2019 Prospects

[jacksonianmarch]

Can anyone really be proven wrong in the minors?

 

Of course they can. If a guy goes from being a toolsy guy who you don't believe in with minimal production and then figures it out. Look at Miguel Andujar's minor league numbers. Law hated Andujar's offensive game. But other scouts, especially those that follow the Yankees had said he has the tools to be a great hitter. His 2017 was spectacular in the minors and he followed it up with an even better major league debut. But before 2017, he was middling at best.

[moonslav59]

Of course they can. If a guy goes from being a toolsy guy who you don't believe in with minimal production and then figures it out. Look at Miguel Andujar's minor league numbers. Law hated Andujar's offensive game. But other scouts, especially those that follow the Yankees had said he has the tools to be a great hitter. His 2017 was spectacular in the minors and he followed it up with an even better major league debut. But before 2017, he was middling at best.

 

So, Law never moved Andujar up in his rankings after doing well in the minors?

 

How many times does a prospect improve in the minors and then still never make it in the majors? Should a rankings guy be bashed for not moving some guys up for doing very well in the minors?

 

I contend that nobody can be "proven wrong" until after the prospect makes it to the majors and does well, okay or poorly for a few years.

[jacksonianmarch]

Law doesn't "move guys up". He's a very opinionated douche who will make all or nothing statements that sensationalize prospect following and make statements like "this guy isn't going to be a big leaguer". He is also obstinate and won't move off his initial points

[moonslav59]

Law doesn't "move guys up". He's a very opinionated douche who will make all or nothing statements that sensationalize prospect following and make statements like "this guy isn't going to be a big leaguer". He is also obstinate and won't move off his initial points

 

Where did Law rank Andujar in 2016, 2017 & 2018?

[jacksonianmarch]

Where did Law rank Andujar in 2016, 2017 & 2018?

 

He did have Andujar 54th prior to 2018, so my apologies there, but he was touting his defense!

[moonslav59]

He did have Andujar 54th prior to 2018, so my apologies there, but he was touting his defense!

 

Thanks for being honest.

 

I'm not a huge Law fan either, but it's helpful to get several opinions through various rankings.

[sk7326]

He did have Andujar 54th prior to 2018, so my apologies there, but he was touting his defense!

 

Law's blurb on Andujar from last year (Not Ranked in 2017) below:

 

For all the hype Yankees prospects can get -- and all the complaining fans of other teams offer about this -- Andujar has avoided the publicity machine while quietly moving up the chain for the Bombers since he signed as an amateur in 2011.

 

He always has been a good hitter for contact but got a bit stronger and started making better contact in 2017, setting career highs in doubles, homers, and his triple-slash stats without an increase in his strikeout rate.

 

He has a rifle of an arm and has improved his footwork to the point that he should be an average defender at third. Perhaps the lack of hype is because other than the arm, Andujar doesn't really have a plus tool -- he does everything well, but nothing superbly.

 

I think he's no worse than a solid-average regular at third, probably a grade 55 at his peak, hitting around .300 with 15-20 homers, average defense and maybe a lower OBP than you'd like. The Yankees seem inclined to give him a shot to win the third base job this spring, and all signs right now are that he's ready to take it.

 

Fangraph ratings: Hit GamePower RawPower Speed Field Throws Future Value

45 / 55 45 / 55 60 / 60 55 / 50 45 / 55 70 / 70 60

 

Multiple scouts thought Andujar had the tools to be average at 3B. It is possible his terribleness was not tools-related, but poor coaching or just the dude himself. The power was undervalued - although given the juiced major league ball, that seems to be a consistent problem evaluating prospects.

[sk7326]

Aaron Judge rankings entering 2017:

 

Fangraphs 61

Law 44

MLB.com 22

 

Big hesitation on Judge was whether he could make enough contact at the big league level given his issues on that front coming up. Obviously he has.

[OH FOY]

I understand Fans like looking at the Closer to the Major League level talent. But, a kid I saw Pitch in person, and was very impressed was

Alexander Montero, he's my Binky this year in the Minors.

Last year was Denyi Reyes, and I'll keep an eye on him also.

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/bobby-dalbec-denyi-reyes-plow-forth-on-boston-red-sox-farm/c-296965218

[notin]

Reyes might be able to see MLB innings this year...

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Good stuff on top prospect Dalbec:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/02/16/red-sox-power-hitting-prospect-bobby-dalbec-looks-impress-spring-training/w64do8Y6o3LRGNreEpfpKI/story.html

 

Dalbec’s power reminds Cora of his former University of Miami teammate Pat Burrell, who went on to hit 292 homers in the majors.

 

The defense is there, too. Dalbec moves well laterally, is quick to get back on his feet after diving stops, and as you would expect, his arm is strong and precise. On shifts, something the Red Sox have incorporated more of in the minors, Dalbec handles what amounts to shortstop seamlessly.

 

Said Oliver: “When you look at the whole package of what he can do offensively and defensively, you can tolerate the strikeouts. I think he’s come to grips with the idea he’s going to swing and miss quite a bit. But he’s going to learn within that at-bat how to make adjustments.”

 

That’s one of the reasons the Sox invited Dalbec to camp, to get a look at how power hitters such as J.D. Martinez prepare for games.

The Burrell comp is an interesting one--he was a top MLB slugger for a few years. Of course, Burrell was a CO and thus played a less valuable position than Dalbec. Hopefully, Dalbec can develop into a slightly more consistent Pat Burrell with the bat.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

An accurate description of the current Red Sox farm system:

 

“I think we’re in a good spot,” Crockett said. “We’re in a kind of up-and-coming spot right now where I think our some of our highest upside is at the lower levels. And then I think we have a few of the potentially impactful guys at the upper levels as well.”

https://www.greenvilleonline.com/story/sports/baseball/greenville-drive/2019/02/05/greenville-drive-roster-could-include-red-soxs-next-wave-prospects/2765712002/

[notin]

Good stuff on top prospect Dalbec:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/02/16/red-sox-power-hitting-prospect-bobby-dalbec-looks-impress-spring-training/w64do8Y6o3LRGNreEpfpKI/story.html

 

 

The Burrell comp is an interesting one--he was a top MLB slugger for a few years. Of course, Burrell was a CO and thus played a less valuable position than Dalbec. Hopefully, Dalbec can develop into a slightly more consistent Pat Burrell with the bat.

 

Burrell was a third baseman in college but moved from the position because the Phillies had Scott Rolen, who was the reigning NL ROY at the time. He was originally moved to 1b, but settled in the OF. His defensive abilities at third probably weren’t great, but were not the primary reason for moving him, especially since his bat was a fast track to MLB. Rolen was, after all, a defensive standout who was NOT going anywhere at the time...

[bkzwhitestrican]

For anyone interested, MLB has just posted their top 30 prospects by team

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=bos

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=nyy

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Dalbec has amazing power.

https://twitter.com/RedSox/status/1099025343988596736/video/1

[Jack Flap]

Despite how extremely early it is, I like to see Chavis and Dalbec making positive impressions. There was a time not long ago when nary a power bat could be found in our system, but right now we have a few guys with a chance to deliver some serious pop.

[notin]

Despite how extremely early it is, I like to see Chavis and Dalbec making positive impressions. There was a time not long ago when nary a power bat could be found in our system, but right now we have a few guys with a chance to deliver some serious pop.

 

 

As a hitter, I like Chavis better. Not sure where he plays. Dalbec has power but should be trade bait, unless other teams are discouraged by the amount of miss in his swing...

[jacksonianmarch]

Chavis has the higher floor, Dalbec the higher upside, IMO

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Despite how extremely early it is, I like to see Chavis and Dalbec making positive impressions. There was a time not long ago when nary a power bat could be found in our system, but right now we have a few guys with a chance to deliver some serious pop.

 

If necessary, the Red Sox could easily trade one of these guys for a really good relief arm, but I don't think the Red Sox will need to do that with guys like Feltman and Lakins ready to contribute at some point this season. A great quote from Feltman, the future closer of the Red Sox:

 

"[Closers are] definitely a special breed. When I got hurt, our eighth-inning guy had to pitch there, and he told me afterwards that closing is just a little different than setting up. You're riding that border between cockiness and confidence. You have to," he said. "With my game and my stuff, I'm going to dare you to hit it. I've just got to get through that inning, so I'm putting all the cards on the table. I like the chaos around it. It takes a special person, I think, to feel that way. You have to be a little psycho."

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/toolshed-durbin-feltman-aims-at-boston-red-sox-bullpen/c-303645106

 

In addition, the Red Sox can always move an SP prospect to the bullpen if necessary -- 3 candidates: D.Hernandez, T.Houck, and M.Shawaryn. I would continue to develop these guys as SPs, but a short term move to the bullpen wouldn't derail their development.

[Hugh2]

One of these guys are definitely trade bait.

 

I agree with Jacksonians take that Chavis has the higher floor and Dalbec has the higher ceiling, but I don't think there ceilings are that far apart. If Chavis hits enough to play in the majors he has enough power to be a 30 HR guy too.

 

This season has all the makings of trading away a couple top prospects for a late inning reliever come July.

[moonslav59]

Some recent summer deals don't seem like we had to give up too much...

 

2018

Jalen Beeks for Eovaldi

 

Santiago Espinal for Steve Pearce

 

2017

GBautista, JCallhan & SNogosek for Addison Reed

 

SAnderson & GSantos for Eduardo Nunez

 

I'm not sure we'll have to trade Chavis, Dalbec or any or out top prospects to get what we need this summer.

 

With Pearce and Moreland's contracts expiring after this year, and JD's opt out coming up, we may need both Chavis and Dalbec, at least until we learn more about Casas and Chatham.

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

It depends on what you want. Eovaldi was a post TJS starter with okay results in TB. Pearce was a 35 yr old platoon 1b. If you want the best talent available, you will need to pay top prospect dollar.

[notin]

It depends on what you want. Eovaldi was a post TJS starter with okay results in TB. Pearce was a 35 yr old platoon 1b. If you want the best talent available, you will need to pay top prospect dollar.

 

 

Yes we get that Jose Abreu or Paul Goldschmidt might break the bank. We’re operating on the assumption he won’t be the Red Sox most pressing need. And in the past few years, the Sox needs have been supplementary players who don’t cost top prospect talent.

 

The real question is - what will the Yankees do? Since Cashman would rather watch the Yankee season end prematurely rather than wait and learn some of his prospects might not be as good as he thought...

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes we get that Jose Abreu or Paul Goldschmidt might break the bank. We’re operating on the assumption he won’t be the Red Sox most pressing need. And in the past few years, the Sox needs have been supplementary players who don’t cost top prospect talent.

 

The real question is - what will the Yankees do? Since Cashman would rather watch the Yankee season end prematurely rather than wait and learn some of his prospects might not be as good as he thought...

 

I am not sure what Cashman will do. One thing I entirely trust Cashman with is his trading off of prospect assets. He is very rarely wrong. The only recent example would be Widener and Solak for Drury, even though he spun Drury off for Happ and we hung onto him, so no huge loss. Most of Cash's deals where he trades prospects for players turn out right in his favor. Right now, our rotation is a need depending on the health of Severino. CC's health is only needed for the first half as Montgomery is expected to be back, and he is better than CC when healthy. If Sevy is injured more than he lets on and he misses the year or returns in a dim fashion, then we will need something more than a back end starter, we will need to try and pry Bumgarner or Wheeler and get someone who can slot into the top half of a rotation. For right now, Cash is kicking the tires on Gio Gonzalez, but I would rather we wait. We have arms with promise who will be better than a washed up veteran who will miss the first few weeks anyways building up stamina.

 

The upside here is that Sevy returns healthy and since he misses the first month plus, he doesn't swoon like he has the last 2 seasons. The downside is his cuff is torn and he is gone, never to return the same way again. Such is the life of a pitcher. One pitch can forever alter your career. I am intrigued to see how German does in the rotation the second time around. His stuff was electric, but he missed in the zone too often. He has been lights out this spring, but as always, that is taken with a grain of salt. I am intrigued by what he might bring with a little more experience and a first time failing. I understand why Cessa is the likeliest guy for the rotation out of ST instead of Loaisiga, although I think Loaisiga has better stuff and location and the long term much better upside. On the offensive side, we don't need much at all. Bird seems healthy and Voit has continued to crush balls to RF, which served him really well in a Yankee uniform.

[moonslav59]

My Pre-Season Top 10

 

1. D Hernandez

2. M Chavis

3. T Casas

4. B Dalbec

5. B. Mata

6. D. Feltman

7. J Groome

8. A Flores

9. D Diaz

T10. T Houck & CJ Chatham

 

Edited April 13, 2019 by moonslav59

[notin]

I’m hesitant to put Groome anywhere until he actually pitches. He should be in the top ten, but right now he’s just another injured pitcher who hasn’t done anything...

[moonslav59]

I’m hesitant to put Groome anywhere until he actually pitches. He should be in the top ten, but right now he’s just another injured pitcher who hasn’t done anything...

 

I moved him down from where others have him, but I agree with your point.

 

I really like Mata, too, so switch 'em.

[mvp 78]

This is where I was in Jan:

 

Casas

Hernandez

Chavis

Flores

Dalbec

Decker

Houck

Feltman

Groome

Lakins

 

Now:

Hernandez

Casas

Chavis

Dalbec

Flores

Decker

Houck

Feltman

Lakins

Groome

 

I'm just not a believer in Mata.

[notin]

This is the year for Alex Scherff and Nick Decker to break out in the minors...

[mvp 78]

This is the year for Alex Scherff and Nick Decker to break out in the minors...

 

This org really needs one of its starters to break out.