Devers

Kimmi · March 15, 2019

[ATTACH=CONFIG]698[/ATTACH]

'Nuff said, Brother Slash.

FredLynn · March 15, 2019

I see devers booted another ball today......

Devers' problems have generally not been fielding the ball. The issue has been getting it to first base. I am not worried about him booting a ball today. I would be more worried if he consistently keeps airmailing the ball to first base.

Edited March 15, 2019 by FredLynn

moonslav59 · March 16, 2019

An OBP of .298 is not good at any age...........

He K's a lot and dipped in OBP last year.

He's shown very good power and seems to rise to the occasion, when a hit is needed.

His overall numbers are very good for someone playing 2-3 years younger than most rookies.

harmony · March 16, 2019

Moments ago I was surprised that a fellow fantasy baseball owner dropped the long-term contract of Rafael Devers, incurring a $5 penalty, instead of retaining Devers at $10 in a 10-team, 27-roster mixed roto league with a $305 budget.

However, I hope Devers contributes for the Red Sox.

Slasher9 · March 16, 2019

Moments ago I was surprised that a fellow fantasy baseball owner dropped the long-term contract of Rafael Devers, incurring a $5 penalty, instead of retaining Devers at $10 in a 10-team, 27-roster mixed roto league with a $305 budget.

However, I hope Devers contributes for the Red Sox.

This is PRO level trolling right here. Babe should take note in order to up his troll game.....

Well done Mr. Harmony

harmony · March 16, 2019

This is PRO level trolling right here. Babe should take note in order to up his troll game.....
Well done Mr. Harmony

Some compliments go unappreciated.

Kimmi · March 16, 2019

Devers' problems have generally not been fielding the ball. The issue has been getting it to first base. I am not worried about him booting a ball today. I would be more worried if he consistently keeps airmailing the ball to first base.

Devers will often make very difficult Gold Glove caliber plays that make you go "Wow!", then he'll turn around an boot a fairly routine play. I think he gets in his own head. He seems to do a lot better when he doesn't have time to think and just has to react instead.

At any rate, I expect a fair amount of improvement from Devers this year, both offensively and defensively.

Kimmi · March 16, 2019

Moments ago I was surprised that a fellow fantasy baseball owner dropped the long-term contract of Rafael Devers, incurring a $5 penalty, instead of retaining Devers at $10 in a 10-team, 27-roster mixed roto league with a $305 budget.

However, I hope Devers contributes for the Red Sox.

Bad move. One that said fellow fantasy owner will come to regret.

FredLynn · March 16, 2019

Devers will often make very difficult Gold Glove caliber plays that make you go "Wow!", then he'll turn around an boot a fairly routine play. I think he gets in his own head. He seems to do a lot better when he doesn't have time to think and just has to react instead.

At any rate, I expect a fair amount of improvement from Devers this year, both offensively and defensively.

He does make some unbelievable plays fielding the ball....but then often airmails it to 1B. He is likely to improve both in the field and at the plate, but until he does I am firmly in the camp of "show me".

moonslav59 · March 16, 2019

He does make some unbelievable plays fielding the ball....but then often airmails it to 1B. He is likely to improve both in the field and at the plate, but until he does I am firmly in the camp of "show me".

He's already been a net plus on offense, despite the low OBP.

At worst, IMO, he becomes a very good DH or 1Bman.

Maybe I'm wrong to expect someone to improve from ages 22-26, but it is what I am doing with Devers.

I see his floor (not 2019 but career) as maybe .260 30 90.

I see his ceiling (not 2019) as maybe .285 45 130.

harmony · March 16, 2019

He's already been a net plus on offense, despite the low OBP.

At worst, IMO, he becomes a very good DH or 1Bman.

Maybe I'm wrong to expect someone to improve from ages 22-26, but it is what I am doing with Devers.

I see his floor (not 2019 but career) as maybe .260 30 90.

I see his ceiling (not 2019) as maybe .285 45 130.

Is Seattle third baseman Kyle Seager a decent comp for overall career WAR?

Seager, who is nine years older than Rafael Devers, has posted 27.9 bWAR and 27.8 fWAR in eight MLB seasons starting with his 53-game debut in as a 23-year-old in 2011.

Devers has posted 1.3 bWAR and 1.7 fWAR in two MLB seasons starting with his 58-game debut as a 20-year-old in 2017.

Seager has posted more annual value on defense than Devers has to date.

Can Devers average nearly 3 WAR per season over the next nine years to catch up with Seager at a similar age? Who takes the over and who takes the under?

Let me take cover before you fire off responses.

moonslav59 · March 16, 2019

Is Seattle third baseman Kyle Seager a decent comp for overall career WAR?

Seager, who is nine years older than Rafael Devers, has posted 27.9 bWAR and 27.8 fWAR in eight MLB seasons starting with his 53-game debut in as a 23-year-old in 2011.

Devers has posted 1.3 bWAR and 1.7 fWAR in two MLB seasons starting with his 58-game debut as a 20-year-old in 2017.

Seager has posted more annual value on defense than Devers has to date.

Can Devers average nearly 3 WAR per season over the next nine years to catch up with Seager at a similar age? Who takes the over and who takes the under?

Let me take cover before you fire off responses.

I think it is a reasonable comp. Devers might do better, but he might do worse. He may never catch him of defense but may pass him on offense.

harmony · March 16, 2019

I think it is a reasonable comp. Devers might do better, but he might do worse. He may never catch him of defense but may pass him on offense.

How about a comp with third baseman Pablo Sandoval, who in 2008 made his 41-game MLB debut in his age 21 season?

Through their first two MLB seasons Sandoval and Rafael Devers posted these numbers:

PS 194 G, 633 PA, .333/.381/.543/.924, OPS+ 139, 5.4 bWAR, 6.1 fWAR

RD 179 G, 730 PA, .254/.311/.449/.760, OPS+ 100, 1.3 bWAR, 1.7 fWAR

Those first two seasons Sandoval played 132 games at third base, 43 at first base and 14 at catcher.

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5409&position=3B#fielding

A wide range of outcomes is possible for a 22-year-old who is difficult to project. Rafael Devers could become a perennial All Star or fall short of that status.

Edited March 16, 2019 by harmony

moonslav59 · March 16, 2019

How about a comp with third baseman Pablo Sandoval, who in 2008 made his 41-game MLB debut in his age 21 season?

Through their first two MLB seasons Sandoval and Rafael Devers posted these numbers:

PS 194 G, 633 PA, .333/.381/.543/.924, OPS+ 139, 5.4 bWAR, 6.1 fWAR
RD 179 G, 730 PA, .254/.311/.449/.760, OPS+ 100, 1.3 bWAR, 1.7 fWAR

Those first two seasons Sandoval played 132 games at third base, 43 at first base and 14 at catcher.

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5409&position=3B#fielding

A wide range of outcomes is possible for a 22-year-old who is difficult to project. Rafael Devers could become a perennial All Star or fall short of that status.

Devers was younger, when he started out in the bigs.

I guess one could view Pablo as the floor for Devers.

harmony · March 16, 2019

Devers was younger, when he started out in the bigs.

I guess one could view Pablo as the floor for Devers.

To be precise, Rafael Devers was 486 days (about 16 months) younger than Pablo Sandoval was at their respective MLB debuts.

Given their starkly contrasting numbers in their first two MLB seasons, how can Pablo Sandoval be the floor for Rafael Devers?

Bellhorn04 · March 16, 2019

To be precise, Rafael Devers was 486 days (about 16 months) younger than Pablo Sandoval was at their respective MLB debuts.

Given their starkly contrasting numbers in their first two MLB seasons, how can Pablo Sandoval be the floor for Rafael Devers?

Because we have the benefit of hindsight on Pablo's premature and precipitous decline.

moonslav59 · March 17, 2019

To be precise, Rafael Devers was 486 days (about 16 months) younger than Pablo Sandoval was at their respective MLB debuts.

Given their starkly contrasting numbers in their first two MLB seasons, how can Pablo Sandoval be the floor for Rafael Devers?

Let's compare their numbers at the same ages and when the reach prime.

Pablo from age 23-27:

.292 BA (Maybe Devers ends up under this.)

103 HR in 3070 ABs (Maybe Devers ends up much higher here.)

.345 OBP

.464 SLG

.809 OPS

Maybe .809 is his floor over the next 6 years.

Counting all his seasons after age 22, Pablo hit .775. Maybe that's "the floor" going forward.

harmony · March 17, 2019

Let's compare their numbers at the same ages and when the reach prime.

Pablo from age 23-27:

.292 BA (Maybe Devers ends up under this.)

103 HR in 3070 ABs (Maybe Devers ends up much higher here.)

.345 OBP
.464 SLG
.809 OPS

Maybe .809 is his floor over the next 6 years.

Counting all his seasons after age 22, Pablo hit .775. Maybe that's "the floor" going forward.

Perhaps those are the optimistic mid-range projections.

Rafael Devers' trajectory may contrast with that of Pablo Sandoval, who nonetheless made two All Star appearances and helped the San Francisco Giants to three World Series titles.

Sandoval was a young phenomenon who never cratered until joining the Red Sox. Compare the early careers of Sandoval and Mookie Betts. Sandoval, who debuted with 41 games in his age 21 season, and Betts, who debuted with 52 games in his age 21 season, posted these lines over their first two seasons:

PS 194 G, 787 PA, .333/.381/.543/.924, OPS+ 139, 5.4 bWAR

MB 197 G, 867 PA, .291/.348/.471/.818, OPS+ 119, 8.1 bWAR

Sandoval finished seventh in the National League MVP voting his second season while Betts finished 19th in the American League MVP voting his second season.

Neither Devers nor Sandoval has the defensive prowess of Mookie Betts.

Devers' floor is unlikely to be a player who outhit Betts at similar ages.

moonslav59 · March 17, 2019

Perhaps those are the optimistic mid-range projections.

Rafael Devers' trajectory may contrast with that of Pablo Sandoval, who nonetheless made two All Star appearances and helped the San Francisco Giants to three World Series titles.

Sandoval was a young phenomenon who never cratered until joining the Red Sox. Compare the early careers of Sandoval and Mookie Betts. Sandoval, who debuted with 41 games in his age 21 season, and Betts, who debuted with 52 games in his age 21 season, posted these lines over their first two seasons:

PS 194 G, 787 PA, .333/.381/.543/.924, OPS+ 139, 5.4 bWAR
MB 197 G, 867 PA, .291/.348/.471/.818, OPS+ 119, 8.1 bWAR

Sandoval finished seventh in the National League MVP voting his second season while Betts finished 19th in the American League MVP voting his second season.

Neither Devers nor Sandoval has the defensive prowess of Mookie Betts.

Devers' floor is unlikely to be a player who outhit Betts at similar ages.

Devers will end up with a career OPS higher than .777. This Betts comp is not related.

We're talking about Devers' career floor and ceiling.

I don't think saying .777 might be his floor is all that whacky.

He's at .769 by age 21.

Geesh!

Edited March 17, 2019 by moonslav59

Bellhorn04 · March 17, 2019

Perhaps those are the optimistic mid-range projections.

Rafael Devers' trajectory may contrast with that of Pablo Sandoval, who nonetheless made two All Star appearances and helped the San Francisco Giants to three World Series titles.

Sandoval was a young phenomenon who never cratered until joining the Red Sox. Compare the early careers of Sandoval and Mookie Betts. Sandoval, who debuted with 41 games in his age 21 season, and Betts, who debuted with 52 games in his age 21 season, posted these lines over their first two seasons:

PS 194 G, 787 PA, .333/.381/.543/.924, OPS+ 139, 5.4 bWAR
MB 197 G, 867 PA, .291/.348/.471/.818, OPS+ 119, 8.1 bWAR

Sandoval finished seventh in the National League MVP voting his second season while Betts finished 19th in the American League MVP voting his second season.

Neither Devers nor Sandoval has the defensive prowess of Mookie Betts.

Devers' floor is unlikely to be a player who outhit Betts at similar ages.

harmony, a personal question here, hopefully not an offensive one.

When was the last time you said something like: 'Man, I think this guy is really gonna be good!'

Can you remember back that far? Did it ever even happen?

moonslav59 · March 17, 2019

harmony, a personal question here, hopefully not an offensive one.

When was the last time you said something like: 'Man, I think this guy is really gonna be good!'

Can you remember back that far? Did it ever even happen?

There's no such thing as hope, even if it based on plenty of supporting data.

harmony · March 17, 2019

harmony, a personal question here, hopefully not an offensive one.

When was the last time you said something like: 'Man, I think this guy is really gonna be good!'

Can you remember back that far? Did it ever even happen?

I defended Sandy Leon last week:

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19135-Blake-Swihart?p=1224711#post1224711

Over the past three years I've typically held a higher opinion of Jackie Bradley Jr. than many posters to this forum. I currently view Ryan Brasier and Jenrry Mejia as underrated.

I generally find prospects overvalued with the proliferation of prospect lists over the past two decades. My opinion may be jaded by the inability of the Seattle Mariners to develop touted prospects.

Mookie Betts caught my attention in 2014 with his stellar 61/50 BB/K split in the minors (the year before Devers had a concerning 24/84 BB/K split in the low minors).

Thank you for the respectful question.

notin · March 17, 2019

Some prospects are worth getting excited about, even with mediocre ceilings. The ability to play competently at the Major League level while making minimum wage is an undervalued skill in itself...

notin · March 17, 2019

harmony, a personal question here, hopefully not an offensive one.

When was the last time you said something like: 'Man, I think this guy is really gonna be good!'

Can you remember back that far? Did it ever even happen?

Let’s b fair.

Back on BDC, he used Mark Reynolds as a good comparison for the future of Will Middlebrooks. I think I was the lone holdout that wished that would happen.

Middlebrooks is out of baseball. Reynolds, despite being 5 years older, played last season. Now in hindsight, don’t we all wish Middlebrooks turned out to be as good as Mark Reynolds?

Bellhorn04 · March 17, 2019

Let’s b fair.

Back on BDC, he used Mark Reynolds as a good comparison for the future of Will Middlebrooks. I think I was the lone holdout that wished that would happen.

Middlebrooks is out of baseball. Reynolds, despite being 5 years older, played last season. Now in hindsight, don’t we all wish Middlebrooks turned out to be as good as Mark Reynolds?

Joe Brady on BDC educated me in the importance of K/BB ratio. He said Middlebrooks's ratio pointed to failure.

moonslav59 · March 17, 2019

Joe Brady on BDC educated me in the importance of K/BB ratio. He said Middlebrooks's ratio pointed to failure.

K rate is a very good tool to use to raise a red flag, but there are quite a few high K rate players today who provide a big plus to their teams.

Stanton finished 5th highest in K% at 30% while providing a 4.2 WAR last year.

14 of the top 17 K rate players had a WAR of 2 or more (including JBJ).

17 of 21 had a WAR at 2.0+ and 21 out of 26, including Goldschmidt 5.1, 3.5 BHarper, JBaez 5.3, TStory 5.0, TPham 4.0, MOlsen 3.4, Schwarber 3.2, KDavis 2.6, J Aguilar, CTaylor & J Upton at 3.1, J Gallo 2.8 & Conforto at 3.0

High K guys can be successful.

notin · March 17, 2019

Joe Brady on BDC educated me in the importance of K/BB ratio. He said Middlebrooks's ratio pointed to failure.

Joe B and myself were all over that with Middlebrooks...

Bellhorn04 · March 17, 2019

K rate is a very good tool to use to raise a red flag, but there are quite a few high K rate players today who provide a big plus to their teams.

Stanton finished 5th highest in K% at 30% while providing a 4.2 WAR last year.

14 of the top 17 K rate players had a WAR of 2 or more (including JBJ).

17 of 21 had a WAR at 2.0+ and 21 out of 26, including Goldschmidt 5.1, 3.5 BHarper, JBaez 5.3, TStory 5.0, TPham 4.0, MOlsen 3.4, Schwarber 3.2, KDavis 2.6, J Aguilar, CTaylor & J Upton at 3.1, J Gallo 2.8 & Conforto at 3.0

High K guys can be successful.

K/BB not straight K.

notin · March 17, 2019

K rate is a very good tool to use to raise a red flag, but there are quite a few high K rate players today who provide a big plus to their teams.

Stanton finished 5th highest in K% at 30% while providing a 4.2 WAR last year.

14 of the top 17 K rate players had a WAR of 2 or more (including JBJ).

17 of 21 had a WAR at 2.0+ and 21 out of 26, including Goldschmidt 5.1, 3.5 BHarper, JBaez 5.3, TStory 5.0, TPham 4.0, MOlsen 3.4, Schwarber 3.2, KDavis 2.6, J Aguilar, CTaylor & J Upton at 3.1, J Gallo 2.8 & Conforto at 3.0

High K guys can be successful.

High K guys in the majors are a bit different than high K guys in the minors.

A big part of the reason I’m wary about Dalbec...

moonslav59 · March 17, 2019

Sox highest K rates last year:

26% JBJ

25% Devers

23% JDM

22% Moreland

20% Holt

18% Bogey

16% Beni

15% Betts

14% Nunez

Highest Sox K rates over the last 3 years combined:

25 TShaw

25 Leon

24 Devers

24 JBJ

23 JDM

21 Moreland

21 CYoung

20 HRam

19 Holt

18 Vaz

18 Bogey

17 Beni

14 Nunez

14 Papi

12 Betts

10 Pedey

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