What are the chances of Porcello being offered a contract extension?

[Slasher9]

Your very first sentence was “be careful buying into cream puff division”

 

You literally said that or something close to that. I’m saying it is a cream puff division. In fact it’s f***ing dogshit. If someone disagrees with that they don’t understand football very well. Whether it makes a difference to the patriots or not, I really don’t care. They are a very good team but the division stinks and has for years. That’s my point. Maybe if they played in the NFC North it would be different. It’s always different when you play in a division as oppose to playing a team once every 4 years. They study you, hence why the Dolphins have success against the Pats.

 

NFC North?

mmm kay.

since the Brady era began:

 

vs Chicago = 5-0

vs GB = 3-2

vs Vik = 5-0

vs Det = 4-1

total 17-3 85% winning percentage. wish we played that division 2x per year as we are only 78% winning percentage.

do you want to try another division?

[Slasher9]

Your very first sentence was “be careful buying into cream puff division”

 

You literally said that or something close to that. I’m saying it is a cream puff division. In fact it’s f***ing dogshit. If someone disagrees with that they don’t understand football very well. Whether it makes a difference to the patriots or not, I really don’t care. They are a very good team but the division stinks and has for years. That’s my point. Maybe if they played in the NFC North it would be different. It’s always different when you play in a division as oppose to playing a team once every 4 years. They study you, hence why the Dolphins have success against the Pats.

 

Non division games since 2010:

 

Tennessee 42-51 45.2%

Houston 44-55 44.4%

Indy 44-56 44.0%

Jax 26-68 27.7%

 

NE 87-25 77.7%

Buf 42-51 45.2%

Mia 42-51 45.2%

NYJ 41-52 44.1%

 

you know what "non-division" means, right? looks like the south is a bit more "soft" then the east.

[TylerD]

NFC North?

mmm kay.

since the Brady era began:

 

vs Chicago = 5-0

vs GB = 3-2

vs Vik = 5-0

vs Det = 4-1

total 17-3 85% winning percentage. wish we played that division 2x per year as we are only 78% winning percentage.

do you want to try another division?

 

If you look back at what I said I did mention since 2010. No chance Brady dominates those teams this last 10 years. Patriots division was also respectable before 2010. You said “don’t buy into the division being cream puff” in the last 9 years it has been. Arguably one of the worst in the NFL outside of NFC West. If it wasn’t for the Pats 9 wins would win that division most years or at least get you in the playoffs.

There really is no argument here. The division is s***. Most years the worst in the NFL. Patriots are a damn good team, but I guarantee their success rate changes if they are in another division especially the last 9 years.

Edited September 24, 2019 by TylerD

[TylerD]

Non division games since 2010:

 

Tennessee 42-51 45.2%

Houston 44-55 44.4%

Indy 44-56 44.0%

Jax 26-68 27.7%

 

NE 87-25 77.7%

Buf 42-51 45.2%

Mia 42-51 45.2%

NYJ 41-52 44.1%

 

you know what "non-division" means, right? looks like the south is a bit more "soft" then the east.

 

 

No need to be condescending. I understand football perfectly and what non division means.

 

You’re right. The Pats division is terrifying. People cringe at the fact of playing the Dolphins and Jets lmao.

[Slasher9]

If you look back at what I said I did mention since 2010. No chance Brady dominates those teams this last 10 years. Patriots division was also respectable before 2010. You said “don’t buy into the division being cream puff” in the last 9 years it has been. Arguably one of the worst in the NFL outside of NFC West. If it wasn’t for the Pats 9 wins would win that division most years or at least get you in the playoffs.

There really is no argument here. The division is s***. Most years the worst in the NFL. Patriots are a damn good team, but I guarantee their success rate changes if they are in another division especially the last 9 years.

 

since 2010:

vs Det 2-1

vs GB 2-1

vs Vik 3-0

vs Chic 3-0

total 10-2 83.33% winning percentage

 

Since 2010:

patriots vs non AFC East teams: 87-25 / 77.7 winning %

patriots vs AFC East teams: 45-12 / 78.9% winning %

 

please show me in the above numbers (or any numbers you can come up with) how the Patriots destiny would have been any different playing in another division.

[Slasher9]

Since 2010:

 

Colts vs Bills = 2-3

Colts vs Mia = 3-1

Colts vs NYJ = 2-4

 

Colts vs lowly AFC East (not including NE) = 7-8

Colts vs lowly AFC East (not including NE) = 46.67%

[TylerD]

Since 2010:

 

Colts vs Bills = 2-3

Colts vs Mia = 3-1

Colts vs NYJ = 2-4

 

Colts vs lowly AFC East (not including NE) = 7-8

Colts vs lowly AFC East (not including NE) = 46.67%

 

Jets were good in 2010, that was the rare year that a team challenged the Pats and look. Pats didn’t make the Super Bowl that season. 2 of the 3 losses to the Bills were in the snow and they didn’t have Luck. That’s a padded stat. Colts are god awful in the snow, unfortunate part of cheering for a dome team

 

I stand corrected one loss to the bills was at the start of the 2015 season. They just played bad. Colts usually have a game or two where they play down to the competition.

Edited September 24, 2019 by TylerD

[TylerD]

since 2010:

vs Det 2-1

vs GB 2-1

vs Vik 3-0

vs Chic 3-0

total 10-2 83.33% winning percentage

 

Since 2010:

patriots vs non AFC East teams: 87-25 / 77.7 winning %

patriots vs AFC East teams: 45-12 / 78.9% winning %

 

please show me in the above numbers (or any numbers you can come up with) how the Patriots destiny would have been any different playing in another division.

 

For the record I said they would still be a dynasty. I don’t know how it would have changed, I do know things change significantly in divisions. You study a team a lot more. Hence why the Cardinals usually have success against the Seahawks once a year and Dolphins with the Pats. However it makes things easier when you have a tram like the Bills who since the Brady era have a record of 83-130 and the Dolphins a record of 98-115 with no playoff wins between the two. The only team to remotely challenge the Pats has been the Jets

[TylerD]

Since 2010:

 

Colts vs Bills = 2-3

Colts vs Mia = 3-1

Colts vs NYJ = 2-4

 

Colts vs lowly AFC East (not including NE) = 7-8

Colts vs lowly AFC East (not including NE) = 46.67%

 

 

Also how the Colts lost to the Jets last year I will never understand. That can go toward your stats but the Jets were not good last season, average at best and the Colts were extremely hot down the stretch but started the season horrible. No team in the NFL last season would have rather play the Colts than the Jets I can guarantee you that.

Edited September 24, 2019 by TylerD

[Swiharts Ghost]

If they change the ball back ....yes .

[TylerD]

Porcello finished the season with an ERA of 2.50 in his last 3 starts. Wasn’t a good year for him but I still don’t think we should let him walk. Gonna nite us in the ass depending who we get in place of him.

[Swiharts Ghost]

Porcello finished the season with an ERA of 2.50 in his last 3 starts. Wasn’t a good year for him but I still don’t think we should let him walk. Gonna nite us in the ass depending who we get in place of him.

 

I agree .Rick has issues no doubt but the guy is so durable and has been through the battles I'd go 2 years 14 total with bonuses reaching 20 .I understand wanting to turn the page but I think his woes may very well lead back to how spring was handled .

[redsoxrules]

Porcello finished the season with an ERA of 2.50 in his last 3 starts. Wasn’t a good year for him but I still don’t think we should let him walk. Gonna nite us in the ass depending who we get in place of him.

 

I'm sorry but unless he signs back for 5 million he's not worth it. Plenty of pitchers out there who can give us an 5 era. No shortage of those. No need to break the bank for one. His cy young year was a fluke. People need to realize that. Take that year out and he was essentially a 5 era pitcher for us during his time in Boston.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm sorry but unless he signs back for 5 million he's not worth it. Plenty of pitchers out there who can give us an 5 era. No shortage of those. No need to break the bank for one. His cy young year was a fluke. People need to realize that. Take that year out and he was essentially a 5 era pitcher for us during his time in Boston.

 

If you just look at his ERA, sure, it's not great. But Porcello has some very good qualities. He takes the ball every fifth day without fail and he puts up a lot of Quality Starts. He's not going to be as easy to replace as you think.

[oldtimer]

If you just look at his ERA, sure, it's not great. But Porcello has some very good qualities. He takes the ball every fifth day without fail and he puts up a lot of Quality Starts. He's not going to be as easy to replace as you think.

 

On the Sox in 2020 it will be how much we have to spend that will be a major facor in who we keep and who we get rid of. Guys like Porcello and Moreland have value but can we keep guys like them and still manage to keep our core?

[S5Dewey]

I'm sorry but unless he signs back for 5 million he's not worth it. Plenty of pitchers out there who can give us an 5 era. No shortage of those. No need to break the bank for one. His cy young year was a fluke. People need to realize that. Take that year out and he was essentially a 5 era pitcher for us during his time in Boston.

 

For the sake of clarification, Porcillo has a lifetime ERA of 4.36 which ballooned up to 5.52 in 2019 but "for the sake of argument" I'll accept that he's "essentally a 5 ERA pitcher for us" even though 2019 is the only year it got to 5.00.

 

That having been said, IMO ERA is another of those stats that has to be considered with other factors. In Rick's case he's averaged almost exactly 6 innings per start over his career. If you take that 5 ERA and calculate what it means over 6 innings you learn that he's given up 3.33 runs per six innings. That doesn't make him an Ace or even a #2 on anybody's team but he's a very respectable #4 or guy on the Red Sox.

 

That doesn't mean I'd pay him another $21M to pitch in 2020 but I certainly wouldn't low-ball him at $5-7M either. He's been an upfront guy who's worked hard to come back from the start he had, and he's always shouldered the blame for his bad performances. He appears to me to be the kind of guy who'd entertain an offer in the $10-12M range to try to reestablish himself.

 

I could do that.

[Bellhorn04]

On the Sox in 2020 it will be how much we have to spend that will be a major facor in who we keep and who we get rid of. Guys like Porcello and Moreland have value but can we keep guys like them and still manage to keep our core?

 

No question that with Porcello it'll all come down to his price. The thing is, if he's gone, we're going to have to replace him and his 180 innings, likely with another free agent.

[Slasher9]

For the sake of clarification, Porcillo has a lifetime ERA of 4.36 which ballooned up to 5.52 in 2019 but "for the sake of argument" I'll accept that he's "essentally a 5 ERA pitcher for us" even though 2019 is the only year it got to 5.00.

 

That having been said, IMO ERA is another of those stats that has to be considered with other factors. In Rick's case he's averaged almost exactly 6 innings per start over his career. If you take that 5 ERA and calculate what it means over 6 innings you learn that he's given up 3.33 runs per six innings. That doesn't make him an Ace or even a #2 on anybody's team but he's a very respectable #4 or guy on the Red Sox.

 

That doesn't mean I'd pay him another $21M to pitch in 2020 but I certainly wouldn't low-ball him at $5-7M either. He's been an upfront guy who's worked hard to come back from the start he had, and he's always shouldered the blame for his bad performances. He appears to me to be the kind of guy who'd entertain an offer in the $10-12M range to try to reestablish himself.

 

I could do that.

 

if we arent resetting 2020 then i 100% am on board with this. but i think we let rik walk because that 10-15MM would put us over and i believe JH wants to reset.

[vegasbob]

No question that with Porcello it'll all come down to his price. The thing is, if he's gone, we're going to have to replace him and his 180 innings, likely with another free agent.

 

That's the dilemma , cost vs effectiveness. You pretty well know what you get with Rick, and he's not getting younger, little upside over his current abilities. Going to an FA is always a crapshoot , but at $10MM and below/year for no more than 3 years for a reliable #4 could make sense. Just don't expect lightning in a bottle.

 

I have always liked Mitch Moreland but that's when I could see him, not in June-July and Augusts. Just cannot pay him $6 million for 300 and fewer AB's per year. Tough choices especially since we don't know if Chavis is a full season day in -day out guy. Sam Travis is not going to make a real difference. He has reached his Peter Principle level IMO.

[moonslav59]

No question that with Porcello it'll all come down to his price. The thing is, if he's gone, we're going to have to replace him and his 180 innings, likely with another free agent.

 

It may not be hard to find a replacement that can give us a 5.25 ERA, but the 6 IP per start part is not easy. We can't afford having Porcello's replacement averaging 4.1 IP.

 

That being said, I am not for bringing Rick back, unless he settles for $10-12M/2, and that ain't happening.

 

So, thanks for the memories, Rick. I have no hard feelings, but it's time to move on.

[moonslav59]

That's the dilemma , cost vs effectiveness. You pretty well know what you get with Rick, and he's not getting younger, little upside over his current abilities. Going to an FA is always a crapshoot , but at $10MM and below/year for no more than 3 years for a reliable #4 could make sense. Just don't expect lightning in a bottle.

 

I have always liked Mitch Moreland but that's when I could see him, not in June-July and Augusts. Just cannot pay him $6 million for 300 and fewer AB's per year. Tough choices especially since we don't know if Chavis is a full season day in -day out guy. Sam Travis is not going to make a real difference. He has reached his Peter Principle level IMO.

 

I have about as much faith (or more) in a Dalbec-Ockimey 1B platoon as I do in Chavis-Travis.

 

I think the best place for Chavis to make a mark is 2B, where a .725 OPS is good.

[TylerD]

I'm sorry but unless he signs back for 5 million he's not worth it. Plenty of pitchers out there who can give us an 5 era. No shortage of those. No need to break the bank for one. His cy young year was a fluke. People need to realize that. Take that year out and he was essentially a 5 era pitcher for us during his time in Boston.

 

I just don’t get why he stopped throwing the two seam fast ball. Seems since he has gone back to that he has been solid his last three starts. He said he would take a discount but I doubt it will be that much. He probably walks. A team like Baltimore or Toronto will give him a pretty decent size contract.

[a700hitter]

Porcello is done. Three of his Five seasons with the Red Sox were horrendous. I don't think he will get any better with all these innings under his belt.

[moonslav59]

Porcello is done. Three of his Five seasons with the Red Sox were horrendous. I don't think he will get any better with all these innings under his belt.

 

I wouldn't call 4.65 "horrendous."

 

I'd say 2 horrendous, 1 pretty bad, 1 very good and 1 great.

[TylerD]

For the sake of clarification, Porcillo has a lifetime ERA of 4.36 which ballooned up to 5.52 in 2019 but "for the sake of argument" I'll accept that he's "essentally a 5 ERA pitcher for us" even though 2019 is the only year it got to 5.00.

 

That having been said, IMO ERA is another of those stats that has to be considered with other factors. In Rick's case he's averaged almost exactly 6 innings per start over his career. If you take that 5 ERA and calculate what it means over 6 innings you learn that he's given up 3.33 runs per six innings. That doesn't make him an Ace or even a #2 on anybody's team but he's a very respectable #4 or guy on the Red Sox.

 

That doesn't mean I'd pay him another $21M to pitch in 2020 but I certainly wouldn't low-ball him at $5-7M either. He's been an upfront guy who's worked hard to come back from the start he had, and he's always shouldered the blame for his bad performances. He appears to me to be the kind of guy who'd entertain an offer in the $10-12M range to try to reestablish himself.

 

I could do that.

 

Well said I agree with that

 

Trouble is, a bottom feeding team that is desperate for pitching is going to way over pay for Porcello (yes even with the competition out there) his CY Young season will guarantee that. Porcello said he will take a discount to stay in Boston but he won’t turn a big 5 year contract down from a team like Baltimore or Toronto or even Texas. I would love to keep him as a 4th guy in the rotation and he finished the season strong these last 3 games, but it’s looking like it won’t happen. It would have happened already if they wanted him back. But time will tell.

[TylerD]

Porcello is done. Three of his Five seasons with the Red Sox were horrendous. I don't think he will get any better with all these innings under his belt.

 

 

A lot of guys we would take the 4th spot on this rotation aren’t a ton better and will be expensive though.

[moonslav59]

This will likely be our SP'er depth chart next year- assuming health.

 

1. Sale.

2. ERod

3. Price

4. Eovaldi

5. DHern

6. Cheap FA signing

7. Chacin

8. Wright (if tendered-arb)

9. Johnson

10. Velazquez or Shawaryn/Houck

 

Edited September 26, 2019 by moonslav59

[a700hitter]

A lot of guys we would take the 4th spot on this rotation aren’t a ton better and will be expensive though.

And hopefully, they are cheaper than $20 million/year and can pitch to an ERA under 5.

[a700hitter]

This will likely be our SP'er depth chart next year- assuming health.

 

1. Sale.

2. ERod

3. Price

4. ERod

5. DHern

6. Cheap FA signing

7. Chacin

8. Wright (if tendered-arb)

9. Johnson

10. Velazquez or Shawaryn/Houck

 

You are not giving me much to look forward to.

[Bellhorn04]

This will likely be our SP'er depth chart next year- assuming health.

 

1. Sale.

2. ERod

3. Price

4. ERod

5. DHern

6. Cheap FA signing

7. Chacin

8. Wright (if tendered-arb)

9. Johnson

10. Velazquez or Shawaryn/Houck

 

 

You Magoo'd Eovaldi.