The Pen

[notin]

Getting near the bottom of the barrell.

 

 

Nowhere near the bottom of the barrel. But getting harder to find actual impact relievers...

[Slasher9]

We'd all like a better pen, but we have as much or better chance of winning this year than anyone else.

 

It's hard to criticize a GM or management team for that, despite still having one area of apparent weakness.

 

Plus, the winter is not over. Let's reserve judgement until it is.

 

some people expect high paid all stars at every position.

[harmony]

From today's chat with FanGraphs managing editor Jeff Sullivan:

torg

9:51 Is Boston seriously going into the season with no major bullpen adds?

Jeff Sullivan

9:51 Not a big fan of Erasmo Ramirez?

9:53 They'll do something. I still expect them to be the last team in contact with Kimbrel. But maybe they'll take a one-year chance on Greg Holland and then revisit around the deadline. The bullpen they start with doesn't have to be the bullpen they finish with

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-1-18-19/

[jacksonianmarch]

The point is well taken, the pen you start with doesn’t have to be the pen you finish with. But it’s not like the Sox are in the AL Central and can reign supreme. They’re in a division with a 100 game and a 90+ game winner. Any drop off from stalwarts, even to mere mortal levels, would be absolutely crippling. Add to that the increased loss of leads, which will happen with the pen as constructed, and you’re talking about falling back to the pack or being surpassed. The Rays got better this offseason. The Yanks got better this offseason. If you’re not improving, you’re falling behind.

[Slasher9]

back to back to back to back

it is what it is until proven otherwise.

perhaps we just win all our games 10-9........

 

"wait til next year"

"our pen is better"

[TylerD]

We are the champions. That gives us the right to be confident, maybe even cocky. However, there is also reality . The reality is that the bullpen is very important in baseball today. And it certainly seems to me that our bullpen is not up to par and is pretty much being ignored by management. That is playing with fire . We have a great team . Do we want to take the chance of wasting it by blowing games late ? To me , waiting to see what is needed at mid season is not a very good plan.

 

There is some truth to that I agree. Sometimes though it happens that way. The coaching staff might think with the players we have we can be competitive so might not be reason to make any huge trades. Not saying that’s the case but it’s how things unfold sometimes. Until you hit the mid way point in the season and realize “oh we should do something, the relief pitching is brutal” I’m thankful we have a team as talented as we do that will allow us (hopefully) to work out some kinks we may have.

[TylerD]

Skankees are doing everything to surpass us next season. Are we gonna doing anything?

 

We still have a lot of strong pieces to compete and maybe even repeat this season. The Yankees will be very tough competition as they always are. Should be a good battle in the division. Yankees at times made it ridiculous close to who would win the division. I don't rule Tampa out either to be a huge pain in the ass.

[S5Dewey]

The point is well taken, the pen you start with doesn’t have to be the pen you finish with. But it’s not like the Sox are in the AL Central and can reign supreme. They’re in a division with a 100 game and a 90+ game winner. Any drop off from stalwarts, even to mere mortal levels, would be absolutely crippling. Add to that the increased loss of leads, which will happen with the pen as constructed, and you’re talking about falling back to the pack or being surpassed. The Rays got better this offseason. The Yanks got better this offseason. If you’re not improving, you’re falling behind.

 

I'm sure we all appreciate your concern about the Boston Red Sox 2019 season. I think we all know that the 2019 New York Yankees have no weaknesses and are going to be the very best team of all time. Of course, according to "a certain poster" so were the 2018 Yankees at this time last year, but that's another story.

 

Here are the odds to win the 2018 WS set by MLB on November 1, 2017

1) Dodgers, 5-1

2) Guardians, 6-1

3) Houston, 6-1

4) Washington, 7-1

5) Yankees, 8-1 (and I assume favored to win their division)

6) Red Sox, 10-1

7) Cubbies, also 10-1

8) Mets, 20-1

9) DBax, 20-1

10) Cards, 20-1

 

It's a bit early to be blowing one's horn about how good their team is. A lot will happen between now and next October, but here's what I'd bet on. The Red Sox will make the playoffs. After that, who knows? Right now Vegas has the Sox to win it again, followed by the Astro's, the Dodgers and the Yankees (4th) in honorable mention.

[Bellhorn04]

back to back to back to back

it is what it is until proven otherwise.

perhaps we just win all our games 10-9........

 

"wait til next year"

"our pen is better"

 

What do you think of my new signature line?

[moonslav59]

some people expect high paid all stars at every position.

 

Lord knows we paid big to fill a lot of key slots.

 

I'm not going to complain, if we have a pen that's about average.

 

It looks like we might out spend everyone again this year, so I don't get the spend more argument.

[dgalehouse]

Wife , " Honey , the furnace is not working. We need to get it fixed or maybe get a new one . Its getting cold in here ". Husband , " We don't have the money for that . We have to make do with what we have . Put on a sweater and light the oven. That should get us through some of the winter . And , don't blame me . I spent plenty on this house already . New carpets , two new T.V. s , dishwasher , deck furniture, dining room set and more . And the taxes are due . You can't have everything you know ."

[notin]

I'm sure we all appreciate your concern about the Boston Red Sox 2019 season. I think we all know that the 2019 New York Yankees have no weaknesses and are going to be the very best team of all time. Of course, according to "a certain poster" so were the 2018 Yankees at this time last year, but that's another story.

 

Here are the odds to win the 2018 WS set by MLB on November 1, 2017

1) Dodgers, 5-1

2) Guardians, 6-1

3) Houston, 6-1

4) Washington, 7-1

5) Yankees, 8-1 (and I assume favored to win their division)

6) Red Sox, 10-1

7) Cubbies, also 10-1

8) Mets, 20-1

9) DBax, 20-1

10) Cards, 20-1

 

It's a bit early to be blowing one's horn about how good their team is. A lot will happen between now and next October, but here's what I'd bet on. The Red Sox will make the playoffs. After that, who knows? Right now Vegas has the Sox to win it again, followed by the Astro's, the Dodgers and the Yankees (4th) in honorable mention.

 

 

I know a lot of it is influenced by betting action, but you’d think the Guardians would be at least inside the top 4 for 2019. There is no surer bet in baseball right now for making the postseason.

 

Once the season starts, their Magic Number is 82...

[Bellhorn04]

Wife , " Honey , the furnace is not working. We need to get it fixed or maybe get a new one . Its getting cold in here ". Husband , " We don't have the money for that . We have to make do with what we have . Put on a sweater and light the oven. That should get us through some of the winter . And , don't blame me . I spent plenty on this house already . New carpets , two new T.V. s , dishwasher , deck furniture, dining room set and more . And the taxes are due . You can't have everything you know ."

 

Within a day or two, the wife has sold some of the surplus goodies online, and ordered a new furnace with manageable monthly payments.

[notin]

Within a day or two, the wife has sold some of the surplus goodies online, and ordered a new furnace with manageable monthly payments.

 

 

Could the wife also keep herself warm by taking extra batting practice in order to have larger leads and be less dependent on her bullpen?

[dgalehouse]

The New England Patriots have announced , prior to defending their AFC title , that they have released placekicker Stephen Gostkowski, and replaced him with yet another wide receiver. Belichick said , " The plan is to build a big enough lead that a kicker is not necessary. Besides , Gronk can always boot a short field goal if need be. "

[Bellhorn04]

The New England Patriots have announced , prior to defending their AFC title , that they have released placekicker Stephen Gostkowski, and replaced him with yet another wide receiver. Belichick said , " The plan is to build a big enough lead that a kicker is not necessary. Besides , Gronk can always boot a short field goal if need be. "

 

You're a maestro of metaphor!

[dgalehouse]

You're a maestro of metaphor!

 

Maestro of metaphor. I like that .

[TylerD]

The New England Patriots have announced , prior to defending their AFC title , that they have released placekicker Stephen Gostkowski, and replaced him with yet another wide receiver. Belichick said , " The plan is to build a big enough lead that a kicker is not necessary. Besides , Gronk can always boot a short field goal if need be. "

Lol sounds logical!

[Kimmi]

the importance of the pen would be diminished if teams could get enough starters to average 6IP/start.

 

I would rather have a great rotation and a mediocre pen than a mediocre rotation and a strong pen.

[Kimmi]

Reminds me of last year's unbeatable, best-ever Yankee pen.

 

Bring it on!

 

^^This.

[Kimmi]

I get not wanting to commit to guys like Robertson and Ottavino into 2020 and 2021, but getting Cody Allen on a one-year deal sounds like great value. If we're not in on that, maybe the plan is just to roll with Barnes, Brasier, and company after all...

 

I agree. I may have to prepare myself to be shocked!

[Kimmi]

Red Sox 2019 bullpen = Dave's Big Dare?

 

Dave may be taking a risk after all.

[Kimmi]

We'd all like a better pen, but we have as much or better chance of winning this year than anyone else.

 

It's hard to criticize a GM or management team for that, despite still having one area of apparent weakness.

 

Plus, the winter is not over. Let's reserve judgement until it is.

 

I am not the least bit concerned.

[notin]

The New England Patriots have announced , prior to defending their AFC title , that they have released placekicker Stephen Gostkowski, and replaced him with yet another wide receiver. Belichick said , " The plan is to build a big enough lead that a kicker is not necessary. Besides , Gronk can always boot a short field goal if need be. "

 

 

Email Dombrowski with your bullpen concerns. At the very least, I would have signed Cody Allen...

[dgalehouse]

After our last world championship in 2013 , the off season was extremely quiet and uneventful . It sure looked like a case of resting on laurels . The result speaks for itself . The team faded . Two straight cellar finishes. Eventually it , at least indirectly , cost Cherington his job . Then things changed for the better . Success ensued , with another world championship last season . So far this off season has been extremely quiet and uneventful . Sure looks like a case of resting on laurels . At least we don't have to worry about finishing in the cellar this time . But can we win the division for a fourth straight time ? That is the question .

[jacksonianmarch]

This is different dgale. 2013 was never supposed to happen. Everyone had career years and they stunned on their way to the title. Once everyone returned to their norms or worse, the slipper fell off.

 

2018 was a loaded squad. Yes, some guys had career seasons. As a matter of fact, your 3 best hitters had either their best or second best year of their careers. But for the most part, the Sox were the best team money could buy. 2013 was a bargain basement dive. 2018 was a trip down Newbury St. Big difference. Where the 2014 Sox and 2019 Sox digress is attitude. Henry and Lucchino scoffed at the big spenders and then they fell back to the basement effectively refusing to improve on a very flawed team, even though they had the funds to do so. The 2019 team is seeing some fall off due to the loss of the pen, but you’re going up against the real threshold that has already hit your squad. If you have no first round pick two years in a row (effectively your first rounder will be a late comp, early 2nd rounder) then that significantly impacts the team you will put on the field in a few seasons. The penalties aren’t just cash. So I get that DD can only spend so much. That being said, I’m surprised he would have fleshed our the short end of a 1b platoon and your #5 starter spot while also leaving the back end of the pen blown open. This is crazy to me. If he only had $23 mil AAV to play with this year, I figured he’d grab a reliever and a starter (cheaper than Eovaldi) and use Chavis as the RH complement. Either that or deal off a guy like Vasquez or Nunez to generate some capital. Instead, it’s the same band back again without the back end of the pen. Big hole to leave open. And up until last year, DD’s biggest bugaboos have been his pens....

Edited January 19, 2019 by jacksonianmarch

[jacksonianmarch]

I entirely forgot to include Thornburg. Let's look at him.

 

2018 stats 24IP 5.63ERA 6.04FIP 7.9K/9IP 3.8BB/9IP 2.25HR/9IP

 

Tyler Thornburg is likely the worst trade of DD's Boston tenure. Shaw looks like a star and the prospect dealt looks like he's gonna be good too. Thornburg comes over and immediately goes down with the pitcher's deathknell, TOS. He comes back giving up homeruns at a prolific rate. He loses over 1mph on his fastball off his gravy season in Milwaukee. If he doesn't regain that velocity, he is done. Relying on him is silly.

[moonslav59]

This is different dgale. 2013 was never supposed to happen. Everyone had career years and they stunned on their way to the title. Once everyone returned to their norms or worse, the slipper fell off.

 

Totally wrong. Many players had better years the year before or after.

 

Here's a list of the 2013 Sox players in order of PAs and IP:

 

PA Player OPS (Career)

724 Pedey .787 (not even close to his career year- his 6 previous years were all better and he topped .787 twice afterwards)

636 Ellsbury .781 (not even close to his .928 OPS 2 years earlier)

600 D Ortiz .959 (not even close: 6 better before- 1 better after)

578 Napoli .842 (was better or equal 3 other seasons)

536 DNava .831 *** CAREER BEST***

532 S Vic .801 (Had two better and one .002 lower.)

501 SDrew .777 (Had 3 better.)

470 Salty .804 ***CAREER BEST***

374 Middy .696 (was .139 points hbigher in 2012)

366 Gomes .771 (was almost 100 better in '12 & had 3 other better ones.

 

IP Pitcher ERA (Career)

213 Lester 3.75 (Has had 8 better seasons!!!)

189 Lackey 3.52 (Had 2 better before & 2 after)

171 Demps 4.57 (Not even close)

162 Douby 4.32 ***CAREER BEST***

108 Buch 1.74 (Maybe second best, despite low IP)

65 Peavy 4.04 (Not even close.)

 

IP Pitcher WHIP

74 Uehara 0.565 (***CAREER BEST***)

68 Tazawa 1.200 (Not even close.)

60 Breslow 1.160 (nope)

42 Workman 1.416 (Nope)

37 Aceves 1.730 (Maybe his worst)

 

In what universe is 4 players "everyone?" Only Uehara had a major role.''

 

I'm sick of this myth being repeated so often.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Victorino's WAR was 4.7. Second best of his entire career

Ellsbury WAR was 4.6. Second best of his entire career

Napoli's WAR was 3.4. Second best of his entire career

Nava's WAR was 2.7. Career best by 0.3

Drew's WAR was 3.6. Second best of his entire career

Salty's WAR was 3.5. Career best BY FAR

Pedroia's WAR was 4.8. Surprisingly, 3rd best of his entire career

Gomes WAR was 1.5. Even in a part time role, was 3rd best in his career

Doubront's WAR was 2.2. This is almost 2/3 his career and clearly a career best

Buchholz WAR was 2.8 in half a season. 3rd best in his career

Uehara's WAR was 3.1. Easily the best of his career.

 

You had 4 guys with career seasons. You had 4 guys with their second best season. You had 3 guys with their third best season. When you consider that you had ELEVEN players having their 1-3 best years of their careers in the SAME SEASON then you can say the team got a bit lucky. Especially when those seasons were accomplished by 4 players who were either late prime or older

[moonslav59]

Victorino's WAR was 4.7. Second best of his entire career

Ellsbury WAR was 4.6. Second best of his entire career

Napoli's WAR was 3.4. Second best of his entire career

Nava's WAR was 2.7. Career best by 0.3

Drew's WAR was 3.6. Second best of his entire career

Salty's WAR was 3.5. Career best BY FAR

Pedroia's WAR was 4.8. Surprisingly, 3rd best of his entire career

Gomes WAR was 1.5. Even in a part time role, was 3rd best in his career

Doubront's WAR was 2.2. This is almost 2/3 his career and clearly a career best

Buchholz WAR was 2.8 in half a season. 3rd best in his career

Uehara's WAR was 3.1. Easily the best of his career.

 

You had 4 guys with career seasons. You had 4 guys with their second best season. You had 3 guys with their third best season. When you consider that you had ELEVEN players having their 1-3 best years of their careers in the SAME SEASON then you can say the team got a bit lucky. Especially when those seasons were accomplished by 4 players who were either late prime or older

 

Nice goalpost move, but you are still dead wrong.

 

A few guys had very good seasons. Whoop-dee-freakin-doo, our 10th highest PA guy (Gomes) had his 3rd best career year and that's part of your equation? LMAO! Salty lost his job in the playoffs- that's another "career best". Drew & Nava did have career or near career years, but they were not big parts of the team. (Nava was benched the the playoffs, too.)

 

The 2 starters on your list had 270 IP combined. 11 or more players had some of their worst or subpar seasons-- Lester, Dempster, Peavy, Tazawa, Aceves, Workman, Bailey, Hanrahan, Webster, Mortenson, Alex Wilson and others all had seasons nearer their worst than their best.