What are the chances of Porcello being offered a contract extension?

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not sure $60M/4 is all that much lower than what he may get on the open market, but he will probably view it as a "hometown discount."

 

I would not be surprised, if DD has decided he's not worth that much and will offer him something like $50M/4, and if he says no, go with the QO.

 

I think the opening offer has to be what is now known as the 'Lester Insult Offer' of 4/$70 million.

[Bellhorn04]

Last 10 starts:

 

64.2 IP

3.20 ERA

54 K

10 BB

.607 OPSa

 

If Rick keeps pitching like this, he gonna get paid.

 

You can't discount the Recency Effect. Just ask Nate Eovaldi.

[jacksonianmarch]

Porcello is going to be who he is. He's had an FIP between 4.01 and 4.60 in 4 of the five seasons he has been in Boston. His only year out of that range was his CY year. He is who he is. He will give you quality innings and mostly be average to slightly above. His insane HR rates blunt otherwise solid peripherals. You can extend him if you want, but this past FA period showed that guys with good but not great track records and durability don't enjoy huge contracts on the open market. He's the Lance Lynn or Dallas Keuchel of the open market. He is likely looking at a 3-4 yr deal in the $15 mil per season range. Last year, I thought he'd easily see $18-$20 mil per annum with a 5 year outlay, but with the markets the way they are, I doubt that ever happens

[TylerD]

Porcello is going to be who he is. He's had an FIP between 4.01 and 4.60 in 4 of the five seasons he has been in Boston. His only year out of that range was his CY year. He is who he is. He will give you quality innings and mostly be average to slightly above. His insane HR rates blunt otherwise solid peripherals. You can extend him if you want, but this past FA period showed that guys with good but not great track records and durability don't enjoy huge contracts on the open market. He's the Lance Lynn or Dallas Keuchel of the open market. He is likely looking at a 3-4 yr deal in the $15 mil per season range. Last year, I thought he'd easily see $18-$20 mil per annum with a 5 year outlay, but with the markets the way they are, I doubt that ever happens

If he wants to stay in Boston as bad as he says he does maybe he will take that offer.

[OH FOY]

I'm Porcello I'm not taking less then Eovaldi. Tons of innings, he also was out of BP last year in the Playoffs. Teams will give him 17+ just because of innings. He eats them up. Put him in a Pitchers Park, without DH, he's a good deal at 18 for 3 with an Option. Never arm problems, roll him out every 5th day, those guys are real valuable. Take it easy on the stats. He'll just turn 31 over Off-season. Scherzer will be 35 in July. And he got 84 Million still owed to him for 2 years.

If you want him at 15 you better give him years, on his contract. 4 minimum, if I was his Agent. I would hold off for 5, and say there is your hometown discount.

Edited June 18, 2019 by OH FOY!

[TylerD]

I'm Porcello I'm not taking less then Eovaldi. Tons of innings, he also was out of BP last year in the Playoffs. Teams will give him 17+ just because of innings. He eats them up. Put him in a Pitchers Park, without DH, he's a good deal at 18 for 3 with an Option. Never arm problems, roll him out every 5th day, those guys are real valuable. Take it easy on the stats. He'll just turn 31 over Off-season. Scherzer will be 35 in July. And he got 84 Million still owed to him for 2 years.

If you want him at 15 you better give him years, on his contract. 4 minimum, if I was his Agent. I would hold off for 5, and say there is your hometown discount.

 

 

Well said!

[Kimmi]

He doesn’t pitch like a number 3. This is the friggin point I’m trying to make. I’m not saying he’s the best 2nd man in the league but he’s not a typical number 3 pitcher. I have been going into stats and games all thread about it so I won’t go into again. Paper readers who just look at ERA don’t understand it. Not saying you are. But it is what it is

 

Oh look.... Rick was flawless tonight against the second best offense in the league.

 

As I've said many times, Porcello is one of the most underrated starting pitchers because he doesn't have the shiny ERA. The fact that he takes the ball every 5th day and keeps his team in most games while usually going 6+ innings is no small feat.

 

Some nice facts from Gammons:

 

Peter Gammons‏Verified account @pgammo 2h2 hours ago

 

3 reminders from Rick Porcello's 2-0 win vs. Twins:since signing his 2016-19 contract, he is 2d in MLB in starts, 3d in IP, 4th in wins. He is an important team leader, but club would not talk extension after 4/$68M deal to Nathan Eovaldi, which seems to certain Porcello's FA

[Kimmi]

My only point was not very many starting pitchers make $22M.

 

As much as I love Porcello, I would not give him a huge contract in terms of years. I would love to have him back on a 3 year deal. I would be willing to offer him a slightly higher AAV to keep the the number of years down.

[Kimmi]

Maybe he won’t mind. He wants to stay in Boston. Maybe he will be generous

 

Bradford had a really nice article on Porcello this morning, including talking about how badly Porcello wants to stay in Boston, his willingness to take a discount, and his value as a clubhouse leader. These things make me respect Porcello even more.

 

https://weei.radio.com/blogs/rob-bradford/boston-red-sox-pitcher-rick-porcello-showing-why-he-deserves-some-contract

[oldtimer]

As much as I love Porcello, I would not give him a huge contract in terms of years. I would love to have him back on a 3 year deal. I would be willing to offer him a slightly higher AAV to keep the the number of years down.

 

I agree. He keeps himself in shape to eat the innings. He is an important cog for the team but offering more than 3 years is not in keeping with the strategy of no long term contracts for older players. The offer can be slightly higher than the current contract as far as i'm concerned. If he takes that, we will have done well.

 

Thinking about him, who would you rather have of the Yankee starters? I think it may be a ist of one.

[TylerD]

Bradford had a really nice article on Porcello this morning, including talking about how badly Porcello wants to stay in Boston, his willingness to take a discount, and his value as a clubhouse leader. These things make me respect Porcello even more.

 

https://weei.radio.com/blogs/rob-bradford/boston-red-sox-pitcher-rick-porcello-showing-why-he-deserves-some-contract

 

Thanks Kimmi! And I agree, everything about Porcello makes me like the guy! Losing him would not be a good decision by this franchise..... I still don't think he is that old. Signing him to 4 years I don't think would be a bad idea but 3 years would be ideal. I wish we knew what discount he offered. Also might change his mind if another team offers big dollars. He wants to stay in Boston we know that, but often times a big contract can change a players mind pretty quick.

[Kimmi]

I agree. He keeps himself in shape to eat the innings. He is an important cog for the team but offering more than 3 years is not in keeping with the strategy of no long term contracts for older players. The offer can be slightly higher than the current contract as far as i'm concerned. If he takes that, we will have done well.

 

Thinking about him, who would you rather have of the Yankee starters? I think it may be a ist of one.

 

Completely agree Oldtimer.

 

Since before the season started, I have felt that the Yankees rotation was their weakness. As I posted before, I would rather have a strong rotation and a mediocre bullpen than the other way around. German came through big for the Yankees at the start of the season, but not only is he going to be limited in innings, he has not fared as well in his last few outings.

 

If we can get Eovaldi back healthy, that would not only boost our rotation, but it would help our pen out as well.

[Kimmi]

Thanks Kimmi! And I agree, everything about Porcello makes me like the guy! Losing him would not be a good decision by this franchise..... I still don't think he is that old. Signing him to 4 years I don't think would be a bad idea but 3 years would be ideal. I wish we knew what discount he offered. Also might change his mind if another team offers big dollars. He wants to stay in Boston we know that, but often times a big contract can change a players mind pretty quick.

 

Porcello said that he would be open to negotiating a new contract during the season. My hope is that he continues to pitch great, and the Sox have a change of heart about giving him that extension before he reaches free agency.

[S5Dewey]

Porcello said that he would be open to negotiating a new contract during the season. My hope is that he continues to pitch great, and the Sox have a change of heart about giving him that extension before he reaches free agency.

 

Sometimes I don't understand what the Sox FO does. Here's a guy who performs on the field, he's a clubhouse leader, he's practically begging them to make him any kind of a reasonable offer he can sign, and they're sitting on their thumbs. Ugh.

[Slasher9]

Sometimes I don't understand what the Sox FO does. Here's a guy who performs on the field, he's a clubhouse leader, he's practically begging them to make him any kind of a reasonable offer he can sign, and they're sitting on their thumbs. Ugh.

 

its mind boggling.

[Bellhorn04]

Sometimes I don't understand what the Sox FO does. Here's a guy who performs on the field, he's a clubhouse leader, he's practically begging them to make him any kind of a reasonable offer he can sign, and they're sitting on their thumbs. Ugh.

 

They can't sign everybody. We do have the highest payroll in the game, and Sale and Bogey got those extensions et cetera.

 

I like Rick too, but I can't see knocking the FO about payroll.

[Slasher9]

They can't sign everybody. We do have the highest payroll in the game, and Sale and Bogey got those extensions et cetera.

 

I like Rick too, but I can't see knocking the FO about payroll.

 

but his $$ is coming off the books. so it can be replaced by him for less $$???

[oldtimer]

but his $$ is coming off the books. so it can be replaced by him for less $$???

 

Or the same or slightly more. Of course any idea of offering should be tempered by how he does for the remainder of the season.

[moonslav59]

I think the opening offer has to be what is now known as the 'Lester Insult Offer' of 4/$70 million.

 

It's hard to know what market rate is these days.

 

I've said before that Keuchel is not a good comp, but Porcello with a QO attached to any signing on the open market may not be valued as much as some of us think he is worth.

 

There are some similarities with Keuchel. Keuchel had an "outlier year" in 2015, and Porcello had one in 2016.

 

2014-2018:

Keuchel 67-45 3.28

121 ERA+

1.18 WHIP

4.35 FIP

3.11 K/BB

145 GS/950 IP

 

Porcello

74-56 4.04

107 ERA+

1.28 WHIP

3.95 FIP

4.04 K/BB

159 GS/994 IP

 

Keuchel is almost exactly a year older than Porcello, but Porcello will be his same age when they reached free agency.

 

I think Porcello is better, but how much better?

 

Other recent signings:

2019

$140M/6 Patrick Corbin (2 years younger)

$68M/4 Nathan Eovaldi (I feel Porcello is better than NE)

$34M/2 JA Happ (6 years older)

2018

$126M/6 Darvish (Close to same age when a FA)

$75M/3 Arrieta (About a year older when a FA)

$57M/4 Cobb (About a year under when a FA)

$38M/3 Chatwood (About 2 years younger)

$28M/3 MMinor (About a year younger)

 

Hard call.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 18, 2019 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

Sometimes I don't understand what the Sox FO does. Here's a guy who performs on the field, he's a clubhouse leader, he's practically begging them to make him any kind of a reasonable offer he can sign, and they're sitting on their thumbs. Ugh.

 

It's hard to know what's going on. It might be that Henry is really adamant about not going over the next luxury tax line or that Porcello's idea of a home town discount really isn't much of a discount. Or it could be any other number of things.

 

Maybe they think they can find a better option for cheaper. We'll see.

[moonslav59]

The QO has really hurt FA values recently.

 

If I were Porcello, I'd be worried about becoming the next Keuchel.

[Bellhorn04]

The QO has really hurt FA values recently.

 

If I were Porcello, I'd be worried about becoming the next Keuchel.

 

The FA market has become extremely quirky and unpredictable.

 

Who would have thought Keuchel and Kimbrel would be the ones hung out to dry?

 

And on the other hand, I was surprised at how much Machado got.

[SCM33]

It may be too late for an extension at this point. The price keeps going up.

[mvp 78]

As does his age.

[Kimmi]

The QO has really hurt FA values recently.

 

If I were Porcello, I'd be worried about becoming the next Keuchel.

 

Porcello just might be willing to take the QO.

[notin]

The FA market has become extremely quirky and unpredictable.

 

Who would have thought Keuchel and Kimbrel would be the ones hung out to dry?

 

And on the other hand, I was surprised at how much Machado got.

 

 

There seems to be a very sharp drop pfff once a player turns 30.

 

This year’s most interesting free agent might be Nick Castellanos. He’s 28, but not exactly elite...

[moonslav59]

Porcello just might be willing to take the QO.

 

I'd be fine with that, even though the luxury tax hit would be significant.

Edited June 19, 2019 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

I'd be fine with that, even though the luxury tax hit would be significant.

 

It depends on what else the team does, but the QO would just be replacing Porcello's current salary.

[Bellhorn04]

It depends on what else the team does, but the QO would just be replacing Porcello's current salary.

 

That's right.

 

The issue is that even by doing nothing, the payroll cost for several players will rise significantly - Sale, Bogey and likely Mookie for starters.

[Slasher9]

That's right.

 

The issue is that even by doing nothing, the payroll cost for several players will rise significantly - Sale, Bogey and likely Mookie for starters.

 

bogey definitely.

Mookie - not so sure.

Sale - i thought his number now is locked in for the next 4?