to wear out ol' Rick P. until we get Sale's medical evaluation ( as if we will see the real story) , how about realizing just how much money an $82.5 million or even a $5 million/1 contract is in reality? Even well after taxes and agent fees , a house for Mom, 4 new Rolls Royces, a nice yacht, 529 plans for the kids, we are talking about 30 year olds with net worths in the mid 8 figures. This is generational , eternal wealth if reasonably invested.

 

My point is that at 30 with maybe only a few years left on the field, wouldn't some (not all) professional athletes rather play for a winning, competitive team than just show up to get beat like a big bass drum ? The player may no longer be good enough to secure a roster spot on a WS winner, but I would rather take $5 million from the RedSox/Astros/Yankees/Dodgers etc than $10 million from the Marlins, Rangers, Mets, Orioles, Blue Jays after having secured my family's future with a $82 million deal now completed. I know thw MLBPA and my agent will choke, but it is a consideration. I don't know Rick and if pride goeth before a fall but just not sure what Rick would do with $12million pitching for the Mariners.

[Slasher9]

If you look at what much lesser and/or older pitchers have gotten recently, you won't be surprised if he makes $11M/1 or $20M/2.

 

hence my $16MM / 2 year contract offer. which you thought was too high?

[moonslav59]

hence my $16MM / 2 year contract offer. which you thought was too high?

 

You misunderstand my position.

 

I think he will get $9-11M/1 or $17-20M/2, but I do not want us to be the ones paying that much.

 

I thought what we had to pay Price was "too high" but necessary.

 

I do not think signing Porcello is necessary or pragmatic.

[Bellhorn04]

The big question for Chaim is how he replaces Porcello's innings, especially with the uncertain health of our big guns.

 

We could be looking at a lot of bullpen games this year, that's for sure.

[Slasher9]

You misunderstand my position.

 

I think he will get $9-11M/1 or $17-20M/2, but I do not want us to be the ones paying that much.

 

I thought what we had to pay Price was "too high" but necessary.

 

I do not think signing Porcello is necessary or pragmatic.

 

it will be difficult to find pitchers for all the innings we are going to need them for. unless you believe ESP will each get 25+ starts and eat innings. i dont see that happening. to me Porkys value to the Red Sox increased dramatically with the way those 3 limped into the offseason.

[moonslav59]

it will be difficult to find pitchers for all the innings we are going to need them for. unless you believe ESP will each get 25+ starts and eat innings. i dont see that happening. to me Porkys value to the Red Sox increased dramatically with the way those 3 limped into the offseason.

 

To me, we need to spend our very limited budget on several players, and signing Porcello to $8M a year would take up all of our spending budget and leave nothing for the pen, 1B, C and a replacement for JBJ- not that $8M will fill all those slots.

[moonslav59]

The big question for Chaim is how he replaces Porcello's innings, especially with the uncertain health of our big guns.

 

We could be looking at a lot of bullpen games this year, that's for sure.

 

We also get to replace these innings pitched and PAs:

 

174 Porcello 5.52

54 Cashner 6.20

31 J Smith 5.81

20 Shawaryn 9.74

19 Thornburg 7.71

15 Chacin 7.36

8 Kelley 8.61

6 Wright 8.53

 

PAs

335 Moreland .835

295 Holt .771

174 Nunez .548

99 Pearce .503

 

Maybe JBJ & Leon

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Chaim has a gargantuan, if not impossible task fielding a competitive team in 2020 and staying under 208 million.