What are the chances of Porcello being offered a contract extension?

[illinoisredsox]

I'm way far away from your suggested offer, and what some GM will likely off him.

 

I might offer $18M/2 with an $8M option 3rd year and a $2M buyout, so essentially $20M/2 tops.

 

Why bother? That’s more than a 50% cut, which is not an offer, it’s an insult. Take the high road, thank him for 4 years and move on.

[notin]

Why bother? That’s more than a 50% cut, which is not an offer, it’s an insult. Take the high road, thank him for 4 years and move on.

 

Which makes it essentially the same deal Anibal Sanchez got last year. Sanchez is nearly 5 years older and lacks Porcello’s durability, and while Sanchez certainly has his seasons of effectiveness, it’s not like he’s reliable in that regard.

 

Despite a recent slump, Porcello could and should do better. If the Sox have AAV concerts (they do), they used to circumvent these with player options at reduced values, ensuring their refusal. Not sure if the current CBA still allows this...

[jacksonianmarch]

Which makes it essentially the same deal Anibal Sanchez got last year. Sanchez is nearly 5 years older and lacks Porcello’s durability, and while Sanchez certainly has his seasons of effectiveness, it’s not like he’s reliable in that regard.

 

Despite a recent slump, Porcello could and should do better. If the Sox have AAV concerts (they do), they used to circumvent these with player options at reduced values, ensuring their refusal. Not sure if the current CBA still allows this...

 

Options don't count into AAV anymore. It's guaranteed money only. Options count only when vested

[Kimmi]

I still would be ok with a 2 year extension for rik.

He is there every 5th day...

 

^^This.

[moonslav59]

Why bother? That’s more than a 50% cut, which is not an offer, it’s an insult. Take the high road, thank him for 4 years and move on.

 

It's an insult only if some other GM offers him $15M or more a year, which they might.

 

Probably the best way to handle Porcello, without insulting him, is to offer him a QO, but I'm not sure I'd want him back at close to $19M/1, since I'm thinking my to offer is $20M/2.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Rick is in a tough spot. There aren’t many reliably healthy innings eaters out there. And Rick’s history seems to follow bad seasons with good, so he’s probably a good bet for a rebound assuming his stuff hasn’t dropped off. Rick has struggled mightily with his release point on his breaking ball this year, essentially removing his ability to change the eye level and leading him to get hammered. If he can figure that out and go on a roll out of the break, there’s no way he signs for two years. If he comes out of the break the same Rick who went in, then he’ll get a one year “prove it” contract on the open market

[moonslav59]

Rick is in a tough spot. There aren’t many reliably healthy innings eaters out there. And Rick’s history seems to follow bad seasons with good, so he’s probably a good bet for a rebound assuming his stuff hasn’t dropped off. Rick has struggled mightily with his release point on his breaking ball this year, essentially removing his ability to change the eye level and leading him to get hammered. If he can figure that out and go on a roll out of the break, there’s no way he signs for two years. If he comes out of the break the same Rick who went in, then he’ll get a one year “prove it” contract on the open market

 

Rick has been a bit up and down over the last 5-6 years, but if you take out his Cy Young season, his fWAR has been between 1.7 and 3.0 every season. He's actually one of the most consistent performers in all of baseball, by seasons. He's on pace for about a 2.3 WAR, this year.

 

This is largely driven by maxing out IP's almost every year. fWAR loves IP'd.

 

His issue this year is a Dr. Jekyl & Mr. Hide syndrome. He's been about as inconsistent as he's probably ever been.

 

11.12 ERA his first 3 games

2.45 his next 4 games

4.62 the next 6 games

1.32 the next 2 games

12.75 his last 3 games

 

Or, breaking it down another way:

11.12 his first 3 games, 12.75 his last 3 games and 3.30 the 12 games in between.

 

When you look at from the second perspective, it looks like he's been fine for 12 games and has just had two really bad 3 game stretches. It give you hope he can have 12 game stretches of better than decent pitching, but it just doesn't feel that way right now, while he's in the midst of a horrible 3 game stretch.

 

[TylerD]

Rick is in a tough spot. There aren’t many reliably healthy innings eaters out there. And Rick’s history seems to follow bad seasons with good, so he’s probably a good bet for a rebound assuming his stuff hasn’t dropped off. Rick has struggled mightily with his release point on his breaking ball this year, essentially removing his ability to change the eye level and leading him to get hammered. If he can figure that out and go on a roll out of the break, there’s no way he signs for two years. If he comes out of the break the same Rick who went in, then he’ll get a one year “prove it” contract on the open market

 

He will rebound he always does. That’s how his season has gone. 2 or 3 bad games followed by 2 or 3 really good games. Rick always adjusts his mechanics. Problem is when he does that he resorts back to his old play and sucks for a couple games for some reason. This stretch won’t continue I guarantee it. A bad out against Yanks Toronto and Detroit. This break came at the right time. Rick is a work horse and he says it all the time. Nobody is more pissed off than Rick when he pitches like this. Remains to be seen what his home town discount t is.

[jacksonianmarch]

Mike Mussina said it best. Good pitchers have all their stuff working 25% of the time. Those are the domination games. 25% of the time you’ve got nothing. Their best hope is to survive. 50% of the time they have some of their stuff working. That 50% is going to determine how good you are. Porcello is giving his team nothing in his 25% where nothing is working. He’s giving his team nothing for a portion of the games where he has something working.

[OH FOY]

Rick would do good in a Ballpark like Oakland, or SF. Dodger stadium too. Seems like everyone we don't sign Theo jumps on it.

[S5Dewey]

He will rebound he always does. That’s how his season has gone. 2 or 3 bad games followed by 2 or 3 really good games. Rick always adjusts his mechanics. Problem is when he does that he resorts back to his old play and sucks for a couple games for some reason. This stretch won’t continue I guarantee it. A bad out against Yanks Toronto and Detroit. This break came at the right time. Rick is a work horse and he says it all the time. Nobody is more pissed off than Rick when he pitches like this. Remains to be seen what his home town discount t is.

 

I'm nowhere near ready to offer Porcillo an insulting offer. I can still remember what happened when we did that to Lester. Ugh.

 

IMO he's consistent with several other players on this team and this team as a whole. There's simply too much talent for this team to be playing as poorly as they are. I believe they will come around, and I hope it's in time to capture a WC spot. Even if that doesn't happen I wouldn't be staging any fire sales late in the year or in the off season. As I said, too much proven talent.

[moonslav59]

I'm nowhere near ready to offer Porcillo an insulting offer. I can still remember what happened when we did that to Lester. Ugh.

 

IMO he's consistent with several other players on this team and this team as a whole. There's simply too much talent for this team to be playing as poorly as they are. I believe they will come around, and I hope it's in time to capture a WC spot. Even if that doesn't happen I wouldn't be staging any fire sales late in the year or in the off season. As I said, too much proven talent.

 

Look what happened to Keuchel.

 

I'm just not sure what number would be "insulting" anymore.

[moonslav59]

Prices have come down on non elite SP'ers:

$15M x 2 Charlie Morton

$13M x 1 Dallas Keuchel

$10M x 3 Lance Lynn

$9.5M x 2 A. Sanchez

$7.8M x 2 G Richardson

 

$11M x 1 M Harvey

$9M x 1 T Cahill

 

Okay, maybe $20M/2 is a bit insulting, but when I look at the list above, they all look like overpays, except for maybe Morton, and he turns 36 this November!

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Keuchel was apparently offered a 4/$60mil and turned it down. He was going for a 5 year deal and teams rightfully shied away

[Bellhorn04]

Keuchel was apparently offered a 4/$60mil and turned it down. He was going for a 5 year deal and teams rightfully shied away

 

Yes, he and Kimbrel overpriced themselves, so that's kind of a different story.

[TylerD]

I’m just not sure what our rotation would look like next year.

 

Sale

Price

E Rod

Wright

Evo?

 

Then the BP is another mess of a story. Brewer, Taylor, Barnes? Add 3 more relievers.

[Jasonbay44]

I don’t think Wright is an option. I honestly wish he was off the team

[moonslav59]

Keuchel was apparently offered a 4/$60mil and turned it down. He was going for a 5 year deal and teams rightfully shied away

 

Well, if that is the going rate for Keuchel, then Porcello will probably get something close to that number/years offer.

 

I'd never offer close to that, so I guess I'm saying I'd prefer to say, "Thank you very much. You did very well in a Sox uniform. Good luck with your future plans elsewhere."

[moonslav59]

I’m just not sure what our rotation would look like next year.

 

Sale

Price

E Rod

Wright

Evo?

 

Then the BP is another mess of a story. Brewer, Taylor, Barnes? Add 3 more relievers.

 

No love for Workman? (I like Hembree more than Brewer.)

[moonslav59]

I don’t think Wright is an option. I honestly wish he was off the team

 

It's hard to like Wright, but the guy has had some very nice and long stretches of pitching very well, unlike many of the pitchers on our roster.

[S5Dewey]

It's hard to like Wright, but the guy has had some very nice and long stretches of pitching very well, unlike many of the pitchers on our roster.

 

I wish I had knowledge of what happened between Wright and his wife. Some domestic disturbances are more severe than others. For example, a guy having a fight with his wife and then taking a gun to a garage and firing off a few rounds (IMO) is more severe than having a fight with a wife and taking her phone away in an effort to give her a chance to calm down. "Domestic assault" covers so much ground now that it shouldn't all be under one heading.

 

And I know, none of it is good, but at the same time there are degrees of it and I could have a lot more sympathy for someone who was trying to defuse a situation than I can for someone who grabs a weapon to take out his frustration. (Not that I'm pointing fingers at anyone. :-) )

 

Without the knowledge of what happened I have to defer to the penalty imposed by the court and make my own judgments, I guess.

[Bellhorn04]

I wish I had knowledge of what happened between Wright and his wife. Some domestic disturbances are more severe than others. For example, a guy having a fight with his wife and then taking a gun to a garage and firing off a few rounds (IMO) is more severe than having a fight with a wife and taking her phone away in an effort to give her a chance to calm down. "Domestic assault" covers so much ground now that it shouldn't all be under one heading.

 

And I know, none of it is good, but at the same time there are degrees of it and I could have a lot more sympathy for someone who was trying to defuse a situation than I can for someone who grabs a weapon to take out his frustration. (Not that I'm pointing fingers at anyone. :-) )

 

Without the knowledge of what happened I have to defer to the penalty imposed by the court and make my own judgments, I guess.

 

I agree.

[TylerD]

No love for Workman? (I like Hembree more than Brewer.)

 

I like Workman too. Forgot about him.

[Kimmi]

I don’t think Wright is an option. I honestly wish he was off the team

 

I am with you all the way on this one.

[TylerD]

I am with you all the way on this one.

 

I’ll third that.

[Swiharts Ghost]

Looks like Zack Wheeler may be our guy .Hes a damn talented pitcher .

[notin]

Looks like Zack Wheeler may be our guy .Hes a damn talented pitcher .

 

Braves, Brewers and Yankees are also interested.

 

If it comes down to a bidding war, the Sox ain’t winning it.

[Slasher9]

Braves, Brewers and Yankees are also interested.

 

If it comes down to a bidding war, the Sox ain’t winning it.

 

Never underestimate what DD is willing to give away...

[TylerD]

It's hard to like Wright, but the guy has had some very nice and long stretches of pitching very well, unlike many of the pitchers on our roster.

 

I think he’s a good pitcher but I just don’t like him. It’s such mixed emotions. When he helps us win I’m happy but still don’t like him lol.

[moonslav59]

Braves, Brewers and Yankees are also interested.

 

If it comes down to a bidding war, the Sox ain’t winning it.

 

Nobody is going to make the Mets an offer the Sox can't top.

 

He's not good enough to bring back more than what we have.

 

The question will be, "Is he worth further emptying the farm by X amount or not?"